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unclepuncle
30 Jan 12 10:15
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 7,007 | Blogger: unclepuncle's blog
16/1 (NAP) Grin
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Report Mr Mischief January 30, 2012 10:47 AM GMT
Guaranteed runner?? Trainer on record as saying it's 50/50 he goes novice hurdling
Report BJG January 30, 2012 10:51 AM GMT
After race at Gowran Park Thu, 26th Jan, 2012 (1st) He's a fair tool, and keeps improving all the time. We've schooled him over hurdles and were thinking of going hurdling. We might still consider the Cheltenham bumper. It's 50-50. He settled lovely today but Cheltenham might blow his head. We have the alternative of running him in a few good novice hurdles to give him some experience. B R Hamilton
Report unclepuncle January 30, 2012 11:58 AM GMT
Typical.Cry

This is what he said after the horses previous win:

Brian Hamilton trains Moscow Mannon for Jonathan Flanagan and he said: "The owner turned down decent money for him after Galway. Declan rides out for Willie Mullins and he said this fellow is as good as anything Willie has down there.

"We've had the Cheltenham bumper at the back of our minds for him. We'll see how things go now.

"He's a fair decent horse and he's got a flat sort of pedigree.

"We were a bit concerned about the ground but he answered that question today.

"He could go for a bumper at Naas at the end of January and that'd make up our minds about Cheltenham."


They ran him at the end of Januarys (though at Gowran not Naas) and as he romped home I assumed that would 'make their mind up about Cheltenham'.

Seems like this inability to give s straight target is becoming endemic with all trainers.Mischief
Report unclepuncle January 30, 2012 12:09 PM GMT
Have now laid off my entire stake at 16/1 on here so no harm done - will just have to decide whether to accept a lower price if/when he is confirmed as I hate taken less than I could have done.

I had similar stuff the year Dunguib won - I'd advised and backed him at 12/1 and then we had all the 'will he won't he' until just before the meeting. Laid my bet off at about 9/1 and then only had about a quarter of my stake on him on the day.Cry

If they don't run at Cheltenham the owner/trainer are bloody idiots. Novice hurdles can wait till next year.
Report DECALEC January 30, 2012 7:37 PM GMT
Rumour's that a hefty offer has been accepted by owner Jonathan Flanagan for his weatherbys champion Bumper 2nd fav Moscow Mannan were dismissed yesterday(27th Jan).The six-year-old has landed three consecutive bumpers,concluding with Thursday's at Gowran.
Trainer Brian Hamilton said:"He's a very good horse and there are load's of offers on the table,but he's family-owned and they are people who are relatively new to racing so i think they want to go to Cheltenham.He's not actually on the market.
PAGE14 SAT28TH RACING POST
Report BJG January 30, 2012 7:38 PM GMT
Very late to think about goin hurdlin - will go to Chelt imo for the bumper

Plenty of time to go over hurdles next season
Report theboyfrommatebeleland January 30, 2012 7:47 PM GMT
Why not go in to the Chestnut Inn in Ballygowan and ask the owner-might be a good place to be on the 14th of March
Report PFtrader January 30, 2012 8:16 PM GMT
He is my idea of the bumper winner at this stage, and looks to be improving with every run.
Report unclepuncle January 30, 2012 9:03 PM GMT
If he were trained by Mullins and owned by JP he'd be about 5/1 fav.Shocked

