Cheltenham Festival
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Might be worth waiting until Sunday? He could well get beaten by Big Zeb - his prep race for Chelts was rubbish last year - and his price lengthen. In which case, fill yer boots.
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He won't lose to Big Zeb (I think that one is regressing) SE's run in the Tingle Creek shows he is on a different level to his rivals in this sphere, 5/2 looks a steal.
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Sizing is my nap of the Festival - but he seems to be extremely good on the big days (QMCC, Tingle Creek) and pretty ordinary on the small/prep days.
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I agree Stront, irrelevant what happens Sunday and Big Zeb is odds on. This is a prep for the big day. Can't see him lengthening in price though if he does get beat, bookies know.
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He'll be no more than 7/4 for the QM if he does win.
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Disagree FJC. If he wins on Sunday he will be no bigger than 6-4 but more likely to be about levels. He got well stuffed in this last year before winning the race that mattered
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That's it confirmed so WTM, I'm taking all the 5/2 available. Can make my book green if he wins easily.
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Quite right too FJC. GL. I got enough on, albeit at 2s with badbrokes
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What really did Sandown tell us about Sizing Europe that justifys his odds for the Champion Chase that we didn't already know? He beat Kauto Stone who judged on what we have seen so far needs further and softer ground and Cornas who is exposed in graded company and rated 153 some 24lb inferior to Sizing Europe.
I have plenty of respect for any horse who has won at two Previous festivals and this years Champion Chase is very hard for me to get a value angle on to recommend backing anything else at the current prices but for me at the prices Sizing is a no bet |
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Your opinion MC, but my view is what "can" beat it. Nothing I have seen this season suggests any of last years novices. That leaves me with the horses it beat last year, with the exeption of BZ. He had no excuses last year. SE did it the hard way, from the front and won well. If there is good in the going description, I reckon SE will be no bigger than evens
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As i have said at the moment i am struggling to get an angle into the race from a betting point of view.
Only Moscow Flyer has managed to win this since the 1970's at the age of above 9 but as you point out what beats him?Big Zeb at 11 isn't surely getting any better,Finians Rainbow was the second best novice from last year but probably has to step forward on what we've seen as of yet(though this isn't out of the question),Realt Dubh will more than likely need further than this and we are yet to see him this year so his wellbeing has to be taken on trust,somersby seems to being aimed towards the Ryanair(though if he were to go down the two mile route he should not be underestimated) and that leaves little else. |
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sounds like youve just found your angle
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Well interesting Magic carpet...
Without cutting you down to much for making a serious error... but Martha's Son won in 1997 and One Man the following year and also Moscow at the age of eleven so don't think age is an issue and if you think questioning beating the 162 rated Kauto Stone 8 lengths and Cornas who loves the track having finishing second in a grade 2 novice, won a handicap off of 148 and finished 3rd in a celebration chase on unfavorable ground 13 lengths was a questionable performance I think maybe its time to reevaluate how you have read the race because for me after having a tough start to the season he showed himself to be as good as ever and sandown was a top class performance...also I'msinging the blues beaten 16 lengths has since gone close in top grade handicap company since off of 152... How can anyone be struggling to get an angle into this race???? I'm astounded it doesn't get any better?? Finians looks to need to find in the region of 7-8lbs to be competitive against him and Big Zeb for me doesn't look as good as he was, just on the form book and the others cannot win surely?? This race provides the punter with an awesome 9-4 shot because strictly on the form book he is a 5-4 shot imo There are people prepared to take 9-4 on Sprinter Sacre in an ultra competitive Arkle and you get this price about a horse who is pounds better than his opposition... What a cracking bet  |
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yes indeed likely 170 to 174 performance at Cheltenham and there are few that can dream of matching that
as I said earlier, if you watch last years Queen Mum he absolutely bounds up the hill |
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Must have had a bit too much magic potion Harry!i stand corrected you are quite right about both One Man and Marthas son both winning the champion chase as 10 year olds.Maybe you and many others are spot on about Sizing Europe and maybe i might be missing out on something that is blindingly obvious but it was just my perception of the Tingle Creek.Sizing Europe could as you say represent cracking value but its all about what price you as a backer are prepared to take,i haven't backed or layed anything in the race but nobody would Begrudge a win for Sizing Europe more than myself.All the best of luck to all
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*would not begrudge
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Well fair play pal...good stuff that potion!!
