Ghizao

I suspect they are now. Shocking round of jumping from him today.

Agree Sint poor today,one more go and tear up my ante-post slip.

I've stuck up for Ghizao quite a lot on here.

i fancied him for last years Arkle because of the beating he gave Captain Chris, and I've said that he was good value for the Champion Chase at 20/1 (although I haven't backed him), if Finians was 8/1.

However, after that run today I can't see him getting anywhere near a Champion Chase.  Nicholls said he lost his confidence towards the end of last year, and unfortunately I've lost my confidence in him now.

I agree Wellchief, unless he was very undercooked today, he was very disappointing.

Well apparently he was trained for today,so that dont bode well.
Will be very interesting next time out,another run like that you can forget the QM,but i personally would not give up on a horse after one run this season.
Was pretty bad though,maybe they will find something amiss.

didnt even jump well today. definately better than finishing pos suggests, by how much though im not sure.

I thought he waas the paddock pick today, whereas C Chris looked undercooked. I know the best/fittest looking horses get beaten all the time, but Ghizao was particulalry underwhelming. In fact, the form of the whole race probably was. Cornas is a prett good yardstick for the 2 m chasers imo.

PN's horses all wrong imo. Not worth reading too much into the form of his runners.

Significant that Alan King thinks 2 miles is too short for Medermit despite the form book saying he is one of the best 2 mile novices from last yeear. It is starting to look as if none of last years Arkle horses are in the same class as Sizing Europe or Big Zeb. Captain Chris did make up a lot of ground between the last 2 fences but it was 2.2 miles on a tough course yesterday and over a fast 2 miles Cornas might have beaten all of them.

Big Zeb wont come close to winning a champion chase again.

Wouldnt be too sure bout that coming close, think certain to be in shake up.

Agree,think Big Zeb will be a threat to SE again.

arent age stats against big zeb and sizing europe?!!

Seemed to spend far too long in the air in his jumps yesterday to be anywhere near Champion Chase quality. Think the CC is wide open this year, can't have any of the novices from last year being good enough, likewise Big Zeb, so it either looks a sh00 in for Sizing Europe to bag CC number 2, or there will be a big price winner. I'd definitely give Medermit a bit of a squeak if his Arkle run wasn't so poor.

Age stats,umm ok its a point,but i always wait until i actually see a horse regress,and finishing 2nd to one of the best performamnces in a QM for some time,and then beating that horse next time means i think he's still a force in this division.
THey both are imo at this stage the ones to beat come March.

Medermit stepping up in distance according to trainer.

Ah ok, cheers Bud. No idea what wins then. Can't be as easy as SE retaining his crown.

Hope he aint messing us about Joist,ive had a dabble for the Ryannair on the strength of his comments.

2 horses were clear of last years 2 mile novices. Captain Chris & Finians Rainbow. Don't see why either of them can't win the Champion Chase. Capt Chris would have won and will come on for the run massively according to paddock reports. As for Ghizao even though I don't think he's good enough for a champ chase yesterday was surely too bad to be true. Forgotten how to jump by the look of things.

The way Finians finished in the Arkle would concern me,having looked all over the winner he really struggled on the run in i thought.Of course he should strenghten and may well prove up to it,but i have my doubts and at current prices not for me,and i think both SE and BZ will have too much speed for CC,despite their age.
Still they are as you say the top novices of last year so given the record of Arkle horses they cannot be dismissed

I agree MM. Why are you so happy to write off last years novices Joist? I personally thought it was a top class Arkle last year.

I think it's partly due to not taking to any of them personally, which has never happened before. It's obviously a very subjective way to dismiss them and it may well have been a rather hasty comment, but an Arkle won by Captain Chris really doesn't scream of having a CC winner inside. Of course, I could well be being quite harsh on Captain Chris but he just doesn't inspire the champion awe in me. Like I say, completely subjective stuff with little rational reasoning, just feeling really.

Thought I would add my views, for what they're worth.

Am inclined to agree with virtually everything I have read from others regarding Ghizao. Jumping was very lacklustre and you'd have to be disappointed with his performance. But, as bud said, I'd give him at least one more chance before writing him off. His mid-season form with Captain Chris last term is exceptional so he clearly has the talent to impose himself if things do get ironed out. Admittedly, it's a big if, but he was also a little below-par first up last season so I'll tread carefully for the time being.

