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Cheltenham Festival

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These 200 comments are related to the topic:
Who wins the Queen Mother?

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Replies: 200
By:
shockster
When: 12 Jan 12 15:57
Apart from the odd exception The Ryanair is the race where owners/trainers go when they know they can't win either QM or GC.  They use the excuse of not enough speed or doesn't stay, but usually not always these horses are just below top class.  People may argue but I'd bring back the Cathcart and force Owners/trainers hands.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Jan 12 15:59
Well he did win the Arkle while WT was running 2nd in the Jewson,so you may be right,but i have a feeling that they now rate WT as the best at 2m.
Or is it that they are really hoping for a Gold Cup horse?? Need to be careful if thats the case,could end up with big regrets for his future.
Ive always had the opinion that a horse should run in the race that best suits,but then ive never owned 2 horses like them.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Jan 12 16:01
any breeding boffs on here ? regarding capt chris by kings theartre - function dream (strong gale ) ?
By:
strontium
When: 12 Jan 12 16:01
The Cathcart had rather silly conditions though.

From a racing point of view I likle the Ryaniar. It's always a competetive race with lots of good horses. The recent winners (Albertas, Imperial) wouldn't look out of place was winners of the GC or Champion Chase, and the Ryanair tends to have more strength in depth. At this Festival it's one of the races I'm most looking forward to.

It's just a pain from the antepost betting point of view!
By:
shockster
When: 12 Jan 12 16:07
You're right Stront, I am speaking from an Ante Post of view, but I did like the Cathcart.  I honestly believe though it does weaken both the QM and GC.
By:
strontium
When: 12 Jan 12 16:14
That's a fair point Shock. Personally, I like having the third championship race. I also think the Gold Cup is holding its own. Maybe that's because we've been lucky having the Kauto/Denman era overlap with the lifetime of the Ryanair and things could change in future.

However, one could make a good case that the Ryanair is weakening the Champion Chase and that should be guarded against. Whether that needs a change in race conditions for the Ryanair, or a bigger prize money differential, I'm not sure.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Jan 12 16:18
less runners maybe,but the top 2 milers will always run in the QM,quality will still be there.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 12 Jan 12 17:11
Ive always had the opinion that a horse should run in the race that best suits,but then ive never owned 2 horses like them.

Exactly right. Me neither.

I suppose I would struggle to run the 2 against each other, but I'd certainly run the best of the two in the race that suited them both, ie in this case Captain Chris. I think its more down to the owners than Hobbs as well. He was quoted before the Haldon saying I hope we see him in the QM.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Jan 12 17:45
Not been funny like but i've been saying for the last 9 months Captain Chris is a stayer. He has no turn of foot. He won the Arkle because FR pinged from fence to fence and set the race up for him. He just stayed on up the hill.
By:
buddeliea
When: 12 Jan 12 18:01
i think hes inbetween the 2, QM and GC,so if i wanted to run him at the very top it would be the QM,cos i dont think he will stay 3m2f.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 12 Jan 12 18:45
Well looking at the entries, it doesn't really look exciting at all.
Except for sizing europe there doesn't look much in the race
When I first read mr nicholls was sending al ferof to the victor chandler I thought it was a good move, as in it could be a great trial for the arkle. Instead of running him in a small field novice chase where he would just stroll round, he would get a race run at a true pace and give him more match practise.  BUT now looking at these entries he must be really tempted to have a pop at the big one, surely......

Can not believe Captain Chris has not had an entry
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Jan 12 19:55
after watching his arkle win sintonian sevral times sintonian i agree with you 3 out he was beggining to get pushed along as the pace quickened and a good few going better at that point but he stayed on strongly all the way to the line   and he looks to me as though he will be suited by a trip ,may be wrong but it seems hobbs is happy to go that way we will know more after his next race .
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 12 Jan 12 20:03
Any horse than has the pace to win an Arkle can win a QM for me Sint. The QM is as likely to be set up for him as that race was imo....
By:
R Carver
When: 12 Jan 12 20:10
I certainly think Captain Chris wants a trip - Hobbs won the QMCC with the slow, staying Flagship, so he knows how to win the race. To my eye, Captain Chris is a not going to beat the crack 2 milers, even if this yr's renewal is not the best ever (though its not the worst ever).

