Cheltenham Festival
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16/1 (NAP) 
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Guaranteed runner?? Trainer on record as saying it's 50/50 he goes novice hurdling
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After race at Gowran Park Thu, 26th Jan, 2012 (1st) He's a fair tool, and keeps improving all the time. We've schooled him over hurdles and were thinking of going hurdling. We might still consider the Cheltenham bumper. It's 50-50. He settled lovely today but Cheltenham might blow his head. We have the alternative of running him in a few good novice hurdles to give him some experience. B R Hamilton
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Typical.
 This is what he said after the horses previous win: Brian Hamilton trains Moscow Mannon for Jonathan Flanagan and he said: "The owner turned down decent money for him after Galway. Declan rides out for Willie Mullins and he said this fellow is as good as anything Willie has down there. "We've had the Cheltenham bumper at the back of our minds for him. We'll see how things go now. "He's a fair decent horse and he's got a flat sort of pedigree. "We were a bit concerned about the ground but he answered that question today. "He could go for a bumper at Naas at the end of January and that'd make up our minds about Cheltenham." They ran him at the end of Januarys (though at Gowran not Naas) and as he romped home I assumed that would 'make their mind up about Cheltenham'. Seems like this inability to give s straight target is becoming endemic with all trainers.  |
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Have now laid off my entire stake at 16/1 on here so no harm done - will just have to decide whether to accept a lower price if/when he is confirmed as I hate taken less than I could have done.
I had similar stuff the year Dunguib won - I'd advised and backed him at 12/1 and then we had all the 'will he won't he' until just before the meeting. Laid my bet off at about 9/1 and then only had about a quarter of my stake on him on the day. If they don't run at Cheltenham the owner/trainer are bloody idiots. Novice hurdles can wait till next year. |
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Rumour's that a hefty offer has been accepted by owner Jonathan Flanagan for his weatherbys champion Bumper 2nd fav Moscow Mannan were dismissed yesterday(27th Jan).The six-year-old has landed three consecutive bumpers,concluding with Thursday's at Gowran.
Trainer Brian Hamilton said:"He's a very good horse and there are load's of offers on the table,but he's family-owned and they are people who are relatively new to racing so i think they want to go to Cheltenham.He's not actually on the market. PAGE14 SAT28TH RACING POST |
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Very late to think about goin hurdlin - will go to Chelt imo for the bumper
Plenty of time to go over hurdles next season |
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Why not go in to the Chestnut Inn in Ballygowan and ask the owner-might be a good place to be on the 14th of March
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He is my idea of the bumper winner at this stage, and looks to be improving with every run.
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If he were trained by Mullins and owned by JP he'd be about 5/1 fav.
 Might have to get my money back on soon - will be watching oddschecker like a hawk. |
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My idea of the winner too. 16s too big to ignore and prepared to take the hit if a N/R
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willie mullins offered 225k last week for this he was told no thanks willie
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I presume any one from 3 - RR JP MOL
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There is no doubt uncle, it's form makes for good reading. If there were no reports of hurdling, I would certainly take some of the 16s, but will be happy with 10s on the morning
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rpdarkhorse Justin O'Hanlon
Brian Hamilton reported today that Moscow Mannon will run in the Cheltenham bumper and that Declan Lavery is likely to keep the ride. |
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Superb news.
Ta BJG |
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Good enough for me.
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Confirmed runner irish racingpost 16-1 fair price
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Great news.... just had a little dabble at 16/1. Already 14.5 on here.
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maybe BOYCIE on atr will get his name right now called him DEREK today after winning at the MAZE imagine the thought of calling someone DEREK
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Good enough for me, this was on Mark Howards Diary..
