simonsig

the istabraq years     15 Feb 12 21:10 
No offence to anyone but clearly it doesnt matter that you think he should go for the supreme or the neptune which seems to have been the subject for the past 5 hours. NH will do what he thinks best and he has many balls to juggle. Frankly anyone backing his novices ante post must be crazy , his record for putting punters away is extensive and with so many decent novices around and bookmakers fighting for your business come march theres every chance it ll be bigger on the day anyway! ive no idea why you d want to play guessing games with your money...for what its worth im a massive fan of simonsig who has an engine to die for but his jumping is  not great and would get found out over 2 miles on todays display imo.BG prefers the neptune and id say he s also certain to go there having won over 3 miles as a point to pointer and watching him at kelso...this would also give his jumping more of a chance.Long term this animal has the makings of a top, top class chaser...an exciting horse for sure but no ante post guess.

He wont be 16-1 which I'm on at

Yeah, odds will obviously drop once decision is made, so you factor that in to calculations...i'd be surprised if there's many on here that still dont understand how ante-post works!

Simonsig slower than the 0-110 hcp yday, so clearly has bags of speed to not come off bridle in what developed into a sprint....i suppose it all depends on what reasons they have for believing they can reverse it with FB (i thought he was free stuck out wide at Sandown and would almost cert get more cover if they ran it again)...personally, if he got beat in a truly-run Supreme, i dont think it would be cos he wasnt quick enough....more likely cos he didnt hurdle fluently enough or simply ran into a tasty one

Billies are 11/2 for him to win any race for those not wanting to play the waiting game

Think di is on the right track here. Simonsig is not the quickest over a hurdle and I suspect BG thinks things might happen a bit quick for him in the Supreme, unless the ground turns up soft. If the Neptune wasn't such a tough race (on paper at least), I think the decision to go for it would already have been made.

Neptune more natural target for future chasers. Think he could get placed in Supreme, has a chance of winning Neptune. Something about that race against Fingal Bay doesn't feel right to me. Good ground might see the form being reversed.

With Steps to Freedom suddenly friedless on the machine i think his (possible) withdrawl would sway the verdict in favour of the supreme

funny how Simonsig's stablemate Darlan has taken a walk in market...you'd have thought he'd have contracted if anything given connections feel Simonsig poss to miss Supreme

I think you have a better chance in the supreme if you know your horse stays further than 2m.....Simonsig definately falls in that brackett.  He clearly has a high cruising speed so can maintain a position and even stretch them to a degree.  I can see the likes of Darlan, Vulcanite, Cinders and Ashes travelling with him and then Simonsig just getting them at it in the home straight......then my biggest concern...has he the ability to battle when they go eye to eye?....if he does then he will win by 2/3 lengths, if not Darlan will glide past him.

Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. You would honestly believe some people had got their life savings on him.

It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance.

As I said before there are a whole heap of entries who have achieved more than Simonsig and some of them have actually run and won at the trip. It really doesn't matter if the odd one falls by the wayside.

The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers.

Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme.

Supreme is easier to win, than Neptune at moment nap if Boston Bob goes Neptune as well as Fingal Bay.

Here's an anorak question for you. Has a horse ever won the Supreme that hasn't won over 2 miles?

River Ceiriog at a guess...because I dont think he'd won anything had he?

Not a first for the trainer either then Rod!

differentdrum
16 Feb 12 12:02
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Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking


Nah, your prob right there, i guess you have backed it for the neptune then

Or laid it for the Supreme

Why is "pocket talking" a problem anyway? If you backed the horse for the Supreme it's because you thought it would and should run in the Supreme. So you've backed up your opinion with your money. That could be a more valid opinion than a financially disintereted one.

"The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers."

What a moron FFS.

well put Workforce!

Differentdrum.

Did Geraghty "call it right" when he persuaded Henderson to run Finians Rainbow in the Neptune 2 years ago ?
Did he "call it right" last year when they ran the Tolworth winner Minella Class in the Neptune ?

