Forums

Cheltenham Festival

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
eric_morris
30 Jan 12 19:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 9,119 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
All this guy succeeds in doing is to cause the bookies to shorten up most of the field in the couple of days before his tip appears leaving rubbish value for everyone wherever you look afterwards right up until the race.

These tips should be banned only the mindless arbers get involved anyway to the cost of other antepost punters.
Pause Switch to Standard View Ban Pr1cewise Antepost
Show More
Loading...
Report eric_morris January 30, 2012 7:52 PM GMT
Could be viewed as market manipulation, the RPost make a lot from bookmaker advertising and are helping them shorten long term markets up drastically.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 7:52 PM GMT
All the sheep in one place, it really riles me up the wrong way when i here you ungreatful lot whinge on about pricewise. Why shouldnt some people whom like a bet get a little help from here or there? I like pricewise, he is a good tipster who gets winners. What is wrong with that? Why shouldnt information be past and shared?

AngryAngryAngry
Report eric_morris January 30, 2012 7:58 PM GMT
We all win less or lose more antepost now because of him that's why.
Report Stake & Chips January 30, 2012 7:59 PM GMT
Layers in clover.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 8:00 PM GMT
It would seem to me there is a heck of a lot of people out there who like a bet, who like to try and find the value for themselves but from no fault of their own find it difficult to or struggle to form a strong enough view or gain the required knowledge through work and or other commitments and so comes a long price wise, a helpful tool that allows that armchair punter to get his/her tenner on at a price that has since already gone to those in the know!

Nothing what so ever wrong with that, where else in the world can one get a bet on at a price that has become history? I have said it before and i say it again on here, if you so happened to pick out the same selection(s) as price wise, all you have to do is bet it the day before, the vast majority of these races are priced up at least 24 hours before the race, and a lot of them are also available as antepost. No excuse imo not to study it that early and therefore get your hundreds or thousands on then! This way at least, you will get them nasty bookies to change their price before price wise has picked it and it then be your doing and price wise will then be forced to then pick something else! Oh i forgot, no it aint about that is it, no, its so you can get on and arb isnt it really yes it is aw never mind crawl back into that stone please and stop whinging over spilt prices!
Report wellchief January 30, 2012 8:01 PM GMT
Surely the sheep are the ones who simply follow him, and not the people who take a view and like to make their own decision on race?

Win, lose or draw I know its my selection, and I have my own reasons for backing it.
Report strontium January 30, 2012 8:01 PM GMT
If you don't like a free press, move to a country that doesn't have one.
Report eric_morris January 30, 2012 8:06 PM GMT
Every country has a press?
Report strontium January 30, 2012 8:08 PM GMT
Not a free one.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 8:11 PM GMT
eric_morris
30 Jan 12 20:06
Joined:
27 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 3,357 | Blogger: eric_morris's blog
Every country has a press?


Does it? Do us all a fav then, go to North Korea and try and open your on free speech paper? I think you will last all of approx 1 hour before your put in jail or worse! We have got it so easy and are very very lucky here, not just N.Korea, a lot of countries are repressive and very bad, what really upsets me though is the vast majority of their citizens know know different and so accept it as normal!
Report wellchief January 30, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
I haven't got a problem with people using Tipsters or Pricewise.

I just think Pricewise has far too much influence on the market; but I accept that's not his fault-he gets paid to do his job.

If a horse runs a good race or their form has just been boosted, then fair do's they should be shortened, the bookies have to make money like everyone else.

But I don't think they should be shortened when they haven't ran for a while, their form doesn't tie into any recent runs - they only shorten because Pricewise might mention them in a good light.

As I said, if he picks Cue Card, then so be it, I'd expect him to shorten.  But if he does pick Cue Card there's no reason to also shorten Sprinter, Peddlers, Al Ferof and Bog Worrior as well?  Surely they should drift if Pricewise is so keen on another one?
Report eric_morris January 30, 2012 8:17 PM GMT
You expect to get your papers free?
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 8:23 PM GMT
I hope he does pick CC as i am already on at 10s, though i cannot see it. I think it will be either BW or CoP. And i wont be getting on either, as think the winner comes from the current top 5 in the betting anyways. Though i will be backing it later in the week anyways. As, i am a sheep, and am a follower, yes ok, i will miss the advised price, but it will still be much shorter on the day than it will be come Friday afternoon this week. That to me, is value, which ever way you look at it.

I am remembering that everyone was whinging about his champ hdl pick, Oscars Well, at 25s, i got that price for my fiver e/w. And i was very happy with it, but everyone is now talking about him as a possible place candidate in the race. Something they was not doing a couple of weeks ago. He was 25s 2 weeks ago, he is now into 14s and still getting backed!
Report wellchief January 30, 2012 8:35 PM GMT
STS, you're missing my point mate.

