The BEST HORSE race (you saw run) this weekend was

Cyrname

Just watched Outlaws races, first race, not seen a dodgy jumper like that sine the Albanian refugee boat landed!!! Looked very good after

EPATANTE...worth a mention (Exeter today)

MIDNIGHT RUN....in the bumper in Naas

Previous Winners of the race were...
2018 Carefully Selected (his full-brother) (WP Mullins)
2017 Monbeg Worldwide (Elliott)
2016 Avenir D'Une Vie (WPM)
2015 Tycoon Prince (Elliott)
2014 Killultagh Vic (WPM)

unclepuncle • March 12, 2019 1:40 PM GMT
unclepuncle 08 Jan 19 12:39
If Itchy Feet even gets placed in the Supreme I will never post on here again, and unliket that ****  I123 I will be a man of my word Keep you fingers crossed lads.

Been nice knowing you all but it's a permanent goodbye from me.

Feb 9, 2019 -- 11:50AM, Makybe_Diva wrote:

Band Of Outlaws

Well done, Band of Outlaws

What impressed in the last few days ?


BJG's ride on Sire Du Berlais.

What impressed in the last few days ?

Time flies by for JP Nicky & Barry

Overthetop, Very taking performance & looks built for chasing when the time comes, Until then I'll follow him with interest.

Full brother to Howard Johnson’s On Raglan Road 2003

Worked with someone who rode at JHJ for years, Even rode in a few races for him, He had some great stories.

FYI
BLACK OP (second to Samcro in the 2018 Ballymore, and then won the Aintree version afterwards) won his Beginners Chase today in Stratford (aftertime I know, SP 5/2 Tom George  J Burke for Mr R S Brookhouse.....made all, clear before last, readily).

Envoi Allen.

Vinndication

Hanx • November 4, 2019 8:35 AM GMT
Vinndication

Would rather own the 4th On The Blind Side

SPORTING JOHN - made a stylish debut under Rules as he swoops late to score under Barry Geraghty for PJ Hobbs at Exeter
https://twitter.com/i/status/1191715268621418501

Andy Dufresne - will be Irish banker material in the Ballymore imo.

Abacadabras good too in Navan...…. (now waiting for Colreevy entry)

Probably not the best one but Edwardstone at Wincanton could be a lot better than his initial RPR of 131. If he runs in the EBF final off anything around 130-135 he will be very interesting. He could even make a Festival novice hurdle.

Abacadabras good too in Navan...…. (now waiting for Colreevy entry)

Thought this would have got close to Envoi Allen in the Bumper at the Leopardstown Festival in February, when it ran out close to the finish. Very decent tool. I'm on for the Supreme at 32/1

ALLMANKIND on Trial...
A 11/4 Triumph makes all, very keen but found plenty up the hill, to win JCB Triumph Hdl Trial for the Skeltons in the well known Bill Gredley family colours. (A 37L easy winner in Warwick last Friday)
"He's keen here but a lot worse at home. There was a point when they thought he was not far off Derby standard as a 2yo. He's not fragile but he is bull headed. We'll treat him with the respect he deserves. Aim to come back here in March (20/1)."
An 'emphatic' winner from Gary Moore’s Botox Has ?

Gonna have 1  more run before the festival
Presumably Kempton

That a lot of BALLS

Pocket talk:

I was quietly impressed with Saldier yesterday. Given Ruby's comments I had played on him for the CH, but thought he would possibly get turned over yesterday.

Less impressed with Klassical Dream, who may indeed come on for the run and be better with a stronger pace, but Petit Mouchoir finishing in front of him was more if an issue for me, than being beat by Saldier.

I suppose Defi du Seuil was the best but he was getting weight from Politologue who made a fight of it. I am still amazed to see that Ballyoisin is not listed in the Champion Chase or Ryanair markets for March despite being the joint top rated chaser of the 2019/20 season so far! I would be on like a shot for both races at 16/1 or so.

allmankind for me had astab at 20/1 antepost on the back of it

Sageform ... you can back him at 25s any race with wh.