Looks like he's going for a hat trick of blunders.

This would depend on how strongly Geraghty feels re Simonsig's best chance of winning, but do you feel there is anyway he may ride Tetlami in preference to Simonsig, should they go for the Supreme?

differentdrum     16 Feb 12 12:02 
Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. You would honestly believe some people had got their life savings on him.

It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance.

As I said before there are a whole heap of entries who have achieved more than Simonsig and some of them have actually run and won at the trip. It really doesn't matter if the odd one falls by the wayside.

The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers.

Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme.


Where he will take on a horse who has already slammed him, Boston Bob and Monksland and is still to prove whether he stays in a true run race

i have torn up my ante-post vouchers for Simonsig in the Supreme because DIFFERENT DRUM HAS SPOKEN

Differentdrum - quite a post that. Lovely stuff. Fishing I assume.

Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet.

I admitted to pocket talking in my post but tried to justify it by explaining my perception of the horse's form. Perhaps you can do the same?!

That minor point aside, what influence does this forum have on the decisions of connections? How do you suppose I think my views on here will somehow swing the decision? I am not trying to 'save' an AP bet and would have no idea how to do so. Should I fax Seven Barrows?! I am just having a debate with other enthusiasts. Seems reasonable to me. If anything, it sounds like you are trying to save an AP bet when you plead - 'Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme'  !!




It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance. - Form is one element, perception another. Not many horses in the Supreme have blue chip form at this stage so why suggest Simonsig's is substantially inferior? It may or may not be inferior, but few horses have made the same impression.

Simonsig's form behind Fingal Bay (in a race that included Barbatos among others), coupled with what we saw yesterday against established horses must be the most solid in the whole race surely, so how can it possible be hype?

My problem, like most people's, is knowing where he'll go at Cheltenham, but I think he looks a very good horse and that is based on form, not hype.

Simonsig isn't the quickest over the hurdles.

Let me clear from the outset that Simonsig is clearly a very good horse and will undoubtedly be competitive whichever race he goes for.

However what I cannot accept at this stage is that he has shown incredible speed. Both of his last two races have been run almost at a crawl for the first mile and yesterday he was on the bridle beating a 3 mile chaser over 6 furlongs shorter. The only time he has needed to come off the bridle he has fallen short.

I accept that the form of that Sandown race now looks outstanding and that, to my eye, now makes 5/1 about Fingal Bay look much better value.

As far as the Supreme is concerned, I think that represents a better opportunity simply because there is no horse or horses that have stood out to be be that much better than the rest at this stage.

It would be easy to assume that because he travels so well that the shorter distance will suit him best. But as I mentioned above the races he has run in have have not been anywhere near the pace that the Supreme will be run at so there is no guarantee he will travel as well.

Good luck to all those on at fancy prices but to me there is better value in both races

roobuck, to stay on the bridle thruout a slowly-run race that develops into a sprint, what do you need, speed or stamina?

Sure they werent the best bunch on Weds but KBeau had won a Grade 2 over C&D by 27 lengths as a novice hurdler, LHero was beaten only 10 lengths in Triumph Hurdle and Orsippus won Grade 1 over 2m at Aintree...they're not mugs and the result suggests they've run to somewhere approaching their current marks

Yes I agree that they're not mugs but you are looking at one piece of form for each and as an example Local Hero was then beaten 58l by Zarkandar at Aintree.

You use KB's form as a novice - how long ago is that? the reality is that he is now a 3 mile chaser who is readily outpaced at a crucial time and then stays on at the end - in fact much evidence would suggest he would benefit from a step up in distance. In truth I would have expected Simonsig to have been able to beat KB like that.

