Gold Cup Ante-Post Book

this should be entitled 'hugh blows his own trumpet' thread

Howdi Howdi - £13 isn't much of a tune is it?

YET!

I can't understand why everyone doesn't have a bash at it...as the gas on the market could really be turned on months before the race itself.

Do you have a go?

It's not that difficult to get the initial investment back quickly, albeit in gradual amounts.

rarely have the time pal but sure i could.

treat the mrs with that 13 squid

I won't be seeing it until March but hopefully by then there'll be TWO zeros after the £13 - with no decimal point!

....in which case, get the Mrs to treat YOU, if she wants to see any of it.

or let roger treat her

stick it on oscar whiskey to win the world hurdle worst ket serious it hoses up ffs.

he knows

Wat horses are u big green on that u can green up on imo

BJG - all the principals at the head of the betting are the minimum greens at the moment (now £22)
and it's the outsiders and probable non-runners that are the £330 winners right now.

The fact that the majority will be NR's is neither here or there to me, as it's the trading possibilities that keep raising the minimum return - after all, there's only gonna be ONE winner isn't there?

no dead heat this year imo.

denman and kauto

imagine that

How much on average have you had to bet on every horse to get all green?

BBF - I've laid a few dozen horses for around £350 (for different amounts due to prices, £90 of which is on Long Run) and backed a few for around £20.

That means the ones I haven't even touched are +£330, and the minimum green on the short ones is up to £23 (Long Run) - it's not really a question of 'averages' as you've asked, and I'm sure many will be wondering how I'm £23 up on Long Run having laid him for around £90 at an average of about 3.7

Yer that makes sense to me. I've started something similar with the national and was wondering how much I was going to be laying out for initial stakes

BBF - I've sent you a PM squire.

I started having a go at this last year (still only playing at it). I'm still red on front 5 (max £10) and green the field (almost £400 on the long shots). Sorry no advice to give (only maybe be patient and lay at the right price not to lay just to even your book up). I thought I'd done well on last year Arc by having £110 minimum win but well done for getting it up to £650.

Hello Big U2 Fan - you're probably playing it the same way I am judging by your figures, and that patience is key to it all.

I can't believe I laid Don't Push It for 75 (in the closing hour of the ante-post market) when he won his National, thereby fcuking up a really big win!

In the Arc...horses like Snow Fairy & Vadamar were real friends for me as was Planteur who was always unlikely to run.

Those three regularly traded high and fluctuated quite a bit enabling me to ratchet up the tenners on each horse!

That's all you need...that little bit of good fortune so hold on to as many of those outsiders as you can, as lots will have trading potential.

At the risk of being a Money Tree, there are some that have been backed at silly prices as I see it, and have no chance whatsoever!

Baby Run backed at 65 defies belief, and I was happy enough to lay at 150 for £2, though in the main, I want to keep the outsiders running for me.

Very interesting Hugh - I've always been tempted to try this but must admit I don't know where to start really. Do you choose the ones you lay solely on opinion or is there a mathematical/logistical method to your decision making?

Hi Hugh - I normaly keep clear of posting on the forum because of all the negative people/comments but will keep an eye on this thread and will be interested to hear how you are getting on at regular stages.
I'm unsure what to do with Long Run at the moment I've layed it at prices between 3.3 and 3.55 and now out to 4.2 do you have similar dilemma?

^^^^ no lay it more

Hello again guys...Lay EVERYTHING that's short as none of them are value considering the race is months away.
Virtually ALL of them will trade much bigger at some point.

As for my view on the race...I think Long Run is home & hosed if he's in the same vein of form as last year, but that's not gonna prevent me from re-laying it, if it gets short enough and I decide to start laying en-masse again - though that's gonna require a cash injection again, or one of my huge outsiders to trade at a much shorter price.

The mathematics is not really something to be that concerned about as when you place your bets, the liability is shown, so you know where you stand.

Having an idea of the form (what ones have got realistic chances) is probably not as important as knowing the CALENDAR and running plans, as they're always backed in anticipation of a big run.

Do this properly, and it's difficult not to green-up - the point is...for how much?

Hi Hugh

Can I ask what your starting bank is per race.

Forty

Forty - hello squire...it's the only AP book I've got on at the moment and I'm needing a little win before starting on the National or other Festival races.

I started on the Gold Cup with about £150 but straight away, I had only a £40 liability.

After a few weeks it was green, but I can't really afford to LAY the shorter ones that are begging for it right now, as I'll need a win before injecting some more cash into the book.

As I'm sure you realise...the £23 green only allows me to back at the moment, and I've made a few balls-ups laying some at prices too big like Kauto Star for £3 at 80!

Hugh

I used to work from home and acted as bookmaker for Cheltenham mainly.  I agree you have to have patience and you also have to accept that every now and then you make a gaff.

I have changed the way I work now and spend little time at home hence I have stopped laying horses.  I feel that I need to spend additional time to do it justice.

Good luck with the venture.