I have no problem with the bookies shortening his selection's price, because he is proven to pick winners.  The Oscars Well point you make is a valid one.

It's the blanket shortening of half the field I object to.  In the Oscars Well case, I remember Unaccompanied being shortened, as well as Rock on Ruby.  (there was also a mention of The Real Article) After he picked Oscar's Well, the others didn't go back to their previous price - they stayed shorter, almost as if Pricewise picked them.

It's the same in the Arkle - all the sea of blue you see now will stay at those prices; there won't be much red for the ones he doesn't pick.

FWIW, I backed Cue Card before his run with Conti at Chepstow at 20's and Captain Chris at 33's weeks before Pricewise put him up.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 8:40 PM GMT
Yes i see your point completely. But they do go back to their previous prices, it may take a couple days, maybe even a couple weeks if they dont run but they do push a couple out. Every day there is green squares in races pricewise has had an influence in. You have to watch the markets a little more carefully but they do push them back out. Unless form of a runner ties in with a selection or that selection has run. Which often happens also.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 8:43 PM GMT
It is the same with everything in life where money is involved and profits etc. Perfect example of this would be the cost of fuel, petrol went up 30p a litre inside 6 months, since the cost of crude slipped back to what it was when we was paying £1 a litre, has petrol gone back? No it hasnt, it went down by about 2p, not the other 28p, no one complains and so the price gets accepted and the oil companies make more. A price will always increase far quicker than it will ever decrease same is said with bookies exept obv the other way about
Report MWDS January 30, 2012 9:23 PM GMT
If you don't like the bookmakers price, don't back them.  It's a free market and ultimately the price on all the horses will revert to the right level.

As for all the carping on about sheep, how many people on here back horses with no recourse to either pundits or form books (which are ultimately just another form of punditry)?
Report horse9 January 30, 2012 9:48 PM GMT
I see both sides here, but having just checked oddschecker it has to be wrong that most bookies have shortened up the front four for no reason other than the fact Pricewise is previwing the Arkle.
Running scared of the pick I understand, but shortening up all credible challengers to ensure they don't take a bet on the selection is a sad way to run a bookmaking business....
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 9:54 PM GMT
It has to be Cue Card that is the pick, has most money queueing up on betfair and has the most blue on oddschecker.
Report thieveslikeus January 30, 2012 9:54 PM GMT
should be banned by who?
Report magic carpet January 30, 2012 9:55 PM GMT
The problem is that they are not Bookmakers they are simply accountants who treat anyone who dares to win with total disdain
Report thieveslikeus January 30, 2012 10:01 PM GMT
I'm an accountant and I can't get more than about £3 on anything online other than with Betfair!   Good luck to those who can get the prices.  One thing I have noticed about pricewise selections is that they tend to drift late on  as people get desperate to lay off. Can be useful to know that...
Report horse9 January 30, 2012 10:05 PM GMT
I've had half a dozen bookies restrict my bets and one in particular who just won't lay me a penny on cricket, as you say accountants.
They love the £5 e/w treble mug, anyone who has had any kind of reasonable success is binned, I'm not a massive fan of exchanges because of the impact it's had on racing but at least I can get a decent bet on
Report magic carpet January 30, 2012 10:10 PM GMT
The only way is to use betting shops far and wide apart and have some trusted friends who can bet to smaller stakes that fall below individual company notification limits
Report eric_morris January 30, 2012 10:11 PM GMT
They also love antepost NRNB mugs who give their value away even before the race has been run.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 30, 2012 10:15 PM GMT
Where as i am a tenner e/way punter, a max bet for me is £50 win or £25 e/way, i couldn't dream of staking more. I always follow this forum, there is some real good info on here and sharing opinion is the way forward in my opinion of courseCrazy, but i always back the price wise horse, i always bet the value and the only bets i ever play on a day to day basis is the filthy e/way, usually there is more than 1 to back in them races, but i've won a fortune (to me) from doing them, heck if there is more than one filthy e/way race a day, i will have a few permed doubles and trebles also. If i have a bet in any other race, it is only them the night before where i can clearly see value or if a particular horse is taking all the money in a particular event. The last couple of times ive backed a 20/1er night before thats gone off fav and finished 2nd.

