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dibble27
19 Jan 12 21:43
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Date Joined: 14 May 08
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Hi guys, any idea on which race at the festival he will b targeted at ? Quite fancy him 4 the supreme this looks weaker than the Neptune on paper, but am sure I've read that Henderson preferred the Neptune. Just think the fast pace of the supreme an up hill finish over 2m will suit it better than a hard fought fight over 2m 5f of the Neptune.. thoughts please guys

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By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 19 Jan 12 22:09
I have heard (not through any greatly informed source mind you) that he will be stepping up to 3 miles for the Albert Bartlett.....sides steps Fingal Bay and believed a more test of stamina is better than a speed test for him.  Travelled well in his races over 2 1/2 miles.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 19 Jan 12 22:20
I don't see his profile as a Supreme horse and Hendo has loads of other options for that race. He says the Neptune but unless the ground rides on the quick side, I think they'll duck another fight with Fingal Bay. Entirely possible that Ronnie Bartlett will try and win his own race though the markets would lead you to believe otherwise at the moment.
By:
wellchief
When: 19 Jan 12 22:27
there's already a decent thread on this fella

http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/28268871/simonsig---supreme-novices

I've backed him in all three novice hurdles at big prices.  Can't see him being in the AB at all.  He has a lot of speed; I'd say 60% Supreme 40% Neptune.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 19 Jan 12 22:27
Henderson discounted the Albert Bartlett both before and after its last run, saying he saw it as more of a speed horse than that....Sandown run would seem to have confirmed that but you never know
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Jan 12 22:29
Yes its a really weird one for me, as the market strongly suggests the Supreme but I would have thought that was the least likely race of the 3. Has proven beyond doubt he gets 3m in PTP races, so surely winning your namesake race has to be an almost impossible chance to turn down?
By:
Masterminded
When: 19 Jan 12 22:35
Personally I can't see him going anywhere near the 3 miler & I doubt Nicky will be trying to duck horses at Cheltenham. Fingal Bay has been impressive & clearly has a very bright future but he doesn't look unbeatable. Plenty of horses have reversed the form & better ground in March may help him do that. Supreme or Neptune I think but I just get the feeling he has something else in mind for the Supreme.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Jan 12 22:36
I think the same as you MM. I just think the 3m race must be very tempting for the owners.
By:
wellchief
When: 19 Jan 12 22:44
I'd go Neptune.  I've said in the other thread that I'd strongly fancy him to reverse the form with Fingal.

It was only his second ever hurdle race against a dual Graded novice hurdler.  He cruised all over him until the final flight, and would have learnt a lot.  Theres also the Challow record against fingal
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 19 Jan 12 22:44
The market for the 3m event is really odd......10s with some, not quoted with others and 25s with at least 4 firms I have seen.....says to me they are too scared to discount his entry but like many on here, favour the Supreme.
By:
dibble27
When: 19 Jan 12 22:45
Thanks for the input chaps, just scratching me head on this horse at the min, he looked like he was caught a bit flat footed behind fingal bay last time out but he kpt on all the way 2 line, I just like the way he traveled during that race which would suggest 2 me he would relish the fast pace of the supreme an he could use his stamina up the hill, as we saw last year nicky isn't afraid 2 run 2 or 3 in the race
By:
Masterminded
When: 19 Jan 12 22:55
Couldn't put you off he must have a good chance wherever he goes he's a very high class animal. That's somewhat the problem though he could probably run in all 3 with a realistic chance.
By:
R Carver
When: 20 Jan 12 07:29
I think this horse would be a massive player on day 1, he is visually the best horse i have seen in the hurdles division this yr, astonighing speed, but I suspect the trainer is desperate to run him in the Neptune given how much ammunition he has for the supreme whilst the only thing putting him off is the likely presence of Fingal Bay. It was a great run against Fingal, and Fingal may not be unbeatable, but he possibly did get a little outstayed and if they ground is tacky again I think  Fingal may grind himm down again. I would say there is almost no chnace he will run in the Friday novice.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 20 Jan 12 14:11
Has proven beyond doubt he gets 3m in PTP races


CCM, there have been many horses down the years that have turned out 2m-2.5m chasers having won ptps earlier in career...usually they have won their ptps against vastly inferior opposition....i would never conclude a horse stays 3m 100% based solely on a ptp win
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Jan 12 14:37
Thats a good point Duncan... cant argue with that
By:
Martin pipe returns
When: 20 Jan 12 16:10
You can always take the 7-1 Billies price on it winning any race......
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 20 Jan 12 16:11
Dont see the point of that Martin... he'll be bigger than that in whatever race he is put in when its decided imo.
By:
flyingbolt
When: 20 Jan 12 16:38
The only race he'd have a chance of winning is the Supreme.

