The Triumph Hurdle

agree about Urbain de sivola, he has been my only bet so far in the triumph

Solving,im not sure about that,pearl swan beat ifyouletmefinish on his debut,which was quite a decent performance when you look back at it because urbain de sivola only dead heated with ifyouletmefinish since and both have had lots of experience over hurdles,pearl swan didnt when he beat iylmf on debut.

That's a very valid point OTS. But you could counter that with the fact it was IYLMF's first run also. Whereas when UDS & IYLMF met it was UDS's fourth run & IYLMF's third run. Add to that when PS & G met (dead heat in all but name?) it was PS's second run & G's third. Truth is for me it's very hard to separate these three & I have a horrible feeling it may come down to course experience which of course puts Grumeti as favourite which is exactly what he is. I hope you don't think I'm trying to be smart cos I know both yourself & Sint have forgotten more than I'll ever know & that's why I'm on here as both your inputs are an edge for me.

You've gone in again sint?

I saw today that someone reported that at the Exeter preview night that UDS would go to the Triumph if there was 'soft' in the going. I really hope that if the going is good he still pitches up because post race he said definitely goes and they know what the going is likely to be. You understand that a horse has a better chance on certain going but take that into consideration with the price and likely hood of running.

Been at work so not been able to post the above sooner

Can I add when PS beat IYLMF he won by 4L and was getting 11lb whereas when UDS deadheated with IYLMF he was only recieving 2lb not to sure what can be read into that but all the facts have to be on the table. shall defo need a wine or three to absorb all this.

I was not aware of that Roobuck. Yes I had another bet but only half a point. Trainer did say after his last run the ground was plenty quick enough for him and it was officially GS that day!

I backed Gullinbursti for the Albert Bartlett but now trainer has done a completley u-turn and said he will only run if it was Soft. Really phucks me off when they say a horse is ''certain'' to run then a few weeks later add the caveat .. only if the ground is suitable. FFS.

Couldn't agree more sint but I guess it always happens.

So if starts raining on Wednesday night ( all my fancies on first two days want goodish ground ) are we charging then on those two? Lets think positive

If the Going is officially Soft then i'd certainly back UDS again. Grumeti will handle Soft aswell and probably the Irish contingent!

Has Hollow Tree been completely forgotton? If Maguire hadn't dropped his whip it would have been a three way finish at Cheltenham...

Am chipping away at UDS Sint @ 25's it's worth the risk I think.

Red alert Dodging Bullets' price dropping like a stone Sint are they gonna run him? great news for me just wish I'd spotted it earlier!

lol solving i wouldnt say that,i'd imagine the majority of people on this thread know a hell of a lot more than i do,
But that doesnt mean anyone's opinion is better than anothers.anyway you say it was iylmf's first run too when pearl swan beat him at Taunton,it was actually his Second run over Hurdles,and had run in two bumpers previously too,
Thats why i believe pearl swan's victory over iylmf was even more impressive,
ps i really hope they run dodging bullets,was very impressed with his debut

Well that was what gave me great hope you liked the way he shaped whereas others said he'd never reverse the form even if he improved. He was well ahead of some of these on the flat so if he was to get his 'jumping act' together (just straight would be good) he might have a major chance.  GL  P.S. the price sez pearl swan has a much better chance than urbain de sivola but i'm forever looking for 'value' which is probs why all the bookies are still holidaying where I can't afford to!

Re Grumeti and Balder succes King said on Monday: "We don't have to rush into it. I think a lot will depend on ground. I think soft ground will certainly suit Balder Succes. I'm not saying he won't go on good but I think he is very effective on the soft, whereas I think better ground suits Grumeti"
"They are both lovely horses and we are lucky to have the two to go in it. Wayne's ridden both of them so it's not a major issue."Having missed a key part of the season through injury, Thornton had not ridden Grumeti on the racecourse until Saturday, but was taken by his performance.