I guess it must just be my level of staking, but i have never ever have been restricted nor closed down by anyone, in fact quite the opposite, B365 even give me a free tenner every Saturday as a loyalty bonusTongue Out! And i have taken more than £600 off them in the last 2 months!
Report magic carpet January 30, 2012 10:20 PM GMT
Everyone talks from their own experiences if thats yours then fair play and well done Seathestars
Report horse9 January 30, 2012 10:22 PM GMT
STS1 - it's exactly your staking strategy that keeps you below the radar.
I didn't mean to be derisory when mentionung the fiver e/w mugs and apologies is this reference has offended, I was for years the same and only in later life and increased earnings have I had the chance to move to higher stakes, the fact is that when I was playing for fivers and tenners I never got refused a bet because I was never going to take more than £100 off them in a good day, after one or two decent days where I took a couple of grand or so I found I could no longer have £200 on a 4/1 shot, max bet £20 !!!
And I know they talk to each other, I took Hills for a bundle on cricket during the 2006 World Cup where their focus was on football, they closed me down so I opened up an account with another high st bookie, had 2 cricket bets (and one of them lost !) and they closed me down !
Report thieveslikeus January 30, 2012 10:27 PM GMT
365 are one of the best to be fair.  Took over 30k off them before they shut me down.  Vic Chand was about 20k across 2 accounts before they closed them both on the same day.  What I couldn't understand was the restrictions from Badbrokes and Wills before I'd even made a profit?
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 31, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
Looks like its menorah, laddies at 16/1, never mind, i was going to back this this week though i do not have the funds to do so tomorrow morning, i will just have to take 12s (i hope) on Friday instead. A little annoyed with myself no for not backing this before Saturday. (i done Cue Card instead as my weekly antepost bet in this race)
But am not frustrated, instead of a tenner e/w to balance my book i'll have 12.50e/w on it if i can get 12s, should still beat the sp on 13th March quite easily.
Report shockster January 31, 2012 9:08 AM GMT
I agree about Pricewise affecting the markets and while he is successful it will continue.  His AP picks though this year are woeful and that includes Oscars Well.  Anyway regarding Saturdays, I've started backing my fancy for the big race on the Friday night.  Absolutely sick of getting up on a Saturday morning and finding Pricewise has sunk my price.
Report duncan idaho January 31, 2012 9:36 AM GMT
thieveslikeus
30 Jan 12 21:54

should be banned by who?



should have been first reply and end of thread
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 31, 2012 10:36 AM GMT
Where i agree with this thread and the reasoning behind it i only do loosely. The firms always tighten up the antepost lists as time gets closer to the event anyways. It is up to us gamblers when we make our play on any particular event/selection and to make that bet carefully and skillfully to try and gain the best advantage and value/price.

I do see firms using price wise as an excuse to do this, but they have started to not do this for any other reason. Every year they have done it, there fore i think it very unfair to just blame price wise. If you look through every year for the last, well since time began, bookies have tightened their lists around about the last week of each month and then once into February they will tighten one or two selections per race on a weekly basis. Nothing to do what so ever with price wise in my opinion, just timing.

I do fully expect however, having said that, that one or two firms will push Cue Card back out to 10/1 and Alf out to 6s, depending upon of course what happens on here in the coming days. With Menorah's price contracting on here, i expect both CC's and Alf's price to come out a point max.
Report giani January 31, 2012 11:24 AM GMT
One thing i do get the impression of is Mr Pricwise is in the Philip Hobbs Fan Club. Captain Chris, Wishful Thinking, Menorah.
Report tinkler January 31, 2012 12:05 PM GMT
The natural progression if your as good at picking winners as Tom Segal is,is to either set up a premium
rate tipping line and/or bet them heavily yourself and test yourself as a professional gambler. The first
option would undoubtedly generate him more wealth and if he could hold his nerve under pressure so would the second option. Henry Rix who had an equally impressive record as a newspaper tipster has probably
made a fortune doing a mixture of both.  For whatever reason Segal appears not to want to push things further. For the punter betting 3 figure plus amounts this leads to problems if you are betting in the same races that he is likely to pick horses in. What do you do take a probable lesser price the night
before? or just hope he doesn't pick the horse you fancy in the morning. For the £5 or £10 punter this probably isn't an issue and they are happy . The bigger punter just has to stomach the situation and try and adapt to it as I think he could be doing the PW column for a very long time.
It's a little bit ironic ,given that he has said the majority of the horses he puts up he doesn't back himself, that his pick could contract from 16/1 to 5/1 off his judgement yet he doesn't have a penny on it himself.
Report Masterminded January 31, 2012 4:57 PM GMT
Pricewise is a great excuse to shorten up horses. It's a search for value which is cut before the paper is even out. I can't see the point of it. Then the Racing Post has the cheek to advertise his winners at prices which are impossible to get. Let's just forget about all of the underpriced losers shall we? It's ok for the sheep like you all say.
Report tinkler January 31, 2012 5:22 PM GMT
I'm not sure I'd describe his followers as sheep ,Masterminded, as sheep aren't the brightest of creatures  and people following Pricewise are making a decent  money and probably having a lot of fun with it . If Segal was to lose the plot people would gradually stop following, which
is shrewd.
I just find it a bit strange that Segal doesn't maximise the ablity he's got. If I was able to
pick winners at the rate he does I'd be telling no one and putting some very big bets on from a cruise
ship in the Caribbean.
Report rogerthebutler January 31, 2012 5:26 PM GMT
....or be placing slightly lower bets, but taking a wage from bookies alerting them to ricks they've made.

