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a lot of debate on the horse forums about not being able to get on the great mans ante post tips to any great money , well the best way would be to try and second guess him ,i e think like he does and look for an edge ,as i said in a the champion hurdle posts if we can second guess him a week or so before the race we have enough time to fill our boots and also to trade off at the prices as the inevitable flood of money comes in for his tips ,
next tuesday he is focusing on the 2m champion chase ,and where better to start than the reigning champion sizing europe a fluent jumper who loves cheltenham and good ground and who added the champion chase last year to the arkle he won the year the before he is going to be tough to beat as his trainer has had him spot on for the last 2 years ,but we know tom will not put this one up due to the price ,
next best is big zeb another former winner of the race and a good 2nd last year but he is an 11 year old now and it is unlikly tom will put him up , the race is rather cloudy in that we do not know for sure what races some of these are going to end up in , that is where ladds nrn bet option is invaluable ,finians rainbow is an improver and around 8/1 but he doesnt have a lot in hand of wishfull thinking who he beat narrowly and is more than 3 times the price at 25/1 ,tom could opt for wishfull thinking but he may be targeted at the ryanair so i think he will swerve him ,
also noble prince has the ryanair option and at 14s is a bit short for a horses who seems best over further , realt dubhs trainer has also stated that the ryanaire is the target .
captain chris would have to be taken very seriusly if he was to take the champion route but he has the gold cup on the agenda ,we will know more after his next run .
the novice al ferof is also prominent in the betting but his participation seems to hinge on his performance in the victor chandler chase for which he is favourite ,we will know more after the v.c but somehow i cant see tom putting up a novice in a race with seasoned speedsters , the one who interests me at a price and who could show massive improvement is paul nicholls kauto stone who won over further in ireland and who was in the process of running a stormer in the tingle creek ,he travelled strongly and jumped superbly upsides sizing europe untill the 3rd last when he blundered and i think he would have really put it up to sizing euro that day if it wasnt for that mistake the gulf he has to make up is not that great , .he is too big at the prices for me and rates the bet .
he is said to want slow ground but his illustrious brother the great kauto goes best on good ground and he may even improve for it plus cheltenham could be right up his street ,at 20s each way at laddies non runner no bet he appeals as the bet at this stage and if he dont go money back.
thats my take on it, whats yours if you have a view put it up ,its all about opinions.
next tuesday he is focusing on the 2m champion chase ,and where better to start than the reigning champion sizing europe a fluent jumper who loves cheltenham and good ground and who added the champion chase last year to the arkle he won the year the before he is going to be tough to beat as his trainer has had him spot on for the last 2 years ,but we know tom will not put this one up due to the price ,
next best is big zeb another former winner of the race and a good 2nd last year but he is an 11 year old now and it is unlikly tom will put him up , the race is rather cloudy in that we do not know for sure what races some of these are going to end up in , that is where ladds nrn bet option is invaluable ,finians rainbow is an improver and around 8/1 but he doesnt have a lot in hand of wishfull thinking who he beat narrowly and is more than 3 times the price at 25/1 ,tom could opt for wishfull thinking but he may be targeted at the ryanair so i think he will swerve him ,
also noble prince has the ryanair option and at 14s is a bit short for a horses who seems best over further , realt dubhs trainer has also stated that the ryanaire is the target .
captain chris would have to be taken very seriusly if he was to take the champion route but he has the gold cup on the agenda ,we will know more after his next run .
the novice al ferof is also prominent in the betting but his participation seems to hinge on his performance in the victor chandler chase for which he is favourite ,we will know more after the v.c but somehow i cant see tom putting up a novice in a race with seasoned speedsters , the one who interests me at a price and who could show massive improvement is paul nicholls kauto stone who won over further in ireland and who was in the process of running a stormer in the tingle creek ,he travelled strongly and jumped superbly upsides sizing europe untill the 3rd last when he blundered and i think he would have really put it up to sizing euro that day if it wasnt for that mistake the gulf he has to make up is not that great , .he is too big at the prices for me and rates the bet .
he is said to want slow ground but his illustrious brother the great kauto goes best on good ground and he may even improve for it plus cheltenham could be right up his street ,at 20s each way at laddies non runner no bet he appeals as the bet at this stage and if he dont go money back.
thats my take on it, whats yours if you have a view put it up ,its all about opinions.