By far wasn’t the best horse I saw at the weekend, but the one I took out of Wholestone’s race was Rockpoint. Given the way he was finishing, he was screaming out ‘4 miler’ to me (even though the NH is not 4m anymore). He qualifies under the new rules, given his rating and finishing 2nd in a Chase over 3m.

40/1 allows for a large return for a small outlay.

PUT THE KETTLE ON..... (b f 10th Mar 2014) One For Luck RC, Henry. (Arkle 20's - likeable sort, but no chance - a few yards haven't played their hands yet incl Hendo)

Good point Dontbe. Colin Tizzard has a very good record with slow maturing horses for this owner. Thistlecrack and West Approach being the obvious ones.

Sageform - just checking you saw my post 21.37 yesterday

Yes thanks, I don't have a WH account at the moment. I used to when I was on course 2 or 3 times a week but only bet exchanges now. If he is not available on here soon I might open an online account.

Indeed Sage, Tizzard did target Native River at this one as well, but for the good’ish ground which suited the winner, he probably would’ve won.

His hurdles form is questionable, but he did win a 3m G2 Hurdle at Cheltenham last year.

Knowing Tizzard he’ll probably target it at the Arkle now! See Finian’s Oscar for previous with bizarre placement of novice chasers!

By far wasn’t the best horse I saw at the weekend, but the one I took out of Wholestone’s race was Rockpoint. Given the way he was finishing, he was screaming out ‘4 miler’ to me (even though the NH is not 4m anymore). He qualifies under the new rules, given his rating and finishing 2nd in a Chase over 3m.

40/1 allows for a large return for a small outlay.

Yeah, he reprised to the letter his run behind Mulcahys Hill at The Showcase Meeting, at which point I sadd 'NH Chase!' to myself. Saturdays run confirmed things so I've had a dabble at 40's.

Course, he could be one of those horses that flatters to decieve, forever running on late no matter what the distance, but you'd have to think it would be NH Chase or nothing at The Fez and at the odds it's worth finding out.

Like someone has posted elsewhere, it's Tizzard we're talking about, so Champion Hurdle can't be ruled out!

Apart from the obvious, the one I took out of Saturday was Crievehill. He may be a bit hard to place but could he be a National horse?

Tomorrow will bring more clues but from the last 2 days, Champ, Danny Whizzbang and Reserve Tank are still contenders for the RSA while Epatante is on any short list for the mares hurdle. I don't think that Cornerstone is worth a bet in the CH

I think Champs race will prove to be a good one.

epatante was seriously impressive

Just hearing Nicky saying Epatante is a 2 miler so hold your bets. With Buveur D'air under a big cloud, the Champion Hurdle seems in Willie Mullins' hands unless a new contender emerges.

Unoriginal, but Envoi there, just blew them away. Wherever he ends up Supreme or Ballymore, he is going to be tough to beat. His hurdling was near flawless, bar the last, and even then it didn't stop his momentum.

Who impressed you the most on Super Sunday

Envoi Allen - Royal Bond, Supreme winner in waiting ? 

Fakir D’Oudairies first 4yo to win the Drinmore ! 

Honeysuckle - welcome new 'Queen' of racing ?

Samcro impressed me, notwithstanding the obvious.

All three very impressive but time will tell how good they are.

Samcro lost ground at every fence and that, plus the fact he came back on the bridle and was upside Fakir when unseating screams'3 miler' to me. On TV - admittedly not the best medium - he looks an absolute giant too.

I think Fakir would still have won - his jumping is a potent weapon and on that basis alone I'd be gunning for the Arkle with him.

Honeysuckle was magnificent but Envoi Allen was the most impressive winner for me. I thought Abacadabras was coming to do him, but he just found another gear and pulled away again. From a pocket perspective I'm on Abacadabras for the Supreme but on todays evidence Envoi Allen will have the beating of him if they both show up in the Festial opener.

