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tyronesam
06 Jan 12 00:17
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Date Joined: 09 Jan 04
| Topic/replies: 883 | Blogger: tyronesam's blog
liked the way he won last time.....anyone any reason why not to back for rsa at 8s
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Report The Scobster January 6, 2012 10:50 PM GMT
None whatsoever now he's won well on better ground. This years RSA is looking very similar to last years with Grand Crus taking the Time For Rupert role. I always look for an experienced horse thats tough and 'battle hardened' for want of a better expression. Grand Crus is a talent but I reckon he's there to be shot at and Feltham winners has a shcking record in the RSA...I think of the last 17 winners of the Feltham, none have won the RSA.

PS - I havent ruled out First Leuitenant either !
Report wakey55 January 6, 2012 11:19 PM GMT
No couldn't put you off him. Mainly as it is looking likely that Grands Crus is gonna have a tilt at the big one which will open the Market up.

Think grands Crus is the one to beat.
Report VillaBoy January 7, 2012 8:07 AM GMT
I think First Lieutenant is massive value at 20/1. Conditions at Cheltenham are unique and nothing like what these horses experience throughout the season. The important thing is that he's been getting plenty of chase experience and we know he runs the track with a previous festival win on likely good ground. I expect Grands Crus to take his shot (correctly imo in a wide open year) at the Gold Cup and assuming that happens I can't see FL going off bigger than around 7/1 on the day.

Weapons Amnesty was very similar profile in showing massive improvement at Cheltenham after less than spectacular, but several prep runs in Ireland to gain experience.

My one slight worry is that it's the same ownership as Last Instalment (never run at Cheltenham) so would they run them in the same race? Different trainers so it's possible, but how can they not run First Lieutenant in the RSA Chase as a previous festival winner (he surely won't be stuck in the 4 mile NH Chase?)
Report brandyontherocks January 7, 2012 9:30 AM GMT
The owner would happily have more than one runner
Sure he did in the race last year
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2012 11:24 AM GMT
agree with villaboy on first liuet on all points and the trainer has said he would not put anyone oof backing this horses at 20s non runner no bet at lads ,already on !
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2012 11:57 AM GMT
sorry ignore that last post about first leiut   nrnb my mistake ....senialiality fast approaching!
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 7, 2012 1:32 PM GMT
i love last instalement but i read giginstown have said its likely they wont send him to chelt as hes a heavy topped horse who must have at least soft ground.

id love to see him at chelt if anyone knows differently?
Report rhinestone January 7, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
^ I think that was before he won on good ground over xmas.
Report Tory January 7, 2012 2:02 PM GMT
If he turns up then he's the one i'm thinking of at the moment. Having said that, I worked completely from stats last years and it chucked up Bostons Angel at 20/1 for me Wink
Report resner not lesnar January 7, 2012 5:32 PM GMT
I backed him after his last win as it seems my initial bet on Grands Crus is likely to prove fruitless. I thought the win on better ground would encourage an appearance at Cheltenham - I'm slightly concerned that they still seem reluctant to commit even since the last win.

I'm starting to think this race is turning into last years Ryanair for me I think I had 3 covered antepost and none made it!
Report Tatie Baron January 7, 2012 5:50 PM GMT
First Lieutenant for me too at the price. Don't think we'll see the best of him until Cheltenham, and his prep is the same as last year with him going straight there from Leopardstown at Christmas. Surely it is significant that Davy Russell has missed out on Bog Warrior and Last Instalment winning to stick with this guy.
Report Tatie Baron January 7, 2012 5:56 PM GMT
FOYLESWAR, Lads aren't nrnb on that race mate, just the four championship races.
Report Tatie Baron January 7, 2012 5:58 PM GMT
Woops! Just seen your correction, apologies.
Report FOYLESWAR January 7, 2012 7:01 PM GMT
tory first leuit fits a lot of the stats for the r.sa
Report shockster January 7, 2012 7:05 PM GMT
I think the Feltham form is the best on offer, however Last Installment looks a real good jumper which counts for a lot in the RSA.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat January 14, 2012 9:02 PM GMT
i think last instalement could be a gold cup winner next year if the ground ever turns up soft again at chelt...
Anyone know if gigi have an updated view on him travelling in march?
Report BJG February 12, 2012 2:51 PM GMT
Love goes to chelt acc to trainer on rte
Report shockster February 12, 2012 2:54 PM GMT
Has to be a major player. Much prefered to FL for the same owners. Always spot on at his fences.
Report sintonian February 12, 2012 3:01 PM GMT
What price you got Baz? 12/1 here posted on the NH thread Grin
Report sintonian February 12, 2012 3:02 PM GMT
I like the way he picked up after the last fence. It looked like Call The Police was going the better but LI found plenty.
Report strontium February 12, 2012 3:07 PM GMT
He won well. I disagree slightly about his jumping - he jumped out to the right at most of them. So much so he took out Lambro at the second last which may have made the race easier for him. However, he looks a super prospect.
Report shockster February 12, 2012 3:18 PM GMT
Accept he tended to go slightly right, but nothing too serious. Never seems to have to adjust at fences. Seems to hit them on a stride.
Report thieveslikeus February 12, 2012 3:21 PM GMT
Doesn't seem to touch a twig but gets from one side to the other very quickly.  Lots of ear pricking too, liking that.
Report dtamutants February 12, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
I agree Stront, I think the tendency to go right cost Jessies Dream last year, and I have the feeling that it could do for LI this year.

