Wow. That's the first time i've seen/heard someone say that, Harry. The 4m novice chase with amatuers up is your favourite race? Streuth, mate. It is certainly a puzzle to solve so I can see the appeal there.

Last yeah I backed Mobaasher for this ante-post at 20/1 and he went off 13/2 on the day. Made a bad mistake at the 13th and then ran on to finish 5th.

Iron Chancellor was quietly impressive last time out, 25/1 seems a fair price at this stage and duly had a few quid on. Will get the distance imo.

Believe it or not sint just think it is a cracking horse race...

I know it seems funny but I love amateur rider races as no one is interested in them and thus if I put the time in I find nice rewards...funnily have had my biggest win on an amateur race without sounding a complete p****

Agree about Iron C but just not sure what he has actually achieved so far but also think looks an out and out stayer in the making if he goes on...

CCM
Just convinced he'll have a winner this festival. Last year it was Bensalem, the year prior it was zero due to stable problem, and the year before it was the horse in the Grand Annual which I forget.

No idea tbh. We're both as sh1t as each other in truth.
We really need our full backs back to give the defence some solidity. Diaby might be back soon aswell but I wont hold my breath. AC Milan soon.

Thats exactly how I see it mate! Chelsea not much better either. Reckon Wilshere will be paying out though

And Luiz! He's a good footballer but an absolutely terrible defender.

Maringo to Strike in 4 Miler
2012-02-10 11:45:00

1pt Maringo Bay @ 33/1 to win the National Hunt Chase

One of the most common failings amongst punters is sentimentality, typically about a horse we've won on previously. How many people who backed Al Ferof, First Lieutenant or Bob's Worth at last season's Festival are following them almost blindly this year despite the fact they're all skinny prices for what they've shown over fences this season? This isn't a secret - we all know about the risk of sentimentality, which shows just how hard it is overcome.

I'm usually pretty good at not getting sentimental with horses but am much less good at not getting sentimental about the 4 miler. It used to be my luckiest race at the Festival as it generally had a great betting shape. However, the race conditions have changed hugely and I haven't had the winner since Another Rum went in at 40/1 in 2005. It's a race that gets far less focus than the other novice chases so it should still provide good betting opportunities - and I'm determined to get it right this year.

Nowadays the race is open to horses who’ve won hurdle races in previous seasons but the key change was the removal of penalties which had really helped the race from a betting point of view, (4lb for winning a chase and 7lb for winning 2 or more). That may not have sounded much but over 4m it made a huge difference and in the last 10 runnings before it became a level weights race in 2010, only Butler's Cabin defied the double penalty and half the winners were maidens over fences. The race was generally priced up on novice chase form over much shorter trips - ie those at the top of the market tended to be penalised horses that were questionable stayers (6 of the favourites were saddled with the double penalty, all were beaten).

Some of the criteria for the race remain unchanged - arguably the most important being to know your jockey. There is still a vast spectrum of riding skills on show and unlike most amateur rider's races, the jockeys can't claim, enhancing the advantage the best pilots give you. If you'd just picked a horse ridden by one the best jockeys in recent years you'd have had 5 of the last 6 winners on your shortlist with Derek O'Connor, Katie Walsh, Sam Waley-Cohen, Charlie Huxley & Richard Harding all recognised as one of the best riders the year they won.

The 2006 running was a classic example - I was adamant that a horse called Beantown should have been amongst the favourites not a 40/1 shot. I knew nothing much about his jockey Mr P Tobin and stupidly didn't try and find out, being so blinded by the horse's underrated qualities. Watching Mr Tobin and Beantown go down by a fast diminishing neck, under what politely would be called an injudicious ride, was pretty chastening. We don't know riding arrangements at this stage which is a crucial risk in ante-post betting in this race, and a good reason not to take a shortish price until you know who is riding the horse you want to back.

The other key factor is experience. Like the RSA, this isn't a race for horses who aren't battle hardened over fences - the last two winners Poker De Sivola and Chicago Grey had run in 11 and 9 chases respectively. With all that in mind, is there a horse that jumps out at this stage or is it a year to wait until closer to the race?