DARVER STAR
(3rd today @20/1, only 1½L Envoi (Davy) and 2½L Abacadabras (Jack Kennedy) - ridden by Jonathon Moore, ran absolute stormer to finish just 4L back in Grade 1 Royal Bond - maybe not the 'best horse', but an eye catcher all the same - Owner SSP Number Twentytwo Syndicate / Trainer Gavin Cromwell.

“That’s a relief but they are two very good horses. We like Abacadabras a lot and we think Envoi Allen is the real thing," said Elliott - Champion Hurdle Poor Paddy 8/1 (from 12/1).


FORM...
Wexford Fri, 5th Apr, 2019 (1st) 2m4f..."over two miles was just too sharp for him.....he'll jump a fence in time".
Downpatrick Sun, 11th Aug, 2019 (1st) 2m3f...a break freshened him up... he did relish that ground (G/Y) and might benefit from going further too.
After Killarney Wed, 21st Aug, 2019 (1st) 2m1f... "I can't wait until he jumps a fence, he'll be a lovely horse over fences and please god he stays right and he'll go chasing shortly. He doesn't want knee-deep ground and doesn't want it too soft but will race away for the winter.
At Listowel Wed, 11th Sep, 2019 (1st) 2m4f... "When he jumps a fence he might improve again, and there is a good chance he could go chasing this season".
After Limerick Sun, 13th Oct, 2019 (1st) 2m5f... He could go up to three miles but could also go back in trip as well. You'd have to stick to the novice route for the moment the way he is going.

unclepuncle 25 Nov 18 19:36

Another I put in the notebook a couple if weeks back was Honeysuckle, trained by Henry De Bromhead. Won on her rules debut in superb fashion and could take high rank in the mares races over the next few seasons.

I know the arkle is going to be by far the majority call for FD. But I am not sure it makes sense if jumping is his key weapon and he stays the jlt trip which I am convinced he does. If you make ground on all your rivals at every fence and you stay doesn’t it make pragmatic sense to run in the race with more fences?

I understand completely the pace angle but I cannot believe he wouldn’t have put just about every novice chaser to the sword at the pace he was going today. I don’t think he needs to go any faster to cement his advantage.

IMO you want to be targeting the Arkle precisely because it puts maximum pressure on the others jumping.

The net gain for Fakir would be greater as the ground lost by others at the speed test would be greater than running over the longer trip even allowing for more fences because they would be going slower and not pressing the jumping so much.

Duffy Yes I understand that’s what I mean by understanding the pace angle but I am far from convinced by the argument that the advantage per fence will go up enough in the arkle to exceed the advantage of almost a third more fences. In other words the advantage per fence would have to increase by almost a third to justify running in the arkle. Dubious to say the least imo.

Hoss needs geniue SOFT ground
He maybe lucky if the Arkle is on
really slow ground

....which it's more likely to be on day one

I don't accept the number of fences argument. It is jumping at speed that caught out Samcro and benefitted FD. You can lose a bit of ground in a longer chase and get away with it but not over 2 miles, especially in the Arkle or Champion Chase, the two fastest run races of the season in most years.

sage Your post has confused me. On one hand you state that jumping at speed caught Samcro out and gave FD his advantage and on the other say the longer the race the less impact there is on losing ground over fences. Yesterday’s race was over the JlT trip not the arkle trip and so obviously wasn’t long enough to help,Samcro and the others and presumably the pace was already quick enough for his jumping to hurt them to the point of no return.

Again I get the pace angle. Let’s do the maths. The jlt is run over 17 fences and the arkle over 14. Let’s say Samcro and FD are running in an hypothetical JLT and let’s say FD is gaining an average of 2 meters per fence. That is a total of 34 metres over the course of the race. In order to gain an even bigger advantage over the arkle trip and 14 fences the advantage per fence would have to increase to over 2.4 metres per fence. That is a significant increase and not one I would be confident would be realised.  Let’s say I am a connection of the horse and I believe the horse stays the jlt trip (which I personally am convinced he does) and let’s say I trust him to jump as well again in the JLT ... I have just seen for myself what that does to my horses opponents. Now I am faced with a decision to abandon what I have just seen and trust on the assumption that if I reduce the number of fences increase the pace I will get a much bigger gain per fence and be better off. Yes it is possible but to me an unnecessary risk.