Guaranteed income and all that....
Report judorick January 31, 2012 5:30 PM GMT
because when you have to do it for real, to earn your living, support a family and all that it definitely changes the calculations - when you are getting a very nice salary it takes away all that stress and allows you to free your mind
Report tinkler January 31, 2012 5:34 PM GMT
Segal see's them as rick's but if he didn't pick them would anyone else spot them. It strikes me that his
veiw is moving the market on its own and if didn't pick those horses their price wouldn't move in a lot of cases as not many other's would see it.
Report tinkler January 31, 2012 5:47 PM GMT
I agree rick that thats probably the reason he doesn't bet for a living and has no ambitions to do so.
His picks are very subjective off mainly video info which could easily go astray under a lot of pressure.
This is unlike people who use figures which is objective and easier to maintain under pressure.
The problem with figures is that a lot of people use them and it's not easy getting value as there is
a lower skill level meaning many can do it.
Segal's winning picking ablity is a Natural Talent that he has and cann't be mimicked.
Report buddeliea January 31, 2012 5:59 PM GMT
Are there people out there that are actually going to back Menorah,Captain Chris and Wishfull Thinking cos some geezer in a newspaper tipped them??
Even though their chances of winning are pretty remote??

Blimey!!
Report strontium January 31, 2012 6:05 PM GMT
Yes. Apparently some people even follow tips from Graham Rodway or The Couch.
Report Masterminded January 31, 2012 6:28 PM GMT
Anyone with Oscars Well, Menorah, Wishful Thinking & Capt Chris as their best hopes for Cheltenham because they read it in a newspaper are sheep. Either that or the Hobbs/Johnson/Whately fan club gone wrong. I have nothing against tipsters but not people who advertise profits from imaginary prices. The only people who make money from Pricewise are the arbers and they get their accounts restricted in the end.
Report tony2914 January 31, 2012 6:56 PM GMT
seems to be a lot of negativity regarding pricewise. at the end of the  day hes only trying to give punters advice regarding value bets.in my opinion ithink oscars wells and menorah is good advice but in these sort of races the form is there to see for most serious racing fans so hes telling us nothing we all ready now, i want to see the pricwise tips for the handicaps as this is where horses can be massivley overpriced.
Report SN02 January 31, 2012 7:18 PM GMT
Pricewise is gr8 - gr8 info, bit of excitement and anticipation of what he is going to pick etc - no harm in it - as mentioned in previous posts it is a free market - thankfully he also stated H Fly was no value at odds of 2-1 / 7-4 :)
Report theriddler February 2, 2012 4:02 PM GMT
great topic this,,,,personally i back all of the pw selections although not all the ante posters,,no brainer if u wanna make cash and i also subscribe to pw extra shame tom only tips on the weekends on it...
regards prices and cuts all the high st bookies will lay the overnight prices which have been cut overnight on an ante post market in their shops for 10 to 15 mins and then they are gone,,,
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 2, 2012 4:16 PM GMT
Just to re-iterate what i said above, yes the firms cut a few horses the night before pw puts one up, but they some of them do push them back out. An example of this is the Arkle, CC was 10s the day before PW put up Menorah, it went to 9s and some lists were only 8s, 2 days later and it is back to 10s with one firm which is get able. SS was 9/4 unchanged. Alf was 6s, but that was always under threat anyways as has been below that price on here for ages, most firms went just 9/2 in anticipation to what PW was to pick, it was 5s top, now with 2 firms he is back to 11/2.

Am sorry, but this thread, and therefore argument means for nothing imo, just feeling sorry for themselves bettors whom either cannot get on anymore cos they want to stake too much or they have genuinely missed the boat imho!
Report dwm767 February 3, 2012 8:36 AM GMT
Not sure I follow this argument really...if you ask Tom Segal what's going to win the Arkle, he wouldn't say Menorah; he's put up Menorah because at this stage he believes he's too big a price given what he's shown. If you thought the same, you'd of backed Menorah by now, and if you don't, then what are you worried about?

I backed Menorah on Saturday evening when he drifted after he fell at Doncaster; the thinking behind it was if he has another race before the Festival and wins he'll shorten, and if he falls again or doesn't impress then he's not going to win and so I wouldn't be interested regardless of his price!

