Anyone agree that four champions to win again a decent bet around 50/1

50/1 seems OK, I think.

All 4 current Champs are top nothcers

HF
SE
BB
LR

The biggest question mark hanging over the current champs is for Hurricane Fly imo, and his race seems more competitive than the other championship events.

Cheers sint have followed your posts before and respect ur views. **** it goin to have a decent bet on it - for me anyway!

er well I am in sh1t form the last 7 days.

I'd not put more than a tenner on if I were you mate. gl.

Seems about right. Not sure what you'd get as a multiple NRNB with Laddies? They are all worthy favourites and SE & BB seem bomb proof to me. You'll be in a nice position if the first 3 come in

Been thinking this myself all week I fancy them all.

If still available 50/1 goood value - Lads 35/1 - frankly at that I'd sooner have a shot at a 33/1 shot in one of the handicaps

I think all four are worthy favs and therefore this bet would seem value, but closer inspection of the prices suggests that you can in fact get slightly bigger (fractions) by backing them all in an acca.

I don't see anything beating Bucks and Sizing, if the Fly gets there fit he'll be close to even money and the only thing that can stop Long Run winning the worst Gold Cup in history is his own jumping

Could disappear tomorrow if HF hacks up. I don't agree with horse9 that it's the "worst Gold Cup in history", but I do think Long Run is the most likely loser of the 4. However, you can lay it off on the Thursday night...

Stong - plenty disagree with me and I accept that, but I can't have a 12 year old who clearly was outstayed last year as being the form horse going into the race - also behind Long Run and Kauto I don't see much depth.
It's so bad I'll probably be backing the novice if he runs....

That's your call horse. But he's not any old 12 year old. I entirely agree there's not much depth beyond the front two unless something else steps up big time.

Hurricane would be only worry for me but there seems to be prolems with a lot of last years 2 mile stars. I think Long Run is a cert if he stays on his feet. Only Kauto seems to have the class to beat him but I don't think he's as good a stayer these days. I would rather do the individual NRNB acca in case Fly doesn't make it. If he under performs 2moro he might not even run there. Win-win situation imo.

Is there anything else that can step up ? Captain Chris was the live one and look at him today.
I totally agree Kauto isn't an ordinary 12 year old but I cannot accept he's improving - if Long Run kicks one too many out the ground and Kauto stops up the hill I dread to think what will win a blue ribband, could be another Nortons Coin moment.
Seriously, I stood there criticising everyone connected with Gloria Victis all them years ago for running the novice in the Gold Cup but if a gun was held to my head forcing me to back something in the race now, I'd be with Grand Crus, and he's a horse who's only chasing because he couldn't get near Big Bucks over hurdles

Where is this bet available? Thanks.

horse - I think Long Run could probably kick half of them out of the ground and still win. There'll probably be 10 grade 1 winners in the field (15 entered at this stage I think) - something decent will win the race.

bigal123, you're obviously still at the Romantic stage of the punter's life-cycle (cf. "The Five Stages Of The Gambler", Hutchinson, pub.1997). Unfortunately I'm gnarled & old and find myself boringly at stage 5 : 'Singles Only'. Far less sexy, but financially prudent. Good luck, nonetheless.

Horse - I've posted something similar on another thread last month in that a 'Norton's Coin' result could be on the cards for the reasons you state.
I also made a point that a one-paced plodder (with two stone to find) is likely to have everyone stupefied, by running a massive race.

After the first entry stage, many of those potential candidates were scratched, which I think connections may regret.

Long Run, as I see it is home & hosed even with a few sloppy jumps, and only a 'stopper' can prevent him from winning.
However, one rival to fear is not a good enough excuse for not turning up - I think EVERYTHING should have a go in a race with question marks over every runner!

I've said this before, and I'll repeat it, that Chicago Grey is tailor-made for this race, despite his official rating of 150, and I'm hoping connections use the supplementary stage to enter him after the Grand National weights are published, as that's an obvious target.

I've been wary of stating it too vehemently for fear of ridicule, but I've ALWAYS thought Kauto Star had suspect stamina - even when he won his second Gold Cup!

We ALL know that 'non-stayers' don't win Gold Cups, and the record book could be shoved under my hooter to shut me up, but the chasers in opposition at the time weren't (as now) exactly stellar!

He beat a similar sort of rival in Exotic Dancer in his first GC, then was blitzed by Denman, before beating that same rival who I very much doubt was at a peak in 2009 - he's been well exposed in the last couple of Gold Cups and I think it's on the cards again, though I would love to be wrong.

I can't stand the horse but Quito De La Roque looks a guaranteed stayer though I have strong reservations about his class/ability - he's a certain runner (at this moment) a safe conveyance, and will appreciate the demands of the race - he looks sure to be on the premises on the turn for home.

Scratch beneath the surface and there's little depth where it comes to having the necessary attributes to win this race.

Take Long Run out and QDLR is a stand out for me - there's absolutely no bias involved, but the weaknesses in the other runners are so obvious, it's become a process of elimination.

PS - Big Al...I think the accumulator is great value and I wouldn't put anyone off it!
Put it another way...I'd be sh*t scared of taking it as a bookie!