Hey I am the minority here RW was emphatic about the arkle and the markets agree.

I see FD putting the kind of performance in the JLT as uxizandre did in the Ryanair. Interestingly when they dropped Uxizandre in trip next time his own jumping went.

I don't think you can look at it in a black and white fashion, I don't think it's linear, the pressure on another horses jumping increases the shorter the trip and one mistake is compounded by another and over 2 miles the race is over, I think mistakes over further, although important, don't have the premium on them as ones at a shorter trip do, a mistake at pace accentuates the cost of the mistake. At the longer trip, going a stride slower also helps the other horses to jump better in the first place.

Ok it has absolutely nothing to do with linear or black and white or anything. It is actually very simple. Many people have spoken about him gaining ground with his jumping. Gaining ground is obviously a real and tangible distance of ground .... this may be a length length and a half or whatever. For the arkle to be the right race solely on jumping it simply means he will gain more ground through the entire race through his jumping than he would in a JLT. Because there are more fences in a JLT then for the arkle to be the right race he will have to gain significantly more ground per fence than in aJLT. That is not linear or black and white it is Just very elementary Janet and John level maths.

Obviously Duffy you think he will gain significantly more ground per fence in an arkle and I am very dubious. For the millionth time I accept the pace angle and while I can see it increasing his jumping superiority I am very dubious as to whether it will increase it enough to counter less fences that’s all. He showed yesterday that he is capable of making very significant gains on his rivals through his jumping in a 20f race. Gaining more than that with less fences in an arkle is certainly not a given and imo deserves serious consideration.

Everybody was screaming for uxizandre to run over 2 miles after his Ryanair win. They all said the same thing. His jumping will destroy horses over 2 miles. Well his jumping had already just destroyed the Ryanair field. They tried it once he jumped badly and I may be wrong but I don’t think he ever  ran over 2 miles again and from memory I think they actually stepped him up to 3 miles.

I am now off to stick my head in the oven

I just checked . Yes they did run him one more time over 2m 1f.   He unseated

I can see both sides but the Arkle is a unique race when jumping seems to play a bigger part than in most races. The first run of fences are usually OK but the ones after the home bend are the ones that often decide the result. If I owned Fakir I would run in the Arkle as I doubt if many opponents will match his speed over fences so they will be under pressure to catch him and make mistakes. If I owned Samcro I would run in the Stayers Hurdle.

Quote from trainer today’s rp app. As far as Cheltenham’s concerned we’ll keep our options open as long as possible. It’ll probably be the arkle or the jlt, but it’s still a long way off and I’d imagine it’ll be a late call.

My guess it could come down to the weather and possibly the opposition. Personally think more the weather as he clearly needs soft in the description and preferably no good at all.

Btw as an aside no 5 year old has won the jlt.... not sure how many have run in it ? and not many have won the arkle. In last 3 decades only Voy por, well chief and flagship Uber. Two champion chase winners and one runner up. If these things matter to you (personally not so much) It could be an indication of how good he may have to be to win either.

and since those 3 won, the 5yo weight allowance has changed. The logic was that early maturing French breds had an unfair advantage.

If the ground is important to them they are much more inclined to run on Tuesday than Thursday also.

I wonder if connections would look at the state of the race and the ease that Samcro was travelling at his point of departure and consider whether they'd fancy taking him on again in a JlT, as although he ultimately fell, the pressure put on him in that race through FD jumping hadn't apparently got him off the bridal. They may then consider that if the race had been shorter and they asked FD to go a stride quicker, the 2 lengths lost at each fence may have been more with more pressure put upon the weak part of Samcro's game. IMO, we were deprived the sight of Samcro ultimately going on to win impressively, and if that was right, with the stellar way that FD had gone through the race then that would be a concern for that horse.

