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can see where eric is coming from and it works both ways ......as an example oscars well was 25s pre pricewise tip at lads nrnb and the same price at billys normal ante post ....so no one in thier right mind would back it at billys, shirley .......hurricane fly is a risky propasistion ante post so i would if i was backing him feel more comfortable taking the nrnb option but its all about opinions ,different strokes for different folks .
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And he is essentially correct - just a little too rigid in what he's saying.
The important point to note is that each bet must be assessed differently, and that 2/1 NRNB for the Fly against 5/2 ante-post is not such a bad deal at all, given doubts about his wellbeing and with his prior injury track record. Generally speaking he's right, and for what it's worth, away from the likes of Hurricane Fly (for the above reasons), isn't it defeating the object a little? Surely we bet ante-post to try to grab some value in a horse's price, but betting NRNB means quite often you will take prices that are shorter than day-of-race odds. Sure, we back non-runners ante-post but when your 16/1 bet wins with an SP of 7/2 you're in clover. This is something that doesn't seem to get mentioned much at all - all those people backing horses NRNB must surely be left with terrible value bets on horses on the day of the race. Seems from what I've read on other threads that most of their proponents use the line that more often than not a horse that disappoints will no longer be targeted at a race, which leads to you getting your money returned. In my experience that's not true - there are stacks of horses that disappoint in trials and still run in the big races they were being prepared for. All NRNB backers are sitting with in that situation is a ticket for a horse with little chance and likely at half the price it is available on the day of the race. Man up and just stick with old fashioned ante-post I say, and just take the twists and turns with good grace! |
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It is possible to work out if NRNB is value over normal AP as follows. The only advantage you get is if your horse is a Non runner . e.g CH lad NrnB price v best price
Grandouet 6/1 v 7/1 this estimates an approx 17% chance of the horse not running Zarkander 7/1 v 8/1 " " " 14% "" " " " " " Binocular 11/2 v 10/1 " " " 90% " " " " " " Oscars Well 10/1 v 14/1 " " " 40% " " " Rock On Ruby 10/1 v 14/1 " " 40% " " If you think the % figure on the right is correct or could be higher then NRNB could be the best bet ,if you think its lower then I think it's probably always poor value to take NRNB. Lad NRNB prices look woeful on Binocular ,Oscars well and Rock on ruby and probably on Grandouet. Zarkanders price maybe OK given that if he doesn't run well in the BF hurdle he may not line up. Using this race as an example in most cases Lad NrNb prices are dreadful value though not always. |
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Quick question to knowledgeable posters - if the ground is frozen on the 13 March 2012 ( I pray to God it is not ) - what happens ? Do they pack it all in to 3 days ?????
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thats what they did the other year,3 years ago,or was it 4?
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That's effectively what they did after the wind incident 3 or 4 years ago. In the further past they've run bits of the meeting in April when it's been weathered off. That was also the initial plan in the foot and mouth year.
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ty
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That was my first ever festival; talk about being chucked in the deep end!!
Never forget having Silver Jaro in the County Hurdle in the last race of the festival at 50/1, and when Cousin Vinny won the bumper when it was virtually pitch black at 5:50 in March!!!! |
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Can imagine if the races are put back to say mid April for some reason. Ch Hurdle would probably be reopened and a new book formed with The Fly opening at about 4/6 and all our earlier bigger prices out the window.
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