"He has everything you look for in a Triumph horse, and I would not think that there is a tougher four-year-old physically anywhere in the country," he said on King's website.

"He is so strong for one so young and reminds me of Penzance, who won the Triumph for us a few years ago, but he is a stuffy individual and I think he could improve again on what he showed there.

"However, I am not yet going to commit myself to Grumeti as we also have Balder Succes, and a lot can happen in two and a half weeks."

Thornton added: "Balder Succes is the more rangy of the two, taller with less about him. His future is next season because, while he has loads of talent, he also has a lot of strengthening up to do and he can still be a bit gassy.

"Remember, Balder Succes never ran on the Flat, whereas Grumeti is streetwise from two seasons with Michael Bell "

Any news on ranjaan!!!!!!! not good

i think there's plenty of improvement to come from Dodging Bullets,forgive me for repeating myself,as i mentioned this before,i backed Grumeti on sat and i was worried for a moment or two that DB was gonna beat him,How anyone couldnt be impressed baffles me,it was a grade 2 not a maiden!

i agree with you about the "Value" part,im 100% the same,and wouldnt put u off backing UDS at his current price,you and a few others have given excellent reasoning why he is great value,and its hard to disagree.i also think UDS would be a lot shorter if trained by Nicholls/Henderson/Mullins,

ps,was just looking through the Triumph prices there and seen that ut de sivola is available at 33/1,i was listening to Willie Mullins been interview earlier and he said prior to his disappointing run behind Hisabaat he had training problem's and that he'd draw a line through that run,i wouldnt really fancy him as such,but again,that word "value" comes into it,he could be well overpriced if bouncing back to form,and i'd always be inclined to forgive a horse one bad run if the price is right

DB is 27's as I speak was 90 summat this morning looks to me as though he's gonna run GL. Win win 4 me as already on.

You get some of the 90s solving?
excellent work if u did,and good luck

Was already on @ 40's, was a brave man who took the 90's PN did state Chelt would be too soon for him & Aintree looked likely target?  GL

Still not been confirmed tho,im going to a preview night that Ruby is at tomorrow i'll try get it out of him

In awe OTS & rest my case on what I said earlier. All forms of torture permitted!

I thought that at the prices it looked more likely that DB was going to run. I remember that PN said he was a bit green and would be more likely to go to Aintree. Must be in the balance at the moment. His run was satisfactory considering it was a first time out and sure he'll improve for the experience. Maybe owners definitely want a Cheltenham runner. Will wait and see as am against him at the moment and will have a re-think if he is a confirmed runner.

PFN said today he hasn't decided yet and hasn't talked to the owner about it yet.

Agreed with fearless punter that hollow tree is the value at the moment....

Anyone who thinks Grumeti wants soft ground should give up betting on horses now.

On at 40/1 and 33/1 DB. PN told me he hoped it would be good enough to win the Triumph, and although its got miles to improve it isn't beyond the realms of possibility.

just back from a preview night,Ruby said Dodging Bullets is going to Aintree,not Cheltenham

Ty OTS saves me throwing any good after bad, UDS for me now. GL.

@onthesnaff, thanks for the update. I have nothing against the horse. Feel it was actually a very pleasing first run.

Watch the preview on RPTV. In discussing Ranjaan, Ed Quigley says wins well on Newbury debut, beating Urbain de Sivola by 10l - part of me finds this hysterical but another utterly disgraceful to mislead people in this way. Very, very shoddy imo

Darroun 20/1 to 12/1 with Lads looks like a runner.

Perhaps - but more likely contracted due to Laddies now NRNB

Perhaps your right Roo.I believe he said on ATR that it raced proper last and would go to the race.

I just noticed VC has just went 16s.the 21 on here wont last.