Forty

Hugh

Not done much this week - have greened out on Long Run thanks to price going out to 4.3. Hoping price goes in to under 3.5 as I really want to be against it

Hi Hugh

I don't do the same as u, but attempt to cover as many i think will/could turn up at big prices (had a couple of quid on first lieutenant at 130/1 for neptune this year). i wont have all covered as wont lay etc and wont back anything under 10s at very lowest, though usually only back at 20s or 40s plus etc (e.g. wont back peddlers or sprinter sacre, but knowing that i wont have much in that race). and basically rely on my judgement during the season to pick at least 1 or 2 winners at nice prices during the season to cover my stakes (may lose a fair bit on one race, but a win like first lieutenants covers about 5/6 others, maybe more if some i havent played much in) went into the gold cup with all but imperial commander covered (had a saver king george and gold cup double at 66/1). so could be worth u looking at some of the bookmakers "specials" bets, as they can sometimes help to lay from a different perspective.

All the best!

Hello Paul...I haven't had an ante-post bet in the bookies since the year when Hardy Eustace won his first Champion Hurdle, and I backed him at 33/1!

Unfortunately, I backed him for the Stayers' Hurdle, and I hate not having an opportunity to trade.

It was only for £10 E/W but I was informed that was where he was heading at the time, and I swore I'd never do ante-post again!

My 'strategy' is to just lay ALL the short ones, even if I really think they'll win, like Long Run.
It seems they always (at some point) trade higher and then there aren't any worries about losing your cash if something gets an injury.
As a backer, you have months of concern about them picking up niggling injuries, or losing form and my way eliminates that.

We all have our own methods, but I can't understand why everyone isn't doing what I do as there is very little risk, and if an outsider pops up I'm rich!

I'd advise everyone to have a bash at the National, even if only starting around the Festival time, as liquidity on the race is very healthy in the preceding three weeks, and there's some fantastic value around.

All of a sudden my book is looking very good
Long Run + £45
Kauto Star + £41
Grand Cru + £40
Synchronised + £8
Captain Chris + £11
Weird Al + £40
Time For Rupert + £43
+ £20 min on the field. + £853 on the no hopers

Big U2 Fan - my book has stagnated recently as I haven't been able to re-inject more cash into the book, to enhance trading opportunities.

Any decent wins I've had recently have been gobbled up by life's expenses, so I'm still just £25 minimum for the winner.
All the rags are around £400 but there seems little chance of any of them trading short.

I'm very disappointed with the lack of any real movement over the months and it's been nowhere near as 'mercurial' as the Arc market, which was far more exciting and profitable.

Nevertheless, I'm still green and the daily checks on the tradings have kept an interest in the race - there's still a chance that the supplementary entry stage could do me some massive favours as a declaration would guarantee some prices plummeting.

There doesn't look to be much chance of Somersby running now, which is one I wanted to keep onside (five figure win) because Knight has been of the belief he needs a trip - other huge winners for me are Planet Of Sound, Wayward prince, Mikael d'Haguenet, 1833, Riverside Theatre & Chicago Grey, though all are unlikely to run...it's not worth trying to grease a few extra quid from laying them, as a change of running plans will mean a significant boost to the minimum green.

All those big possible winners mentioned have only cost me about £20 in reality, as they've all been laid much shorter.
In effect, they've been mistakes, as I've gambled on their participation.

You live & learn with (primarily) a layers' book and I remember turning down the 400 available for Danedream (even for a couple of quid) AFTER she bolted up in her Arc prep

I can't wait until May and for the Classic winners to be trading at single figures in the Arc market - idiotic bets like Carlton House after the Dante being backed at around 7 with well over four months to go!

Let's hope Betfair's plans to scupper trading for the paupers like me, gets a hoof in the balls!

Hugh - If I can get my winnings up to £100 I'll be more than happy. Tried to do the same on Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and World Hurdle but will be lucky to get all green. Agree with last years Arc we (you and me) need more races like that.
So far:
Long Run + £62
Kauto Star + £67
Grand Cru + £60

For anyone that's interested, I've updated my situation (below) on The Gold Cup book, and as I've mentioned a few times, there hasn't really been much movement over the months, so my profit isn't gonna be anywhere near what I thought it could be

The Kauto Star scare several days ago did at least inject some excitement into the market, and I capitalised by laying some of my bigger potential winners at much shorter than they really should have been, and then backed them again at bigger odds.

I was a minimum of £66 profit BEFORE Kauto Star's big drift, and since then, although my book's a bit lop-sided (Kauto Star only wins me a tenner, but he MUST drift again) I'm in a much better position.

I thought the 6/4 Long Run was madness, as even if Kauto Star was withdrawn, he couldn't really go THAT much shorter.
Similarly, with the injury scares, it's bananas that some were still backing KS at 4/1 on here, as I cannot see him being shorter on the day!

The participation of some chasers is crucial to my book as I've kept hold of the £4K on Time For Rupert, hoping to lay him for around £70 at 50/1, meaning that a minimum profit would rise from say £66, to £136 in one trade!

I don't hold out any pretensions of him winning, but I think he's sure to run if fit & well, which will see his odds drop significantly.

I've regularly mentioned my disappointment at such a scenario not happening on The Gold Cup market, as it occurred numerous times on my Arc book.

I hope for any others trying this out it has been a success, though I suspect many of you will be holding a few 'hot potatoes'