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he could well end up here stron ,but as you well know trying to 2nd guess w.mullins will lead you to the poor house ,have heard hes going for the gold cup,champion chase ,even heard talk of the 4 miler from some, who knows ,best back him with ladds nrnb if you fancy him for anything .
I know its very unlikely to pitch up, but if he did I would like Captain Chris for this race.
FR at the moment seems the only credible threat to Sizing as you know that this is the race he will go for. I see no reason why FR would reverse Arkle form at Cheltenham
FR at the moment seems the only credible threat to Sizing as you know that this is the race he will go for. I see no reason why FR would reverse Arkle form at Cheltenham
There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner. The last QM winner not to win the Arkle, when running in it, was way back in 1993, Deep Sensation. That stat will take me away from FR. He will not look at the 1st 2 in the betting, SE & BZ due to price and age although of the 2, it would def rule out BZ. Only 2 11yo have won in over 50yrs. As Foyle stated earlier, he does not tip up horses that have not been seen this season so take out NP. As he put up CC for GC glory, he aint gonna put it up in this too.
I also think he will opt for the Nicholls trained Kauto Stone. It's only had 2 starts since coming over from France and with only 8L to find with the champion, which included a bad mistake, I think Tom will put up KS. 25s just now
I also think he will opt for the Nicholls trained Kauto Stone. It's only had 2 starts since coming over from France and with only 8L to find with the champion, which included a bad mistake, I think Tom will put up KS. 25s just now
Didn't he put up Finians Rainbow for this after last year's Arkle? 
I'll be stunned if Kauto Stone runs in this.
What is NP btw willie? I assume Noble Prince, if so he's run three times already, twice finishing second to Big Zeb. Anyhow his trainer has stated the aim is Ryanair, not a trainer I'd trust, but makes full sense in this case.
What is NP btw willie? I assume Noble Prince, if so he's run three times already, twice finishing second to Big Zeb. Anyhow his trainer has stated the aim is Ryanair, not a trainer I'd trust, but makes full sense in this case.
yes willie this race looks sure to cut up ,and kauto stone and wishfull thinking are the 2 unexposed ones more so kauto stone as had fewer chases ,(dont know how much chasing expierience he had in france )have watched the tingle creek a couple of times and wishfull thinking went off to fast and was cooked before 2 out he could do better with more restraint as he did at kempton, only just beaten by finians but i thought hobbs said he favours ryanaire so that leaves kauto stone as the other possible improver ! have backed kauto may back wishfull think as well at ladds nrnb .
think nicholls will want one in this its a high profile race ,he may think al ferof up to the job and he may be right its a nightmare to be honest as you just dont know who, other than the top 2 in the betting is going for for the champion or ryanair or other targets .....at least if yer back with ladds you get the insurance .................
Foyles - Quel esprit can't run in the 4 miler as he's not a novice.
Nicholls has said, I believe, Kauto Stone will go for the Ryanair. He didn't look quick enough to deal with Sizing Europe at Sandown. However, he has been known to change his mind.
Nicholls has said, I believe, Kauto Stone will go for the Ryanair. He didn't look quick enough to deal with Sizing Europe at Sandown. However, he has been known to change his mind.
Stront - if Kauto Stone is not fast enough, then he could be selected, after all he selected Oscars Well. He might pull Hold Fast out of the hat. He used the race he won on Saturday for Master Minded before his first Champion.
yes stront disregard the 4 miler i was mistaking something i heard on another thread , if kauto stone dont run in the champion ill get my money back ,but other than kauto ,or wish think cant think who pricewise will put up, cant see him tipping gauvain either .