It's all about playing ante post; you can't be one of these 'wait till the day' punters and then moan the the value has gone from the market!
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 9:23 AM GMT
Think it is worth getting back to the point of the thread.

1. It is only referring to Pr1cewise Antepost bets.

2. It is directly commenting on bookies shortening up not just his selection but also all the other leading market contenders (who the winner is most likely to come from) in the couple of days leading up to the tip. These definitely do not lengthen back to their original prices after his tip to anywhere near the degree the bookies shorten their prices before his tip appears. Pr1cewise is costing EVERYONE who backs the winner a large portion of their winnings unless his actual selection wins the race. He is sticking pins in this year after admitting he thinks Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks will win and Sprinter Sacre is something special. Basically therefore he is really putting you on losers unless something goes wrong with the leading contenders. The only people to benefit from these antepost tips are Pr1cewise Arbers. True close proximity antepost punters are losing massive value because of him. Long range antepost punters are not affected.

3. If you are a long range antepost backer and say stuff the short range antepost backers then you are leading to your own demise through selfishness. Antepost punters are in this together.
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 9:31 AM GMT
4. You are unlikely to get more than a bob on the Pr1cewise Antepost selection anyway so cannot take full advantage of any perceived value and you are also on your way to getting your account restricted.

5. Pr1cewise non antepost takes advantage of premium information coming into the office. This is less valuable for antepost where it is relying more on his own ability to see the future, a completely different art, rather than heavily using privileged information which helps him show such good results on day of race tips.

Ban Pr1cewise Antepost, the case is as clear as day.
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 9:38 AM GMT
5. is the reason once past Pr1cewise tipsters leave the paper they then"struggle" to show a profit or anywhere near the same profits by the way.
Report Masterminded February 3, 2012 9:50 AM GMT
Spot on Eric. Think plenty have not even read the title of this thread.
Report dwm767 February 3, 2012 10:09 AM GMT
"Pr1cewise non antepost takes advantage of premium information coming into the office. This is less valuable for antepost where it is relying more on his own ability to see the future, a completely different art, rather than heavily using privileged information which helps him show such good results on day of race tips"

This is NOT true. Eric, you're a idiot. I'm guessing you wanted to back something he's tipped up but you thought 'Ooo no, i'll wait till the day because anything could happen between now & the Festival...' and you've missed the price! Rubbish, see it, fancy it, back it...don't expect the market or an individual price to hold until you're ready to play!
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 10:17 AM GMT
Explain why tipsters who were successful as Pr1cewise are far less or not successful when they leave the role and become independant tipsters.
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 10:18 AM GMT
In fact dont, as it is going off the subject of Antepost once more.
Report thieveslikeus February 3, 2012 10:18 AM GMT
Eric, go to the 10 Downing Street website and start a petition, http://www.number10.gov.uk/take-part/public-engagement/petitions/
you might get this debated in parliament!
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 3, 2012 2:41 PM GMT
I think dwm767 is spot on there! Some bad losers on this thread and every other price wise thread imo! They DO lengthen back, never immediately and never by the same bookies but they do lengthen back over time. That is entirely what it is all about, timing.

Just sour grapes imo whinging about price wise.
Report Masterminded February 3, 2012 3:22 PM GMT
Yes everyone on here is moaning because they are sore losers. Even though the antepost bets are yet to even run ffs.
Report zilzal1 February 3, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
The whole concept of Pricewise hasnt been good in the long run for punters, hence the restrictions on accounts unless they are totally clueless and price resistant and the levels of bet acceptance being seen in shops nowdays compared to even a few years ago.

Same with price comparison sites, why, ifs it becomes that easy to get a price without putting in hardly any effort at all then it can only be taken to smaller amounts, its like any "Special offers" you see in stores, its for either a limited time only or limited to the 1st few customers, try buying up all the stock up at a supermarket thats on "Special" and i doubt you will get it nowdays.

Nothing in life can be TOO easy to last and this combined with the exchanges, will , in the end, damage both punting and the sport of horseracing.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 3, 2012 4:04 PM GMT
Ok, my point about bad losers is mis-representitive of the meaning, but the term, sour grapes, is not!


zilzal1, i work for a store development agency called deeset, we travel the country refitting large supermarkets, getting them ready for new lines, offers, seasons etc. This time of year is a particularly quiet period hence why i am on here a lot at the moment.
The supermarkets work on a fair deal for all basis where special offers are concerned, no one person can go into a store and take advantage. It is my opinion that this is now the same with bookmakers as far as price wise is concerned! Also, personally i think a £50 win bet or £25 e/way is ample especially as PW is so popular. It is the people taking advantage, that will do the ultimate damage for all, and they are all on here doing all the whinging.

