Cheltenham Festival
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Was there a thread ? Could have sworn I read one but cant see it ..
Hold On Julio is swiftly on an upward curve but got hit with another big rise last time out, 11lb, making it 27lb in total this season. He is lightly raced and trainer can do no wrong at the moment but he made several mistakes last time so in light of his new mark and price, top 5/1, is passed over.
Qianshan Leader - has won 4 handicap chases now from 11 starts, and is perhaps looking a little exposed. His last win was over course and distance but he was all out to win and is 8lb higher. Is receiving weight from most here but likely to be beat by something less exposed and more classy??
Shakalakaboomboom - has won 4 from 8 over fences, which is good strike rate, including his last two starts. Clearly improving and looks a live contender from top yard. Form of last win let down by Knockara Beau and beating Mon Parrain doesn't look that great either imo. Obvious chance 8/1.
1833 - 11th in the Hennessy, travelled well and jumped well enough, but flattered to deceive in the end. Has been dropped 2lb for that though and is lightly raced. Trainer good record in the race. Dangerous to dismiss, and did finish second to Somersby earlier this season, but needs to bounce back to form. 10/1.
Wayward Prince - ran worse than 1833 in the Henessy and was pulled-up. Trainer reported him to be sick though and he bounced backed to form in the Rowland Merrick with a 4th place finish, beaten 18 lengths, and dropped 4lb for it. Winner has gone on to win again, According To Pete, and the third is an 8/1 chance for the Argento Chase, Midnight Chase. Trainer in great form. 14/1.
Calgary Bay - up 6lb for winning last time, which seems fair. C&D winner at Donny and built to carry big weights. A chance but wont want the ground too soft.
Galaxy Rock - impressive winner at Cheltenham earlier season, where the form has worked out great beating Carruthers and Hey Big Spender. He was receiving loads of weight that day though and needs a career best. 12/1.
Cape Tribulation - a staying on 5th behind Calgary Bay last time over a trip probably too short. Has been dropped 1lb for that and should not have any worries if the ground gets soft. Only had 6 chase starts and has some good pieces of form in the book that will give him a chance. Trainer in good form, too, with According To Pete.
At the prices out of this lot I have backed Cape Tribulation eachway, 16/1.Denis O'regan has a good record on the horse but he may be at Cheltenham to ride Time For Rupert, who I have also backed
Wayward Prince and 1833 seem fair prices aswell but you cant back them all imo otherwise it becomes a facking lottery!.
Hold On Julio is swiftly on an upward curve but got hit with another big rise last time out, 11lb, making it 27lb in total this season. He is lightly raced and trainer can do no wrong at the moment but he made several mistakes last time so in light of his new mark and price, top 5/1, is passed over.
Qianshan Leader - has won 4 handicap chases now from 11 starts, and is perhaps looking a little exposed. His last win was over course and distance but he was all out to win and is 8lb higher. Is receiving weight from most here but likely to be beat by something less exposed and more classy??
Shakalakaboomboom - has won 4 from 8 over fences, which is good strike rate, including his last two starts. Clearly improving and looks a live contender from top yard. Form of last win let down by Knockara Beau and beating Mon Parrain doesn't look that great either imo. Obvious chance 8/1.
1833 - 11th in the Hennessy, travelled well and jumped well enough, but flattered to deceive in the end. Has been dropped 2lb for that though and is lightly raced. Trainer good record in the race. Dangerous to dismiss, and did finish second to Somersby earlier this season, but needs to bounce back to form. 10/1.
Wayward Prince - ran worse than 1833 in the Henessy and was pulled-up. Trainer reported him to be sick though and he bounced backed to form in the Rowland Merrick with a 4th place finish, beaten 18 lengths, and dropped 4lb for it. Winner has gone on to win again, According To Pete, and the third is an 8/1 chance for the Argento Chase, Midnight Chase. Trainer in great form. 14/1.
Calgary Bay - up 6lb for winning last time, which seems fair. C&D winner at Donny and built to carry big weights. A chance but wont want the ground too soft.
Galaxy Rock - impressive winner at Cheltenham earlier season, where the form has worked out great beating Carruthers and Hey Big Spender. He was receiving loads of weight that day though and needs a career best. 12/1.
Cape Tribulation - a staying on 5th behind Calgary Bay last time over a trip probably too short. Has been dropped 1lb for that and should not have any worries if the ground gets soft. Only had 6 chase starts and has some good pieces of form in the book that will give him a chance. Trainer in good form, too, with According To Pete.
At the prices out of this lot I have backed Cape Tribulation eachway, 16/1.Denis O'regan has a good record on the horse but he may be at Cheltenham to ride Time For Rupert, who I have also backed
Wayward Prince and 1833 seem fair prices aswell but you cant back them all imo otherwise it becomes a facking lottery!.
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