Naturally with unexposed horses the visual impression is naturally an important aspect in assessing it's capabilities - beauty is in the eye of the holder and you may very well be right. I guess in the first instance you want him to go for the Supreme and to that end I do agree bit without perhaps the same enthusiasm

From Graham Cunningham yesterday on sportinglife

Morning all. Sensible starting point given yesterday's events and the first point to make is that I just think Simonsig is a better horse than Galileo's Choice. The latter won with ease but beat a staying chaser with no real hurdles pedigree, whereas Simonsig pasted some very useful rivals and giving the strong impression again that he is right up there with the very best novices around this season. Like Bingster Im a but perplexed about the talk of going for the Neptune rather than the Supreme with Simonsig. The longer race would force him to lock horns with Fingal Bay again. Personally I'd give him a good chance of beating that rival this time around, but to my mind a strongly-run two miles at Cheltenham would be bang on for Simonsig and if Hendo didn't have Tetlami and Darlan as possible contenders for that race I really don't there would be too much debate on the topic. On the score of jumping its true that S was clumsy at a couple yesterday, but I certainly wouldn't agree with Ed's suggestion that he's "potentially the worst ante-post favourite in terms of value." In fact, if i could be confident that he would turn up on Tuesday rather than Wednesday I would say that he's potentially the best ante-post favourite in terms of value.

Roobuck, yes i did cherry pick just one piece of form for each but it was to illustrate that, on their day, they are capable at that sort of trip (i added that they'd run to around their current marks to clarify that i wasnt suggesting that they were in the same form as in the races stated)

Take your point re. Knockara Beau, though personally feel fences make him look slower than he is cos he's not really in love with that game and doesnt travel between his fences like he does over hurdles

Your last point sums things up well....it was my first point about being able to stay on the bridle in slowly-run races being about speed that i was chiefly posting for.

ps i think with 'hype' increasingly becoming a bogey word, there is almost a stigma around going with a visual impression over form these days, that it is a cardinal sin to fall for a visual impression that proves flattering...it will probably eventually mean that the value will lie with the hype/visual impression horses that everyone is trying to lay!

Darlan surely won't be going to the Supreme after todays horrible fall at Newbury so maybe that may influence their decision?

I disagree uncle.....the fall looked bad, and obviously not good...but the horse was straight back up and joined the race again which tells me it looked a lot worse than it probably was....but of course we have had no news yet on the horse.  Someone there said it walked back to its box ok and seemed fine.
If that is the case then I think the horse performed very well.  Even if he had finished placed you would be saying it was one of the best form lines going into the supreme.....he has to go there now.

As I mentioned on the Supreme thread I only saw it the once (live on CH4) and obviously it was one of those falls that looked worse than it was - I'm glad to say

However, I still don't fancy him at all for Cheltenham - Aintree is his course imo.

R Carver

Sorry, if it came across as pleading but I do believe Nicky has had had long enough to make a decision.

He can either go with a hunch and experiment in what should be the most competitive two mile novice of the season or go with the one piece of form which gives him any chance of success. The strength of the Neptune is being overplayed and it could easily come down to a rematch of Sandown. The season is geared around the Festival is it really the right place to be effectively guessing?   

Personally, I don't think he wins anything but at least he has a realistic form chance in the Neptune. I fear pulled up is the best he can hope for in the Supreme.

Fair enough DD, I respect that, thanks for the reply (and apologies if my reply came accross as prickly) placing them in the right race must be a nightmare and carries huge pressure. Quite a few people are posting that he maybe cannot win either race. I woudl love to see him in the Supreme, but I accept if BJG thinks the Neptune makes more sense, he does know more than me.

I suspect other factors will come in - if is to be bottomless on the Weds, they may swerve that race. If their other 2m hopes fall by the wayside, they may run on Tues. If their other 2m hopes do what they expect beforehand, they may lean to Weds. Time will tell. GL DD.

'pulled up is the best he can hope for in the Supreme'

Just wow.

I ignored that Barnesy!