There is a thread on the horse racing forum, asking if anyone has any inside knowledge on what particulars bookmakers rules are on restricting and closing down accounts. It is basically those that take advantage that get restricted and closed, those that open multiple accounts taking advantage of the special offers and free bets and busing them that are ultimately to blame. No bookmaker likes or will put up with a punter whom the perceive to be taking advantage. As far as all bookmakers are concerned, gambling is for social enjoyment and nothing more, after all, this is what the industry is fundamentally all about, those that want to and can make a living from it can take a hike!
Report zilzal1 February 3, 2012 4:15 PM GMT
But its spread out now, go into a shop with a £100 bet at a early price and they often ring up. I used to manage a good few years ago and can tell you that the limits have been lowered dramatically and it WILL get worse

And guess what, punters who like a larger bet will go elsewhere. If the PERCEPTION is that you cannot be allowed to win even tiddly amounts(except for a massive stroke of luck) then the larger gambler, even though he may be a loser, will go somewhere else for his gambling habit
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 5:32 PM GMT
He isnt as good antepost, these tips are spin-offs from his day of race tips which are good for the reasons given above. This means you are getting worse odds for your mid range antepost winners (those they shorten that he doesnt end up tipping) due to bookies shortening the market leaders up just before his tip is released and also his antepost tips are not as good as his daily tips.  Lose and Lose for mid-range antepost punters due to scared bookies and Pr1cewise Arbers backing anything he sneezes at so they have a risk free bet.
Report eric_morris February 3, 2012 5:34 PM GMT
The Racing Post is ensuring Antepost punters get bad value.
Report jimmy777 February 3, 2012 11:24 PM GMT
If you bet with betfair, its an open market and as such play it. We all know through buying the racing post when the selections of pricewise will be so back your selections before. Just like the different declaration stages, just another market changer. Why everyone is getting so het up about it unless they are just going for pricewise selection after he picks.
Report thieveslikeus February 4, 2012 12:09 PM GMT
Eric's points are very valid.  The Pricewise column sells newspapers AND helps the RP's main advertisers increase their profits, even though the column itself makes a profit seemingly at their expense.   Which is why there is no hope in hell of it being dropped, ditched, binned, banned or anything else.  All we can do is adapt our strategies to deal with it and fume when our accounts are limited because our selections sometimes coincide with it.
Report buddeliea February 4, 2012 2:23 PM GMT
yep,personally dont get involved with pricewise,antepost or not.
With antepost i mainly use betfair and take prices early with a view to getting big prices and getting in a good position nearer the day of the race.
Report eric_morris February 6, 2012 10:05 PM GMT
Last Instalment, Join Together and Flight Lieutenant all being shortened up by the bookies for the RSA ahead of the Pr1cewise antepost tip ... thanks a lot Pr1cewise.
Report FOYLESWAR February 6, 2012 10:08 PM GMT
have to get on before he puts em up eric !
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 6, 2012 10:17 PM GMT
Yep, fully expecting as always when the selection is known in the morning that in the coming days one or two of the bookies will lengthen the other two to their original prices again. It always happens, momentarily sometimes, sometimes only for a matter of hours in a day sometimes forever.
But to be honest, if you have not got your antepost book sorted on the RSA by now and like me have backed LI JT and FL then you really have missed the boat and should just give it up till the morning of the races where likely hood when hills/lads etc dangle carrots and offer specials and price happy hours etc you will in all likely hood get the same price as now or slightly better!

Sour grapes, delish!
Report eric_morris February 6, 2012 10:32 PM GMT
Sour Grapes? How can that be when none of this has affected me? I dont think antepost punters should take this market manipulation lightly. You sound the kind of punter who will lose long term as you dont mind giving up your value. 

The price slashing of the market leaders outside the fav as is customary now is taking place on the RSA.
Report siralex February 6, 2012 10:39 PM GMT
blimey. what a joke some people on here are. pwise tips up less than 1 horse a day on average. i agree it must be annoying if u fancy the same as him but there are plenty of people out there who move the market every night on poxy races which means prices aren't available at what they should be in the morning.

admittedly it is getting worse now with his ante post bets as the bookes are just cutting everything in order to avoid taking bets. but thats the bookies that are pathetic not pwise's fault. i remember getting 250 on his selections a few years ago. now its impossible to get over 100 on in total unless its with hills.