I'd be very suprised if he were to put Hold Fast up as apart from winning the race Master minded won at Sandown prior to the champion chase the two horses had completely different profiles,that said it wouldn't be a total shock if he were to put something up that was a little bit leftfield.My guess at this moment as to his pick would rest between Realt Dubh and Noble Prince.Noble Prince has been campaigned at the minimum all season and doesn't have a massive amount of ground to make up with Big Zeb on either of his last two runs.Don't forget that Sizing Europe was over six lengths behind Big Zeb last winter in Ireland before turning the form round on spring ground at Cheltenham at the festival.Granted his trainer has nominated the Ryanair as his likely Festival target but at very big prices and NRNB with some of the books he might tempt more than a few.Realt Dubh is a 3 time grade one winner including twice at two miles,He may step up to further in time but given he is still relatively unexposed over fences he may be the chosen selection
am sure n.meade said he favours ryanair for realt dubh, but things can change!
Everyone seems to favour everything for the Ryanair and that race could be a classic. It certainly looks deeper than either the Gold Cup or QMCC. However if a few trainers think the CC is weak, especially if something happens to BZ or SE, we may well see some running plans change. The entries will be interesting on Thurs!
Wonder what price Al Ferof will be if he beats his elders a week on saturday at Ascot?If that does happern then i'd say the Champion would be his more likely Festival target
Which Novices will be entered on the off chance? If so does anybody think they'd beat BZ & SE?
For me the play at the minute is 9/4 Sizing and 20/1 Kauto Stone EW both NRNB
captain cee bee. check out last years race. e/w obviosuly
I couldn't contemplate backing Sizing Europe at the current prices.He may be the defending champion from last year and does clearly have the advantage of having been there and done it at two previous festivals but there is no getting away from the fact he is 10 years old and very few horses manage to win this race at his age.Beating Kauto Stone over 2 miles on ground that wasn't near soft enough for the runner up over a trip the runner up would of found way short of his optimum does't entitle sizing to be anywhere near his current odds
I would not be put off by sizing Europe's age for a second, he looked as good as ever in the Tingle Creek, plus he is a relatively lightly raced horse. There is no strength in depth to this market, I can't see past the horse atm.
I have no idea what Tom will pick, at the prices only Flat Out is of interest to me, but not seen this season. He's enetered up this weekend which may tell us some more about his well being.
I have no idea what Tom will pick, at the prices only Flat Out is of interest to me, but not seen this season. He's enetered up this weekend which may tell us some more about his well being.
I thought someone else may have given Flat Out a mention.
He is very unexposed, and ran a good fifth in the Supreme Novices behind Menorah, when probably inexperienced horse in the race, having only won a maiden hurdle previously.
They didn't hang about over hurdles and sent him straight chasing, and he was travelling really well when coming down in the Irish Arkle two out, and he surely would have beaten Noble Prince and Realt Dubh, and been Ireland's main Arkle hope last year.
He is entered into a 2m4f hurdle this weekend, so it seems that he is on the road to recovery. I'd only back him NRNB, but he's similar to Quel Esprit; when he gets it right he has the potential to get right to the top.
He is very unexposed, and ran a good fifth in the Supreme Novices behind Menorah, when probably inexperienced horse in the race, having only won a maiden hurdle previously.
They didn't hang about over hurdles and sent him straight chasing, and he was travelling really well when coming down in the Irish Arkle two out, and he surely would have beaten Noble Prince and Realt Dubh, and been Ireland's main Arkle hope last year.
He is entered into a 2m4f hurdle this weekend, so it seems that he is on the road to recovery. I'd only back him NRNB, but he's similar to Quel Esprit; when he gets it right he has the potential to get right to the top.
Sorry GI Mac, didn't see the second paragraph of your post above
No worries. For me he looks the only one in the market with the potential to be top class and mix it with the top two. I'm not a fan of FR and the rest look mainly exposed, or have other targets. I've been swithering over baldblokes price of 20/1 NRNB for a bit.
willie the milk
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There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner. The last QM winner not to win the Arkle, when running in it, was way back in 1993, Deep Sensation. That stat will take me away from FR. He will not look at the 1st 2 in the betting, SE & BZ due to price and age although of the 2, it would def rule out BZ. Only 2 11yo have won in over 50yrs. As Foyle stated earlier, he does not tip up horses that have not been seen this season so take out NP. As he put up CC for GC glory, he aint gonna put it up in this too.
