Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I have two entries in the four-miler and Sir Alex Ferguson part owns both. Picture This got a leg last season and was only half fit when winning a match at Folkestone first time up; he is better than that.
But if he runs at the Festival, it could be in a handicap. But the National Hunt Chase is something that I have had in mind for Harry The Viking all season, and he showed all the attributes that you need for this marathon test when battling to win a 3m2f handicap at Doncaster last time. He is a true stayer.
But if he runs at the Festival, it could be in a handicap. But the National Hunt Chase is something that I have had in mind for Harry The Viking all season, and he showed all the attributes that you need for this marathon test when battling to win a 3m2f handicap at Doncaster last time. He is a true stayer.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 100
|
By:
Sometimes, well pretty much every year actually, a horse jumps out that is screaming - absolutely SCREAMING - for the four miles of this race.
This year is no exception. |
|
By:
I think there is 2 in this that are - unfortunately they are the ones that everyone thinks needs it!
Soll bein 1 - was expectin a much bigger price tbh |
|
By:
HTV was the other - Teaforthree the only other one of remote interest at this stage
|
|
By:
The old adage that “it is a lady’s prerogative to change her mind” might well be behind some rather mixed signals coming from the Rebecca Curtis yard as to what is the ultimate target at the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival for her talented sort Teaforthree, writes Elliot Slater.
A decent staying novice hurdler last term where he finished third to Mossley in Grade 2 company at Cheltenham’s December fixture before going to run come eighth to Bobs Worth in the Neptune Investment Management Novices Hurdle at the festival three months later, the gelded son of Oscar had shown progressive form this term as a novice chaser placing at both Chepstow and Cheltenham before beating the useful Restless Harry in heavy ground over three-miles back at Chepstow in December. Anyone looking at the Cheltenham Festival odds should remember this. Curtis freely admits that she then made a mistake in asking the eight-year-old to go up against the likes of Grand Crus and Silviniaco Conti in the Grade 1 Feltham Novices Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, a race run over a sharp three-miles on ground that is almost certainly too lively for her charge. As a result Teaforthree was quickly outpaced entering the final mile when the tempo was raised and was eventually pulled up when tailed off before the third from home. Having declared after his Chepstow win that her horse was to be aimed at the four-mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham’s showcase fixture, it has come as something of a surprise to learn that Curtis is planning to send her charge to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle in early February over two-miles, a somewhat unorthodox preparation for a marathon chase. Bookmakers rate Teaforthree a 14/1 co-favourite for the Cheltenham event, (a race restricted to amateur riders), and should the ground come up testing and he come through his Welsh test unscathed, Curtis’ charge would go into the race with serious prospects of making his presence felt. |
|
By:
The horse I'm thinking of is a 25/1 shot at the moment....hoping for bigger when all the firms go up.
|
|
By:
2nd bet of a very light AP portfolio.
Harry the Viking 9/1. Nothing original but a decent enough price. |
|
By:
P.s. I would love to know which firm were going 14/1 co-favs as stated iIn BJG's paste.
 |
|
By:
I'd be expecting Crash to turn up for this and he looks like he would gallop all day and jumps fine. Probably even prefer the better ground too over a trip like this.
|
|
By:
That quote was from a while back DD
Soll runs tomorrow |
|
By:
there are a variety of penalties that apply for this race which depend on the number and type of victories achieved prior to the race - usually it pays to carry no more than the minimum penalty which is 3lbs I believe (think there is also a 7lb and a 10lb penalty that can be awarded). So just watch out for those horses that have racked up a bunch of wins - the ones that have been plotted up will be carrying less.
I remember Jonjo moaning that his horse, Native Imperial, got an extra penalty for winning when the horse he was following home fell leaving him clear ... he still won the 4 miler though |
|
By:
^nonsense, imvho
|
|
By:
you are welcome to counter imvho if you have something to add
|
|
By:
otherwise stfu knut
|
|
By:
Weights: 5-y-o......11st 4lb; 6-y-o and up.......11st 6lb
Mares allowed.........................................7lb |
|
By:
There isn't even a single penalty line in the 4 miler let alone 'a variety' of them, you pea-brained fakhwit.
|
|
By:
Penalties were removed from 2010.
|
|
By:
lol gotta love the ones that abuse all round em
den get proved wrong Some very angry people about imo  |
|
By:
Judorick - the forum clown
 Al Ferof SHOULD NOT run in the Arkle.... He's finished outside the first two in a chase dontcha know.  |
|
By:
Actually, is this not a golden example of why the sociopunting group "statstwats" frequently fall flat on their faces when trying to defend their slave-like devotion to 'the stats'?
They look at the last ten years (why ten I've always wondered....beyond it being a nice numnber that the human brain finds comforting) of this and that but seem unwilling (or unable) to acknowledge that the fixture list, race programme therein and eligibity and conditions of the races within that programme are all subject to change and alteration from one season to the next...and even the races that haven't changed are pulled and pushed about by races that have. Or, in the case of the National, THEY just would not have a horse winning off more than 11st "because it hasn't happened since Red Rum so therefore won't happen until another Red Rum comes along" even though the guy who sets the weights had massively changed his methodology and there were roughly 20 times more horses running off 11st or more than in the period the 'stats' had been built up. |
|
By:
Anyway....back to the 4 miler.
