Cheltenham Festival
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(Posted on the Antepost Forum also)
There is no value built into the price when backing a horse on the day of a race as there is no challenge in getting there on the day and also winning, you know like the current lower value in NRNB Antepost books.
These NRNB markets have DAY OF RACE PRICES except you dont know how well your horse will be on the day or it's trials form when you take the DAY OF RACE PRICE so far in advance of the race as it wont be reported accurately or at all by connections until very near to the race which in turn might influence you to not back it. It is therefore a massive disadvantage taking NRNB antepost compared to taking your DAY OF RACE PRICE on the day when much more trials form/well-being information will be available to you. Your horse may get beat twice in the run up and drift then you will be left with a dire DAY OF RACE PRICE for it when if you had instead waited to back it on the day at the same DAY OF RACE PRICES and seen it lose a trial you may have not backed it at all or backed it at a much bigger price. If your horse runs between now and the race you are effectively taking a DAY OF RACE PRICE for what is actually a multiple bet as the trial could cause the price to drift dramatically or shorten if it wins. Your DAY OF RACE NRNB bet does not build in this risk, how do you feel about that bet now?
The bookies are hoping punters will take to these tightening of antepost margins, shooting themselves in the foot as the bookies will then have you by the short and curlies and will rip every shred of value from antepost with NRNB markets(er I mean DAY OF RACE PRICES markets).
Hoping some of the antepost NRNB fans starting threads which highlight their utter stupidity on here will get a taste of their day of race value before long with a failed trial or two on the way to the Festival or an indication from connections near the race day that their horse isnt firing in their last gallop leaving them with a c rud DAY OF RACE PRICE which was placed WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE RACE and so requiring real antepost prices with value built in to account for these extra risks.... cant wait for them to start their whinging threads about how wrong they were about antepost NRNB bets.
There is no value built into the price when backing a horse on the day of a race as there is no challenge in getting there on the day and also winning, you know like the current lower value in NRNB Antepost books.
These NRNB markets have DAY OF RACE PRICES except you dont know how well your horse will be on the day or it's trials form when you take the DAY OF RACE PRICE so far in advance of the race as it wont be reported accurately or at all by connections until very near to the race which in turn might influence you to not back it. It is therefore a massive disadvantage taking NRNB antepost compared to taking your DAY OF RACE PRICE on the day when much more trials form/well-being information will be available to you. Your horse may get beat twice in the run up and drift then you will be left with a dire DAY OF RACE PRICE for it when if you had instead waited to back it on the day at the same DAY OF RACE PRICES and seen it lose a trial you may have not backed it at all or backed it at a much bigger price. If your horse runs between now and the race you are effectively taking a DAY OF RACE PRICE for what is actually a multiple bet as the trial could cause the price to drift dramatically or shorten if it wins. Your DAY OF RACE NRNB bet does not build in this risk, how do you feel about that bet now?
The bookies are hoping punters will take to these tightening of antepost margins, shooting themselves in the foot as the bookies will then have you by the short and curlies and will rip every shred of value from antepost with NRNB markets(er I mean DAY OF RACE PRICES markets).
Hoping some of the antepost NRNB fans starting threads which highlight their utter stupidity on here will get a taste of their day of race value before long with a failed trial or two on the way to the Festival or an indication from connections near the race day that their horse isnt firing in their last gallop leaving them with a c rud DAY OF RACE PRICE which was placed WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE RACE and so requiring real antepost prices with value built in to account for these extra risks.... cant wait for them to start their whinging threads about how wrong they were about antepost NRNB bets.
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All below were my losing NRNB from last years festival
Maljimar - Cross Country - 14/1 NRNB vs 9/2 SP Gagewell Flyer - Albert Bartlett - 25/1 NRNB vs 15/2 SP Knight Pass - Bumper - 10/1 NRNB vs 7/1 SP Rubi Light - Ryanair - 33/1 NRNB vs 16/1 SP Ballyhaunis - Coral Cup - 25/1 NRNB vs 10/1 SP Alaivan - Coral Cup - 16/1 NRNB vs 10/1 SP Yeah, all lost but they were my fancies and would have backed them on the day anyway. NRNB is one of the best concessions the bookies do, and as long as they keep doing it I'll be taking advantage. Yeah, there are some NRNB prices now that are far too short, but if you've got a bit of savvy, you'll know which ones to avoid and which ones to go for. |
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The bookies are the only ones with savvy on these markets, it wont be long before arbers will be burnt off by them on these NRNB markets and everyone gets worse value if they become popular. They are dangling carrots for their future mugs.
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eric i have backed a horse at 25s nrnb he was 20s with hills and most other firms and 27 on here at the time he is now down to 16s ,is that a bad value bet ?
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When they all go NRNB there will be more competion for business, so the price cuts won't be as dramatic.
