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Thanks Spirit, Lads are the shrewdest bookie and it is they who are unsurprisingly taking the lead in removing antepost value for punters. They are dangling carrots now to get the mugs in, look at Al Ferof still 7s they are desperate for the mugs to move over to NRNB so they can reduce antepost to just another day of race market. They may as well invent virtual antepost racing then as you will have as much chance of winning long term on that than NRNB antepost.
Spread the word and let people know what is really going on here before antepost is destroyed by them. |
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This is no different to a supermarket putting the odd loss leader item on their shelves to pull punters in. Only one or two need to win at a bigger price than normal antepost and all the mugs will be on here shouting their mouths off how great NRNB is which will pull even more mugs onto those markets, Lads marketing suits will be reading this total sh1t with glee as they kill antepost betting value dead in the water replaced by antepost NRNB day of race zero value markets.
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eric_morris
22 Jan 12 09:08 So you dont think the bookies are going to shorten these NRNB prices drastically over time once the mugs have taken the bait? It is about the future not the current bait. Things will not stay as they are once NRNB has taken a grip on antepost markets. It is all about tightening the punters margins to them, unfortunately they may succeed, lets come back in 4 or 5 years and see what's happened. Firstly I don't think the NRNB will ever become the norm on long range antepost races (flat classics, big handicaps etc) - Ladbrokes just offer it on the Cheltenham championship races. Secondly, if they do all start offering nrnb on all antepost bets (which they won't), then the competition between the bookies will ensure prices remain similar to what they are now. Whether that is actually value is up to you to decide. |
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Are prices competitive between bookies on day of race prices which is what NRNB will become?
What is your chance of backing a 33/1 winner in day of race markets compared to a normal antepost market? If you answer these two questions honestly then you will see the dangers of this. Answers are No by the way. |
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No and Very little chance.
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YOU ARE ONLY GETTING VALUE on normal antepost BECAUSE IT IS NOT NRNB.
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Eric I honestly think you're getting a little carried away here. Nobody wants to see the death of antepost betting and there really is no evidence that we're headed that way. Laddies have done their 4 championship races for the last couple of years and that's it. Why are you so sure that we are in danger of losing antepost betting?!
If your domesday scenario ever happened and all bookies went nrnb then instantly one or more of the firms would go back to antepost to offer an alternative to the others and try to capture some business. If you think about it for a minute, Laddies have simply done the reverse of this scenario and tried to accommodate those who want the nrnb reassurance. Are you aware of what percentage of the final book on a Cheltenham race relates to ante-post betting? I can tell you, it's about 5%. It's pretty trivial to them (although it's what keeps us all going through the winter). For the bookies, antepost betting acts as a marketing tool and to help shape the all important day of the race markets. I really don't see how it would help them to all be nrnb. They love the publicity they get by offering a big price on a horse that's just won a trial. If I thought antepost betting was headed for oblivion I would applaud your crusade but I honestly think you're fretting over nowt. |
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I have backed the following NRNB - Spirit Son Ew at 8/1 (phew), Fly at 2/1 (sleeping alot easier because NRNB) - I dont feel like a mug for doing this neither was ever likely to be a bigger price in any circumstances and there are some horses that are a bigger price to get to the races than others
Kauto Stone EW at 20, Sizing at 9/4 (happy what ever Nicholls decides to do with Kauto). I took a haircut on the price but I knew what I was getting into - no way would I have bet antepost on these markets at this stage as it is pointless so fair play to Lads and 365 for having some balls. All we need now are the novices and the handicaps NRNB and I dont have to worry about making bad last minute decisions or picking up wads of fake 20s. |
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I would point to the ladbrokes NRNB price on HF as great value. The main element of worry about the horse would be its fitness level. 2/1 was a very fair price considering all the worry is taken out. If the horse gets to the festival in one piece there isn't a hope it starts at 2/1 on the day. Also true of Sizing Europe when they had in at 5/2.