Harry The Viking (8/1) is the obvious place to start. He's on a 5 timer, the last two wins being in decent contests at Doncaster, beating Saint Are (won a Grade 1 novice hurdle last season) 3/4l over 3m and then edging out Ikorodu Road in a handicap off 129 (3m2f). He's a really idle type so it would be no surprise to see him prove himself much better than the bare form. That doesn't make him the obvious type for an amateur rider's race though. He's also entered for the Haydock Grand National Trial which implies connections are considering other priorities than the Festival. Given all that I couldn't back him now. Picture This (16/1) is in the same ownership and so when combined with his lack of experience (2 chase runs spread over 15 months) he's easy to pass over.

Soll (10/1) has only had 5 races in his life and only 2 chases. He broke his maiden last week at 2/5 beating Harpsy Chord 4 1/2l (levels) in a 2m4f beginners chase at Down Royal. The runner up had been beaten 27l on his other chase start so the quality of his form and his lack of experience (Willie Mullins doubted he'd have the chance to get another run into him before the Festival) makes him easy to oppose. When looking at the front two in the betting it's worth noting that the champion trainers, Nicholls and Mullins, haven't had even a placed horse in the last decade (though Mullins has had only 3 runners, compared to Nicholls 10).

Teaforthree (14/1) has looked a decent staying type on two good runs this season, firstly at Cheltenham when getting within 1 1/2l of leading RSA fancy Join Together (3m1f, levels), before beating Restless Harry 3 1/2l at Chepstow (3m, levels). That form puts him right in contention for this but the Chepstow race was on heavy ground which Rebecca Curtis believes he's best on (targeting the Welsh National next season) and so I couldn't back him at this stage.

By contrast, Fists of Fury (14/1) has been campaigned with a view to finding the best ground possible (sent over by Charles Byrnes to win a Wetherby beginners chase in November - form has not worked out). By far his best bare form was last time when splitting Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone in a tight finish in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown - but that was over 2m5f and I'm not sure he's the out and out stayer he's been made out to be.

Lambro (14/1) is also entered for the Jewson and RSA and definitely doesn't look the type for this (beaten only 3 1/2l by subsequent runaway Grade 1 winner Flemenstar over 2m (levels) last time out) and I'd be really surprised if he lined up.

A key line of Irish form for this might be the Grade 2 at Naas (3m, soft/heavy) last month which saw Medical Card (16/1) edge out Crash (16/1) and the odds-on Allee Garde (16/1) with Four Commanders (25/1) a close 4th (levels). Allee Garde is the only one of the 4 with any form on decent ground and I'm not convinced by the strength of the Naas race. Allee Garde and Medical Card both have RSA entries and Crash appeals as the most likely winner, but his odds about reflect his chance.

Of the others near the top of the market there are plenty that are easy to oppose at this stage, such as Loose Preformer (14/1) (inexperienced having had only 4 runs in his life, 2 over fences, one of which he jumped round alone), Merchant Royal (20/1) who looks more likely to go for the Foxhunter and Oscar Dan Dan (16/1) who looks on the downgrade as a 10 year old. Viking Blond (20/1) showed useful form when not disgraced behind Grands Crus at Newbury and was a close 4th to Join Together at Cheltenham. However Nigel Twiston-Davies is adamant he needs really soft ground so, like Teaforthree, it's a watching brief for now.

There are plenty in with chances at this early stage in what is looking a wide-open renewal. My ante-post shortlist would include Universal Soldier (16/1) who has looked a good novice when encountering decent ground, going down by 1l (levels) to the useful Chariot Charger at Uttoxeter (3m) on his fencing debut and when slamming Chartreux over an extended 3m at Towcester. He jumped well on his first start for Charlie Longsdon and this 142 rated hurdler looks as likely a winner as any at this stage. He's to have one more race before going for the 4 miler. Another who looked the right type for this was Benbane Head (25/1) but he was pulled up as if amiss when running off 136 behind The Minack last time. He had previously looked a decent out and out staying novice on fast ground. If he were to prove his wellbeing before the Festival he would come into it.