But have to say I'm not a person that likes to back a short one but for me this horse is a cracking 9-4 shot and should be 6-4 today never mind 9-4...and he will be a worthy 11-8 shot on the day and I will probably take that as well... You normally begrudge a horse when he deserves a change of luck and sizing won't need any luck to win this... From a handicapping point of view he has upwards of 5lbs in hand and when you know he has the beating of the opposition this is when you have a really good bet...obviously the horse will have to be at 100% on the day but his trainer is top draw at getting them ready and I for one fully expect him to do the business easily... |
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I'm with you Harry about not backing shorties - in fact I mostly try to lay them
won't be laying this fella though, unless it's at 1.1 or less in running |
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The guys are right Magic,hes only to repeat last year,or even be slightly below that to win.
Hes shown to be in good shape this season and only Big Zeb is close enough to him to threaten. Big Zeb wont be any beter than last season where he ran his race and still got well beat. SE is by far the best value out of all the favs imo. |
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Agree that he is the best value of the big race favourites (I think Quevega at Evs is better), but really think people are being too quick in writing off Finian's Rainbow.
He does not have to step up quite as much as some are making out and has always looked to have real class. If the tactics are right on the day and he finds 6-7lb, which is perfectly possible as he is unexposed over fences in my opinion, he is a big player. |
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Want to point out that I think Sizing Europe is a star, and I've always thought as much. Just think the bare form of his Queen Mother win is not quite as high as the handicapper rates it. I don't think Somersby or one or two of the others ran their races, which means Big Zeb is the marker. Again, depends how highly you rate him (and Sizing) but I will never think either of them are anywhere near the likes of Moscow Flyer and Azertyuiop.
The Sizing Europe/Big Zeb power axis has been established by beating inferior rivals, and usually the same ones again and again, which to me means there is a danger in writing off others that they have yet to face. For what it's worth, I also think Somersby has the ability to go close but his talent for rooting one of the third or second last fences, plus the downhill run at Cheltenham when they quicken and he hits a flat spot, means the two-mile trip at this track is not really made to suit him. Don't underestimate the Rainbow, gold hunters! |
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Ive just Watched last years race again Tom,for the umpteenth time!!and i am still well impressed.
You say SE and BZ are not anywhere near MF and Azert,i aint so sure mate. BZ has now put in 2 Pretty much foot perfect performances in the QM,and last year he got well beat by SE who was right up with the pace all the way and jumped superb and quickened away from the front. Right up there with the best QM performances in my book. From what ive seen of FR,i really cannot see him troubling BZ let alone SE. Just dont think he has it in him to finish the race well enough. |
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Dont forget mate,we are talking about an Arkle winner whose gone on to win the QM,and barring injury would have hosed up in the Champion Hurdle.
Thats bl00dy impressive. |
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Bud, I agree that Sizing was very impressive last year and I'm certainly not knocking him. Just feel that beating the likes of Captain Cee Bee by nine lengths, and French Opera by fifteen does not make the bare merit of the performance all that wonderful.
I do think he is the likely winner and I think he is a very good horse. My gut just tells me that Moscow and Azertyuiop would have beaten him with a fair whack in hand. Like I say, I feel that Finian's needs to find 6-7lb but that is entirely possible. Slightly worried about his ability to see out the trip but in my humble opinion, the usually impeccable Geraghty gave him a so-so ride in the Arkle and again in the Victor Chandler. I think his cruising speed and initial turn of foot are two weapons that compliment his jumping well, and if they light him up coming down the hill this time I think he might nick enough to hold on. I think he's too big at the prices right now anyway, and for me he is a great trends horse (for the aforementioned reason of Geraghty not kicking on soon enough in the Arkle I actually have him as the moral winner of that race). |
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Not having the would haves and could haves about the Champion Hurdle. He was too inexperienced at the time to be a likely winner, was only his 11th start under rules, and he would probably have been outbattled up the hill at that stage in his development. His best hurdles form revolved around beating, and losing to, an 11 year old. Not really Champion form in retrospect. He is better over fences. Not a great champion IMO but a very good one. His age doesn't worry me as he is still lightly raced with only 14 chases to date. The only other lightly raced high percentage chase winner in the race is Finians Rainbow and he is looking more and more like a short runner after being outstayed in the Arkle and overhauled in the Victor Chandler. I know he finished strongly when winning at Kempton but it was a very slowly run race on a sharp track. So agree that SE is value if you can get 5/2.
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Well say what you like but he was cantering all over them when he went wrong in the CH.We dont know what would have happened of course,but certainly looked like he would win,and he has no problem staying further.