Prices like Captain Chris 33/1 NRNB, Spirit Son 8/1 NRNB, Hurricance Fly 2/1 NRNB are not bad value bets at all. If all go for their intended races, all will be shorter on the day, and if they don't go you get your money back. If you fancy them, and plan to back them on the day, its little risk for potentially big rewards with NRNB imo. |
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Personally this is the best concession punters will ever get...
You don't have to bet, like well chief proves all his fancies may have lost but he certainly got the edge which is what NRNB is all about and piece of mind that you haven't done your money... I don't really understand Eric Morris's stance here because he certainly hasn't done his homework...The proof is in Well Chief's first post... I certainly love it and as much as I don't do it at the moment...I will be before the meeting when all the books put it up... Great value to be had  |
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its all about opinions really but personaly i am all for it ,no more heart in mouth every time you open the paper and the horse you have backed is pictured or headlined .
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surely hurricane fly at 7/4 if you fancy it is a bet.if it isnt right it wont run.(money back)if it runs and its right it wins.and it will be surely close to odds on by race time?..i cant see anything to beat it.its closest challengers are all doubtful in one way or another or not good enough in any case?
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Sorry folks you are not seeing the future which is ironically what antepost is about so no surprises you are hoping the bookies will help you out with your lack of ability in it. They are currently a wolf in sheeps clothing and you lot will get eaten up taking the true antepost punters down with you.
Cheltenham's popularity will wane if antepost value dies. |
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The previous post says it all really, you are willing to give the bookies nearly a quarter of your profit on Hurricane Fly by taking a shorter price because you dont have the bottle to wait 7 weeks for a race he is definitely being aimed at. Jeez get back to the horse racing forum with all the other mugs and leave the risk takers to it on here.
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You ignored the main points made, how will your short no value day of race price look when it loses a trial or is announced to not have galloped well in the week before the race? Your price will be even more rubbish than it already was and longer on the day when you might have decided to back something else instead.
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I really don't get your point.
They only go NrNB on all races about a month before the festival. For the other forty eight weeks of the year its normal antepost rules. Ok laddies do it early, but theres about another ten to choose from. Also, antepost prices are only a fraction of the overall popularity of the festival. If hurricane fly was odds on antepost i wouldn't back him; would that reduce my festival enjoyment? Not at all |
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You are again ignoring my points by not addressing them directly. Also the NRNB value killer is creeping in earlier and earlier on the Festival each year and the prices are getting shaved more each time. The bookies want you to take day of race prices where only insiders make money, they are going the right way about it obviously as you mugs seem to believe they are doing it out of the kindness of their own hearts.
You are going to bring true antepost punters down with you. |
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Eric if you are on about the current NRNB races that ladbrokes are pricing up then fair enough...but if you are on about the 2 weeks before the meet then you are seriously talking out of your rear...The angle you get out of NRNB if you know what you are doing can pay handsome rewards with horses that have multiple entries and it is up to the punter what he perceives as value and whether he thinks it is a good bet...if you bet a horse you need to be sure it is the right decision for you in what you regard or perceive to be value...
Cannot not understand what you are on about... I'll give you one example this year Oscar Whiskey has been 6-1 NRNB and is now trading at 9-2...if that punter fancied that horse and was willing to chance it without seeing his prep run he is not a mug he is just backing what he perceives value... Anyway never understood you and don't know why I have just wasted 10 mins of my day. |
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I just said NRNB is creeping earlier each year, we are 7 weeks before the Festival and a lot of bookies are following Lads lead in screwing you all as this continues year on year and the value is gradually removed with the promise to the mugs who are useless at antepost of a run or your money back regardless of whether your NRNB price taken months before is better or worse than on the day after numerous trials. This is ending up as a day of race price market worse than backing your horse on the day because at least betting on the day for your equally sh1t price you at least know your horse is well, the exact opposition and the trial results. The bookies want short sighted punters to think they are Father Christmas when in fact they are eroding antepost value by holding your hand initially then leading you to the antepost value slaughterhouse.
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As per wellchief, I really don't get your point either. And if your experience is that only insiders make money backing at race day prices, then perhaps you should ask yourself who the 'mug' is (your tedious term, not mine).
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Which point I have made dont you get. Be specific.
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Laddies have gone early, there's some rubbish value. But the whole of the rest of the ante-post market is out there for punters to take or keep their powder dry. Your starting point seems to be to assume that every punter is far less astute than you and we'll all be led to slaughter. If other firms follow Laddies example and all the value goes too early then punters will reject it and firms will rethink.
Specific enough for you? |
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Yes thanks for being specific though you could have been straight away instead of trying to take the opportunity to say how great you are instead. The message punters are giving above does not signal rejection and it takes a leap of faith to think this trend will be reversed rather than spread to other bookmakers introuding NRNB ever earlier with ever decreasing prices.