Regarding the QM, it does sound very much as though connections of SE are looking elsewhere, and I agree that Big Zeb could go close but hard to see him winning it with another year behind him. I have been burned twice by his weak finish up the hill, but could be (possibly stupid) persuaded to give Finian's one more chance. Granted, he must probably strengthen and/or conserve energy better to get up the hill but to me he is the only one with the raw talent that I can see to win the race from last season's novices. Captain Chris would be hard to ignore, I grant, but I just get the feeling he will go over further this year. I think in time he'll be a Gold Cup horse and think he will be trained for stamina rather than speed this term.

I backed CC early on for the Arkle last season, but assumed I had done my money until the big day when he kept getting beaten. His racing style is very deceptive. Both at Cheltenham and at Exeter he seemed to be in trouble unti 2 out when he suddenly changes gear (or do the others struggle) and sweeps past like a good horse. Still think he will be better over further and Cornas is a good mark to the form. CC would not have beaten Cornas more than 5 lengths giving 5lb at Exeter and that is not Champion form surely? I have always believed that top class 2 mile chasers are very rare and that is why the same horses often dominate for a few years. Sizing Europe and Voy Por have made the jump from Arkle to Champion in one season but it is not common.

can we add sage to the aftertiming fred pls

But sage, I think everyone is reading too much into this race. I would think CC was at no more than 70% this week. Beating Cornas 5l giving him 5lb when nowehere near ready might well be CC form. Cornas has often gone well this time of year and had the benefit of a run.

Getting beaten 10l by Ghizao this time last year probably wasnt Arkle winning form either!! CC could well be a horse who taks a few runs to get to his best, or even be a Spring horse. Either way, I dont think his run was anything other than perfectly satisfactory for the bigger picture. I am baffled anyone can see it as a negative for his QM chnaces myself.

He certainly looks to be a spring horse.

Ccm - the biggest strike against his CC chances is surely that the plan is for him to try the Gold Cup?

That would certainly be a huge negative strontium! But now what I've heard....

Has Hobbs been quoted saying that? Read this before Tuesday:

"He’s in great form,” confirmed Hobbson Monday. “You’d hope he’d be heading for the Champion Chase but a lot depends on what happens at Exeter. He definitely improved through last season but maybe Ghizao is better fresh.”

And I dont believe they saw anything to put them off the CC.

* not what I've heard

Wont Wishfull Thinking be connections horse for further as well?

Interesting, I hadn't seen that. After the Arkle, Hobbs said he'd aim CC at the King George - which would almost force their hand to go for the Gold Cup if he runs well given what a superb trial the KG is for the GC.

(Hobbs added:  "It's a big relief to get one on the board. We always thought he would need two and a half miles - and I'm sure he does too - but he jumped mustard. He was a bit right-handed but he jumped well. My first thought is that the King George VI Chase at Kempton would suit him just the job.")

I'd pretty much be happy to back Arkle winners blind in the following QMCC given their stellar record (Sizing Europe, Forpady, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes). Nevertheless, you have to figure the chance of the horse actually showing up in any antepost bet.

Yes of course. I think thats well factored in at 10/1 myself. I'm happy with the price anyway.

I think Wishfull Thinking is a big factor in their plans.... They would be much more likely to step him up in trip if they didnt have him too imo. But if he is to take in the PP or Hennesy, the next logical step for him would be the KG as well.

Indeed - and Hobbs' comments above (about CC) were made before WT's fine end of season performances. I suspect you are right - it seems odd that CC would run in the Haldon GC if they weren't looking at a 2 m camapign. Good luck with your bet.

You too mate.

CC needs further than 2 milers. He would have won at Extere but that is 17.5 f and if you look at his Arkle win it's obvious (imo) that he outstayed Finiains up the run in. Finians did all the donkey work out in front and it was a gut busting run pinging all them fences like that. That is why he did not look quite so good at Aintree in the Maghull Novices.

re Ghizao, he did get beat 8l on debut last season, but if they think he is a genuine CC contender then he needs to be winning handicaps like the Haldon off 155. Paul Nicholls has saddled plenty of winner this season aswell. He had a double at Kempton the day before and won the big race at Wetherby the day before that with Fistral Beach.

The only excuse I can offer for Ghizao is the ground being too quick, as the going at the previous meeting was actually firm! But i'd still want to see more before backing the khuunt again!