That's fair enough but had a look a few horses to see what prices now and all much shorter - especially Invictus for the RSA because if it had still been 12s I would have gone in (yet) again but is now 8s. If you are confident he is going to pitch up take the 16s elsewhere but just don't think you should use the Laddies price as a guide

In fact take the 16s with VC as they are also NRNB - I have just another small bet on UDS with them at 20s NRNB

i wouldnt give up on ut de sivola either,Both Ruby and willie was sweet enough on its chances,
Had excuses last time out and were running it to get more experience,wouldnt be at all surprised if it bounced back to form in the Triumph

It could be a bit of value OTS - the Triumph looks quite weak this year, there's certainly no exceptional standout.

agreed Stront,Everyone's been beating everyone really,apart from the odd few,
as you say,doesnt look a superstar amongst them from what we've seen

Just added Darroun to my bets for this race. Think 16/1 NRNB is a great price.

Personally think UDS looks a soft ground horse and cant see Chelts suiting him. I think Ruby will ride Darroun and in an open race he will have every chance. I have a feeling the Irish juveniles are better this season and respect all of Darroun, Shadow catcher and Hishabaat against the home contingent

which uds are you referring to CCM?

Ah. Ut de Sivola!

Just to clarify my bet is the other one - though having said that he could also be a soft ground horse

Realise that now sorry!

In fairness Grumeti would be 4/4 but for falling.

Cant wait till he hacks up to be honest.

Got a nice few quid on Grumeti myself and cant have him out of the first 3 Sint.

No worries - do you honestly think he'll pick Darroun over Pearl Swan? If he does you are right about the price, probable SP of half that

Obviously Pearl Swan would be fav, and it will be a big decision, but I've just got a funny feeling he will ride Darroun. My moles tell me he is working really well.

OK thanks - interesting

He's another Dalakhani though CCM!
Don't like them as Hurdlers,but ruby and willie had no negatives about him last night,
GL

Can't argue with that OTS! Certainly something to think about. What preview were you at mate? Anything else that you found enlightening?

Was at the Westmanstown one mate,Was interesting to hear Ruby say Quel Esprit would be a good thing if he went Ryanair,but he cant convince Willie!also sounds like Midnight Game is a lot better than we've seen,good ground is essential though,Ruby thinks Zarkandar hasnt got the pace to win CH,None of the panel fancied Grands Crus at all,worst fav of the meeting ruby thought,

Was also surprised to hear willie say Mikhael D will be heading to Cheltenham,didnt say which race mind,picked Sweet My Lord when asked to pick one of his from the Handicaps,oh and Davy Russell told us not to touch New Years Eve in the Bumper,"it has no chance whatsoever" were his words,His main reason been Motivator's are absolute dogs

Good old Davey

Yes I think Midnight Game might end up being my main bet for the Supreme come the day.  Can see why Wilie wants the Gold Cup for QE, especially after todays news. Cheers for posting that, much obliged.

I know this will be a silly question to most but has Nicholls said anything about Dildar, i.e. was he affected by the cough or is he going to line up in the Triumph....I know lots will say he wont line up, I am looking for some definate info from an interview or similar,,,,thanks.

He's not running.

Being a backer of Lyvius, i was interested in the article from henderson and the handicapper in that he would need to win today to get into the race as he currently rated too low. He has just got beat so i am not thinking he will be now put up to a mark high enough for the race.

Does this mean he will now subsequently be balloted out and i will get the money back Or have i done my doe

STS I don't know for sure tbh but I would have thought money done as it is not a handicap. Anyway NH would have to make a final dec for and on today's performance that isn't going to happen is it.

Thats at least six for the race so far, any more?

CCM, you changed your opinion on Midnight Game then ?

A couple more winners at Newbury & Donny today for A.King, fwiw.

Better get the acca's rolling

Ranjaan out of race injured on gallops

Not a good week for PFN. Smashing prospect is Rajaan.

Is there still a Pricewise selection due for this race?

Yeah .. Urbain De Sivola or perhaps Darroun ?

Anyone know anything about Dodging bullets? Price seems to be contracting.

