Cheltenham Festival
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5/2 Sizing Europe?
5/2 Sizing Europe?
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I reckon that performance will sort out the QM
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certainly has.
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Yeah, cheers harry, budd and stront.
Didn't back him today but took a chance on the 9/4 QM before the race today on the back of your posts. That 50/1 bet for all four repeat winners gets better by the day as well!! |
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well done pal nice edge...
I have to say there is definitely a case for him being odds on now?? imo Thought he should of been 5-4 pre race then after that dismantling of big zeb am finding even harder to oppose him... what a bet this fellow is, its just lovely... there is still value there as well...can't believe it...should be 4-6 Have you got the 50's on all 4 then well chief???lovely stuff  |
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Well done backers! He was sensational today and anyone with 5/2 or more is laughing.
Just a final word of caution from me and then I will let my probably misguided opinion drop on this one! For all that he was superb today, Big Zeb wasn't. Jockey thought he was beaten before the first and it looked from a long way out as though he wasn't really travelling, and his jumping was not as good as it normally is either. In addition, I completely understand that I'm in the minority here in being a Finian's fan, but Sizing has still never run against him. Am not trying to argue for one second that it is a worry on it's own, but I have been stung many times before with horses beating the same rivals again and again and using those formlines as cast iron. To have written off Big Zeb and decided Sizing should now be odds-on on the back of that, you'd have to believe Big Zeb ran his race. To me it either looked like he didn't or that he is rapidly declining (which could be the case at 11). Either way, I still don't think Sizing is home and hosed in the QM quite yet! |
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Tom they jump the 2nd last today in unison then SE ran away from him. Agreed the jock did give it up after the last but so did Lynch. He was well worth 10L. If he reproduces that performance in the QM, he will will by at least 5.
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You are very probably right and again, I'm not knocking a great performance. I just feel Big Zeb was never really in the hunt today (always looked to be working hard to keep tabs on Sizing) and still, from somewhere, harbour this idea that Finian's has a say in it yet! Probably just failing to smell the coffee...
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I may have had my pesamistic head on when watching, but I thought BZ was travelling best about 4 furlongs out
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Lol tom...fair play you are fighting your horses corner...and rightly so...
I have to say today - that although Big Zeb may have run below what was hoped and expected I thought it was more that sizing took him out of his comfort zone going a real good gallop the whole way.... My reasoning behind thinking he should be odds on is is there any way back for big zeb??? and in which case finians would seemingly be his only real danger...to be a bookmaker eh He is looking an even better horse than last year and is reaching his peak...where as big zeb is just starting to regress in ability, either way it is going to take a fall or massive improvement from any of opponents to upset him, he really is looking a complete and super race horse now...imvho... lets hope finians improves and finishes a close second tom just to prove you were right |
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Totally agree Harry
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I've said on the "Who wins the Queen Mother" thread a couple of weeks ago that I really fancied dutching Sizing Europe and Big Zeb at Evens (at the time SE was 9/4 and BZ was 9/2).
However, I went off Big Zeb after Noble Prince was beaten by Blazing Tempo. Trial or no trial, Noble Prince (who had been running Big Zeb to a length) should be beating Blazing Tempo, so that defeat rang alarm bells for me re Big Zebs chances. Also, Forpady also really let the form down when he was smashed by Somersby and Finians. I think maybe Big Zeb could be have been flattered by his narrow wins against Noble Prince and Forpady? I still think he is place material in the Champion Chase, but something will have to improve a good few pounds to get near SE. |
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Ladcrooks non runner no bet standout price at 6/4. Surely that'll go soon...?
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Anyone would think they would of had enough peddlers....
but we will happily lend them some more cash... |
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Do you think he'll be mcuh shorter on the day Peddlers? I dont tbh.
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what price do you think he will be on the day catch me pal??
or what price do you think he should be?? sorry 2 questions |
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If Hurricane Fly and Quevega win on day 1 - Sizing will go off odds on imo
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I think he'll be no shorter than 5/4 Harry. Probably 11/8! Its very rare horses are smashed into odds on at the Festival imo.
If HF and Quevega win, I think they'll try and get the next couple of shorties... SE included. |
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probably will go off odds on no matter what but if there are a few I rish winners before hand then he could get hammered
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I would prob say evens, a shade of odds on. They will be some layers who want to get it beat.