If he runs in the Neptune he'll finish about 5th like the last two non stayers Henderson has run in it.

If he runs in the Albert Bartlett he'll finish tailed off.
By:
wellchief
When: 20 Jan 12 16:52
For those who like Graham Cunningham, he said on his Sportinglife chat today

for those who like a bit of gossip rather than the form book, I am told that Henderson himself has a pretty strong feeling that Simonsig might well be the best from what is a very impressive bunch,

Can't wait to see this fella back out.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 24 Jan 12 21:06
Some interesting comments about this horse on the Fingal Bay thread.

He's still in all 3 novice hurdles. I don't see anything in his profile to indicate that he is a Supreme horse. 3 points over 3 miles, a very valuable bumper restricted to pointers (generally slow horses) over 2 and a quarter and 2 novice hurdles over 2 and a half. His last race against FB was his first proper test. Hendo says the Neptune, I still wouldn't rule out the Bartlett.
By:
horse9
When: 24 Jan 12 21:24
I heard (quite strong) he goes for the Neptune...
By:
tomdeane
When: 24 Jan 12 21:28
Everyone seems to have heard where he goes but the information is always different!

I would suspect that connections themselves don't quite know. If he was mine I would go all out for the Supreme - think he travels so well and that is always an asset in that race, as is the ability go get further. Looks a weak race, too, so that's the obvious route for me. I understand he has ptp form at three miles but I don't see him as a stayer on the evidence of his form under Rules.
By:
wellchief
When: 24 Jan 12 21:29
I've got 5er ew on supreme at 33
10er win the neptune at 25
10er win in the bartlett at 14

Hoping he goes for one fo the first two.  When NRNB comes in, I'll probably have £20 win in each race.

Probably peanuts for most people on here, but for me to have £30 on one horse at this stage is quite big for me
By:
Masterminded
When: 24 Jan 12 21:39
Neptune for me. Think the likely better ground in March will play to his strengths.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 24 Jan 12 21:41
Don't think him winning points has any relevance on him needing a trip

Many a 2miler have had success in points

I remember ASK TOM beating SUNY BAY in a point
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 24 Jan 12 22:13
No apparent speed in the pedigree. Sire was a good middle distance horse in France (best form on good ground). Dam was a decent hurdler and has produced a point winner.

Likely better ground at Cheltenham probably a plus for him.
By:
wellchief
When: 25 Jan 12 19:25
FINALLY A BRIEF UPDATE FROM NICKY HENDERSON ON RPTV, from his brief "Festival Update video"  (Same video as the one where he talks about Oscar Whisky Champion / World Hurdle dilemma

I've typed exactly what was said.

REPORTER : We saw Simonsig before looking fit and well.  Whats the news on him?

HENDERSON : Good.  Working away with him.  He'll have one more run before Cheltenham.  There'll just be a decision on which way he goes.  I mean its extraordinary how much pace he's got.  That day over 2 and a half at Sandown and joined Fingal Bay you'd say he was just in a different class to that horse.  For speed he's extraordinary, he has got a lot of natural speed and I wouldn't be frightened to come back to 2 with him.

Those were his exact words, and in the space of about 20 seconds he used the words pace and speed 3 times.

Reading that I'd say its all about the Supreme.  I saw on his trading history on here, there are two massive spikes for the Neptune not too long a go, whereas his price for the Supreme has remained rock solid.