Sint - there are very few G1 or G2 chases over (exactly) 2 m for non-novices before the spring Festivals - just the Tingle Creek and the Desert Orchid Chase I think.

The VC Chase and Game Spirit are 17 f.

So the "2 mile" horses in fact have to run further than 16 f if they are going to run at graded level because no other races exist for them in the UK.

Yep I get that Strontium. But if we're talking Champion Chase then exactly 2m will be too short for CC imo,even if they go lightening fast.

I think he is certain to be stepped up in trip personally but we'll just have to wait and see

OK - I wasn't sure whether you were making a point about CC or the Haldon GC!

Sint. So you reckon PN's horses are Ok then?! Sorry but I dont. Of course he'll knock a few winners in, even during a bad patch, but more have underperformed than should imo.

As posted on the other thread, Hobbs was quoted on Monday as saying he would like to think CC would line up in the QM, but he'd see how he got on at Exeter first. As Strontium rightly points out, this is a great starting point for the QM imo, mainly because there arent many other options. 2m2f doesnt even equate to 2m around Chelts either.

And as you point out Finians didnt stay the trip, which could be his problem at Chelts. As we have said many times, you want a horse that can stay two and a half in the QM anyway. I think CC is tailor made for it.

Which horses have underperformed CCM ? The only one I can think off is Master Minded.

He has had 12 winners from his last 45 runners, which is over 25%. Par. This does not represent horses not being right,imo.

re Hobbs, his last Arkle runner was Planet of Sound who finished 3rd. In his next season POS started off in the Haldon, which he won, and by the end of the season he was winning over 3 miles.

I didn't say Finians did not stay the trip, I said he got outstayed by a horse blessed with more stamina.

But Hobbs is quoted as saying he hopes he ends up in the QM mate? Seems odd to say that if that isnt the plan. I cant remember which thread I've posted what on now! But as said on one of them, I think connections have decided Wishful Thinking will be their KG, possible GC horse, so it seems logical to keep CC for the QM to me. And surely they must be swayed by the great record of Arkle winners? I am not sure it works comparing him to POS myself. Even in the Arkle he never looked a 2 miler, and there is quite a difference in finishing 3rd and winning. I also think their is a serious lack of top class 2 milers at the min, yet loads of exciting 3 milers.

Finians didnt stay, or was outstayed. Always impossible to decide if its one way or the other, but Finians didnt stay well enough to win. Thast the main point. Even with strengthening up, will he ever stay well enough to beat CC at Chelts? I would say not.

I think a few of PN's horses have underperformed. Master Minded as you said. Poquelin and What A Friend both ran poorly at Wetherby. Takeroc was the same at Ascot. I believe they couldnt believe Sollim didnt win at Chepstow this week. To be fair, I didnt realise he had had that many winners, so I was wrong in saying the yard is all wrong, but still think there are plenty not firing, and I think you can ignore some horses runs at this time of year. Bound to be a good bunch of his out of form. That was only in the context of ignoring Ghizao's run though. I'm not a fan of the horse anyway, but wouldnt be unduly concerned by the run if I was a backer.

My earlier point about Capt chris was that he is hard to read. He races like a stayer but cabfinish like the best 2 miler. The question is not so much can he win a Champion as will he runin it? Looks perfect for the Ryanair.

POS was left 8 lengths at the start in his Arkle run CCM. Would have gone close otherwise.

We'll see anyway. You doing the TTF this year ?

And I agree with you re the multiple threads. Really phucks me off people start news one all the time as a lot of the good posts get lost.

Certainly am mate!

Have whittled my list down to 16. No idea how I'm going to get to 10 + 2.

See what I mean about Nicholls Sint? Horses not right. Get up to speed will you

Makes Ghizaos run look even worse.

As mentioned previously, only real possible reason for his failure in the Haldon was the ground, as his best peformances have come on Soft, and on breeding Tiger Hills love a bit of cut.

Nicholls horses suddenly find form when the £10k races are around. Happens every year.

But they were never out of form, Sage. He was running at a 25% strike rate before the weekend.

my impression from the race was that he lost his confidence after making some mistakes early, ruby wisely took him
wide to get a better look at his fences, but his effort petered out fairly quickly, possibly due to race-fitness.

unwise to write him off on the back of one run.