I didn't see The Argento but the result seemed illuminating with also rans in last years gold cup filling the first two places and a few live mid priced horses who haven't yet run in one left behind. Can anybody clarify if there were excuses for the others or was it as clear cut as it appeared? If the latter I think it further illustrates how hard it is for 160 horses to make that leap into high 170's or even early 180's territory.

Yes, Time for Rupert. Tidal Bay, Diamond Harry etc just weren't good enough on Saturday - jumped and run ragged in fact.

Thieves - isn't Long Run essentially rated through Denman rather than Kauto Star - presumably Denman's rating (from the Hennessey) is fairly solid.

Shock - tough question. I'm reluctant to rate anything using Tiday Bay! However, in the Gold Cup MC beat TB by 4 l off levels and here he beat him by 3 l giving 6 lbs. I think it's fair to conclude Diamond Harry is not as good as he was before his injury and ran nowhere near his mark. I also think TFR is somewhat overrated officially. I'd put Midnight Chase on a tentative 167. That would put Knockara Beau in the high 140s which I can believe around Cheltenham.

Well he ran on through beaten horses. He was on 149 just over a year ago, and has just come down to 140. He seems very consistent to me and I've seen him run a number of solid races at Cheltenham overboth hurdles and fences - he gets up the hill well. I expect you're right - up a few pounds, but we'll see tomorrow. Is he being aimed at teh Natiopnal then?

I don't think Denman was as good last year as previous years Stront.  He was beaten a long way in the Hennessey and RFR of 180 made Diamond Harry a 170!  All of DH's form besides that looks more like a 160 to me.  Only other time he has beaten 160 was behind KS and LR this season, form I think is also being overrated.   

If you downgrade the Hennessey 10lbs and reckon Denman was just a brave 170 horse last season (he was rising 11) the Long Run becomes a 176/177 horse in the Gold Cup, maybe just 174/175 over less testing 3m events.   

Don't get me wrong, I think what KS is achieving is amazing for a horse of his age but I cannot believe he is as good as he was 2 years ago.  My eyes and the clock also agree with that.

As do I thieves - I think Kauto's 2009 Gold Cup and King George were his peak.

It's just you said that KS is overrated and as a result so is Long Run. It's probably the other way round - KS's current rating must be beased on his two beatings of Long Run who is probably rated through Denman.

I agree with you there's plenty of room for doubt in the absolute numbers. Demnan running in Hennesseys and Gold Cups was a gift to the handicapper, but the ratings of all our 3 mile chasers are therefore based on him performing similarly in those two races year after year. He always tried and appeared to give his best, but it's a big stretch to say he was the same to the pound.

I agree with you that subsequent races suggest Diamond Harry was over-rated in the Hennessey, but maybe his injury did some permanent damage. We haven't seen Burton Port since so no help there. Maybe Carruthers gives the strongest indication of the form and would suggest Denman ran to high 170s/low 180s?

All that said, Timeform, RPR and BHA all agree more or less on rating Long Run and Kauto Star around 182 despite their different methods.

Not keen on using Carruthers, he was in shocking form last season and his runs either side of the Hennessey both got an RFR of 145, while they gave him 153 in the Hennessey.   If he ran to 145, like his other races last season then that would put Denman around 172 and the 1st and 2nd around 162.  The 4th and 5th horses also subsequently failed to reproduce the RPRs given to them that day.  Only Carruthers has since improved/returned to form and there seem to have been good reasons for that.

If we take the mid point between oficial ratings of 182 and the notion that Long Run is about a 175 horse and say in the gold cup you would rate him someowhere between 177-180 the question remains what out of the rest is going to run to that level? Midnight Chase was beaten off convincgly last season and yet he was clearly best in The Argento.

It leaves you with two conflicting views about Grand Crus. One is that there is little strength in depth in the field this year so why shouldn't he take his chance and possibly pick up some prize money?

The other is that being a French bred with some miles on the clock and a tendency to belt fences Long Run may not be as good by next year and all the other potential 180 horses will be long gone and that a stronger more experiences Grand Crus could be a real force and that going this year could potentially ruin a horse with no experience of big field open company over fences.

What people forget after this era of Kauto/Denman/Imperial Commander is that usually 180+ rated chasers are very few and far between and that 175 would win  most Gold Cups and anything over 170 would normally put you in with a great shout!   IF LR can reproduce 175 it will probably be enough.

I agree. Of course I should seeing as I made the same point earlier in the thread. Horses capable of running to that level are so rare which is why those horses have left very good chasers for dead over the last few seasons.

strontium, nice comment about the gold cup   rsa, i wasnt thinking str8 there, but you know what i mean i guess.

No problem. Watch one of the others scoot up now.