Might have to get my money back on soon - will be watching oddschecker like a hawk.
Report Mr Mischief January 30, 2012 9:58 PM GMT
My idea of the winner too. 16s too big to ignore and prepared to take the hit if a N/R
Report misslimerick85 January 30, 2012 10:09 PM GMT
willie mullins offered 225k last week for this he was told no thanks willie
Report Arklearkle January 30, 2012 11:27 PM GMT
I presume any one from 3 - RR JP MOL
Report willie the milk January 31, 2012 7:53 PM GMT
There is no doubt uncle, it's form makes for good reading. If there were no reports of hurdling, I would certainly take some of the 16s, but will be happy with 10s on the morning
Report BJG February 1, 2012 3:37 PM GMT
rpdarkhorse Justin O'Hanlon
Brian Hamilton reported today that Moscow Mannon will run in the Cheltenham bumper and that Declan Lavery is likely to keep the ride.
Report gravy February 1, 2012 5:17 PM GMT
Superb news.
Ta BJG
Report willie the milk February 1, 2012 6:51 PM GMT
Good enough for me.
Report Spirit February 1, 2012 7:02 PM GMT
Confirmed runner irish racingpost 16-1 fair price
Report Can't Catch Me February 1, 2012 7:03 PM GMT
Great news.... just had a little dabble at 16/1. Already 14.5 on here.
Report DECALEC February 1, 2012 8:50 PM GMT
maybe BOYCIE on atr will get his name right now called him DEREK today after winning at the MAZE imagine the thought of calling someone DEREK Grin
Report Meadow February 2, 2012 8:52 AM GMT
Good enough for me, this was on Mark Howards Diary..

Thursday 26th January 2012
Moscow Mannon (7/4), highlighted as a horse to follow in the Christmas Special, ran out a most impressive winner of the bumper at Gowran Park. Brian Hamilton's gelding had made a big impression when beating subsequent winner Joxer at Fairyhouse in December. The Moscow Society gelding missed the Festive period having been found to be coughing but he was back to full fitness with an easy win from the well regarded Morning Royalty. He is now second favourite with some firms for the Festival bumper in March and it will take a very good horse to beat him. The six year old looked a class act today.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Report unclepuncle February 2, 2012 7:31 PM GMT
I'm all for loyalty, but given the value and importance of the race I'd much prefer it if they took the opportunity to book a decent professional. I know the jockey has ridden him to his wins, but that was against other amateurs, and if push comes to shove (which hopefully it won't) it would be galling to see him beaten 1/2L by something ridden by McCoy, Walsh, Gerraghty, Thornton etc. Anyone remember Mighty MossCry

But 16/1 is still widely available, and more than compensates for the jockey issue, so I've gone in again.Excited
Report theboyfrommatebeleland February 2, 2012 7:48 PM GMT
Hate to dampen the ridiculous enthusiasm fot this horse but:
1.Has only run right handed.
2.Last won at Gowran which is the complete opposite of Cheltenham being an undulating right handed course with a downhill finish.
3.Trainer never had a runner at Cheltenham before
4 Jockey is a 7lb claiming amateur riding against Ruby etc.
5 Jockey never rode at Cheltenham before.
So analysis:
Inexperieced rider + Inexperienced Trainer
Chances of success = o%
Chances of having kittens= 100%
Report OnTheSnaff February 2, 2012 9:16 PM GMT
Been on the go since june,Looks like he prefers heavy ground (has won on good but that was at galway,beat nothing)
Not for me,thanks
Report thieveslikeus February 2, 2012 9:51 PM GMT
Don't take much notice of the bumper, other than it is useful to know a year in advance what the beaten favourite in the Supreme will be.  The analysis from TBFML struck me as being very inadequate though and has made me go and look at the horse as I suspect people having such views might allow for some value.

1.  Most horses don't have a right or left hand preference so in the absence of a poor run left handed this point has little relevance.
2.  Means we know he handles undulations then! Preference for a flat or undulating track is much more likely than caring which way round he goes.  Sharp or Galloping is even more prevalent as a preference, so the fact he handled Fairyhouse says a lot.
3.  So what, the bumper seems a good place to start then
4. So what, it is the bumper it's not like he's got to get the thing to jump? 
5.  Again, it's only a flat race, if he has the best horse he probably won't muck it up.