@solving the puzzle, doesn't seem to have been any money matched according to the graph. Maybe just people getting bored of waiting for a match.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-2107505/Cheltenham-Festival-Triumph-Hurdle-guide.html

KEY STATS: Since the inception of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005, the seven winners of the Triumph Hurdle have all been in the first four of the market.
Form on the Flat is a crucial attribute as the last 13 winners all had Flat form over a mile and a half with just one of the last 14 winners rated lower than 80 on the level.


Grumeti never raced beyond 10f on the flat.

Doesn't really concern me tbh Leo. Already a c&d winner at Cheltenham so we know he gets the trip, and also his flat rating of 82 was lenient for precisely the reason of never trying further. Massively well handicapped on the flat now should they go there in the future imo.

Aye, I just thought it was interesting.

Yup cheers for posting it.

Have to like Balder Succes @ 10/1 here, obliterating horses in his run so far while King says he'll get good ground. No reason to think he wont. If choc is still undecided who he'll ride then 10/1 about Balder is good value when compared to 5's on Grumeti.

Yep cant knock his chances but personally think the talking of being undecided as to which horse he will ride is just out of respect to the stablemate and some mind games etc. Choc knows which one he'll be riding,imo.

They have already described Grumeti as the most robust 4yo in the country and physically set, but say Balder is more lengthy and scopey. Perhaps one horse is ready now, the other will be better next season?

We'll find out soon enough anyway

Personally don't care which one Choc rides tbh. Ruby picked Sam winner last year for example.

Too hard to know who will do it on the big day. I'm pretty sure Pearl Swan will beat Grumeti, he did it already giving him 3lbs.

I added Balder 10/1 is too big imv.

I respect Grumeti Sint but if the rain comes (& there is a possibility) I truly believe Urbain de Sivola will take some beating. OK so my hopes are in the lap of the Gods but stranger things?

Balder Success. When a stable like King's have a choice between two and they don't/can't publicly come down big on the obvious one, we all know that there's likely to be very little in it...more likely, actually, that they're all thinking ' Tell you what, pal, that *second one* jumps quick and neat and has an engine, I like him.' Choc/Alan King/Wayne Hutch all (in inverted commas) CAN'T CHOOSE. So BS is the nailed on stable selection then. Whoever rides him. The great thing about this time of the year on the Forum is...... Get it all out, see what bites.

If only it were that simple CV!

Yes Solving have UDS on side too, probably needs to brush up his jumping a bit but if the rains comes a massive player.

As you stated on another post Sint think UDS and Darroun will be one of price**** ups selections tomorrow.
Had savers on them as back up to Grumeti 12s and Shadow Catcher 28s on here,so book looking good.

I have also played UDS but now worried about the ground. All that watering last week and then 12mm of rain yesterday and ground is still 'good in places' - that gives a real indication of how dry it is there.

Whilst the ground will be no problem for BM, I may well try and trade out of my position on UDS ( the pre NRNB bet I have )as trainer has now indicated that needs 'soft' in the going to pitch up. If he was going to run regardless I would let the bet stand

Yes fair logic Roobcuk. Has to be a possibility he wont run. Track drains like a demon aswell.

Shadow Catcher for me. I thought he should have won last time out, but was left in front far too soon. I think he'll be pricewised tomorrow as well, maybe with Darroun.

thornton will ride grumeti the mcneils have been very loyal to king and choc but a think choc would rather ride balder success nut is also sponsored by the mcneils so get on balder now am each way doubling it with salut flo

Racing Post ‏ @Racing_Post  Reply  Retweet  Favorite · Open
Triumph favourite Grumeti lame this morning after a problem with a shoe but Alan King is confident he will be fine within 48hrs

UDS drifting & Dodging Bullets in again anyone know if there are plans to run DB?