Firmly belive we could well be talking about A CH,Arkle and QM winner,aint many if any that have done that. Still not given the credit he deserves imo |
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SE has always put in great performances as Cheltenham ,and has impressed me at every festival and is a very worthy fav at the moment.
However....he is prone to throw in a bit of a stinker every now and then and that puts me off taking a short price. I remember when Captain Cee Bee spanked him when he fell at the last, when Rubi Light was all over him, when he was put in his place by Big Zeb in the Tied Cottage etc. I know you are all going to say that was the wrong trip, the wrong time of year, the wrong ground etc and they are all valid points. It's just always there in the back of my mind that he can sometimes look vulnerable, and just stops me taking a short price. |
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He wasn't cantering, he was going marginally the best but then IME the horse that is going best at that stage rarely wins any fast run Cheltenham. Good chance Starluck will be going best at that stage this year, do you think he will win?
He will get credit as an Irish Champion Hurdler that won the Arkle and quite possibly 2 Champion Chases. That's pretty good! |
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watch it again,he was cantering.
Starluck very poor comparism. Anyway,its clear we aint going to agree,so lets leave it at that. Back to the topic 5/2 is value. |
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Interesting tom and always respect your opinion....Budd makes some decent points of view here however...
But have to say on this occasion I will have to disagree with you tom... People have to bare in mind this horse would of won a champion hurdle if he hadn't gone lame... Captain Cee Bee who you knock has always been a mid 160's horse on his day and to beat him nine lengths was still a good performance and French Opera who you also knock is a confirmed decent 160 merchant who likes the track...which adds credence to his form... I certainly would never knock Finians Rainbow but his form had doubts about it, going to Ascot, and although he didn't have ground to perfectly suit he certainly ran like his form previously would allow him to... Confirming he is a high 160's horse but getting beaten by the horrid horse Somersby puts his form into perspective for me...and I would say as much as he will improve for the better ground how good he actually is is open to question for me...If he had won 5 lengths I would be talking up his chances but he didn't and folded quickly again on the run in and could only find the one pace again... I would say myself Sizing Europe who went with the pace last year is 6lbs short of Moscow Flyer but had he had been campaigned his whole career at the minimum trip and had faced the likes of Moscow, Azertuiop and well Chief I have no doubt at all he would of got in the mixer...he is a winner after all... Queen Mother Champion Chases are often weak affairs for me and people need to bare this in mind when condemning the form...I could stand here now and knock Moscow Flyer by beating Cenkos 10 lengths on his first Champion Chase victory but am not going to, as that is how good Cenkos was... Oneway was beaten 22l in the well chief race but am not going to knock that either as on handicap ratings that was fair.... The same a applies to Sizing and as much as Big Zeb is now 11 he still gives his Champion Chase victory a good look for me and should not be crabbed...the only race I would ever criticize Sizing is the Arkle that he beat Somersby has not worked out but he hadn't run for 3 months and would of needed the run...other times he has been beaten have been in prep races on bad ground or over trips that were to far... when sizing was a young horse I wasn't sure how tough he was because he did everything on the snaff but he has proved me wrong and has become a really tough and reliable top performer... I'm not sure whether the spread bet could also be a play here...could easily win by 5-6 lengths here...will have a look... Cannot believe the sweets we are getting here at 9-4 and am very excited...why thank you lets hope he needs the race today and we can top up more at the very generous price...praise the lord... |
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Sizing is definitely the one to beat. Big Zeb's form this year has been let down with Noble Prince being beaten by Blazing Tempo, and Forpady being well beaten in England. You get the mpression though that he could have bearen them further if he wanted to though.
I don't know. All logic is telling me to back Sizing but I haven't. I could look stupid if he hoses up at 5/4. I suppose you can back him now, and even if he gets beat today he'll still go off pretty short on the day and can lay off for a free bet. Also, good write up harry. |
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i totally agree with budd.actually i think hes a knocking bet...gets beaten today on that horrible ground,gets to chelt on decent ground and its the same result as last year,imo
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talk of Finians Rainbow as a threat to SE surprises me - getting beat by Sommersby and beating Oiseau de Nuit a couple of lengths recently doesn't look anywhere the required level. The Arkle second isn't really enough to make me think he can beat Sizing - clutching at straws I think
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Thats sorts that
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yep
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forget the 9-4 what a lovely performance....
lovely stuff I'm just going to take that 7-4 thanks for that as well  |
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different gravy
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Fantastic performance hope anyone following the thread followed Stront',Willie,Harry and all those championning the case for Sizing being a cracking bet for the champion and not my misguided ramblings :-)
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Super horse.
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