Well over 50/1 RIGHT NOW!
Even for the cowardly gambler, the first two favourites combined in each race makes it 16 bets, and if landing, the minimum reward is over 2/1!

Considering the second favs are obviously much bigger prices, the potential of the accumulator is huge - over £1907 for a tall vicar at prices NOW!

In chronological order;
Grandouet 8.4 & Hurricane Fly 2.84
Big Zeb 5.3 & Sizing Europe 3.25
Oscar Whisky 8.4 & Big Buck's 1.68
Kauto Star 5.1 & Long Run 3.4

If the first two races come in, then the third leg looks a sure thing...then it's lay off time

It never happens,but ive had a go at this bet-again!!
Did it last year and Bino withdrew before it got going!!!!

Its a bet that potentially can put you in nice positions if the first 2 come in.Particularly if you have others antepost,like the 2nd and 3rd favs for example.
Thats why i like the bet,plus it gives you a nice pay out if it does come off.

Hugh, may be in the minority, but I agree with you on Chicago Grey, and also that many connections will regret scratching their runners. Think come the Supplementary stage, there may be a one or 2 additions.

I think this one is more likely this year, because across all four races there is a serious lack of any second season novices that could potentially pose a big threat - therefore, a lot of the races mean the Champ will be taking on pretty much the same horses as last year, or less classy second season novices.

Champion Hurdle

Last year Peddlers Cross, Oscar Whisky and Menorah were all second season novices, who had put up some great performances in the year, added to the unknown in Hurricane Fly, Binocular was far from certain to win.  This year there are plenty of second season novices, but Spirit Son was by far the stongest imo, and that leaves Zarkandar who hasn't run, and Grandouet and Unnaccompanied only.

Champion Chase

Big Zeb was the Champ, but Sizing Europe as a second season novice and an Arkle winner added spice to the mix.  Arkle winners have a great record, and this year we don't have an Arkle winner in the race.  At the time, Woolcombe Folly was a second season novice, and had put up a great handicap performance earlier in the year.  Finians is the only unexposed one in the race who could upset things for the big 2 from last year

World Hurdle

Grands Crus was a very exiting second season novice, who put up an amazing performance in the Cleeve, that shook up the market in the WH.  This year, we have Oscar Whisky (not a second season novice, but most unexposed at 3m).  Apart from that (with the exception of 1000 stars), Big Bucks has beat or the others have stones to find

Gold Cup

Imperial Commander was the champ, but Long Run was a second season novice who had just won the King George, and therefore could be the unknown.  If Grands Crus doesn't run there is very little behind him that have the mix of speed, class and stamina to trouble the top 2.

Therefore, the point I'm trying to make is, there were a lot of uncertainties in the races last year, with plenty of unexposed young horses.  This next statement may come back to haunt me, but this year's seem a lot more cut and dry.

Also, this bet on here in the Cheltenham Accas bit is only 24.0

Who is this available with please lads? Got to be a good bet for a small stake imo.

It's with Lads CCM.

Couldn't find it on their site, so I had to go through Oddschecker and click on the 50.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/racing-specials/season-specials/cheltenham-festival/big-4-races-repeat-winners

Sid James only 33's

Hi

Go to the Ladbrokes site, Horse Racing, National Hunt 2011/12 Season specials.

Good punting

Forty

Cheers wc... just found it via the same route. Much obliged

Some good point here.
Strong - it may be true there are 15 grade one winners at this stage but most them win weak Irish affairs and I'm afraid the Irish challenge this year just looks awful (for the Gold Cup).

Good point (whoever made it) about connections regretting not declaring, Chicago Grey outstayed everything in the NH Chase last year and screamed 'Grand National', stamina is important but you still need the speed to go championship pace and does a horse who needed every yard of the 4m last year look a Gold Cup winner in waiting ?
Ordinarily I'd have to say no, but this year you just don't know....

Thanks as well forty

Chicago Grey?  Surely he'd have to set off the night before to have a chance! I'll look under almost any rock to try and find something to beat a big race favourite, especially at Cheltenham but I'd have to draw the line way short of that one!!

Well Chief - those prices were correct last night but now the Hurricane Fly price has gone!

It worked out well over 50/1 in multiplying them out - that's for sure!

Grandouet 10 (8.4) & Hurricane Fly 2.08 (2.84)
Big Zeb 5.3 & Sizing Europe 3.25
Oscar Whisky 8.4 & Big Buck's 1.68
Kauto Star 5.1 & Long Run 3.4

The figures in brackets are what they were before Hurricane Fly bounded in!

BB and HF are fast looking like penalty kicks.

50/1 about Sizing Europe and Long Run double isnt too shabby

Been going long enough to know that the big 4 never win, but still looks a good value bet.

Is only 16/1 now with Stans, but put them all in a lucky 15, using korals prices, whom are on average top price (evs, 2/1, 1/2, 5/2) that pays £135 to a £1 lucky = £15. Agree with CCM, fly/SE/BB win, lay off the 4 leg part at what will surely be much shorter on the day that 5/2 if all goes well with LR!