Definitely value in the market if you look hard enough, can't agree that the books would all look like that on the day. Maybe NRNB a week before isn't great value but that's completely different to three months beforehand. |
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First rule of Forum Club, dont waste time and energy debating with eric morris, as the guy is a nutter and never ever takes any opposing views on board. Cheers.
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I would normally agree with you, duncan.
On this particular issue though, he largely reflects my thoughts. There are one or two cases when NRNB can offer extremely good value. I've had two NRNBs this year - The Minack for the Gold Cup at 66/1 and Dare Me for the Champion at 50/1. With both horses, the reasoning is they will have to come through at least one, probably two, tough trials (and with The Minack he'd probably want some dig on Gold Cup day, too). Should they do so, you're looking at a price crash - but as neither of their trainers are known for chucking one in just for the fun of it, I would expect them not to run unless they've won or run very, very well in the build up. So the NRNB is very attractive for horses like that. However, these are very much isolated incidents and I would not wish NRNB to be expanded any more than it is already, for the reasons ybm highlights. |
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The problem you have with the general stance on this is that it wont work practically.
The vast majority of antepost punters, as can be seen on this and other threads on the NRNB subject, do not understand why it is very bad for them in the vast majority of cases. They are extremely likely to get into a habit of purely placing their antepost bets as NRNB if it 'pays off for them' now and then, when it is doing exactly the opposite and costing them bigtime long term as examples above show if you bet NRNB indiscriminately. If the majority get into this antepost NRNB habit then the demand for true antepost will die and the bookies will gladly take all the value from antepost markets by making them all NRNB. Punters dont know what is good for them generally and this could kill antepost. |
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I tend to agree. If there is a gradual move to NRNB by all the bookies then the vast majority of the time
you are going to be given some dreadful value prices . It's OK now where you still have a choice and can pick out the occasional horse where NRNB is value, but it doesn't get away from the fact that overall they offer poor value. I've looked at my Ante post bets and there is no way I would have backed them if I was forced to take a 20 % plus worse price NRNB. If the bookies accounts department works out that they make more money offering poorer prices NRNB then they may all move towards doing it. A punter loves the insurance of knowing if their horse doesn't line up they'll get their money back: but like most insurance policies they have to pay over the odds to get it. |
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The poster above asking for NRNB to be introduced early for the novice races also makes you realise how those who think they are having their cake and eating it, even though the bookies will be eating their value cake from under their noses if it spreads, are ignorant on this. If anyone wants to comment I would recommend you read the whole thread first to see all arguments.
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The value in Ante post betting has declined dramatically over the last 20 years against this though the
day of the race value has increased dramatically. 20 years ago the punter was faced with an early morning best prices which added up to around 115% plus had to pay 10% betting tax. A lot of early priced races now are priced close to 100%( best price) with no tax to pay. The problem now is that the prices quoted now are a lot more accurate , much of which is to do with Betfair giving them prices and them not having to make their own minds up. |
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Eric,
I asked you this question on another thread but don't think you replied. If nr/nb is so beneficial to books, why are they all so reluctant to move to it? |
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Nobody said this is well underway yet. Those who are good at antepost spot things early and get in quick before the rest. Hope this answers your question.
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I think the OP has a point, though the Cheltenham AP market has had to change in recent years becasue of the changes to the Festival.
Not that many years ago there were 18 races, very few horses had multiple entries, these days many will have 4 or 5 entries which makes AP betting riddled with danger unless of course you have solid knowledge of plans. Only last year I backed Captain Chris to win the Arkle a week before the festival - I have no idea what price he was on Betfair to win the Jewson but he seemed a certainty to go for the Arkle at the time, I was lucky I got my money back and backed him in Jewson but there would have been people who backed him without the NRNB concession and did their money. AP betting for Cheltenham has changed with so many new races, bookies have to offer incentives to attract business... |
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Good point by horse9, even if he has got his races mixed up (Captain Chris won the ARKLE). Horses with multiple engagements are , sometimes, better value NRNB. Many of them get backed in further once their target becomes clear. Seem to recall Paul Jones agreeing with that, some of his current subscribers might be able to confirm?