Thursday 26th January 2012 Moscow Mannon (7/4), highlighted as a horse to follow in the Christmas Special, ran out a most impressive winner of the bumper at Gowran Park. Brian Hamilton's gelding had made a big impression when beating subsequent winner Joxer at Fairyhouse in December. The Moscow Society gelding missed the Festive period having been found to be coughing but he was back to full fitness with an easy win from the well regarded Morning Royalty. He is now second favourite with some firms for the Festival bumper in March and it will take a very good horse to beat him. The six year old looked a class act today. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
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I'm all for loyalty, but given the value and importance of the race I'd much prefer it if they took the opportunity to book a decent professional. I know the jockey has ridden him to his wins, but that was against other amateurs, and if push comes to shove (which hopefully it won't) it would be galling to see him beaten 1/2L by something ridden by McCoy, Walsh, Gerraghty, Thornton etc. Anyone remember Mighty Moss
But 16/1 is still widely available, and more than compensates for the jockey issue, so I've gone in again.  |
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Hate to dampen the ridiculous enthusiasm fot this horse but:
1.Has only run right handed. 2.Last won at Gowran which is the complete opposite of Cheltenham being an undulating right handed course with a downhill finish. 3.Trainer never had a runner at Cheltenham before 4 Jockey is a 7lb claiming amateur riding against Ruby etc. 5 Jockey never rode at Cheltenham before. So analysis: Inexperieced rider + Inexperienced Trainer Chances of success = o% Chances of having kittens= 100% |
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Been on the go since june,Looks like he prefers heavy ground (has won on good but that was at galway,beat nothing)
Not for me,thanks |
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Don't take much notice of the bumper, other than it is useful to know a year in advance what the beaten favourite in the Supreme will be. The analysis from TBFML struck me as being very inadequate though and has made me go and look at the horse as I suspect people having such views might allow for some value.
1. Most horses don't have a right or left hand preference so in the absence of a poor run left handed this point has little relevance. 2. Means we know he handles undulations then! Preference for a flat or undulating track is much more likely than caring which way round he goes. Sharp or Galloping is even more prevalent as a preference, so the fact he handled Fairyhouse says a lot. 3. So what, the bumper seems a good place to start then 4. So what, it is the bumper it's not like he's got to get the thing to jump? 5. Again, it's only a flat race, if he has the best horse he probably won't muck it up. If a lot of people are thinking like you then there may be some real value there. |
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Point 5 - I like kittens
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Anyone remember Mighty Moss,
------------------ Mr D G Lavery in a different parish then Mr Fred Hutsby imo,didn't panic at G0wran when many thought Morning Royalty had given him the slip. |
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*than*
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Some points worth making or repeating.
1.I notice young Lavery has ridden 13 times in 2 seasons.I suspect that only because the owners are very loyal his chances of him riding at Cheltenham for any other stable are equal to his chances of winning this race namely zilch even 2 He obviously deserves kudos for winning at Gowran but that was against 5 other horses not the hurly and burly and bumping-after all it is a bumper-at Cheltenham. 3.I wish the young lad good luck but even if the horse is good enough he will get carved up among the big boys |
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Yes Long run couldn't win the Gold Cup because of his jockey too. Only able to ride because of the loyalty of the owner. Zero chance.
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1 young Cohen had won the King George before the GC
2 Moscow M is no Long Run 3 Brian Hamilton in no Nicky Henderson |
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1. Indeed, he had no chance in that either
2. How do you know, could be anything yet 3. It's the Champion Bumper, what was Henderson's last winner in it? Those of us who can remember great victories by small handlers at the Festival know it can be done. Some of them don't stay small handlers mind you. Remember people being very sniffy about horses trained out in the sticks by MC Pipe even after Baron Blakeney had won the Triumph. Absolutely ridiculous to say what might be the best horse has ZERO chance because of who rides it and/or trains it. Especially when they have already trained and ridden it to the point where it has the best form in the race. By all means downgrade its chance slightly but to say ZERO is just plain wrong, as well as being frankly rude and ignorant. The horse has a chance. Best piece of advice I can give anyone is back HORSES not jockeys! |
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This horse beat Robin Angevin a neck at Galway.
Chelt Bump winning form??? I think not |
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The key here is that the trainer and jockey are factored into his price. If it was a Mullis or Nicholls horse with Ruby Walsh likely to be riding it would be 5/1 fav.
As for 'low-fat-what-a****' just go through nearly every Cheltenham bumper winners form and tell me you couldn't say a similar thing about nearly all of them - many of them had been beaten the time before. Moscow Mannon has shown a good level of progress with every run and was very impressive the last twice showing a high cruising speed, a willing attitude and being very strong at the end of his races finding plenty for pressure. He has won on good and heavy ground and seems very uncomplicated. 16/1 is a very fair price thats all I'm saying, and, assuming he runs, I bet I can lay off for a healthy free bet on the day so no damage if he loses - thats my kind of bet. |
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I've thought it for a long time, the bumper will be Mr Ferguson's first ever Cheltenham winner as a trainer. Population looks top draw imo. Great cruising speed, lovelly turn off foot should appreciate the ground come March.
Form of the bumper wins has also turned out very well! |
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Think he's got a few decent prospect in the Novice races, but cant see this one being good enough.
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Best price 10/1 now - I can pick em
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Has he won the race or something?
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Yes - but you won't get paid out for another month. Mums the word
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I'm 6 points to the good Uncle. WD
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