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Spot on Ped
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 Hope somebody else took that 5/2. What A Horse. 6/4 now with the same firm. |
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Definitely evens or odds on if the race was today, but a month is plenty of time for a horse to get sick or go lame. That is the biggest risk of taking a short price ante post.
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I think he will def be odds on. I think the race will cut up, 5 or 6 at most. In fact, after yesterday, I can't see Big Zeb coming over. If he gets demolished by 15L on his favoured heavy ground, why come over when it will be no worse than g/soft. at best 4/5. SE, FR, Gauvain, ODN, ISTB, Pady?
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Took home 68k for 2nd place last year...
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Willie - I agree it'll be a small field. Not sure about Pady yet, but it does look lke they might be going for the QM with Gauvain. Hold Fast must be a possible (Nicholl's most likley runner anyway). Nacarat is still a fascinating entry. Who knows where Somersby will run?
I disagree though that Big Zeb favours heavy ground - I'd say it's more to his taste than to Sizing's, but both are good ground horses. BZ has come first and second in the Champion chase on good ground after all. He's just run most of his races in ireland and they are almost always on Yielding or worse so he has form on that ground. |
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Plus trainer said BZ never really travelled and did not run his race,and watching the race it certainly looked the case to me.
He will be at Cheltenham,pretty sure of that,and back on decent ground i think hes still a threat,although i would be surprised if he beat SE,but just never know,and given his record in the race surely he has to give it a go. |
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ladbrokes until last month was offering 110/1 for all 4 champions to retain crown,which looks like value now
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Just relieved stan james of some of their 7/1 on offer on BZ as agreed does look like cutting up badly and to me, he did not run his race on Sunday and was heavily eased after the last. He is a better than 90% cert to make it over to cheltenham for this and 7/1 in a race thats looking more and more likely to be a small field 3 places cannot imo be ignored!
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no more 6-4 available
still - now we can have a go at the 5-4...still good value... |
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Yep missed the 6/4 myself, night shift does that to you i guess, though relieved stan james also of a small interest at 5/4 this afternoon as well as the above. I wont have my full bet on him until the day as i cannot believe he will be odds on up until the point the course boys open up and the first show comes through, where as i believe he will go off a shade of odds on sp wise, i do think that whether the irish have a couple of winners on the Tues or not, the likes of hills/lads will dangle carrots in the morning of the 14th March and although i think the week before when the firms start firming up for nrnb, he will be made available at around 11/10 6/5 area in the morning with happy hours etc etc. How big the carrot will be, of course depends on whether Quevega/Fly win on the Tues, if they both win, the carrot will be at its biggest so more chance of 6/5 5/4!
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Guys SE is still 6/4 with sports spread ireland.
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thedemps - interesting. I haven't heard Nicholls say anthing to make me think Kauto Stone will go for the QMCC - have you? It's all been talk about the Ryanair, but he could change his mind as it looks like the QM might cut up. That said, after the way SE thrashed KS in the Tingle Creek I'd be surprised if the result were different. SE was very, very impressive that day. I agree with you Hold Fast might end up in the Grand Annual but I'd be surprised if Nicholls does not have a runner in the Champion Chase.
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Cant have trainers putting horses in a race just to have a runner!!
Should be in the race it has the realistic chance of winning.KS cannot beat SE,but he could win the Ryannair. As an owner thats what i would expect from my trainer,unless it was ME that wanted to do that. |
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Trainer might see it very differently though Budd, especially if it suits him to do so:) Could easily be selling it to the owner that the Ryanair is so hot he could run really well yet maybe only finish 4th, while the CC is so lacking in depth that 10L behind SE might be enough for 2nd place.
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yes there is serious money for second place in the Queen Mum and the Ryan Air is really deep
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Yeh,guess its down to what you want for your horse.
Personally i would want my trainer to put it in the race it has the best chance of winning.Particularly at the Festival. Point i am making really is a horse should not run in a race if its cos the trainer dont have a runner otherwise. |
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Budd - I was thinking more about Hold Fast than Kauto Stone. It's fairly clear Hold Fast will run over 2 m, so the question is whether to go for the hot handicap or the small field graded race. I agree Kauto Stone should go for the race over the more suitable trip which he has a chance in - the Ryanair. If you take his form with Sizing Europe at face value he must have a good chance.
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Agree budd, I was just showing how easily the trainer might justify recommending otherwise if he chose to do so.
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Ok,fair enough lads.
Guess we all agree then  |