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are the prices really slashed as drastic as that under the NRNB banner...i don't know if seeing it as a con rather than a concession is right tbh...also what are the figures that the bookies take in the 7 weeks or so leading up to the festival compared to day of race? and how much of the antepost bets are fanciful multiples that the bookies couldn't care less about.hurricane fly is the perfect example of it being anything but a con...what is he now 7/4 / 2/1....with NRNB they should be going 4/6.
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Eric, I don't intend to get into an argument with you but nor do I understand why you feel the need to be so obnoxious. I'm not the one a) intimating that everybody else is a 'mug' or b) putting myself on a pedestal as a 'true antepost punter'.
I'm not sure how you have construed from my two responses that I was taking the opportunity to say how great I am (which, incidentally, I'm not) and your barb smacks of desperation. You're entitled to your views but so are the rest of us. Live with it. |
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i have done an ew double fly and al ferov at 2s and 7s.nrnb.i cant see any down side(except of course they not winning!).if they both win(or in al ferovs case run well) their fortcoming races they will be much shorter for their chel races.so why am i a mug?.i cant see your point to be honest eric.
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2 words ...........spirit son.
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Enough said Foyles, Eric is our leader though.
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You have to worry for the future of antepost value with posts like that. Spirit Son is one staking point lost, there have hardly been any single staking points (NR's) lost so far in the Festival run up.
When the NRNB bookies shave 4 points off say a 16/1 antepost shot making it 12/1 NRNB, LOSING YOU 4 STAKING POINTS if it wins you are all wetting yourselves at having a safety net in return for them STEALING 4 POINTS FROM YOU. THIS HACKING OF VALUE OFF EACH HORSE IN A NRNB MARKET WILL GUARANTEE THERE IS NO VALUE LEFT, EVERYONE WILL LOSE LONG TERM AND THE LIGHTS WILL BE TURNED OFF ON THIS FORUM IF IT SPREADS. There are some th1ck people on here buying their own antepost death with ridiculously stupid bets eating their antepost value it is about time other more experienced antepost punters on here who understand the value it brings and the kiss of death NRNB brings spoke out if they want to help others understand how important this issue is to the survival of antepost value. I aint doing it on my own. |
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If you backed the 16/1 shot antepost and it won, it would give you a breathing space of 4 of your future bets not making the race and losing your stake, compared to taking 12/1 NRNB. Add all these differences in prices between normal antepost and NRNB price for every winner you have together and it will give you a massive breathing space altogether. Any none runners that happen on your normal antepost winners (not NRNB as the bookies have f ooked off with your value every time you back a horse shorter than normal antepost) can be taken away from this difference leaving the rest as profit for you instead of giving it to the bookies.
16/1 normal antepost 12/1 NRNB win covers 4 future antepost non runners 6/1 normal antepost 4/1 NRNB win covers 2 future antepost non runners 9/4 normal antepost (Hurricane Fly) 7/4 NRNB win covers 0.5 future antepost non runners 4/1 normal antepost (Kauto Star) 7/2 NRNB win covers 0.5 future antepost non runners If the above all went on to win you have gained 7 staking points in your winnings compared to the mug taking shorter NRNB prices. You would have to have 7 antepost non runners to be worse off than the mug backing the NRNB prices. This value in time will be hacked off EVERY RUNNER, Lads NRNB markets are nearly achieving that already. I want to keep that value even if you dont as it allows me to make a decent profit if I get it right. Wisen up or back to the horse racing forum lads, no one will be interested on here and the forum will close if the bookies are given the antepost value back by mugs chickening out and running to the NRNB markets and certain losses long term in due course. |
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I have never had more than 3 antepost none runners per Festival when having just one bet in the race in the years I have been doing it. (if you have a Non runner in races you have backed others in your others will generally shorten, maintaining your book value) There is little doubt to me that no total profit would have been made by me on these races if NRNB had been active throughout those years. Wisen up people.
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The NRNB is a marvellous concession. It's there as an option, sometimes you should take the higher price with the true ante-post rules and sometimes you should dip into the concession. It's very blinkered to just use one or the other. Here's three occasions where you should use NRNB:
1. Horses about to run in a "trial" that will help determine their Cheltenham objective. If it runs well its odds will fall. If it runs badly, it will probably miss that Chelteneham race and you will get your dosh back. Yesterday I backed Somersby at 20-1 NRNB for the QMCC, this was far more sensible than taking the 25-1 elsewhere. 2. As a tool to take a price on whether a horse actually runs in a certain race. I've backed Grands Crus at 7-1 NRNB for the Gold Cup and laid it back on here at 9.4. That's because I am more than happy to lose 1.4 points if it wins the Gold Cup v a profit of 1 point if it doesn't run and a break even if it runs but doesn't win. Anyone who can't see that that's a value trade is barmy. 3. When the NRNB is close enough to the true ante-post price to justify the security of a refund if your selection doesn't make it. You can (just) get 8/13 on Big Bucks in the World Hurdle, but I would take the 4/7 NRNB every time, as you'd have to be 97.3% sure that the horse will make the gig to justify taking the longer price and from past experience, we are likely to lose over 5% of what you would have considered "certain" runners between now and then. |
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So you dont think the bookies are going to shorten these NRNB prices drastically over time once the mugs have taken the bait? It is about the future not the current bait.