Fair play R Carver for answering that post in a serious and civil way. You are a far more patient man than me

I've had a few good debates with DD and I do respect his view greatly (everyone's of course). The festival will be lots of fun, best to keep it that way on here too IMO!

Yes that took genuine humility! If Simonsig is pulled up in the Supreme I must be a way poorer judge of the game than I'd like to admit!

differentdrum




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Hard to imagine a thread that has been more led by pocket talking. Clutching at any straw to somehow save your ante-post bet. You would honestly believe some people had got their life savings on him.

It is amazing how so many people can just swallow hype. At the moment on what he has actually achieved he is the worst favourite at the meeting by a distance.

As I said before there are a whole heap of entries who have achieved more than Simonsig and some of them have actually run and won at the trip. It really doesn't matter if the odd one falls by the wayside.

The only consideration should be the Neptune or save him for Aintree. Despite comments to the contrary Gerraghty has called it right - surely he should know a little more than a bunch of pocket talkers.

Time to call it Nicky, a reasonable shout in the Neptune or potential embarassment in the Supreme.

COULDN'T AGREE MORE WELL SAID

If he goes for the Supreme he's my banker of the meeting.

If he goes for the Neptune I'll be looking to lay him for a place.

For me his "form" is as good as anything else but if you are looking to back novices on strict form lines then your chances of success are somewhat limited imo.


As for putting great store in the opinions of trainers and in particular jockeys.............

I would never be too confident about backing a horse in the Supreme that has not shown me he can find off the bridle.
Or indeed any race at Cheltenham.
I do think Simon should run in the Supreme,but i wont be backing him at the sort of price i suspect he will be.

In his three runs over hurdles,Simonsig has displayed an impressively high cruising speed.IMO the frenetic fast pace of a typical Supreme is tailor-made for him.I consider it far more likely he fails to stay if contesting the Neptune,rather than getting outpaced if opting for the Supreme.

Agree,Hemsby. The chances of him getting outpaced are somewhat less than nil.

Fair old drift for the Supreme today out to 14 back 20 lay !!!!!

Watched the race back again and while he has been good before I think the reason they are thinking Neptune is down to his jumping. Echoed on Geraghty's recent blog-
The reason I mentioned going over two five for the Neptune at Cheltenham is to give him a bit more time at his hurdles.
Straight after the race I thought (maybe through my pocket a bit) that the horse would jump better at a faster pace but he really did make some bad errors. They didn't make any difference to him at Kelso and he has a phenomenal cruising speed but if he makes a serious mistake or two in the Supreme he will get left behind.

If he makes a serious error or two in the Neptune he'll get left behind.
I can sort of see Geraghty's reasoning but this horse travels so well I'm sure the Supreme is the race for him.

Fair old drift for the Supreme today out to 14 back 20 lay !!!

That was my fiver at 20 and it's been matched. Maybe just specualation but it does look weak today.

I agree Flyingbolt. Errors may be more costly in the Supreme than the Neptune, but on the face of it, in terms of evidence determining his target, his defeat at behind a grinder would worry me (ahead of a tilt at the Neptune) more than his less than slick hurd;ing at speed (ahead of a tilt at teh Supreme).

Surely they won't make up their mind about which race until likely opponents and ground are known so I would not read any more into the markets than that Neptune is a little more likely at this stage.

I actually think Fingal Bay has more speed than we're giving him credit for. The early stages of the race at Sandown were run at a crawl, and Fingal simply showed the best turn of foot to win the race. He needed shoving along to do so, and that might be deceiving. Simonsig blew up as if he was in need of the race, maybe was just caught out by Fingal's change of speed. Either way, I can't have him as a non stayer whatsoever.

No financial involvement as of yet, but I think the Neptune is absolutely the right race.

Either way, I can't have him as a non stayer whatsoever.

why not, wicketd?