as for saying u cant make profits out of him, thats quite simply wrong. if u make the effort via phone calls, shops and internet accounts it can be done. i have upped my stakes this year and am winning more than i have ever done on pricewise selections and thats having every account virtually shut except william hill.
Report thieveslikeus February 6, 2012 10:39 PM GMT
Eric, you are assuming that everyone is just sat there waiting for the selection while the bookies shorten up in anticipation.  Reality is that many of us have been getting our wedges out and backing our selections before his is known.  That is why the prices are going down.  In my case I have been lumping on LI as I reckon he will tip FL and if he tips FL there could well be a knock on to LI as he beat FL so easily last time.  Does that make sense?
Report eric_morris February 6, 2012 10:44 PM GMT
siralex you really ought to read the thread before commenting.
Report siralex February 6, 2012 10:48 PM GMT
eric - i agree that the ante post selectins are now a joke. there is no value in them this year as they are being sliced in half before he puts anything up. would be quite happy myself if he never gave 1 antepost again. the bookies are just a complete and utter joke nowadays and its not just pricewise selctions either.

i was more responding to whoever said pricewise is only for arbers. that is wrong.
Report eric_morris February 6, 2012 10:49 PM GMT
thieveslikeus ... my four figure antepost bets were placed last June, do you understand? I know what I'm doing however I dont think a selfish view like others have helps anything worth having survive long term.
Report thieveslikeus February 6, 2012 10:56 PM GMT
I like to form my views with a bit more information than that Eric as I don't want to be confused with Russell Grant.  Pricewise is an inconvenience, I agree, but it isn't going anywhere so we have to adapt to it.  Same as having a 4th day and new races to contend with every couple of years.
Report zilzal1 February 6, 2012 10:58 PM GMT
Thanks to the good lord he usually leaves the handicaps alone Ante PostHappy
Report eric_morris February 6, 2012 11:00 PM GMT
Handicaps are a no no antepost unless v short range ... it didnt take years to work that one out.

I would just like to make it clear, I am not Russell Grant.
Report eric_morris February 6, 2012 11:03 PM GMT
thieveslikeus ... that is having a lot of information you have had Aintree by June to confirm your initial thoughts after the Festival though in reality it is leaving it late and losing value imo.
Report eric_morris February 8, 2012 10:21 PM GMT
Last Installment, Join Together and Flight Lieutenant were all shortened up by bookies in the couple of days prior to the Pr1cewise RSA tip yet neither Last Installment or Join Together, who he didnt tip, have been lengthened back again with those bookies. They have just shortened Silviniaco Conti his other tip, up further.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 8, 2012 11:56 PM GMT
Actually eric_morris, a couple have since now pushed them two he didnt tip back out as i have said they would do all along!!!

Join Together is now back out to 10/1 with baldys and sporting and Last Instalment is once again 8s with laddies!!!

This i think, answers this debate!

Prices correct as of time of this post! They were those prices in the days leading up to the price wise tip but were shorter the day of the tip until approx' today!
Report eric_morris February 9, 2012 11:44 PM GMT
Two bookies lengthening one price each NOWHERE NEAR compensates for the amount of shortening across nearly all bookies on 4 different horses, 2 which he didnt tip. Are you living on a different planet where mathematics takes a totally unrelated form to basic maths here, struth man.
Report eric_morris February 9, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
Punters placing multiples including the STILL shortened up untipped horses are now losing massive value on their bets.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 9, 2012 11:48 PM GMT
No, i think the last time i checked i was on planet earth lol. Does it really matter who lengthens them back? NO, well not to me anyways. As long as they have been lengthened back. If you have not bet these horses yet, then your in a position to do so now while those prices are there. If you dont, well i dont see where your coming from as regards to this thread at all.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 9, 2012 11:49 PM GMT
In other words, does it effect you directly? If the answer is no, then whats the point imo!
Report zilzal1 February 9, 2012 11:57 PM GMT
In other words, does it effect you directly? If the answer is no, then whats the point imo!


Just sit back and think what you wrote, it can happen in any aspect of life. Just because something doesn't affect you at present, but you think is wrong, then you should still raise the issue, Tomorrow it might.

Because then don't expect any sympathy when something happens to you and they give the same response you have given just then.

You should always complain about sharp practices.
Report eric_morris February 10, 2012 12:04 AM GMT
It doesnt have to affect me as long as it effects antepost punters it matters. The odds have not been lengthened back on his non tips with ALL of the bookies who shortened them. This is an outrageous scything of value from punters due to Pr1cewise. Anyone placing best odds multiples are extremely unlikely to be getting anywhere near the same value as they were a couple of days before his tip appeared as most bookies have kept their prices at the shortened price not the original price. Also, if placing singles the remaining best prices on the non tips will disappear quicker (there are less bookies offering the original price) again in time giving punters much worse value. Every antepost punter should be bothered about this, if they're not they should allow their mums to confiscate their wallets.
Report buddeliea February 10, 2012 7:57 AM GMT
Erics right,cant see why anyone is arguing to be honest,not if they are reading his comments and understanding his point.
Report thieveslikeus February 10, 2012 8:42 AM GMT
Eric, there is an alternate explanation.  People might have been backing other horses for other reasons...
Report Martin pipe returns February 10, 2012 10:07 AM GMT
If you look at the likely runners for most races at the festival (World Hurdle and Champion Hurdle aside) the markets are still quite underround in many cases. I think what is happening with horses shortening before a Pricewise antepost race is that bookies are taking a close look at their books and trimming a few of the likelier contenders. Let's face it, we all knew First Lieutenant was overpriced at 16-1 and 99% of people on that thread suggested as much.