If a lot of people are thinking like you then there may be some real value there.
Report unclepuncle February 3, 2012 12:34 PM GMT
Point 5 - I like kittensLove
Report punchestown February 3, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
Anyone remember Mighty Moss,

------------------
Mr D G Lavery in a different parish then Mr Fred Hutsby imo,didn't panic at G0wran when many thought Morning Royalty had given him the slip.
Report punchestown February 3, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
*than*
Report theboyfrommatebeleland February 3, 2012 8:05 PM GMT
Some points worth making or repeating.
1.I notice young Lavery has ridden 13 times in 2 seasons.I suspect that only because the owners are very loyal his chances of him riding at Cheltenham for any other stable are equal to his chances of winning this race namely zilch
even 2 He obviously deserves kudos for winning at Gowran but that was against 5 other horses not the hurly and burly and bumping-after all it is a bumper-at Cheltenham.
3.I wish the young lad good luck but even if the horse is good enough he will get carved up among the big boys
Report thieveslikeus February 3, 2012 8:37 PM GMT
Yes Long run couldn't win the Gold Cup because of his jockey too.  Only able to ride because of the loyalty of the owner.  Zero chance.
Report theboyfrommatebeleland February 4, 2012 8:56 AM GMT
1 young Cohen had won the King George before the GC
2 Moscow M is no Long Run
3 Brian Hamilton in no Nicky Henderson
Report thieveslikeus February 4, 2012 11:05 AM GMT
1. Indeed, he had no chance in that either
2. How do you know, could be anything yet
3. It's the Champion Bumper, what was Henderson's last winner in it?

Those of us who can remember great victories by small handlers at the Festival know it can be done.  Some of them don't stay small handlers mind you.  Remember people being very sniffy about horses trained out in the sticks by MC Pipe  even after Baron Blakeney had won the Triumph.   

Absolutely ridiculous to say what might be the best horse has ZERO chance because of who rides it and/or trains it. Especially when they have already trained and ridden it to the point where it has the best form in the race.  By all means downgrade its chance slightly but to say ZERO is just plain wrong, as well as being frankly rude and ignorant.   The horse has a chance.  Best piece of advice I can give anyone is back HORSES not jockeys!
Report Pre-Fat-Low-Fat-Foods February 4, 2012 12:25 PM GMT
This horse beat Robin Angevin a neck at Galway.

Chelt Bump winning form??? I think not
Report unclepuncle February 4, 2012 5:24 PM GMT
The key here is that the trainer and jockey are factored into his price. If it was a Mullis or Nicholls horse with Ruby Walsh likely to be riding it would be 5/1 fav.

As for 'low-fat-what-a****' just go through nearly every Cheltenham bumper winners form and tell me you couldn't say a similar thing about nearly all of them - many of them had been beaten the time before.

Moscow Mannon has shown a good level of progress with every run and was very impressive the last twice showing a high cruising speed, a willing attitude and being very strong at the end of his races finding plenty for pressure. He has won on good and heavy ground and seems very uncomplicated.

16/1 is a very fair price thats all I'm saying, and, assuming he runs, I bet I can lay off for a healthy free bet on the day so no damage if he loses - thats my kind of bet.Love
Report VikingRidge February 5, 2012 4:46 PM GMT
I've thought it for a long time, the bumper will be Mr Ferguson's first ever Cheltenham winner as a trainer. Population looks top draw imo. Great cruising speed, lovelly turn off foot should appreciate the ground come March.

Form of the bumper wins has also turned out very well!
Report marychain1 February 5, 2012 4:58 PM GMT
Think he's got a few decent prospect in the Novice races, but cant see this one being good enough.
Report unclepuncle February 12, 2012 3:27 PM GMT
Best price 10/1 now - I can pick emWink
Report yourbestmate February 12, 2012 3:42 PM GMT
Has he won the race or something?
Report unclepuncle February 12, 2012 3:47 PM GMT
Yes - but you won't get paid out for another month. Mums the wordSilly
Report willie the milk February 12, 2012 6:02 PM GMT
I'm 6 points to the good Uncle. WD
Report unclepuncle February 12, 2012 6:23 PM GMT
Thanks WillieGrin

Another good back to lay is Pique Sous @ 16/1 with Slybet - only 10/1 everywhere else. Not been committed to Cheltenham yet (though Mullins never commits anything until the final dec stage anyway) and if it goes it looks sure to be the Mullins No.1 based on todays impressive performance so sure to go off near favourite.
Report Temlett February 12, 2012 6:32 PM GMT
Why is everyone saying that was a good bumper today?

