Ghizao

I suspect they are now. Shocking round of jumping from him today.

I've stuck up for Ghizao quite a lot on here.

i fancied him for last years Arkle because of the beating he gave Captain Chris, and I've said that he was good value for the Champion Chase at 20/1 (although I haven't backed him), if Finians was 8/1.

However, after that run today I can't see him getting anywhere near a Champion Chase.  Nicholls said he lost his confidence towards the end of last year, and unfortunately I've lost my confidence in him now.

Well apparently he was trained for today,so that dont bode well.
Will be very interesting next time out,another run like that you can forget the QM,but i personally would not give up on a horse after one run this season.
Was pretty bad though,maybe they will find something amiss.

I thought he waas the paddock pick today, whereas C Chris looked undercooked. I know the best/fittest looking horses get beaten all the time, but Ghizao was particulalry underwhelming. In fact, the form of the whole race probably was. Cornas is a prett good yardstick for the 2 m chasers imo.

Significant that Alan King thinks 2 miles is too short for Medermit despite the form book saying he is one of the best 2 mile novices from last yeear. It is starting to look as if none of last years Arkle horses are in the same class as Sizing Europe or Big Zeb. Captain Chris did make up a lot of ground between the last 2 fences but it was 2.2 miles on a tough course yesterday and over a fast 2 miles Cornas might have beaten all of them.

Wouldnt be too sure bout that coming close, think certain to be in shake up.

arent age stats against big zeb and sizing europe?!!

Age stats,umm ok its a point,but i always wait until i actually see a horse regress,and finishing 2nd to one of the best performamnces in a QM for some time,and then beating that horse next time means i think he's still a force in this division.
THey both are imo at this stage the ones to beat come March.

Ah ok, cheers Bud. No idea what wins then. Can't be as easy as SE retaining his crown.

2 horses were clear of last years 2 mile novices. Captain Chris & Finians Rainbow. Don't see why either of them can't win the Champion Chase. Capt Chris would have won and will come on for the run massively according to paddock reports. As for Ghizao even though I don't think he's good enough for a champ chase yesterday was surely too bad to be true. Forgotten how to jump by the look of things.

I agree MM. Why are you so happy to write off last years novices Joist? I personally thought it was a top class Arkle last year.

Thought I would add my views, for what they're worth.

Am inclined to agree with virtually everything I have read from others regarding Ghizao. Jumping was very lacklustre and you'd have to be disappointed with his performance. But, as bud said, I'd give him at least one more chance before writing him off. His mid-season form with Captain Chris last term is exceptional so he clearly has the talent to impose himself if things do get ironed out. Admittedly, it's a big if, but he was also a little below-par first up last season so I'll tread carefully for the time being.

Regarding the QM, it does sound very much as though connections of SE are looking elsewhere, and I agree that Big Zeb could go close but hard to see him winning it with another year behind him. I have been burned twice by his weak finish up the hill, but could be (possibly stupid) persuaded to give Finian's one more chance. Granted, he must probably strengthen and/or conserve energy better to get up the hill but to me he is the only one with the raw talent that I can see to win the race from last season's novices. Captain Chris would be hard to ignore, I grant, but I just get the feeling he will go over further this year. I think in time he'll be a Gold Cup horse and think he will be trained for stamina rather than speed this term.

can we add sage to the aftertiming fred pls

He certainly looks to be a spring horse.

Ccm - the biggest strike against his CC chances is surely that the plan is for him to try the Gold Cup?

* not what I've heard

Interesting, I hadn't seen that. After the Arkle, Hobbs said he'd aim CC at the King George - which would almost force their hand to go for the Gold Cup if he runs well given what a superb trial the KG is for the GC.

(Hobbs added:  "It's a big relief to get one on the board. We always thought he would need two and a half miles - and I'm sure he does too - but he jumped mustard. He was a bit right-handed but he jumped well. My first thought is that the King George VI Chase at Kempton would suit him just the job.")

I'd pretty much be happy to back Arkle winners blind in the following QMCC given their stellar record (Sizing Europe, Forpady, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Voy Por Ustedes). Nevertheless, you have to figure the chance of the horse actually showing up in any antepost bet.

Indeed - and Hobbs' comments above (about CC) were made before WT's fine end of season performances. I suspect you are right - it seems odd that CC would run in the Haldon GC if they weren't looking at a 2 m camapign. Good luck with your bet.

CC needs further than 2 milers. He would have won at Extere but that is 17.5 f and if you look at his Arkle win it's obvious (imo) that he outstayed Finiains up the run in. Finians did all the donkey work out in front and it was a gut busting run pinging all them fences like that. That is why he did not look quite so good at Aintree in the Maghull Novices.

re Ghizao, he did get beat 8l on debut last season, but if they think he is a genuine CC contender then he needs to be winning handicaps like the Haldon off 155. Paul Nicholls has saddled plenty of winner this season aswell. He had a double at Kempton the day before and won the big race at Wetherby the day before that with Fistral Beach.

The only excuse I can offer for Ghizao is the ground being too quick, as the going at the previous meeting was actually firm! But i'd still want to see more before backing the khuunt again!

Yep I get that Strontium. But if we're talking Champion Chase then exactly 2m will be too short for CC imo,even if they go lightening fast.

I think he is certain to be stepped up in trip personally but we'll just have to wait and see

Sint. So you reckon PN's horses are Ok then?! Sorry but I dont. Of course he'll knock a few winners in, even during a bad patch, but more have underperformed than should imo.

As posted on the other thread, Hobbs was quoted on Monday as saying he would like to think CC would line up in the QM, but he'd see how he got on at Exeter first. As Strontium rightly points out, this is a great starting point for the QM imo, mainly because there arent many other options. 2m2f doesnt even equate to 2m around Chelts either.

And as you point out Finians didnt stay the trip, which could be his problem at Chelts. As we have said many times, you want a horse that can stay two and a half in the QM anyway. I think CC is tailor made for it.