I also think he will opt for the Nicholls trained Kauto Stone. It's only had 2 starts since coming over from France and with only 8L to find with the champion, which included a bad mistake, I think Tom will put up KS. 25s just now
This info is meaningless unless you know how many horses beaten in the Arkle have attempted the QMCC next season .. ?
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There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner. The last QM winner not to win the Arkle, when running in it, was way back in 1993, Deep Sensation. That stat will take me away from FR. He will not look at the 1st 2 in the betting, SE & BZ due to price and age although of the 2, it would def rule out BZ. Only 2 11yo have won in over 50yrs. As Foyle stated earlier, he does not tip up horses that have not been seen this season so take out NP. As he put up CC for GC glory, he aint gonna put it up in this too.
I also think he will opt for the Nicholls trained Kauto Stone. It's only had 2 starts since coming over from France and with only 8L to find with the champion, which included a bad mistake, I think Tom will put up KS. 25s just now
This info is meaningless unless you know how many horses beaten in the Arkle have attempted the QMCC next season .. ?
Sin - It still puts me off horses that cannot win the Arkle attempting an ever harder race the next year.
Your right Barn. Noble Prince has been out this season. I do think the deeper the better for him tho.
Your right Barn. Noble Prince has been out this season. I do think the deeper the better for him tho.
willie the milk Date Joined: 16 Mar 05
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There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner.
Hi willie not having a pop but when Newmill won this race in 2006 he had never even run at Chelters let alone in the arkle.
I would agree with your earlier post though about horses which have failed to win the arkle coming back for the champion chase.
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There are only 2 places to look for the Queen Mother winner. 1)The previous years race. 2)The previous years Arkle winner.
Hi willie not having a pop but when Newmill won this race in 2006 he had never even run at Chelters let alone in the arkle.
I would agree with your earlier post though about horses which have failed to win the arkle coming back for the champion chase.
Have we got any stats on that Monte ? Any numbers to back it up ??
Yes I did notice that MC. I believe it was it's first run outside of Ireland. My mate had £50 e-w @ 33s AP
It would be good to see how many runners that run in the Arkle went on to compete in the following year's QM. I don't think it will be a high number tbh, but as I posted earlier, Deep Sensation was the last to win the QM after running, but not winning, the Arkle
Well at least we can say it has been done before then with Deep Sensation.
I agree the number probably wont be high, no more than 10 i'd imagine, in which case this would not be a big enough sample size to draw firm conclusions from.
I agree the number probably wont be high, no more than 10 i'd imagine, in which case this would not be a big enough sample size to draw firm conclusions from.
I think the figure might be higher than anticipated. Only looked at the 2010 Arkle won by Sizing Europe. There were 3 btn horses from that race went on to contest the following years QM. Somersby 3rd in Arkle 5th QM, Mad Max 4th then 10th and Woolcombe Folly last then 2nd last.
3 also from 2009. Pady, tho won the Arkle. Kalahai King and Golden Silver. Not lookin any further. imho, if you can't win the Arkle, you won't likely win the QM
He's going to go for Wishful Thinking. End of. :)
One not even considered a good enough 2 miler to run in the Arkle last year. WT looks more like a Ryanair horse to me
Not sure that's necessarily fair thedemps - connections clearly made a good decision running Captain Chris in the Arkle and they were never going to run both horses in the same race.
Where will Tom go now with only these entered? A few listed on this thread not entered.
Al Ferof
Big Zeb
Blazing Tempo
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Forpadydeplasterer
Gauvain
Ghizao
Hold Fast
I'msingingtheblues
I'm So Lucky
Kauto Stone
Nacarat
Oiseau De Nuit
Peddlers Cross
Realt Dubh
Sizing Europe
Somersby
Wishfull Thinking
Al Ferof
Big Zeb
Blazing Tempo
Dan Breen
Finian's Rainbow
Forpadydeplasterer
Gauvain
Ghizao
Hold Fast
I'msingingtheblues
I'm So Lucky
Kauto Stone
Nacarat
Oiseau De Nuit
Peddlers Cross
Realt Dubh
Sizing Europe
Somersby
Wishfull Thinking
The two I suggested are still on the list 
Trouble is, both may also go for the Ryanair.