Anyway, I think Samcro will win the JLT and think he'll be a 6/4 shot on the day to do so.

Perhaps Duffy. Personally I am firmly with irishone on this one in all aspects. I think if Samcro jumps like that in a championship race he will have top quality horses all around him and very soon will just get shuffled back and race over. It’s one thing to make mistakes when others aren’t pressuring you to your side and immediately behind you and another thing entirely in a deeper race. I also feel it is next to impossible to get anything remotely representing value about the horse and there are many people to blame for that.  Not for me at all but I know how much you rate him so I genuinely wish you the best of luck and if he wins a chase at the festival I will be on here saying hats off to you sir.

To me the fact that they are already contemplating stepping him up in trip makes me think they have doubts. He is a very valuable asset and I just hope they make the best possible decisions for the horse.

bTW if anybody is remotely interested. 3 5 year olds have run in the arkle  this decade st calvados, clarcam and his excellency. 5 in the jlt with 2 second places (Terrefort and Bristol de mai) one faller (when still travelling well ) Djakadam and two unplaced Vukovar and Argocat. Interestingly Terrefort and BDM were the two most experienced with 12 and 13 runs respectively and FD has had 11 to date. Make of that what you will.

Perhaps Duffy. Personally I am firmly with irishone on this one in all aspects. I think if Samcro jumps like that in a championship race he will have top quality horses all around him and very soon will just get shuffled back and race over. It’s one thing to make mistakes when others aren’t pressuring you to your side and immediately behind you and another thing entirely in a deeper race. I also feel it is next to impossible to get anything remotely representing value about the horse and there are many people to blame for that.  Not for me at all but I know how much you rate him so I genuinely wish you the best of luck and if he wins a chase at the festival I will be on here saying hats off to you sir.

To me the fact that they are already contemplating stepping him up in trip makes me think they have doubts. He is a very valuable asset and I just hope they make the best possible decisions for the horse.

bTW if anybody is remotely interested. 3 5 year olds have run in the arkle  this decade st calvados, clarcam and his excellency. 5 in the jlt with 2 second places (Terrefort and Bristol de mai) one faller (when still travelling well ) Djakadam and two unplaced Vukovar and Argocat. Interestingly Terrefort and BDM were the two most experienced with 12 and 13 runs respectively and FD has had 11 to date. Make of that what you will.

Champ

Champ is very good but if he starts hanging up the Cheltenham hill like Might Bite did and he did at Newbury, he could get beaten.

MARIES ROCK ..... Won over two miles yesterday at haydock, very sticky ground, taken around the inside on the worse part of the track, couldnt jump , covered up, missed second last, had to go through a gap to get through, one tear and quickened very well, mare, absolutely pi55ed in, great turn of foot after two miles on sticky. HENDERSON \ NICO

Dec 5, 2019 -- 2:48AM, sageform wrote:

Champ is very good but if he starts hanging up the Cheltenham hill like Might Bite did and he did at Newbury, he could get beaten.

I’m looking forward to seeing Champ in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, should his connections decide to enter him in it. I read that they were thinking that’s where he will be going.

Has to be Defi yesterday but I was not impressed with the ride. Barry did keep him handy over the minimum trip but then got into a very tight situation over the railway fences.

I liked Esprit du Large in the Henry VIII, there was some well regarded types in the race and he won it pretty easily in the end.
Connections not drawn on targets, but I'd imagine the JLT would be right up his street as he wasn't stopping at the end on sticky ground. If it came up soft on Day 1, he would carry my Arkle money on what I've seen so far.

Dessie,
Leicester 2pm Coolanly 11/8.....was 2nd behind Esprit Du Large in Exeter.....promising run for Fergal O'Brien.....fwiw

I suppose that Call Me Lord was the best of a moderat bunch seen today. A narrow defeat of Ballyandy does not look close to Champion Hurdle form.

pentland hills will come on a bundle from that . blew up after the last after looking the winner .