Things will not stay as they are once NRNB has taken a grip on antepost markets. It is all about tightening the punters margins to them, unfortunately they may succeed, lets come back in 4 or 5 years and see what's happened. |
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I don't think NRNB will ever take a grip of ante-post markets. The only time you ever see it is at Cheltenham. One or two firms may offer the concession on the championship races only. Other firms then offer the concession on all races perhaps 10 days before the festival starts. You have ample time to bet at the bigger prices with ante-post firms before then. It's a punter's paradise as far as I'm concerned.
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1. if it runs ok but not well in its trial it still runs at Chelts but at a worse price than your NRNB price. A normal bigger antepost price will be closer to its SP. The risk of poor trials runs is NOT BUILT IN TO THE NRNB price as it is built in to a normal antepost price.
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2. I already posted earlier that, as with day of race markets, arbers will be burnt off by the bookies. It isnt smart and it wont be profitable as they will just shorten the NRNB prices to compensate for NRNB arbing parasites like you.
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"NRNB arbing parasites like you" ?!
Eric, take a nifty out of your wallet and treat yourself to a ****. It might put a smile back on your face :) |
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3. read the title of the thread please. The thread covers where the NrNB price is lower than normal antepost prices. There is no way on this planet that bookies will maintain this once you mugs are willing to take any NRNB price in case it doesnt make the race(give me strength the trainers move heaven and earth to get their horses there and these mugs want to give the bookies that value, see maths above, because they are 'scared' of this small risk of antepost)
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You are a hypocrite, you said NRNB markets wont catch on after admitting you are arbing on them already, clown.
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It will be primarily the arbers closely followed by the 'i am scared i will have a non runner so will take NRNB which gives my value away on all NRNB bets in case I have 7 non runners in all to break even on taking NRNB this Festival(see maths above) that f eck this for the rest of us antepost punters.
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Intresting reading this thread.
I can see where Erics coming from and largely i think he has a point.personally i hardly ever take NRNB,i much prefer getting in early and taking big prices on my judgement.When it works it dont half put me in a good position come March and if a horse gets injured i take it on the chin,but the amount of non runners i have compared to big prices i have is far less.Of course a horse can run in a different race but that is normally covered anyway,thats the thing about getting in early. If NRNB monopolised the antepost market,it would not be good for me,not at all. Antepost for me is all about beating the bookie,sometimes thrashing him,and not about assurance.And certainly not about taking shorter prices. Each to their own though,just giving my view. |
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If NRNB took over all ante-post markets then that would be a problem. However, it's not likely to happen so the choice it offers comes as a welcome addition in the circumstances I've outlined earlier. In the last few years there has just been one single company offering the concession on the Championship races only. By the time all firms start going NRNB on all races your ante-post portfolio should already be completed. As I said, it's a perfect storm for us punters.
What gives you the idea that all of a sudden the traditional ante-post markets are doomed? Can't see it at all myself. There will always be antepost prices on big races. As an aside Eric you may want to gen up on arbitrage as you seem to be twisting your plums about it. An arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state (thanks wiki). My TRADE on Grands Crus does involve the probability of a negative cash flow and so is not arbing. A clown is colloquially used to describe someone who doesn't understand things very well. I can agree on that one :) |
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I can see it coming mate, i have been good at antepost in the past because I have seen the future better than others playing the markets and this one is obvious to me. It isnt about this year it is about NRNB creeping in earlier and with more bookies. The arbers will be like flies around sh1t on them meaning NRNB markets are doomed to v short prices without doubt, you confirmed you are at it already on them as will many others. Once the bookies shorten the NRNB markets once popular they will do a supermarket style pricing job on true antepost markets by also shortening them right up close to the NRNB market prices to the degree punters will think 'I might as well take NRNB as the prices are virtually the same' and there ends true antepost value betting. Enjoy.
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I think your right Eric,the bookmakers are thinking about the long term game and that is to reduce the value in the market. And yes I did back spirit son antepost.I make most of my money on antepost markets not day of the race prices.I can see there is a little value on the nrnb markets if your very selective or arbing but that will be removed from the market when you have all joined the party.
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