I don't think the odds compilers spend as much time as we do studying the markets. They change prices after a trial then just respond to any heavy bets they take. Collateral form holding up or falling apart doesn't always seem to register with them. When they know a race is due to be Pricewised they will take a fresh look and often start to bring a few in - and in fairness to Eric this will be partly in anticipation of money coming for the horse.

For those horses who remain healthy and who's form is holding up there is an inevitable shortening of the price as the race approaches (not least because other horses get beaten/injured/targetted elsewhere). What's happening here is that this process is brought forward.

Whilst not ideal, it's not a huge problem provided that you are aware which race is next on the radar and you get your studying and betting done before the scissors come out. For those that aren't prepared to do the legwork then they have to be prepared to potentially miss out on a good price if their selection is one of the horses to be trimmed.

There is a plus side to his articles too. We get to read the trainers latest thoughts on the main contenders and whether they are even likely to run. For me this additional info is always very useful and welcome.
Report thieveslikeus February 10, 2012 10:14 AM GMT
Maybe, just maybe, some horses have been being backed ahead of a weekend of trials too?
Report eric_morris February 13, 2012 10:30 PM GMT
Supreme Novices Hurdle eve of Pr1cewise tip, 5 horses shortening across bookies, 1 drifting. Whoopee thanks Pr1ceslasherwise.
Report eric_morris February 14, 2012 8:56 AM GMT
A casual observer might see this as the Racing Post helping their main sponsors, the bookmakers, shorten up all of the main graded race prices thus drastically improving their margins on the biggest earner of the year after the National. Is this any different to price fixing on the stock exchange?

Absolute disgrace.
Report lazychef February 14, 2012 9:37 AM GMT
Eric, you've been making this point for what seems an eternity now. We all know! I've already gotten on my picks (Montbazon, Cinders and Ashes, Colour Squadron) for the Supreme at the beginning of January. There is no point moaning bout this time and time again when you've had at least a week to study the race(you knew Pricewise would be making his pick last week??) and make a firm decision before Pricewise publishes his. It's not ideal but that's the name of the game. Take a position early in the market and reap the benefits of large prices! I did and I'm happy with my three vs the field! Very simple Eric.. just do the donkey work before Pricewise does and get your bets on!
Report eric_morris February 14, 2012 9:40 AM GMT
read the thread I am highly likely to have placed my bets months before you, however unlike you I am not saying fk everyone else who it does affect. Similar practises may affect you next, lets hope it does.
Report eric_morris February 14, 2012 9:45 AM GMT
lazychef was a well chosen username for you as you cant be @rsed to read the thread before spouting cr@p.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 14, 2012 10:05 AM GMT
Another week and this thread pops up again, lazychef is quite right, it is getting annoying now, hence no other posters.
Although i do agree with your point as already stated on here, the bookmakers pre pricewise always chopped from 4 weeks to go and onwards in any case, those that were getting ready for nrnb at the 2 week point have always chopped at this time. They pick a few out they think their over the odds on, and the scissors come out, they did on an almost daily basis, chop one or two here, one or two there, there is no difference whatsoever to whats happening now as to what happened back in the day pre pricewise except they mostly now wait until pricewise eve as it gives them a better idea of which ones to clip and which ones to leave alone. We are all in it to try to gain an advantage, they are no different.

So i will re-iterate, if you as you say did place your bets months ago,

why bother bringing this thread back week after week and crying over spilt milk about itConfused
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 February 14, 2012 10:08 AM GMT
By the way, i am on vulcanite at 33s and just backed midnight game this morning to which i had absolutely no problem taking some 14/1. I was going to back it however last week when i seen 16s, a 2 point hit is not a disaster though if i missed this morning i would not have bothered until at least the day of race.
Report eric_morris February 14, 2012 10:42 AM GMT
There have been plenty of other posters, quite a few of them trying to explain the situation to you,  unfortunately you dont understand basic maths and are only bothered by things that effect you now and will therefore keep returning to it like a bad uninformed unintelligent poster always does.
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com