What Foyles said

...but even so, was that Champion Hurdle form?

dont know hanx but it dont look a great bunch either side of the water

Case of 'who bursts into tears last' at the moment!

Quiet impressed with Redford Road, think 25's is very fair after watching that.

The BEST HORSE race (you saw run) this weekend was

Well unless Envoi Allen smashes it out of the park today, and even then it'd have to go some to beat Fiddlerontheroof's display at Sandown

Envoi Allen just did. How good is Jeremys Flame? She was top on RPR yesterday and Fiddler beat her very easily.

DEFI DU SEUIL easily

Impressed with Mr Fisher yesterday, jumped well, good performance.

It has to be Santini on the form shown. I still can't get my head round how such a big, gross, plodding striding horse can be good enough to win a Grade 1 race but he beat a horse with GC form in Bristol de Mai.

For the long-term, HARRY SENIOR in the Bllymore Hurdle Trial.

I'm no paddock watcher but he's a lovely big stamp of a horse, with a stamina-laden pedigree and who's with a trainer who knows the time of day when it comes to staying chasers, which is surely where this one is destined to go next season.

Okay, it was a muddling race but over a trip that'll prove short of his best he took off up the hill and settled this in a matter of strides, so he's got acceleration to go with his stamina.

RSA Chase next year.

LATEST EXHIBITION - Cooper - "...he kept on really well after the last...The further he goes the better he is. He’ll definitely go three miles and that will be more of a help to him at Cheltenham. Hurdles have really brought him alive and I’d say fences will suit him even better. It’s great to ride this winner for Paul as he’s stuck by me when things have been very quiet over the past few years.”.....10/1 from 12/1 for the Albert Bartlett.

Every year go to cheltenham and meet a few connections either holyhead or pembroke, learn stuff about the horses that never knew before and certainly never read on here. Lot of cheltenham bubbles burst on here since start of thread. Take heed lads keep your powder dry. Its not about boasting you got a great price on a winner, its about watching a horse develop from when you first saw it had something about it and predicted it would win at cheltenham on here and it wins, the money is secondary, easy game !

Without doubt, the horse I was most impressed with over the Dublin festival weekend was Notebook winning the Irish Arkle. Was up the front the whole way and it was a right test which found out the most of the field. Will be back to win the Cheltenham equivalent in 5 weeks.

The most impressive in its grade was Appreciate It and listening to Willie, he knows it.

I was not to sure about notebook, the others finished too close for me

Presenting Percy of course.

Notebook was visually impressive.
Two tough races in a row for him though and not much time to recover and train on the the Arkle.
The race winning time was 4 seconds slower than Chacun Pour Soi managed.

Yes there were quiet a few at dublin that ran their race

A casual look reveals only two winners from 16 dublin festival races last year went on to win at cheltenham, klassical dream and envoi allen .

The bumper race that WPM's Appreciate It won - was won by WPM's Blackbow in 2018, who was only 5th in Cheltenham, behind a 1,2,3 for WPM - Relagate (25/1)/Carefully Selected (6/1)/Tornedo Flyer (14/1).....WPM must have at least two better than him this year.

Faugheen!

unclepuncle 25 Nov 18 19:36

Most exciting prospect I saw last week was Emitom, trained by Warren Greatrex, was hugely impressive on his hurdle debut at at Ffos Las on Friday, having won both his bumpers previously - looks a great prospect.

Another I put in the notebook a couple of weeks back was Honeysuckle, trained by Henry De Bromhead. Won on her rules debut in superb fashion and could take high rank in the mares races over the next few seasons.


Best judge on here by a mile.

It wouldnt be difficult would it.

Emitom rain like a pig comeback

Cant warm to it

Sporting John.
Very impressive, big player in the Ballymore.

Can we have a horse that falls at the last? If so, Goshen.
Unbelievable performance he was putting in.

If not Envoi Allen.....very impressive.

Abracadabras and Shishkin were very good as well.
And Concertista.

Lots to look forward to next season.