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My post 3rd Feb 10.13 really covers why this can lead to people betting antepost NRNB indiscriminately and in turn bringing about the death knell of true antepost markets and value closer. At the end of the day these NRNB markets contain loss leaders which will disappear from NRNB if the markets become popular. The bookies will burn off NRNB Arbers immediately.
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So to summarise your points eric, NRNB contain loss leaders which are advantageous to punters but we shouldn't take them because we don't know what's good for us. Thanks for the input and good luck with your crusade
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Well Eric has certainly rammed it down everyone's throat as is his want...
But don't think anti post will ever become nrnb across the board and if (no chance) it did punters would soon change it back... I noticed this year - Bet 365 who did nrnb last year months before the meeting, are not this year, because they have obviously not making the returns they hoped for...or not competitive enough... Because the best horses seem to be in the top yards and the trainers do not help at all - horses like Boston Bob, Simonsig, fingal Bay,make your mark,sous le cieux, grands cru,sir des champs, al ferof...have multiple entries...the list goes on and on.... These horses - are just a few that pose punters a huge conundrum when trying to pick and make a book on markets...more so than ever, yes they may think they are getting the edge, but trainers do not help and thus cause punters who are not betting nrnb a huge problem... From a personal point of view I have stopped with horses who could potentially run in 2 races as have had my fingers burnt to many times... for me NRNB works to a degree but will never be everyone's cup of tea...but as an example I would love to be on Boston Bob NRNB especially with sous le ciuex in the neptune and is due to run in the deloitte as I think if he hoses up it could cause mullins a massive dilemma...the albert bartlett addition to the program has caused a huge amount of pain to punters trying to find the edge in the staying novice races as has the jewson in the chasing division... personally if they were nrnb all season shrewd punters will eek out the value in the races.... it would help me as I think Boston Bob would of been at least 8/10-1 in the neptune and 7/8-1 for the albert bartlett before his last run and I myself would of been happy to play but cannot as trainer is not really giving anything away and has other entries as well.... another good example of this is hurricane fly who has been 2-1...if you like him you now have a free lay off at evens if you wish...he was only 2's because punters were unsure on his well being and wouldn't of lined up if all wasn't well with the horse so was a good play NRNB Eric your comments are all based purely around yourself and what suits you...from a personal point of view I wish the bookies offered both options, thus giving the punter who wants reassurance what he wants, and the punter who wishes to risk for the better price the other option... everybody would be happy then and would certainly suit myself as am sick of the constant merry go round... You have made your point eric but both others have put up good argument for what suits them... |
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thieves - yes, my apologies, got the races arse about face !
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Think choice is good in life generally but you will only get it in future antepost if those value margins are going to be removed with it.
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Well those who took the earlier 6/4 NRNB with Lads for Grands Crus for the RSA must be feeling a bit sick now that a strong indication has been given from connections that he will go RSA rather than Gold Cup. The 11/4 available now looks way better than Lads pitiful 6/4 NRNB (even they realised they let the cat out of the bag what poor value is to come in future years NRNB from them if it catches on and have pushed him out to 2/1 now). Get the sheep in and then scythe down these NRNB prices once/if they become popular.
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What about me I have had 8 monkeys nrnb Grand Crus and laid 9.4 on here for 400 if thats a bad bet u can boot me
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eric
Ladcrooks have never been NRNB on the RSA. |
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My mistake, 6/4 was horrific price if it wasnt.
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Those that backed GC for the Gold Cup with the NRNB firms will be mighty relieved. Like Shiner I did the same trick and it's paid off very nicely. It's truly a golden age for us punters.
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