Ok, idiot me, didnt think, 16/1 is far better than the lucky. Oops

if its still 50s then it is worth a go for smallish  stakes ,usually i would not entertain it but this year it looks as tho the 4 champs could win their races almost by default and serious challengers are dropping like flys ,may throw a £10-20 at this bet and see what happens ,

No chance whatsoever of 50s now.

feck me its on!!!

The prices right now (above) work out at 37/1 - still not bad value

it's tempting but I know if I get involved there will be a totally head wrecking development before the Festival starts - Sizing Europe will get transit fever again, Hendo's PA will forget to confirm Long Run at the 5 day stage, Zarkandar will sprout wings and win the Totesport by 437 lengths, Big Bucks will develop a grass allergy

...yep, something like that.

Reaseheath - LOL

Glad I took the 50/1 with Lads, looks like they've opted out of thus market now altogether ! Top price 28/1 with PP which is probably a more accurate reflection of what the SP accum would pay. Think the first three will take all the beating.....its Long Run I'd be worried about....

Been a fair bit of money for this - Lads taken down, PP was 33/1 yesterday, less on here... seems a fair few ppl think it cld happen.

ReaseHeath Joined: 15 May 04
Replies: 6864 29 Jan 12 20:48   


it's tempting but I know if I get involved there will be a totally head wrecking development before the Festival starts - Sizing Europe will get transit fever again, Hendo's PA will forget to confirm Long Run at the 5 day stage, Zarkandar will sprout wings and win the Totesport by 437 lengths, Big Bucks will develop a grass allergy

...yep, something like that.

Think the same as you Markphisto... but if the first 3 go in, we'll all be in a very nice position with Long Run and can lay him accordingly!

I decided today, a week to late, to to all 4 in an accy with laddy. I assume it is still nrnb, even on an accy?

Just seen this thread. Its a fantastic bet!!
trying to find the best price

50/1 was for muppets - I advised it at 66/1 weeks before the OP.

Give credit where it's due  - to me

Saw your ost Uncle. Credit where its due.... happy with 50's, would be delighted with 66's!

Only myself to blame for not seeing the 66's available elsewhere Uncle. Not going to lose any sleep over it though....hope we get a good run for our money. CCM - If we are waiting on Long Run we'll be in a great position alright.

Hills have pushed this out to 33s on their website .
Have invested a few sheckles!

cheers Leo,just had another nibble at 33.

Tom Segal gave this bet a good write up in todays RP Weekender....he's kicking himself he didn't take 100/1 when he saw it ages ago LOL !

No worries budd let's hope we're all sweating on the Friday!!

Mark - that puts some of his Pricewise AP sleections into presepctive

True Strontium, never thought of that ! None of them appealed to me at all so far...but if fairness to him putting up horses at big prices in the Championship races this year looks a tough task. But wouldn't make any excuses for him putting up Menorah in the Arkle...thought he looked a shadow of himself over hurdles at Cheltenham this year....never mind his record over fences !!

This is lookin better and better by the day!!!

Boiles were going 28/1 immediately after the race. I've helped myself to some of that having missed the big prices

Getting quite excited about this bet myself now!

cheltenham is exciting anyway! spending all my time now going through form, watching replays and reading trends and then checking entries against them...

lets hope its all worthwhile Judo

it's the PPPPPP method

proper preparation prevents p1ss poor performance

Trust me - my luck means there is bound to be a late non runner, or one of the 4 will fall at th elast with the race won.

I do the Betfair golf competition and this week I mistakenly put 4 selections down for the Qatar masters - the one I told them to chalk off was Paul Lawrie

Best of luck to you guys for the quad. Just one thing to point out... you never see a broke bookies !!! tbh it should be about 100/1 for the quad. All you need is a donkey falling in front of /Bringing down one of the quads - Endsville!!. I wish you guys/gals the best of luck anyway.

Every time I turn on Channel 4 I see a fat, pompous, ignorant, loudmouthed, ridiculously dressed broken bookie...

It certainly is Judo. I'll be counting sleeps to go before I know it!

King - 100/1 with the first three likley to be no bigger than evens?! Would you like to lay me some of that?

I think the bet will fall, but I wish I was on at 50's actually 33 would be good.  Good luck to all and at least I hope they all make it to the festival.

Which do you see as the weak link Shockster?

I know 99% of people (including myself) will be gutted about the Kauto news.

However, there is one crumb of comfort.  The top price acca you can now get on this bet is just under 14/1!!!

Think 14/1 a crazy price but glad i backed it for £100 at 50/1 :). Really hope the first three go in as im off work and at the pub on the friday and would be a great buzz!

Sorry to put this in but the four reigning champions have NEVER retained their crowns.
According to a recent arcticle three out of four has also never happened.
Even worse is the fact that only two reigning champs have won -6 times ever and only 4 times in the last 50 years!!

Like most on here I find it hard to find alternative winners but I am quoting the facts.

Are the novices usually as bad as last year though? I do fancy all the favourites to win but not sure what odds I am to get 4 races correct! :D

Because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it can't happen this year. I clocked this bet as a 2012 Special in December and snapped up the 66s with P.Power.

it was 134-1 last march that the big four would retain their crowns....