Of the 19, how many are likely runners?
I reckon only Big Zeb, Sizing Europe, Finians Rainbow and Ghizao have this as their most likley target. Nacarat might run as he's not entered for the others.
Al Ferof and Peddlers will probably run in the Arkle.
Realt Dubh, Somersby, Kauto Stone, Forpady will probably run in the Ryanair.
Some of these will end up in the Grand Annual (Dan Breen? Hold Fast? Oiseau de Nuit? I'msingingtheblues? I'm so lucky?)
Gauvain or Wishful Thinking could go either QMCC or Ryanair.
It could be a tiny field in the QMCC this season.
Trouble is, both may also go for the Ryanair.Of the 19, how many are likely runners?
I reckon only Big Zeb, Sizing Europe, Finians Rainbow and Ghizao have this as their most likley target. Nacarat might run as he's not entered for the others.
Al Ferof and Peddlers will probably run in the Arkle.
Realt Dubh, Somersby, Kauto Stone, Forpady will probably run in the Ryanair.
Some of these will end up in the Grand Annual (Dan Breen? Hold Fast? Oiseau de Nuit? I'msingingtheblues? I'm so lucky?)
Gauvain or Wishful Thinking could go either QMCC or Ryanair.
It could be a tiny field in the QMCC this season.
How far down the placings does the prize money go? It may tempt the handicappers?
Last year, to 6th: £182,432.00, £68,448.00, £34,272.00, £17,088.00, £8,576.00, £4,288.00
I expect a few of the handicappers will have a go but (a) they won't win and (b) it's hard to predict which ones.
I expect a few of the handicappers will have a go but (a) they won't win and (b) it's hard to predict which ones.
Wishful will be the one,and looking at that list i will be amazed if it aint.
somersby may come into the picture if he wins the vc i no hen knight stated ryanair but if he has and entry and beats fr and al ferof etc wold give him a good form chance..id like to see him make running put his jumping to good use
After reading the PN column on here, looks like Kauto Stone will run in the Ryanair and Al Ferof will go for the Arkle. So back to the drawing board for Tom's selection. DOH
think the only way he can go now is with wishfull thinking
Do you get to see much racing CVB?
Is it just replays on Sportinglife and ATR?
Is it just replays on Sportinglife and ATR?
I see most big ones, stream them via 365 or PadyP
Realt Dubh should go Ryanair, form tied with Noble P who is fav
Realt Dubh should go Ryanair, form tied with Noble P who is fav
I see most big ones, stream them via 365 or PadyP
Realt Dubh should go Ryanair, form tied with Noble P who is fav
Realt Dubh should go Ryanair, form tied with Noble P who is fav
Nobody think he might just take a Newmillesque flyer and put up Hold Fast?
He might just be the only genuine two-miler Nicholls has, and although he would have to improve massively, he has only been with the yard for a short while, dotted up at Sandown last time, and we all know Master Minded followed a similar route when winning his first QM.
Am not saying for one minute that this horse is another Master Minded but in a race of very limited possibilities from an ante-post point of view, I wonder if this is a possibility. Only run nine times in his life, too, so open to improvement.
He might just be the only genuine two-miler Nicholls has, and although he would have to improve massively, he has only been with the yard for a short while, dotted up at Sandown last time, and we all know Master Minded followed a similar route when winning his first QM.
Am not saying for one minute that this horse is another Master Minded but in a race of very limited possibilities from an ante-post point of view, I wonder if this is a possibility. Only run nine times in his life, too, so open to improvement.
Now I see that Gauvain has been left in the VC, I think that'll be his pick. Horse has threatened to be very good without ever reaching the heights.
Personally cannot see past SE for this race though.
Personally cannot see past SE for this race though.
