Cheltenham Festival
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Beaten 6 lengths by Big Zeb and Forpady last time out, this must be the biggest cert of the week if he gets there. Can't see anyone pricing this up yet, hopefully be available at around 3's by the time nrnb comes around. Will make or break my week anyway, really can't see it beat on form barring major accidents, which I know happened at the last cheltenham race in December. 4pts win.
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if this horses makes or breaks ur week id be worried!
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my cert for the week too
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Looks a cracker doesn't it. Was cruising when he ran out in that bizarre prep race at Cheltenham, but it meenas he's had a good look at the course. Likley to have way more class than anything else in the field (as long as he stays - but the race is usually crawl-crawl-crawl-crawl-sprint anyway).
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prices available with vc. 7/2
I agree lookes good - fill yer boots |
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uncle junior if i wass going to have a bet
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cant agree more my friend im all over it like a rash.the way it was travelling when it took the wrong course plus the above mentioned form it looks like a maximum bet when it goes nrnb.just hope we can get a decent price then.7/2 at the mo which is massive imo.
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Ive stated on a previous thread a few weeks ago about scotsirish. although most people arent fans of the race it tends to have l;ittle strength in depth and has been one of the more profitable for me over the years...this year i believe SCOTSIRISH to be the best bet of the meeting at the prices and imo the best horse to have run in such a race. His form is just different class. I was gutted on him getting taken out in Dec after getting 5-2 and ive taken all the 4-1 for this race when the prices came out.The 7-2 now is huge and should be 5-4 or should i say should be on the day.Without doubt a great bet as we speak.
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Win double with Quevega. Both look certainties to me
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I'm not so sure about Scotsirish being a certainty or the relevance of his race with BZ et al over 2m 1f in the context of this race. I have watched the race again a few times and for me there was still a race on at that point
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^^ the point that they ran out in the X country race that is
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thedemps - what stands out for me is that he has the speed of a 2 mile chaser. That should be a massive asset at the end of a race that usually turns in to a sprint, where nothing in opposition is likely to have his class.
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That's what I thought about Maljimar last year and he just didnt get home. This race is all about jumping and stamina IMO
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He seemed OK for both at the last attempt but you're right, that race was far from won (I'm still sore A New Story rode out after initially going the right way).
Two differences between Scots and Maljimar though - Scots was rated a stone better as a "normal" chaser and Maljimar had already been beaten in the race before. |
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Forget any form over regulation fences, the XC course is entirely unique, the one thing that counts more than anything in this is experiences of banks courses - I haven't checked the horses record but has he seen XC courses more than a couple of time ?
I remember watching him at Cheltenham in Dec when Garde Champetre won, he seemed to run in snatches and didn't jump too fluently, he may well have won that day had they not taken the wrong course but A New Story was going with him and he's a 13 year old. His subsequent run behind Noble Prince and the others has probably done him no favours given that the XC is a handicap - if he's given 11st 12lb there'll be some seasoned pros in this sphere down the handicap who I think will represent value - not sure who they are and finding them is another battle, but they'll be there somewhere.... |
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i see scotsirish is running in the cross country race at punch on sunday, think its time to get on now cos if it hoses up which i think it will what price will we be looking at then ?
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l got on this fella at 13/2 before the run in December, missed the 8/1 that was 1st show and around in the week leading upto the last race. l remember people having major doubts about whether Garde would stay and he did no problem. As Aiden O'Brien says "Good horses can run at any distance" and when you consider he'll be the class act in the race l have only a tiny doubt that he won't stay. Remember that Cheltenham can't/don't water the X-Country course so it is generally firm ground which obviously will be a help to the "non stayers". l thought he handled the track well enough last time considering it was his first look at it and expect him to be sharper for it this time around and l also thought he was still travelling sweetly enough when taken out of the race. As a previous poster put, they crawl crawl crawl sprint up the home straight, the fact he can still run at 2m in graded company will be a massive asset up the home straight. lt my also be a blessing in disguise that he didn't finish the race last time with regards to his handicap mark.
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It will be interesting what weight that Scotsirish gets allocated but given he raced off a mark of 153 on his only start over this course back in December a good guess would put him off virtually top weight.
Much has been made of the fact that his form looks head and shoulders above what much of the rest of his potential counterparts have achieved(which there can be little arguement),but it must be worth at least considering that despite to be looking as if he was going to have a big say in the race back in December he was not past the post and that there were several others still well in contention when the incident happerned turning for home.What also must be given at least some consideration is the fact he is yet to win beyond 3 miles apart from in a point to point back in April 2005 and in a banks races earlier in the season (which was a non handicap).Its slightly suprising that his trainer has ran him a total of 3 times between that point win in 2005 and his win over the banks in November 2011 over a trip of 3 miles,does this suggest that maybe stamina isn't or hasn't been considered this horses strongest asset previously? |
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It wins, end of...without doubt the best value of the meeting imo at 7-2 ( took 4s ) im not saying is big bucks like banker but the price is very reasonable imo. Scotsirish as stated before on the forum is miles ahead of these on abilty. the classiest horse to run in such a race .