Dodging Bullets was going straight to Aintree last I heard, but has been Pricewised this morning so think it probably lines up after all, which is good, I'm on at 60s ave on here and 33/1 ew

I'm on @ 33s & was convinced my dosh was done so yep would be nice to see him line up. Not sure he can reverse with grumeti though (I'd backed him before that run) as was getting weight plus a beating but then you never know in this game as could come on a ton. Was a fair horse on the flat but is that a help or a hindrance?

FFS Grumeti not another fickin bloodbath for ante-post punters, lets hope he is sound not great news with race 10 days away.

Not the first time Segal has tipped a horse which wont be running, he tipped Silvianco Conti for the RSA when PFN said he was already heading to Aintree. If you have 60/1 or even 33's then id trade your money back tbh unless PFN has issued an update which I have not read???

Yes read that TT, not good but sounds relatively minor and still just under two weeks until this race so should be fine I hope!

With horses like this they might as well go for the best races because if they don't win they are still a novice for next season.

Clearly he should for improve from the experience and I can see the differential in price with the favourite being attractive. Though you can never be sure I would be inclined to think he will run.

Regarding UDS the drift I imagine will be ground related. Unfortunately it looks unlikely that I will be able to get out as intended and anyway I sahll now treat it as money done and not worry about it any more.

My AP is done now. And not as serious as some on here so not going to worry any further about this or any other race until final decs are made. Can do your brains in trying to read 'signs' in the market and reading all the gossip

He did tip it with the NRNB in mind and the article said if not there he would have left it at Darroun

OK fair enough, had forgot about NRNB. Though Betfair is ante-post rules so represents a good opportunity for those already on.

Yes PW always tips non runners every year, i am on DB at 40s antepost and think i have done my money though would welcome any turn around from PN!

As for Grumeti, i think its just minor, the news is he has done a shoe, horses break shoes all the time, don't necessary hurt themselves as you see them also doing this on a racecourse and still being allowed to race. Though obviously AK seemed it necessary this time to let the public know of the situation so i think maybe he has hurt is foot on this occasion, though i still think it very minor and the horse be ok with in a couple days which the article also mentions. Backed it at 12s antepost and am not worried at all at this stage though still not perfect to hear!

Well this is an obscure conundrum wrapped up in a riddle which leaves me bewildered & perplexed! Gonna go with you roobuck & just hope DB & UDS turn up & then give a good account & then hopefully one of them win. Told you this game was easy. Oh & then there's the weather?

TRIUMPH HURDLE and what they said...

Paul Nicholls - Ruby will school Dildar on Friday. He has worked and schooled well on Tuesday and there is plenty of improvement to come. He runs in the Adonis and Dodging Bullets runs in the Dovecote. Pearl Swan has the best form so far and I can get him better than last time. All are also in the Supreme so let’s see how Dildar gets on first. Paul Nicholls said Pearl Swan has the best form so far of his horses, but also said Dildar runs this Saturday, against Sadlers Risk. I (Catch Me If You Can) got the impression he has very high hopes for Dildar. Paul Nicholls did say he wouldn’t be surprised if Minsk never ran either this weekend or at Cheltenham! PN- Thought it was a harsh decision to take race away from Pearl Swan.Thinks he has best form & will improve. Dodging Bullets really interesting outsider lots of improvement. Dildar disappointing.

Philip Hobbs - Sadlers Risk is a good horse but let’s get over Saturday first. He has a lot to prove has the potential to be very good. He is my best chance of the week. Philip Hobbs said Sadlers Risk runs this Saturday, very happy with him

Nick Williams - Urbain De Sivola is a jumps bred so our chances are helped a lot if it comes up soft to make this a real stamina test. Nick Williams said Urbain De Sivola would run if ground was on the soft side

Paul Jones - Grumeti is so professional that he looks an each-way steal to me at 10/1. Paul Jones thought Minsk could go off as low at 2-1, as his flat form is far in excess of anything else

Andrew king liked Grumeti and Pearl Swan

Paul Binfield likes Darroun

Ruby and Willie both agree Ut De Sivola is way overpriced,They hadnt got him ready in his last race and wanted to get another run into him for experience,They were confident he's a lot better than he showed last time out.