I'm not sure whether he'll be a lot shorter on the day either, especially as Grands Crus will probably get piled into. It's also a worry that GC, BW and FL have all won or run very well at the Festival, whereas LI has never seen the course. I'll definitely be looking to oppose GC though, and my main bet so far has been FL, but I might play LI on the day.
Report dtamutants February 12, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
I agree Stront, I think the tendency to go right cost Jessies Dream last year, and I have the feeling that it could do for LI this year.

I'm not sure whether he'll be a lot shorter on the day either, especially as Grands Crus will probably get piled into. It's also a worry that GC, BW and FL have all won or run very well at the Festival, whereas LI has never seen the course. I'll definitely be looking to oppose GC though, and my main bet so far has been FL, but I might play LI on the day.
Report dtamutants February 12, 2012 3:24 PM GMT
I agree Stront, I think the tendency to go right cost Jessies Dream last year, and I have the feeling that it could do for LI this year.

I'm not sure whether he'll be a lot shorter on the day either, especially as Grands Crus will probably get piled into. It's also a worry that GC, BW and FL have all won or run very well at the Festival, whereas LI has never seen the course. I'll definitely be looking to oppose GC though, and my main bet so far has been FL, but I might play LI on the day.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2012 3:25 PM GMT
Ive got First Lieutenant antepost,but if LI lines up on the day i will definitely be backing him as well.
Just hope Grand Crus stays in the RSA.
Report dtamutants February 12, 2012 3:26 PM GMT
oops sorry
Report sintonian February 12, 2012 3:31 PM GMT
Dont see why LI wont run. Giggintown Stud had two runners in the race last year I think or the year before.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2012 3:34 PM GMT
philipo Fenton has just said he goes to Cheltenham mate,but im not convinced he will get any shorter if Grand Crus runs.
Report strontium February 12, 2012 3:35 PM GMT
I think LI is very likley to run and to be Gigginstown's #1. I can't understand why FL is so close to him in the betting on all known chase form.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2012 3:35 PM GMT
Laugh
That would be Philips italian cousin
Report strontium February 12, 2012 3:36 PM GMT
Laugh
Report buddeliea February 12, 2012 3:36 PM GMT
Probably previous Cheltenham form mate plus Pricewise tipped him i think.
Report strontium February 12, 2012 3:38 PM GMT
I know he's been Pricewised, I don't really get why! I would have LI much shorter than FL at this stage.
Report buddeliea February 12, 2012 3:41 PM GMT
me too
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 3:42 PM GMT
Interesting that the horse started jumping right, that was his second run on better ground...have to like the way he knuckled down though...
Report thieveslikeus February 12, 2012 3:45 PM GMT
Haven't read seagull's reasoning for supporting FL but cannot understand it either stront.  Seems to be a general assumption that FL can beat LI up the hill on festival ground, even though LI slaughtered FL at Leopardstown on what was essentially typical Cheltenham ground and LI was certainly not coming back to FL day and finished with his ears pricked.