I agree with tomdeane. Hold Fast would be my pick. Impressive lto and also very well backed on the day.
at the price i'd be willing to take a chance on wishful thinking, hobbs has been more upbeat about him lately and if we rewind back to his aintree run where choc thornton was so impressed at what he did in front of him on medermit, and going into this year where he was a lively champion chase horse...if he is getting back to that sort of form then 17's on here right now is over-priced...but you are taking quite a bit on trust that he shows it in the victor chandler....it'll be make or break come saturday night most probably.
Wishfull Thinking & Finians Rainbow are currently being shortened by most bookies. Looks like 1 of these is pricewised.
Surprised if he's thinks there's value in Finians price!
Agreed Stront, however I don't think there's a lot in WT price either.
Not now. Maybe a week ago. It's tough because as we've all discussed it's a race with a likely small field. In a similar event (the King George) he put up Kauto Star at 5/1.
I think now is the time to get in each way at good prices and 3 places. If you look at the market, the best prices are:
S Europe 9/4: Confirmed runner
B Zeb 9/2: Confirmed runner
F Rainbow 6/1: Confirmed runner
A Fefof 14/1: Maybe 25% chance of running (depends on VC chase)
P Cross 16/1: Less chance than Al Ferof imo
W Thinking 20/1: Highly likely will run
K Stone 20/1: 40% QMCC, 60% Ryanair
Gauvain 25/1: 50% QMCC, 50% Ryanair
Realt Dubh 25/1: 30% QMCC, 70% Ryanair
Hold Fast 33/1: Likely to run, but could go Grand Annual
Ghizao 33/1: I'd assume handicap route
Somersby 33/1: 10% QMCC, 90% Ryanair
So of top 12 in the market, so far I'd say at the moment only Sizing, Zeb, Finians and Wishful Thinking are definite runners.
I don't think there will be much change in prices of the top 3 in the market between now and March, so that only leaves Wishul Thinking; so 20/1 on what could be the 4th fav on the day will look a tasty price.
I'm on Gauvain at around 40ish (and a saver in the Ryanair), with the idea that loads will pull out, and if he runs well in the VC Chase, he could come in to about 12's - 16's, and be an intended runner.
The main point I'm trying to make is if you fancy an outsider, I think now is the time to back e/w on Wishful Thinking, Gauvain and Hold Fast because when the field cuts up the prices will shrink massively, and will be sure of top 3, 1/4 of the odds.
S Europe 9/4: Confirmed runner
B Zeb 9/2: Confirmed runner
F Rainbow 6/1: Confirmed runner
A Fefof 14/1: Maybe 25% chance of running (depends on VC chase)
P Cross 16/1: Less chance than Al Ferof imo
W Thinking 20/1: Highly likely will run
K Stone 20/1: 40% QMCC, 60% Ryanair
Gauvain 25/1: 50% QMCC, 50% Ryanair
Realt Dubh 25/1: 30% QMCC, 70% Ryanair
Hold Fast 33/1: Likely to run, but could go Grand Annual
Ghizao 33/1: I'd assume handicap route
Somersby 33/1: 10% QMCC, 90% Ryanair
So of top 12 in the market, so far I'd say at the moment only Sizing, Zeb, Finians and Wishful Thinking are definite runners.
I don't think there will be much change in prices of the top 3 in the market between now and March, so that only leaves Wishul Thinking; so 20/1 on what could be the 4th fav on the day will look a tasty price.
I'm on Gauvain at around 40ish (and a saver in the Ryanair), with the idea that loads will pull out, and if he runs well in the VC Chase, he could come in to about 12's - 16's, and be an intended runner.
The main point I'm trying to make is if you fancy an outsider, I think now is the time to back e/w on Wishful Thinking, Gauvain and Hold Fast because when the field cuts up the prices will shrink massively, and will be sure of top 3, 1/4 of the odds.
AP you get 3 places and 1/4 odds - number of final runners makes no difference
I think the race in ireland in feb will tell us the winner.
Not if last years race is anything to go by howdi...