Watch the kelso race again in my eyes he was doin all his best work at the end of the race..on the bridle going away from some very useful horses. No doubt in my mind that he wont stay and also that he will reverse placings with fingal bay. Neptune please!!

I agree with Brian and believe the decision will be ground dependent. As the moment, it needs to piss down for the next 3 weeks for him to participate in the Supreme. It's dry as a bone here in Cheltenham and not a lot of rain forecast this week either.

It will be Good to Soft for Tuesday nap!

^Officially

It was officially good last year so I'd expect that to be the case again even if he does water - the long range weather forecast only shows small amounts of rain over the next 2 weeks so it wil all hinge on the 3-4 days before the meeting starts.

Uncle 7/2 with PP Good Ground!

Before last year I thought they would never call it 'good' again due to all the animal welfare stuff, but having set that precedent I'd have to say 7/2 is a bloody bet given the prevailing conditions and weather forecast.

Agree 7/2 appears big, unless monsoon week before can only be 2 going descriptions.

politics dictates that the going description be given at no faster than good to soft on the opening day and that is what it will be - they will pour millions of gallons on to ensure they get it

^ They called it officially good (good to soft in places) last year, sofor betting purposes 'good' was the winning description).

So given we have had the driest autumn/winter/spring on record the chances are even with plenty of watering it will be called good this year.

The weather forecast for the next 2-3 weeks is mainly dry and bright with just the odd bit of showery rain - obviously the long rnage wetaher forecast is not carved in stone and it only takes a hevay band of rain on the Monday evening/Tuesday morning to change it to good to soft or even soft.

7/2 definitely looks a bet to me.

Cheltenham's clerk of the course Simon Claisse will start watering the track as early as Wednesday as he begins to prepare for next month's Festival.

There are only three weeks until the key meeting of the National Hunt meeting and Prestbury Park is currently quicker underfoot than ideal.

"As expected, warmer weather is on the way and I think it will be 15 or 16C by the end of the week," Claisse said.

"We were pretty much frozen from Festival Trials Day up to last Tuesday and we will start watering the course from Wednesday, primarily to active the fertiliser we put on the ground.

"We are currently good, good to firm in places and without between six and seven millimetres of water, we would be good to firm by Monday.

"We have had a very dry February and we are trying to maintain the ground at good."


Still 7/2 with Paddy Power - I've just filled my boots

yes they are trying to maintain it as good now.... because if they get some rain it will go good to soft

if they put enough on to make it good to soft now and it rains then they will miss their target

Possibly had a breathing op since Sandown are the rumours going around hence why he stopped so quickly. Interesting if this turns out to be true and would give another reason to connections not being too concerned about taking on Fingal Bay.

i think this horse would win the supreme high cruising speed and stays, but fear he,s neptune bound...

It's been a very tough decision, but have just layed off my stake on him for both the Supreme and the Neptune

Betweeen the two races he was taking up over 10% of my total bets for the entire meeting, so I thought it would be best to get rid, start again, and I might back him again when his target is confirmed.  That also frees up some cash to get involved in the handicaps as well now.

Would win about £60 if he wins the Supreme and £120 in the Neptune, for a 0 stake in both.  Also got him in a couple of tasty multiples in the Supreme, so either way I hope he wins one of the races.

Good luck to those who have got a fair wedge on him in either race, but I can relax now and don't need to keep checking the markets every 5 mins to see if he's on the drift

I think that's a very smart decision to be honest.

Aside from the maths involved allowing you to now get stuck into betting/trading on some of the other races, if there is one thing I learned more than anything else over the past two Festivals it is that day of race markets often look very different.

Although unlikely, you might find yourself looking at him running in the Neptune on fastish ground against Fingal Bay and Boston Bob and not fancy him too much. Of course you might, but in this case, with targets still to be decided it can't be bad to lay off for a tidy enough amount and not have to worry about it anymore.