How it is still 8's with Ladstroke's I have no idea.  I guess all the shrewdies have had their stakes limited to £2 a horse?
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 4:18 PM GMT
What price do you think he should be thieves??? on the back of beating call the police who doesn't look a world beater and lambro who is hardly the most trust worthy individual...think he about right if they all turn up...

have to say I don't think the irish novices are a great bunch this year...
Report thieveslikeus February 12, 2012 4:24 PM GMT
Trip was on sharp side today harry, he's just the dour sort that wins the RSA so I'd say the shorter prices about him i.e. 5/1 are closer to the reality than 8/1.
Report Catch Me ifyoucan February 12, 2012 4:30 PM GMT
Grands Crus (11/4) , Bobs Worth (5) , Last Instalment (8) , First Lieutenant (9) , Join Together (10) , Bog Warrior (12) , Silviniaco Conti (12) , Sir Des Champs (12) , Lambro (25) , Berties Dream (33) , Call The Police (33) , Champion Court (33) , Mossley (33) , Ace High (40) , Walkon (40) , Allee Garde (50) , Cristal Bonus (50) , Invictus (50) , Mr Moonshine (50) , Soll (50)  - Others  50 or more
Report shockster February 12, 2012 4:36 PM GMT
Harry, if you don't like this years novices, what do you make of last years?
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 5:11 PM GMT
Thieves totally agree and he could do know more than win and I have to say I do like him...

But my reasoning for the price which I feel should be around 7's is the competition in the race...

For me the english novices look classier individuals, that isn't to say he cannot win - but is my reasoning for what I believe his price should be...

This looks as competitive as ever and thus should be priced up accordingly...he can still go well as he jumps lovely but whether he will be good enough against the english novices I have my doubts...I will say though he looks the ideal horse for the race with him having good experience under his belt and looks tough...cut in the ground will enhance his chances as not sure he will wants proper spring ground...or he will be able to perform to a higher level lets say...but also think grands crus wants some more dig to perform to his very best...

Shockster hope this answers your question to a point...last years were poor before lining up but this years look a far better crop...you have to remember wayward lad was a 15/2 chance going into the race, after winning average races...this showed what the english had to offer...I still think jessies would of won but for a better ride and not in lane 8...

This years are a stone better at least from this side of the water...and I expect one of them to win...
Report punchestown February 12, 2012 8:00 PM GMT
have to say I don't think the irish novices are a great bunch this year...

--------------
Those four Giggy horses for a start.

Last Instalment
First Lieutenant
Bog Warrior
Sir Des Champs.
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 8:04 PM GMT
Do you think they are better than the english ones then in comparison?? apart from bog warrior that is...
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle February 12, 2012 8:24 PM GMT
Grand Crus has done nothing to warrant his lofty reputation beat SC of PN and another PN hype horse. The above 2 he beat cant jump.

Sprinter Sacre is real deal I have no doubts about that!!!! but he is winning nothing races.

People love to crab Irish form saying small field nothing race exactly what all these England Novice Chasers are doing 4 field runner races full of nothingness where they make there own running and beat inferior rivals.

Some reputations will be destroyed at the Festival and Grand Crus is the one I am all over to get
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 8:54 PM GMT
If you read what I said I certainly wasn't crabbing the horses form...just his ability...but depends if you handicap horses yourself...

Ask yourself the question do you rate allee garde a top novice and how do you rate him...I think he is about a 142-145 horse tops...and first lieutenant certainly hasn't set me alight...

Ask yourself another one, how good do you think the 9 year old call the police is?? 147 career high and lambro how good do you think he is?? 142 best...

Listen you obviously think the Irish novices are better than I do...and that is what the forum is all about...

Last Installment certainly deserves respect as think he is a super jumper who finds which is what you want in an RSA winner but for me he still has plenty of improvement to find to be good enough to beat the english novices...he may well do..

Fair play on the grands crus lay but don't agree with your, warrant his reputation pun...champion court gives his form a decent look as does silviniaco conti and bobs worth...some reps will be destroyed and are every year... 

Don't know where sprinter comes into it as these are staying horses...
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 8:59 PM GMT
In fact I lye I suppose I was crabbing his form...
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 9:00 PM GMT
but wasn't crabbing the horse as do like him...
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle February 12, 2012 9:02 PM GMT
Fair enough Harry.

I think Sprinter Sacre is much a better bet than Grand Crus but if Bog Warrior shows up it be a great tussle between the 2 of them.