Looked very average to me although the winner did it well.
Report unclepuncle February 13, 2012 8:04 AM GMT
I never said it was good bumper today, and I agree it looked fairly average (other than the winner there was no money for anything), but it's hard to gauge the actual quality with so many first time out horses.

The winner travelled very sweetly, quickened and stayed on well, and Mullins said he expected him to improve again so I just proposed that the 16/1 on Pique Sous with Slybet (10/1 best price elsewhere) would allow for an easy profit if it runs.

Still won't beat Moscow Mannon thoughGrin
Report Can't Catch Me February 13, 2012 10:31 PM GMT
I thought it wasn't even an average bumper, but a really poor one. Amazed at price of PS myself.
Report littlemisssummer February 23, 2012 10:16 PM GMT
some people need to get there information right before you write on this

1/ the jockey has raced along with ruby and davy and Mccoy e.gs before and he has beat them!!he beat ruby and davy a few weeks go at down royal!!

2/ the jockey all so has raced at cheltenham last year

3/ br hamilton has been training for over ten years so i wouldnt call that inexperience
  also ruby,davy,mccoy all had to start some where as well so y shouldnt the jockey get to ride him hes done well so far!!the trainer has faith in him its not all to do with loyalty
Report blackberry123 February 23, 2012 10:53 PM GMT
Ok so just like previously predicted it has been confirmed:-
Moscow Mannon, it's trainer and jockey are ALL expecting kittens - congrats to them all!!!
Seriously though everyone has to start somewhere guys!!!!  And as for racing against the big guns - well they dont always win either!!!!! Remind me again where they all were placed last year????????   exactly!!!  Give the bloody guy a chance!!! Besides if you aint happy with the horse, trainer or jockey then DONT bet on it!!!!!!  But i will say ive had my good share of winnings from Moscow Mannon!  Oh and as for the jockey besides winning on moscow mannon my research has shown he's had 66-1, 50-1 and 33-1 winners - guy must be doing something right!!  Anyhow good luck to all you who place a wager on the bumper and if moscow is Ireland's best hope of winning then the bes of Irish luck to it!!!!!!!!!!
Report KP22 February 29, 2012 12:43 PM GMT
Form Horse Age Owner Trainer
120 ACE FIGHTER PILOT 6 Odds On Racing Jim Best
2-11 ASHES HOUSE (IRE) 6 Diamond Racing Ltd Tim Vaughan
11AT FISHERS CROSS (IRE) 5 Gearoid Costelloe Rebecca Curtis
22B HAKTI (IRE) 5 Mark Rimell Mark Rimell
1 CHAIN REACTOR 6 The Leaflet Company Ltd Warren Greatrex
21 CHAMPAGNE FEVER (IRE) 5 Susannah Ricci Willie Mullins IRE
1 CIRCULAR QUAY 5 Malcolm Denmark Warren Greatrex
11 CLONBANAN LAD (IRE) 6 Edward Walsh Michael O'Connor IRE
1 COOL GEORGE 4 R J Reip Jackie du Plessis
1 FICKLE FORTUNE (IRE) 4 Mr E Banville Noel Meade IRE
0P0(3) GLENWOOD PRESENT (IRE) 5 Nick Elliott Bob Buckler
21 GOD OF THE KOP (IRE) 5 Gearoid Costelloe Rebecca Curtis
3 HORATIO HORNBLOWER (IRE) 4 Huw & Richard Davies Nick Williams
0314 IFANDBUTWHYNOT (IRE) 6 Claire Hollowood & Henry Dean David O'Meara
1 IL PRESIDENTE (GER) 5 Paul Vogt Ian Williams
1 JEZKI (IRE) 4 G M McGrath Jessica Harrington IRE
1 MANY CLOUDS (IRE) 5 Trevor Hemmings Oliver Sherwood
3111 MOSCOW MANNON (IRE) 6 J M Flanagan Brian Hamilton IRE
2-12 MOZOLTOV 6 Martin Lynch Willie Mullins IRE
11 MY INHERITANCE (IRE) 4 Julie Hoskins Tom George
1 MY TENT OR YOURS (IRE) 5 The Happy Campers Nicky Henderson