As you said, you can still back him again nearer the race if you fancy him then and he looks like value when a few other factors have been confirmed.

and you probably backed at a bigger price that you are now laying right? meaning you have some residual if he does run and win?

I laid my stake for the Supreme off at just under 9/1 about an hour before the Kelso run as I was concerned he might run poorly, if I'd waited I could have laid off at shorter odds straight after the race, but within an hour, after Gerraghty's remarks, his price was back in double figures, and glad I did becuase it looks pretty certain that he'll go for the Neptune now.

Hope it travels on the bridle and runs out of gas up the hill. He's going for the wrong target, everyone knows it, but he's probably only doing so because of the ante post bets he's struck, putting punters away for the umpteenth time. Hope he gets stuffed out of sight in the Neptune now. Great trainer, but a total @rsehole.

As for the comments about bridle horses in the Supreme, I seem to remember Go Native absolutely dotting up. Simonsig reminds me of him to a tee, lunatic pace set would tow him into the race perfectly.

He doesn't have the profile of a Supreme horse and really needs a fence. I honestly don't think he would get over the hurdles quickly/neatly enough to win the 2 mile race under normal conditions. If however, the ground turns up soft, don't be surprised to see him in it.

Neptune fav

Only 11/4 with Lads

neptune winner. its weird that i find myself against almost all of my mates on this one. would be off bridle early in supreme imo.

would be off bridle early in supreme imo

nice reply

Absolutely no chance he would be off the bridle in the Supreme, and anyway it's no bad thing to be off the bridle...see Al Ferof last season. Crying shame he will go for the Neptune though :(

Absolutely no chance he would be off the bridle in the Supreme, and anyway it's no bad thing to be off the bridle...see Al Ferof last season. Crying shame he will go for the Neptune though :(

all a matter of opinions, i just dont read the race at sandown the same way a lot of people seem too. i think the horse has less speed than people think.

I still don't know which race this one should be in

I may be wrong of course,but live by the sword etc........i think hes a bridle horse,and cant have him winning any race at Cheltenham.

Goes Neptune confirmed

Barry G rides Tetlami in the Supreme and AP on Darlan

Thanks Baz. Any idea where this news can be read? Some are still back this for the Supreme

Read it from 2 places this am - nothin confirmed officially anywhere yet that i can see tho

ok tar

Market suggests the twitterers could be right.

must be right now that Fingal Bay is out although it probably only makes the Neptune slightly less difficult to win because it is bound to be much tougher than we all think

whatever he does he will make a smashing chaser

Just confirmed he runs in the Neptune by Henderson.

Ridiculously stupid decision. Iook forward to it shaping like a blatant non sayer

Cant see him coming off the bridle till at least approaching the last. A weaker division and the ground maybe a bit quicker for this race than the supreme come race time. If Boston Bob doesnt run in Neptune it makes this race very winnable. Correct decision imo. Nicky and Barry obviously think he will stay well so thats good enough for me. Lump job.

He's a big chasing type who doesn't jump hurdles particularly quickly. Not a great trait in a 2 mile hurdler. I think he is in the right race. He stayed very well at Sandown if you take Fingal Bay out of the race.

Time to back him for the Supreme then.

Naughty!

He clearly (well at least to me anyways) appeared not to see out the distance at Sandown over a furlong shorter!

Supreme winners have stamina and speed to which Simonsig has both! How connections can think the Neptune is the race for him is beyond me! Utterly ridiculous, biblical place lay if the race he runs is the Neptune!

Queue abuse................

Nicky Henderson has opted to run his exciting novice Simonsig in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

Winner of two of his three starts for Henderson and second to Fingal Bay at Sandown, the six-year-old was last seen cruising to victory in the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso.

He holds an engagement in the two-mile William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle, but will instead tackle the two-mile-five-furlong contest on March 14.

Henderson said: "He's going to go two-five, Barry (Geraghty) schooled him the other day and he's still a bit of a baby, so it might suit him better."