Most worrying for me is his tendency to hang right and / or his preference to go right handed. He hung in his novice at Cheltenham 2 yrs ago (on his preferred decent ground), he was beaten at Chepstow, Newbury and Cheltenham last yr (admittedly, I think, before the wind op) and at Kempton when beating Adams Island I thought he jumped slightly right. I also thought he jumped right in the Arkle and hung a little. He outstayed the free-going Finians. I think he is a top horse with a fine engine, and he has clearly won at Cheltenham, but its just in my mind that he's better going right.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 12 Jan 12 20:25
Fair play RC, I'd never even considered it. Anyway, suppose there isnt much point debating it now. I'm only annoyed as I've done my dosh! I'd back him in the Ryanair though, but definitely not in the GC.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Jan 12 20:26
r.carver just watched the arkle again he did hang slightly right although to be fair he was widest of all ,wonder if that was the plan to give him a good sight of his fences ,
By:
R Carver
When: 12 Jan 12 23:23
I agree CCM, I do not think the Ryanair would be a problem, that trip seems ok in my mind, but I would have reservations about the G Cup.

I am probably reading something into nothing regarding the right-hanging - I could not have him on my mind for the Arkle after the Kempton run, and down the back I felt quite content, but I was obviously very wrong at the finish!!
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Jan 12 09:09
I dont really see the problem with this years entries tbh. BZ & SE are both top class two milers who both have excellent course form. We then have last years Arkle form represented with FR and then another novice in the shape of WT who is not exactly a back number.

It may not be a vintage renewal but there has certainly been worse. Master Mindeds 2nd QMCC victory was rank average with the likes of Petit Robin and an ageing withering Voy Por.
By:
buddeliea
When: 13 Jan 12 12:05
his 1st werent much better!!

Agree,think it will be a good race with 2 of the best 2 milers ive ever seen.Plus a few young up and comers.
By:
wellchief
When: 13 Jan 12 17:24
Agree, re quality of Master Minded's first QMCC, but I've never seen a round of jumping like that ever, and I doubt I ever will again (although that was my first ever Chelt, so may be biased)

Dissapointed that Flat Out isn't entered this year in the Ryaniar or the QMCC.  I'm glad Mullins has left him out if he doesn't think he's ready, at least I know were I stand now.

Big Zeb vs Sizing Europe in the Tied Cottage will be interesting, but that form was well and truly reversed last year, so it may not tell us that much if Big Zeb wins (If BZ wins it really boosts Noble Prince's form in the Ryanair, running over a trip that is too short).

I think the market has got it pretty spot on.  SE and BZ deserve to be at the head of the market, followed by Finians. 

This time last year Master Minded was 9/4 and Big Zeb was 7/2, not sure what price Sizing Europe was.  Also, this time last year Spbet did a bet Master Minded and Big Zeb (Coupled)@ 4/5 vs the Field @ Evs.  for this year, if it was SE and BZ (Coupled) vs The Field, I'd definitiely be on the former.

Oh...and to answer the original question, who wins the queen mother, the answer is, I don't knowConfused
By:
sintonian
When: 13 Jan 12 20:34
Noble Prince's form has already taken a huge boost this season when Osirixamix what an unlucky loser of a Grade 2. He was set to give Golden Silver a 5 length pounding but for falling at the last. Noble Prince smashed him 11 lengths prior. Really hope NP makes it to the festival.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 14 Jan 12 11:26
Cannot I'm afraid agree with you on the Osirixamix form line Sint...

Osirixamix who has never gone well fresh in the past and should not be taken as a view to Noble Princes form imo

Golden Silver prior to leaving had looked in poor form and was in the process of running like a drain against Osirixamix... he has just won a handicap off of 113...I agree he is improving but lets not give Noble Prince the credit please...not on the back of a horse who was just out for a run on his seasonal reappearance anyway...

For what it is worth in a weak year I wish they had let had let him take his chance in the Champ Chase as he definitely doesn't lack gears and the better ground will suit him more...very surprised they pulled the plug on the Champ Chase...

Personally I am not a fan of his form however and I will have to eat humble pie if he pulls a victory off at Cheltenham but still feel he won't win and is a poor favorite for the Ryannair...just an opinion and am trying everything in my powers to find the winner of the ryannair on the back of him eating a nice slice of the market...

but if you like him the best of luck...he must of done you a favour at the festival last year...
By:
CVByrne
When: 14 Jan 12 18:49
Well who will turn up?