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He doesn't win many races though does he?I can accept that he has ran some excellent races off marks in the mid 150's in valuable handicaps but he has also been beaten in non handicaps off level weights when having a stone or more in hand at the weights in those contests.If he's anyones banker then fair play to them but a horse who is likely to carry top weight in a race over a mile further than hes ever won over on a unique course he has little experience of isn't my idea of a forgone conclusion
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I must be missing something. This is a handicap and the weights (and opposition) are as yet unknown and yet people are backing this horse at 3/1 or less on here several weeks before the race. I find that strange and yes I have layed it (relatively small amounts as I'm not a big player).
As always time will tell. |
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Today's race is something of an acid test - it's been a fantastic trial for the Festival XC.
Brian - the festival XC is a race that the betting market virtually always gets right. The opposition is broadly known because so few horses run in cross country races and the winners virtually always have experience over the banks at Cheltenham and/or Punchestown - so it's highly unlikley anything comes out of the woodwork. Yes it's a handicap, but it's not a normal handicap. Traditional handicap marks are almost meanaingless because it's such an unusual course and because the races tend to be run crawl-crawl-crawl-crawl-sprint (so weight doesn't matter in the same way it does when a normal chase is run at a decent clip). I agree there are some doubts about Scotsirish, but even so I think he's a stand out bet for the meeting. As you say, time will tell! |
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certainly a standout today
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steering job today
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Pleased with that from the Festival point of view - good practice.
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Don't agree it was a steering job - travelled well and didn't jump the last too well made it hard work up the run in, should have been more comfortable than it was.
Nina was almost out the side door 4 or 5 from home, how much that cost Garde Champetre I don't know, it;s now down to the handicapper as to how he views the pair, if GC gets 7lb I'd fancy him to turn the at Cheltenham. |
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Aside from Garde Champetre he beat nothing else of any real note and will be conceeding more weight to better horses over further in March.
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Absolutely cruised to the last though, then asserted pretty easily on the run in (after fluffing the last). It was a typical XC race though, run at a crawl and turning into a sprint. Garde has become very accident prone lately - there's no reason to assume he'll put in a clean round at Cheltenham when he hasn't for a while. I also don't see why the handicapper will show Garde any mercy - his last three races at Cheltenham have been 122 including the Festival (even if the 1 should have been an 8!).
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Only Mr P Mullins will get it beat awful jockey!
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could have won 20 lengths if the jockey had decided to take it up any time from the 4th last when everything was being ridden along then he makes a momentum-stopping mistake at the last but still picked up and was going away
massively superior |
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Yep. You hardly ever see an XC race won by more than a few lengths, mainly because of how they tend to be run.
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yes that horse travelled on the bridle the whole way and was only ever going to do enough on the run in. They could have travelled much faster throughout the race and he would have still lobbed along and won even easier
had tons and tons in hand |
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absoloutly agree with jodorick and strontium,the horse oozes class compared to other xcountry runners.think it had plenty left in left in the tank. ideal prep for march when better ground will suit alot more imo. still the one to beat.
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Afterwards Mullins said “I thought Scotsirish made hard work of it but the ground was very heavy. His banking is very slick and he is getting better at it all the time - I imagine he’ll go to that Corss Country Race at Cheltenham now and hopefully himself and Uncle Junior will go there.”
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Worthy favourite I'd say, but Cheltenham is a handicap and if the 'capper takes a view that he should go up a few pound for todays win then he could find himself giving decent horses plenty of weight and his current price of 3/1 won't look great value
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Very interested in Sizing Australia given his excellent record on the cross country course.Difficult to see him out of the frame imo
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The horse is handicapped on running Big Zeb to 6 l and other similar high quality performances over shorter. It's hard to see why he'd go up today (but its hard to handicap anything using a cross country race so who knows!). In any case, as explained above, I wouldn't worry about weight in the XC, and horses with a lot of weight have a good record. 3/1 still looks a superb bet to me.
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can't see how the trainer can say "made hard work of it" and mean it
we all saw what happened, he cruised throughout the race then fluffed the last fence and had to be asked to assert his superiority in the final 100 yards. With a fluent jump at the last it would have a hands and heels job |
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Has Sizing Aus recovered from his injury?
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Henry De Bromhead has confirmed that Sizing Australia is on course to defend his title in the Glenfarclas Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The 10-year-old accounted for Garde Champetre last season but has not taken part in the the two Cross Country races that have taken place at Prestbury Park this season. De Bromhead told skysports.com: "Unfortunately he got a setback in September so we couldn't have him ready for either of the Autumn or Winter Cross Country races. "He will be going to the Festival after a couple of runs over hurdles." |