However, the line of form that has impressed me most was a heavy ground 3m novice chase at Chepstow in December where Alfie Spinner (generally 12/1, though a standout 16s with Coral) beat Maringo Bay (33/1) by 1 1/4l (levels). Alfie Spinner is a confirmed mudlark (long term aim is next season's Welsh National) who relished that ground and it's hard to see why Maringo Bay isn't a similar price, especially as Charlie Mann believes that the race came too soon for Maringo Bay (22 days since his previous run) and he ran flat [LISTEN HERE].

Maringo Bay was a 138 rated novice hurdler last season, (beat Teaforthree easily at Ffos Las) and was a close 3rd to Mamlook on his sole try over fences. On his seasonal reappearance he ran a fine race in a strong 2m4f novice chase at Plumpton won by the smart Invictus, where he got within 1l of Gift of Dgab (who gave 7lb) for 2nd. The runner up has since finished 2nd in a Grade 1 and the winner is held in high regard by Alan King so this looks smart form. There are 2 reasons why I'm hopeful he can step up on it.

Firstly, he's by a Strong Gale mare whose progeny have liked good, quick ground which he hasn't encountered yet, and who have been stayers. However, whilst Charlie Mann says he'll stay 4m and that he jumps well, contrary to what Maringo Bay's breeding suggests, Mann believes he needs some cut in the ground and if the Festival ground came up really quick he wouldn't run (not entered in any of the other level weights novice chases). The second positive is the form of Charlie Mann's stable, which having had only a couple of winners in the previous 2 months, has hit form with 2 winners and 3 seconds from his last 5 runners which augers better for 5 weeks time.

As Mann says, it's likely that the top amateur jockey, Derek O'Connor, will be booked by an Irish stable but he'd be a massive boost to Maringo Bay's chances if he did ride, and even for a trainer who's generally positive about his horse's chances, to talk about booking the number one rider has to be a vote of confidence.

At this stage the race looks particularly open and race specialists like Jonjo O'Neill and Ferdy Murphy don't look to have an obvious contender. Maringo Bay is the one horse who looks a lot better than his current price indicates and with none of those at the front of the market having strong credentials I'm keen to risk fast ground ruling him out and have a small bet on this 33/1 shot now, before looking at the race again nearer the time.


http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/maringo-to-strike-in-4-miler/article/845600

Totally agree MC. It makes such a change to read quality write ups instead of the sometimes childish utterances you read on here sometimes.... Respect BJG.

great work, nice read.

Nice write up BJG and might have a small bet on him as have been grafting in this race and he is a nice price considering his form...just wonder if he wants a tad more cut in the ground but at the price he isn't a forlorn hope..

Nobody mentioned the winner yet.....Start Me Up looks tailor made for the race. Stays all day, goes on any ground, running a blinder at Cheltenham last year until badly hampered and absolutley cantering over 3m 5f last week when brought down on the bend. He's a stayer with a touch of class and if his jumping holds up (can fiddle the odd one) must go very close

Given that Gigginstown will probably only run two in the race (Fists of Fury plus one other) it's quite possible that Start Me Up will run in either the Kim Muir or WH or possibly just wait for the Irish National. I agree theres a pot in him alright.

I would largely agree with most of what you say above yort. I am coming from Gigginstowns point of view in guessing what will run where. On his last run in a good graded race Fists of Fury would be deemed to be there number one horse. Assuming he turns up then Derek O' Connor will ride him. After that I believe whether Medical card runs or not will be a deciding factor on whether Start Me Up runs. Charlie Swan would be very keen to book Nina for the ride but she would be unavailable if Meades has a run. If this was the case I wouldn't be surprised if Swan redirected him for another race. I, like you, believe the horse would relish the step up in trip. He has a touch of class and also stays extremely well. I was at Galway a few years ago when he was running under a penalty in a 2m4f winners bumper. He was best for most of the race but battled on gamely up the hill to get on top near the line. He next went to Cheltenham for another bumper on better ground and hosed up suggesting a stiff finish suits him very well (many of his better runs last year also came on tracks with uphill finishes). If he runs he would have an outstanding chance but I would say his participation would be questionable if Nina is unavailable (Kevin Power would be a suitable replacement imo should both he and Medical Card run). I would be surprised if Crash doesn't run as all he does is stay and connections would be keen to give him the opportunity to run in a four mile novice chase as it's his only opportunity to do so. It is quite likely that Robbie McNamara will ride him (or JT if Robbie is claimed by Weld).