Sizing, Zeb, Finians, probably Forpady, Gauvain and Wishfull possibly but both better over further , that's it

The winner will be from the first 4 mentioned there and forpady is mega value at 50/1, I've had me some win pl on here at 61/15

Zeb e/w looks solid gold givenhe's never out of the first 2
By:
shockster
When: 14 Jan 12 19:25
CVB - Cant see Forpady winning but place is def possible and have just taken 12.5 which is fair and as you say very few runners expected.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jan 12 19:29
Was thinking about FPD aswell .. former Arkle winner and all that .. he is still entered for the VC chase next weekend
By:
shockster
When: 14 Jan 12 19:35
FPD - No wins since Arkle 09, however 11 runs since and only once out of the first 3(some small fields) and that was when tried in the King George. Usually not beaten that far.
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jan 12 19:37
Yeah it still requires a leap of faith but can see why he is attractive at the odds, given we might not have 8 runners and 3 places on the day ..
By:
sintonian
When: 14 Jan 12 19:41
I've no idea what WT's best trip is tbh. I took a chance on him for this race at 33/1 after his PP run where he showed tons of speed. His last run in the Desert Orchid was just a try-out with new hold-up tactics to see if they worked, and they did really, it was just a shame he made a bad mistake.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 14 Jan 12 19:47
thats a fair call c.v byrne a small field likely and although he findsit hard to get his head in front he is nothing if not consistent,
By:
CVByrne
When: 14 Jan 12 20:13
I have read that Guavain would be "run off his feet" in this if he ran, Ryanair is the rae for him

That leaves Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Forpady and Wishfull

I've bet on all five as view it as a very good trading op at the very least when the rest end up in Arkle and Ryanair

Also think forpady is serious value at 14/1 for sat, intended runner last i read
By:
strontium
When: 14 Jan 12 21:21
Think Forpady is more likely to run in the Ryanair. That's what the trainer's said and what I've been told but then they often change their minds and he keeps running around 2 m. But surely he doesn't have the pace to win a Champion Chase?

A few 2 m handicappers will show up for the QM rather than the Grand Annual, but they won't win and who knows which ones anyway.

Sizing, Zeb, Finians, Gauvain and Wishfull look the "core" of the field to me, though the last 2 could both go Ryanair. Nacarat may run in this as not entered elsewhere yet, but might be on a mark to go for the Will Hill now? Ghizao also likey to run here I think.
By:
strontium
When: 14 Jan 12 21:45
By the way, it's good to see you back CVB. I've missed your insight and your input. Hope you're sticking around till the Festival.
By:
windsor knot
When: 14 Jan 12 22:12
kauto stone
By:
CVByrne
When: 14 Jan 12 22:21
Thanks strontium

'm away travelling the world on my winnings from the past 4 years, been away over 6 months now, I return 2 weeks before the festival

I'm in Peru at the moment having a rest day that's why I'm doing my homework on the festival

Hopefully I'll write a good preview or two next month, need to mull plenty over and see a few more horses run
By:
strontium
When: 14 Jan 12 22:33
Oh well, enjoy yourself, it sounds great.

I'll look forward to reading your stuff as you get round to it - all the best!
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Jan 12 08:30
Just taken a bit of win and place Nacarat on here-80 and 16.
If he does run he could be interesting at those odds imo.
By:
sintonian
When: 15 Jan 12 09:34
I cant see WT going for the Ryanair now they have taken out Captain Chris.
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Jan 12 10:04
i would say WT is as near definite as can be at this stage,and i think he is in with a chance,this imo is his ideal race.He will have trouble beating the front 2 for sure,but well worth his place in the race.
By:
strontium
When: 15 Jan 12 12:24
Budd, I agree Nacarat is a fascinating entry. He's short of top class at 3 m but he does like to tank along in the early part of his races.
I just wonder if he'll be aimed at the Will Hill handicap though? His mark has slipped to 154. In the past he's come 3rd in the RP chase off 156,  2nd off 158 and 1st off 147, so he could be competetive. That said, he might be a stone better at Kempton than anywhere else and he's never completed a race of any kind of Cheltenham and never run at the Festival - so he might get battered whatever he does!
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Jan 12 15:30
would not argue with any of that Stront.
Just have a feeling they may go for it,and with not many runners likely,he could sneak a place,and maybe do a one man!!
Pretty unlikely but not big wagers,and if he does run i may have some fun watching the race.
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