Ruby Walsh - None really stand out. Maybe Ut De Sivola

Nina put up Darroun and Baby Mix but nobody felt there was a stand out juvenile left in the race.

Paul Carberry gave a mention to Gordon Elliot’s Shadow Catcher as his value in an otherwise open contest.

Tom Segal - Shadow Catcher. TS- 5/10 Adonis winners won Triumph. Likes Baby Mix. Balder Succes also a possible at a bigger price.

Jim McGrath - Shadow Catcher

David Pipe - Kazlian could still run.

Paddy Power - At a preview with Phillip Hobbs who said Saddlers Risk his best chance at festival even if Fingal Bay running. Baby Mix beat him giving 3lb. Early bets taken on Ranjan. Pearl Swan, Shadow Catcher and Balder Success.

Joe Tizzard - Paddy Brennan told him about Baby Mix at the start of season. Felt they were training him too hard when he lost at Chelt.

Jessica Harrington - Irish form does not stand up. Use a pin to pick the winner.

Davy Russell - No bet. Bookies benefit.

Barry Geraghty - Lyvius, if he runs well on Friday in Newbury.

Colm Murphy - Saddlers Risk

Donn McClean - Shadow Catcher

Kevin O’Ryan and Damien McElroy both expressed enthusiasm for Gordon Elliot’s Shadow Catcher and the money is now coming for him.

Damien also thought Darroun is good value.

Snippet from Kevin – Robert Thornton thinks Balder Success is the better of the two Alan King horses but is committed to Grumeti, as it’s his sponsor’s horse.

Ted Walsh Jr and Tony Martin also believed Shadow Catcher was the best value but the former did pass on Ruby’s confidence with Pearl Swan. For such an open looking race this panel didn’t shy from nailing their colours to Shadow Catcher.

Gordon Elliott - His best chances of a winner are ... Shadow Catcher (Will be on the bridle at the last hurdle in the Triumph but doesn't know what will happen after that).

Anyone like Hisaabaat for Triumph 16-1? Wide open race, he was only beaten over a length by Darroun (who is now around 10-1) and won next time (Grade 1), 4th and 5th in that beaten around 7l have won next time out. Slight worry he's not classy enough (rated 82 on the level) but he seems to be improving with each run and trained by D.K, who went the same route with Unaccompanied (much stronger division last year)..

i was at Westmanstown preview night last week,and ruby was going through his Charity Bets and someone in the crowd shouted out Dodging Bullets,Ruby laughed and said it wouldnt be very clever tipping a Non Runner as its heading to aintree,He's not going to Cheltenham im afraid lads

Like Hisaabaat too , on at 40s downwards after his second to Ut De Sivola , just liked his attitude . Liked the way he picked them up off the bend last time and think good ground might help him up the hill , but wudnt want to see him till after the last . Ok he has been on the go for a long time , the blinds may not work again and the course is a worry but very likeable individual.

Roobuck - great news Dodging Bullets goes PN must think he deserves his chance.
Oh oh sometimes I get a good feeling - yeh.

Baby Mix (6) , Grumeti (6) , Sadlers Risk (6) , Balder Succes (8) , Pearl Swan (8) , Shadow Catcher (10) , Darroun (12) , Dodging Bullets (16) , Hisaabaat (16) , Hollow Tree (20) , Urbain De Sivola (20) , Hinterland (25) , Kazlian (25) , Ut De Sivola (25) , Countrywide Flame (33) , Asaid (50) , Royal Bonsai (50) , West Brit (50) , Argocat (66) , Gorgeous Sixty (66)  - Others  66 or more

Has it been confirmed Dodging Bullets goes for the Triumph,solving?

OTS I saw an interview where he stated he lines up. Having said that I believe very little I hear lately in fact I often think the opposite is true.  GL this week & enjoy.

Cheers solving,you too mate