Hope that helps Wink
By:
R Carver
When: 25 Jan 12 19:40
Very much, thanks WC.
By:
Martin pipe returns
When: 25 Jan 12 22:19
Whack him in the Supreme Nicky and leave the Neptune to Boston Bob. Cracking 194-1 double, on what is arguably a contingent event.
By:
zilzal1
When: 26 Jan 12 00:18
Mind you given that Bobsworth has been the only oss from that stable to win since Flown in the three races mentioned since 1992 followers of the stable runners in those events must be well skint...
By:
stevo1
When: 26 Jan 12 03:58
Got Broadbackbob for Neptune amongst few others as well.
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 26 Jan 12 15:49
I'll try and settle this regarding which race he goes for.......I know they all like to keep options open but there is usually a 'suggestion' from a trainer about which race to go for.  i.e. Fingal Bay, Hobbs has 'indicated strongly' it will be the Neptune.  Henderson knows he cannot beat this horse....both were fit when they ran against each other and both are entitled to improve.  He knows it.  the Sig is too good a horse to throw away a winning chance at Cheltenham....the owners sponser the Albert Bartlett, ideally Henderson does not want to go there but......he has a few good ones for the Supreme...imo Darlan (which the stable were quite open in saying was the best bumper horse last season).....Henderson knows this has the best chance of winning the Supreme and so does not want to steer the owners into that race knowing a probable place only and knowing owners sponser the 3m event but is trying to resist going there as he does not want to give the hoirse a gruelling 3m at this stage......but knows he could have a great chance of winning......result....keep quiet and see what happens near the festival.  We will not know about this one until the weekend before believe me, and although he will be classy over 2m I do have a feeling he will be forced to go to 3m. Just my mortal opinion. Everytime he is asked about this horse he squirms somewhat.
By:
Masterminded
When: 26 Jan 12 16:08
I really don't think Nicky will be too worried about Fingal Bay. Cheltenham is where stars are born not in some little early season novice hurdle at Sandown. I think he will go Supreme or Neptune depending on what he's got for the race.
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 26 Jan 12 16:32
Masterminded....those 'silly little races' are what brings them on to develop them....so what you are saying is that Simonsig couldn't even win a silly little race....how on earth is he to to do well at Chelts.  I am a big Sig fan, believe me, and i will back him in both races if I need to as he is double figure prices anyway.....but I tell you this now....he will NOT go to the Neptune.  Henderson is not one to duck other horse but with this one I think he knows too well that the Neptune is as good as gone really.
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 26 Jan 12 16:36
if Simonsig couldn't beat Fingal up the hill at Sandown I doubt he can reverse it going up a stiffer hill at Cheltenham. Fingal has already done it at Cheltenham so we KNOW he acts round there.  The supreme would be the one perhaps best for him but I fear he is in a right mess with knowing what to do with this one
By:
stevo1
When: 26 Jan 12 16:36
Also Henderson has apalling record in Neptune.
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 26 Jan 12 16:39
never even thought of that as an angle but you could be right.  I have my opinion master has his, we pays are money and takes our choice.....thats the beauty of this game....at lets be honest what does our opinion mean right now......absolutely jack!!!
By:
Masterminded
When: 26 Jan 12 17:13
Hendo takes novices along slowly. I doubt he is scared of Fingal Bay on better ground to be quite honest. If your going to duck horses you may as well not turn up to Cheltenham. We see plenty of these unbeatable novices overtaken in March every year. It's not going to stop now. As for a record in a certain race I can't see how that's an angle. They are hard races to win that doesn't mean Henderson can't train a horse to win over 2 and a half.
By:
wellchief
When: 26 Jan 12 17:17
You put a good argument forward SS, but I'd have to agree with Masterminded on this one.

1. Fingal had already won 2 Grade 2 races when they faced each other that day; Simonsig had only had one egg and spoon race at Ascot.  There is masses and masses of improvement left in Simonsig in my opinion, because he could still have been a bit green.

2. Fingal has since come and won the Challow, but not in an impressive manner at all imo and his least impressive hurdle run to date.  Ok, he idled in front but if he does that at the Festival he'll lose.  It could be argued that there is more improvement over hurdles for Simonsig than Fingal (Fingal will be a great chaser imo).

3. If you use the Henderson Neptune stat, you can also use the Challow Hurdle winner stat which is equally as bad.

4. Hendo actually said in his interview on RPTV, "That day over 2 and a half at Sandown and joined Fingal Bay you'd say he was just in a different class to that horse".  Doesn't sound like the words of someone who is particulalry scared of him.

Based on all that, its pretty clear I think.....he should also swerve the Neptune!!

Supreme for me now (although I've said on here several times I think he should go Neptune).  He stays 2 and a half, and he has got great tactical speed and pace - the perfect blend for a Supreme winner imo.

It might be right that Darlan was Hendo's best bumper horse last year, but this fella was in Ireland, so can't really compare their bumper form.  All I know is that Michael O'Leary (Giggi stud) offered 100k for him last year as a bumper horse, and he got laughed at.

As you said mate, it's a game of opinions.  If every race was cut and dry we'd have nothing to talk about between September and March WinkWink
By:
Shakepseare's Sheriff
When: 26 Jan 12 17:51
wellchief...can't disagree too much.....but.....using what you said you could say Fingal has done it at a higher level than the sig and maybe was feeling it in the Challow....stats are there to be broken, but I don't like that one. Running to front too soon and idling at Cheltenham is not so much a problem now they have the last fence neaer the finish, and now he has done it they know for next time and be midful of holding on to him.....would not have got away with it perhaps in the heat of chelts. there are two main facts here...Fingal has won at Cheltenham, and we know what a plus that can be, and two he has beaten Simonsig fair and sqaure.  Simon travelled well then could not match Fingal for stamina and the fight, that would worry me at cheltenham....the form is there to read.....Fingal over the Sig...the Sig for Supreme (possibly)
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