11 NEW YEAR'S EVE 4 Bloomfields John Ferguson
(3)30 PIANO CONCERTO (USA) 5 Buckle, Deal, Garner, Inverdale, Thorner Andy Turnell
31 PIQUE SOUS (FR) 5 Supreme Horse Racing Club Willie Mullins IRE
11 POPULATION 5 Bloomfields John Ferguson
(1) REGAL ENCORE (IRE) 4 James Burley & Anthony Honeyball Anthony Honeyball
0(2) RON 4 Russell Trew Ltd Mark Tompkins
1-41 ROYAL GUARDSMAN (IRE) 5 Camilla & Rosie Nock Colin Tizzard
3 SILVER CONCORDE 4 Dr Ronan Lambe Dermot Weld IRE
1111 SIR JOHNSON 6 Steve & Jackie Fleetham Peter Bowen
11 THE NEW ONE (IRE) 4 Mrs S Such Nigel Twiston-Davies
12 THE PAPARRAZI KID (IRE) 5 Byerley Thoroughbred Racing Willie Mullins IRE
22 THE ROMFORD PELE (IRE) 5 Gearoid Costelloe Rebecca Curtis
511 TISTORY (FR) 5 Judy Wilson Nicky Henderson
11 UP TO SOMETHING (FR) 4 E M G Roberts Charlie Longsdon
1-(1) VALDEZ 5 Riverdee Stable Alan King
12 VILLAGE VIC (IRE) 5 Alan Peterson Philip Hobbs
31 VIRGINIA ASH (IRE) 4 J P Romans Colin Tizzard
1 YES WAY HOSAY (IRE) 6 The Casey Partnership Roy Wilson IRE
39 entries
10 Irish-trained
Report stayedon February 29, 2012 6:24 PM GMT
Cheltenhams a dream factory. But Moscow mannon is truely up against it!!! against the big boys, the cream always rises to the top, its 13-2 wit b365 too short 4 me, unproven Jockey n trainer I ll pass. Champagne fever is progressive n Willie will hav him firing on all cylinders n charge up the cheltenham hill!!!!
Report OnTheSnaff February 29, 2012 6:31 PM GMT
Royal Guardsman will do for me.
Report cheltenhamwinner February 29, 2012 6:37 PM GMT
I know this is not an easy race as i should know. as for fav moscow mannon at this price is a no way for me Champagne fever is a far better horse and a far better bet good trainer good jockey good stable so good luck ,as for moscow mannon he has none of these,so my money is on Champagne fever
Report DECALEC February 29, 2012 8:10 PM GMT
^good jockey what planet u onCrazy
Report cheltenhamwinner February 29, 2012 8:31 PM GMT
< we will see DECALEC still say Champagne fever will storm home so any one with spare money put on this
Report blackberry123 March 4, 2012 10:40 PM GMT
These so called good jockeys (ruby, russell etc) dont ALWAYS win either!!!!!!!!  Think Moscow Mannon has a good of chance as any of these big horses you are all naming!!!!!!!!  If anyone knows this horse surely its youn lavery as he has ridden to 3 wins!!!!!!!!  Its a great opportunity for the young lad and for the Hamilton stables - hope they do well! its an experience for both jockey and trainer and good luck to them!!!!!  Even Willie Mullins doesnt always get it right!!!
Report andy85 March 5, 2012 12:18 AM GMT
I think Clonbanan Lad is a bit of a price.  Only worry would be the form is on heavy ground which is unlikely at Cheltenham.
Report Joist March 5, 2012 12:56 AM GMT
Any thoughts on Jezki?
Report punchestown March 5, 2012 11:15 AM GMT
Jezki travelled really well yesterday carrying his winners penalty and did it really well,going was good yesterday which would be a positive at Prestbury Park but I'd have thought they wouldn't have run yesterday if they were going to travel with this horse?
Report Joist March 5, 2012 12:13 PM GMT
I read after yesterday's win that Cheltenham is the plan, since he had little more than a gallop- quotes from JH.
Report punchestown March 5, 2012 2:21 PM GMT
Looks like there going with Jezki alright,they reckon the quicker pace will suit and the way it travels in its races I'd agree,a lively outsider.
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