Hoovered up the 20s on Wishfull this morning. Even at 14s and 16s it's an each way no brainer. Fill your boots....tens by this time tomoz.
im a form man and id be surprised if SE or BZ didnt win it. unless alfie ferof turns up i love al 
I'd be surprised if one of the top three in the market didn't win, but they're plenty short for me, and as I can't seperate them I think Wishful Thinking and Gauvain are good odds for small stakes.
This isn't a race I'll be getting stuck into.
This isn't a race I'll be getting stuck into.
Think that's a mistake fella, the underround is potentially massive.
finians currently 6's,what price WT after Saturday if he beats him,and thats a fair chance imo
365 cut wishful from 20's - 14s now in the space of 15minutes
wishful good e.w bet, but i think sizing is the best 2miler around so hard not to be on him
Had a fill of WT at 20s not 16 minutes ago with 365 
i wudnt get carried away with WT, think he mite well run a place, but has very little chance with sizing, got around 40 lengths to make up,on sizings fav track and best time of year for him
SE is the best 2m around denman you're right,but things can happen.
I have WT at 20's,and will back SE at some point,i hope to have the winner if i do that.BZ will be a danger,dont fancy FR at all.
Nothing else will get close.
IMHO of course!!
I have WT at 20's,and will back SE at some point,i hope to have the winner if i do that.BZ will be a danger,dont fancy FR at all.
Nothing else will get close.
IMHO of course!!
I have backed FR at 6s today along with WT at 20s, will be leaving SE till nearer the day and if he is shorter than 6/4 i will be very disappointed! I cannot have BZ, dangerous to say i know but he is 11 now and although won lto easily enough, visually he didn't impress me as i think he ought to have! Of the others, well am on the fence, as i feel as we all do this race will cut up big time and the time is now to get them bets on me feels!
No offers that it is
WISHFUL THINKING probably advised price will be 20/1 of which anyone near the advised firms shops will and can get on for a period of 30 minutes prior to store opening so there be no moaning!
WISHFUL THINKING probably advised price will be 20/1 of which anyone near the advised firms shops will and can get on for a period of 30 minutes prior to store opening so there be no moaning!
ew 1/4 odds woloc its the final lineup that the bookies pay out on a/p also i've never known it be any different
Decalec I'm afraid you are simply wrong.
Look at oddschecker for example at the VC chase on Saturday. At the bottom each bookies AP terms for the race are listed and interestingly VC are 1/4 odds 1st 3 for their race. If you think for example that WT is going to pitch up for this race and you like the horse, 13/2 with them is top price and best terms. Terms will switch when a book changes to NRNB though with the above example as they are the sponsor they may be offering those terms, I haven't checked
Look at oddschecker for example at the VC chase on Saturday. At the bottom each bookies AP terms for the race are listed and interestingly VC are 1/4 odds 1st 3 for their race. If you think for example that WT is going to pitch up for this race and you like the horse, 13/2 with them is top price and best terms. Terms will switch when a book changes to NRNB though with the above example as they are the sponsor they may be offering those terms, I haven't checked
DECALEC, place terms for ap betting are set out in that particular races rules for each market/event all in run or not. Each firm is different in respect to whether they offer whatever place terms etc, e.g on Saturday in the VC chase there are more than 8 entered, some firms are offering the 1/5th 123 and others are offering 1/4 123. Obviously those firms offering the 1/4 have the better value. But come final decs stage, there may either only be 6 or 7 left in the field, or there maybe the dead 8 at final decs only for one to be pulled out as a non runner on the morning of the race! But those who backed ap before the final decs will sit pretty in the knowledge they will get paid out to 3rd at 1/4, those that waited till after final decs will not.
It is the same with all antepost e/way betting, i.e in handicaps where there is expected to be more than 16 runners the e/way terms will be 1/4 1234, quite often on the day of race there is only 14 or 15 taking part, those that partake in having a bet antepost (or before final decs) are safe in the knowledge that they will be paid out up to 4th place, those that waited i am afraid will not!
Each way betting antepost has its advantages! The value is out there, the hard part, is finding it!