Basically I think there are a couple of variables to be considered when deciding to back Start Me Up ante post as outlined above. While they often run numerous horses in the same race here I would be a little surprised if they adopt such tactics in Cheltenham and instead spread them out between the other races. In addition if Nina isn't available then I wouldn't be surprised if Start Me Up is rerouted to another race even though personally I feel the NH Chase to be his best chance of winning.

Don't dismiss Rocky Creek on what he;s done so far on the track, I know connections think a hell of alot of this horse and there'll be improvement in him come March....

Some eyecatchin runs today - Four Commanders stays longer than the mother in law!

Scratching made for 22
The remainder pay scratching deadline fee

Alfie Spinner (IRE) (Alan Beard & Brian Beard) Nick Williams ............................. 7 11 6
Allee Garde (FR) (Doran Bros (London) Limited) W. P. Mullins, Ireland............ 7 11 6
Baile Anrai (IRE) (Massive) Ian Williams.......................................................................... 8 11 6
Ben’s Folly (IRE) (Mr David Lovell) Tim Vaughan........................................................ 7 11 6
Benbane Head (USA) (Mrs Louise Jones) Martin Keighley..................................... 8 11 6
Beneficial Reform (IRE) (Mr M. Tedham) James Ewart............................................ 7 11 6
Best Legend (IRE) (Mr Patrick Heffernan) Stuart Crawford, Ireland .................. 10 11 6
Blenheim Brook (IRE) (The County Set Three) Lucinda Russell.......................... 7 11 6
Bob ’n’ You (IRE) (Mr T. J. & Mrs H. Parrott) Ian Williams..................................... 9 11 6
Brunswick Gold (IRE) (Mr P. J. Martin) Steve Gollings.............................................. 7 11 6
Call Box (IRE) (Mr S. McAlister) Stuart Crawford, Ireland ...................................... 7 11 6
Cotswold Charmer (IRE) (The Double Octagon Partnership)
Nigel Twiston-Davies........................................................................................................... 7 11 6
Cottage Oak (IRE) (Mrs Pat Sloan) Gordon Elliott, Ireland .................................... 9 11 6
Court Red Handed (IRE) (Mr P. Chapman) Sarah Humphrey............................... 7 11 6
Daffern Seal (IRE) (Dr R. Lambe) D. K. Weld, Ireland............................................. 8 11 6
Definite Dawn (IRE) (Mr Robert Kirkland) Tim Vaughan......................................... 8 11 6
Eight Is My Number (M White/M Reeder/E Johansen-Wooder)
Gordon Elliott, Ireland........................................................................................................ 6 11 6
Fists of Fury (IRE) (Gigginstown House Stud) Charles Byrnes, Ireland .............. 8 11 6
Four Commanders (IRE) (Gigginstown House Stud) M. F. Morris, Ireland...... 6 11 6
Glens Boy (IRE) (Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford) Henrietta Knight................... 8 11 6
Gorge (AUS) (Mrs R. N. Cosgriff) Anthony Cosgriff................................................... 10 11 6
Graduation Night (Martin Broughton Racing Partners) Jamie Snowden ............ 6 11 6
Harry The Viking (Sir A Ferguson,G Mason,R Wood & P Done)
Paul Nicholls ........................................................................................................................... 7 11 6
Iron Chancellor (IRE) (Mrs Lesley Field,J Sigler & D Anderson) Alan King...... 7 11 6
King of The Refs (IRE) (Mr E. Waters) A. J. Martin, Ireland .................................. 7 11 6
Leggy Lad (IRE) (Mr Michael McConville) S. McConville, Ireland......................... 9 11 6
Lively Baron (IRE) (Mr Trevor Hemmings) Donald McCain.................................... 7 11 6
Loose Preformer (IRE) (Kerr-Dineen, Lloyd Webber & Nielsen)
Nicky Henderson.................................................................................................................. 6 11 6
Manger Hanagment (IRE) (Robert Rafferty/S. McAuley)
Gordon Elliott, Ireland........................................................................................................ 7 11 6