FOUR COMMANDERS (NAP)  |
|
By:
Soll wins fairly comfortably - interested to hear what WPM says after
|
|
By:
Charles Byrnes believes Fists Of Fury rubber-stamped his credentials for the Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham following his fine effort in defeat at Leopardstown on Saturday.
The eight-year-old chestnut has shown a good level of form since he was sent chasing this season, and only went down by half a length to Sir Des Champs in a Grade Two over an inadequate trip at the weekend. Byrnes is convinced a step up to four miles at the Cheltenham Festival on March 14 could now work in his favour. He said: "Fists Of Fury ran a very good race and was fine afterwards. "He likes that good to yielding ground - that would be when he is at his best. "That was a nice trial for Cheltenham. He'll go there a fresh horse as he won't be running before then. "He's not the quickest in the world by any means, but he jumps well and he stays - that's the main thing in a race like the four-miler at Cheltenham." |
|
By:
Headmaster.... be interested to know why you fancy Four Commanders so much? What makes you so confident he will get the trip? Cheers
|
|
By:
Champion trainer Willie Mullins set another landmark today when becoming the fastest to 100 winners in an Irish season as Soll strolled to victory in the beginners chase at Down Royal.
The 2/5 favourite, with Ruby Walsh up, led from the front and scored by four-and-a-half-lengths for his Cumbrian owner Derrick Mossop who was in attendance. “He’s a big baby but hopefully he has a big future,” Mr Mossop said. Willie Mullins gave an indication of Soll’s talent when he said: “He’ll probably go for the four mile chase at Cheltenham. “You saw how green he was passing the post. I doubt he’ll run between now and Cheltenham. I would like to get another run into him but it may be too close.” |
|
By:
CCM - everytime he runs he leaves me with the impression he's a future National winner. His chases so far:
09/10 'kept on well' 04/11 'kept on well' 20/11 'kept on same pace' 26/12 'kept on' 21/01 'kept on' The lad's aching for this imo. In an ideal world I'd want him a year older and the ground with a bit of juice but you can't have everything! |
|
By:
Fair enough, I respect your opinion. I've watched a couple of his races and whilst he was plodding on, I never felt like he was staying on well enough to suggest he is crying out for the step up, but will take another look!
|
|
By:
Headmaster, I remember you coming up with Old Benny in your preview for this race a couple of years back (and followed you in a result
 ) so was looking forward to see the one for this year - after your original post I had come to the conclusion it might be Iron Chancellor. Will follow this one with a bit more interest now! |
|
By:
I got IC added to the makret on here the other week, only because connections said he will run. 25/1 to price I think.
|
|
By:
IC = Iron Chancellor.
Anyone know if Henry Daly entered The Falklander please .. |
|
By:
Will be swigging on a nice, cold bottle of Sol to celebrate Soll's victory in this
|
|
By:
wheres Judo gone??
|
|
By:
I'll swerve the Irish given a a pretty lousy recent record in this race. The exception in the last 10 years was Chicago Grey and he was pretty exclusive prepped across the Channel and mainly at Cheltenham. For me at this stage teaforthree, and one to watch Sybarite who might significantly improve for the step up in trip. Lots of average form at the track but NTD apparently always thought the world of the horse.
|
|
By:
Baile Anrai has a each way chance as he seems to be a improving horse who looks likely to be suited by a further step up in trip and who has won on a variety of ground
|
|
By:
To be fair to the angry judo fella this race did used to have some very odd conditions and penalties. Reckon he must be using an old Paul Jones book as that would have highlighted such trends. Seem to recall as well as penalties that it was limited to horses that were complete maidens at the start of the season, no hurdles wins or flat or anything? They then presumably decided that having a 4 mile novice chase for amateur riders was fcuked up enough without diluting the quality of the horses with strange rules.
|
|
By:
Should not be swearing at people on here anyway,especially the c word,and if you do its best to get yer facts right before doing that.
|
|
By:
He does get a bit cross doesn't he? I suspect high blood sugar.
Teaforthree for me by the way but I have a horrible record in this race, before and after the new rules, so I've probably murdered the poor bugga just by mentioning it! |
|
By:
that Four Commanders is particularly well bred for a staying chaser, an interesting one alright.
|
|
By:
To help consolidate my own thoughts with 5 weeks to go I've done a write up on a number of the runners for the NH chase: http://onetojump.blogspot.com/2012/02/national-hunt-chase-early-look.html
Harry The Viking looks a deserved favourite. Surprised that Viking Blond hasn't got a mention on this thread yet. He looks to have a massive chance if running imo |
|
By:
My favorite race of the year...
well interesting the headmaster going for four commanders have to say I'm not sure he wants this trip or better ground...interesting runner but no more...lots of interesting types and usual brutal affair awaits...the one I like is fist of fury although only for small stakes as he ran so poorly at the track behind join together...strongs bow legend is also interesting me but prefer a hold up runner myself...lots of form to wade through... I have one other that I'm more keen on but need to see him confirmed a runner...will let you know... I'm always wary of anything willie mullins sends to the race as for some reason he has had lots of fancied runners and they don't appear to run to form...the same thing seems to apply to paul nicholls for some reason...can't put my finger on it but be wary... |