I hope this clears things up some what for you!
It is the same with all antepost e/way betting, i.e in handicaps where there is expected to be more than 16 runners the e/way terms will be 1/4 1234, quite often on the day of race there is only 14 or 15 taking part, those that partake in having a bet antepost (or before final decs) are safe in the knowledge that they will be paid out up to 4th place, those that waited i am afraid will not!
Each way betting antepost has its advantages! The value is out there, the hard part, is finding it!
I hope this clears things up some what for you!
Not having read the Post this morning yet, I assume Tom has opted for Wishful Thinking, as is now only 12s. Correct???
Decalec, if you have been losing place terms on ante post bets I'm afraid you've been getting shafted by the bookies for some time
Tom was only ever going to select WT after Noble Prince & CC were taken out.
Getting quite easy to predict his slections isn;t it..
Getting quite easy to predict his slections isn;t it..
like oscars well. He is picking a horse whose form looks well short of the mark this season. Can't have either uncle Tom but I do respect him so will be watching with interest.
Agree Howdi, but this was a tough race for a "Pricewise" pick!
I wouldn't discount Big Zeb
To think this horse was once a bit of a rouge with his falls.
Picture of consistence these days.
To think this horse was once a bit of a rouge with his falls.
Picture of consistence these days.
agree it was the one horse if you look back at last year you could make a case for at the price.
yep,theres 4 horses realistically can win the race,the other 3 are too short for him.
Price wise so far Cheltenham 2012.
Captain Chris Gold Cup - all wins so far over 2m except 3 runner novice ch over 2.5 when a 2/5 chance. Gold Cup 3m2.5f?????
Oscars Well - Champ Hurdle - Never won a 2m race all wins on heavy?????
Wishfull Thinking - QM over 2m. Never won a 2m race even over hurdles?????
Lost the plot if you ask me.
Captain Chris Gold Cup - all wins so far over 2m except 3 runner novice ch over 2.5 when a 2/5 chance. Gold Cup 3m2.5f?????
Oscars Well - Champ Hurdle - Never won a 2m race all wins on heavy?????
Wishfull Thinking - QM over 2m. Never won a 2m race even over hurdles?????
Lost the plot if you ask me.
I personally cant have either of those points as negatives for OW though Shockster. Ran a blinder in the Neptune last year on what is likely to the be the same ground, so thats a non issue. Also showed bags of speed in that race and if anything didnt quite get home. The CH looks tailor made for him to me.
Cant have the other two personally.
Cant have the other two personally.
shockster Joined: 26 Oct 05
Replies: 202 17 Jan 12 13:28
Price wise so far Cheltenham 2012.
Captain Chris Gold Cup - all wins so far over 2m except 3 runner novice ch over 2.5 when a 2/5 chance. Gold Cup 3m2.5f?????
Oscars Well - Champ Hurdle - Never won a 2m race all wins on heavy?????
Wishfull Thinking - QM over 2m. Never won a 2m race even over hurdles?????
Lost the plot if you ask me.
couldn't agree more id confidently take evens all are unplaced
Replies: 202 17 Jan 12 13:28
Price wise so far Cheltenham 2012.
Captain Chris Gold Cup - all wins so far over 2m except 3 runner novice ch over 2.5 when a 2/5 chance. Gold Cup 3m2.5f?????
Oscars Well - Champ Hurdle - Never won a 2m race all wins on heavy?????
Wishfull Thinking - QM over 2m. Never won a 2m race even over hurdles?????
Lost the plot if you ask me.
couldn't agree more id confidently take evens all are unplaced
That's a brave bet Howdi. I agree they all look likle unlikely winners, but I can see WT being the 4th best horse in a very small field QMCC, so it wouldn't take much for him to place, and Captain Chris did just come 3rd in a King George....
WELLCHIEF thats never been the case its just always been of the assumption that it mattered how many went to post that decided the place terms including A/P now i know thats not the case and its just cause this thread highlights the possability of so few runners i cant remember this before.
The only time i bet A/P is the festival or GN
The only time i bet A/P is the festival or GN
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