Marble House (IRE) (Mrs S. Neville) Seamus Neville, Ireland ............................... 6 11 6
Maringo Bay (IRE) (John & Peter Heron) Charlie Mann .......................................... 7 11 6
Mister Hyde (IRE) (Bensaranat Club & Mr W McLuskey) Jonjo O’Neill ........... 7 11 6
Mister Philson (IRE) (Mr L. Phillips) Stuart Crawford, Ireland .............................. 7 11 6
Monbeg Dude (IRE) (Oydunow) Michael Scudamore................................................ 7 11 6
Negus de Beaumont (FR) (Mr J. Tierney & F. Murphy) Ferdy Murphy............ 11 11 6
Nodebateaboutit (Sharon C. Nelson & Dermot O’Donohoe) Tom George ... 7 11 6
Not So Sure **** (IRE) (Peter Earl, Lin Baker & Irene Paterson)
George Baker......................................................................................................................... 7 11 6
Oscar Close (IRE) (Mr Wayne Hennessey) George Baker....................................... 7 11 6
Oscar Dan Dan (IRE) (Mrs M. Martin) A. J. Martin, Ireland................................... 10 11 6
Our Island (IRE) (Mr D. W. Fox) Tim Vaughan ............................................................ 7 11 6
Rif (FR) (The Patient Partnership) Alex Hales................................................................. 7 11 6
River d’Or (FR) (G. Doel & C. J. Leech) Sophie Leech............................................. 7 11 6
Robobar (FR) (Mr D. W. Fox) Ian Williams..................................................................... 7 11 6
Sensational Sema (IRE) (Pats Bar Syndicate) A. J. Martin, Ireland...................... 8 11 6
Soll (Mr Derrick Mossop) W. P. Mullins, Ireland ............................................................. 7 11 6
State Benefit (IRE) (Mr Michael Buckley) Nicky Henderson ................................. 7 11 6
Strongbows Legend (Box A45) Charlie Longsdon ...................................................... 7 11 6
Teaforthree (IRE) (T437) Rebecca Curtis ....................................................................... 8 11 6
Trendelenburg (IRE) (Barstool Prophets Syndicate) Gordon Elliott, Ireland .... 7 11 6
Universal Soldier (IRE) (Lindie Donaldson & Regan King) Charlie Longsdon. 7 11 6
Up The Beat (Mrs A. M. Varmen/R. J. D. Varmen) W. P. Mullins, Ireland.......... 7 11 6
Viking Blond (FR) (Mrs Caroline Mould) Nigel Twiston-Davies ............................ 7 11 6
Your Busy (IRE) (Mr Ronan O’Gara) James A. Nash, Ireland ................................. 9 11 6
Taratata Sivola (FR) (Palatinate Thoroughbred Racing Limited) David Pipe.... 5 11 4
Askanna (IRE) (J. Asple) Colin Bowe, Ireland................................................................ 7 10 13
Mid Div And Creep (Mrs K. Exall) Lawney Hill............................................................ 12 10 13
Our Victoria (IRE) (R. Furlong) Colin Bowe, Ireland ................................................. 7 10 13

WHAT ABOUT Soll

What was everyone's thoughts on Teaforthree at Chepstow today? Won well enough but despite preparing to get stuck in to him at 12/1, I am worried about the fact that that race may have taken a little bit out of him with only 2 weeks to go. Anyone at Chepstow today who thinks otherwise or has their own opinion?????

Rebecca Curtis is looking forward to running Teaforthree in the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase after his victory at Chepstow on Saturday.

The eight-year-old got back on the winning path in a three-mile novice chase after being pulled up behind Grands Crus in the Feltham Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Curtis is confident Teaforthree will see out the four-mile trip at Prestbury Park on March 14. He is being aimed at that race rather than the RSA Chase.

"He's come out of it really well. AP (Tony McCoy) said they didn't go too quick and he looked after him for the Festival. He said he could have made him look more impressive," said the Newport trainer.

"He's definitely going for the four-miler at Cheltenham now. The trip will be no bother for him."

Good reading on this thread. I'm just having a good look at this race. What are your thoughts on Glens Boy?