One Horse i can not make out is Bobs Worth...what has he done to warrant such a short price than a multiple Grade 1 Winner in Last Instalment seems a bit baffling tbh. His trainer obviously comes in to the price buts nearly 3 points shorter looks a tad bit stupid IMO. Its fascinating stuff really but I can not forget that Rupert horse last year who was doing what Grand Crus was doing and then ran woefully. Fair enough Different horses etc etc etc...but he is ludacris price considering how good of a renewal this is.
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 9:12 PM GMT
Thats fair comment pal...I'd say the reason Bobs Worth is the price he is is mostly on the back of the grands crus gold cup shannanigans...but will say kempton wasn't his bag and cheltenham will be, add to which he has had a breathing op since but agree he should be around the 6 mark...he is tough and likeable horse but until we know the full field its difficult to form a book...bog warrior looks a top prospect to me but think they should mind him for next year but he would be a fascinating runner if allowed to take his chance...looks a top prospect him...

The time for rupert comment is fair but he had had an interrupted prep and those that backed it into 7-4 were basing on his good form earlier in the season he didn't run his race for me but thats racing...
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle February 12, 2012 9:22 PM GMT
OH ITS RACINGLaughLaughLaugh

I think we should say that every year...its a nightmare at times.

One thing is for sure its going to be fantastic 4 days, really exciting Novices Chasers especially. With Racing legends every day and who knows with all the novice hurdler's bumpers etc.

Can't wait...may have to take a few days off work. First 2 days for me are always the best.
Report harry callaghan February 12, 2012 9:27 PM GMT
yes good racing indeed and lots of cash to be made we hopeGrin
Report yourbestmate February 12, 2012 10:04 PM GMT
May have to consider taking days off work?

Even entertaining working during these days any year is insane!!
Report strontium February 12, 2012 10:08 PM GMT
lol, what he said ^
Report rubyisgodinthesaddle February 12, 2012 10:11 PM GMT
Laugh
Report BJG February 15, 2012 4:12 PM GMT
Out of chelt

Picked up a injury wen winnin Sunday SadSad
Report OnTheSnaff February 15, 2012 4:22 PM GMT
ah ffs Sad
fancied him strongly,first of many to be ruled out though,sadly
Report Monte Christo February 15, 2012 4:25 PM GMT
Sadffs,

That's what i hate about this time before chelters.
Report strontium February 15, 2012 4:36 PM GMT
Shame.

Could have implicaations for Sir des Champs and Bog Warrior too.
Report jimnast February 15, 2012 4:50 PM GMT
no conserlation but long term it will do the horse more good than not,2014 grand national.
Report rhinestone February 15, 2012 4:50 PM GMT
sickening Sad
Report sintonian February 15, 2012 4:50 PM GMT
Painful Cry

Hope he is OK for next season.
Report TD_Gunner February 15, 2012 5:01 PM GMT
Gutted.

He was my nap of the meeting. Sad
Report thieveslikeus February 15, 2012 5:04 PM GMT
Well, that's me buggered before we even start.  Will take me more than my usual three minutes to get over this one, see you all in half an hourLaugh
Report FOYLESWAR February 15, 2012 5:14 PM GMT
bad luck all who backed the horse ! its a nervy time for all when you hear chappers and co saying .........got some bad news for cheltenham ....lets hope the horse comes through it o.k and is back next year !
Report buddeliea February 15, 2012 5:28 PM GMT
Thats real bad luck,he was a huge player,hope hes back soon.
Hes a big future,that exhibition of jumping last week was bl00dy impressive for a novice,in fact impressive full stop.
Report FOYLESWAR February 15, 2012 5:40 PM GMT
seems to happen a lot in the last few weeks to chelters every year ,last week jessies dream about 5 days after i backed it on here for a few sheckles !
Report Brian February 15, 2012 7:42 PM GMT
One of my few backs for the meeting so far. What a sickener.
Report tweedledumbtweedletwat February 15, 2012 8:25 PM GMT
he was my fav novice this season ,even tho i hadnt backed him for chelt.
I sincerly hope he recovers fully and wins the lexus,hennessy and chelt gold cup next season.
Report roobuck February 15, 2012 9:48 PM GMT
Yes a real shame

However as said a few times, as horses recover from their prep race or build up the intensity of their work before the big day, this will not be the last. Must be quite a stressful time for owners and trainers
Report thieveslikeus February 16, 2012 1:18 PM GMT
Quotes from the trainer saying just a "slight" injury, and won't run as a precaution, so should be fine for next year, which is good news. 

Makes it even more frustrating for those of us that backed him and the vet's bill for next door's cat makes the losses even worse.
Report strontium February 16, 2012 1:22 PM GMT
Isn't that what they said about Weapons Amnesty? I hope the horse comes back - he looks very promising - but a lot of them don't.
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