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Fingal Bay - Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle
Fingal Bay - Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle
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Last yr's Neptune turned into a sprint. I would have thought the Albert Bartlett would be the more ideal race at this stage.
Regarding Nicholls decision to run Denman in the old Ballymore, at that time the Brit Novices had (I think - i could be wrong) only been run once before. I can understand his uncertainty about running him in it. Denman, after all, had won the Challow at (that yr) Cheltenham over 2m4 by 21L - why would he (given that Ballymore trial) chose to run over 3m at the Festival? He won next time out at the easy Bangor over 3, but in that race Black Jack Ketchum ducked the dual by being pulled out on the morning. BJK won the Brit very impressivly that year, so at the time it appeared sensible to keep them apart. Not many people then were suggesting if Denman had run in the Brit he would have beaten BJK. BJK had also won over 3m at Cheltenham impressively under a penalty in December. I also recall Nicholls saying Denman had been devilishly hard to get right that spring, and looked better in his coat 2 weeks after the Festival defeat. I certainly would not have blamed the trip alone. BJK was evens in the Brit and Denman was 11/10 - I dont think too much went wrong really. |
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RC
If I recall correctly, Denman and Nicanor were a long way clear of the third. BJK was decent but Denman would surely have trounced him over 3 miles? Philip Hobbs himself says FB isn't a speed horse. If the ground is good-soft or quicker, then I can see something doing him for speed over the Neptune trip which has been campaigned over shorter distances. |
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Barnesy- I agree with you, I don't believe Fingal Bay is short of pace at all. My opinion is, he is just a horse that is going to prefer cut in the ground his breeding and action tells me this. If the Neptune was run on soft I think he would be a 2-1 chance now but the race probably won't be and the longer race where stamina will be at a premium will favour him more on the ground I would say.
Nick Williams horse Diamond Harry had the same high class form and profile going into the Neptune and always looked not short of pace in his build up. He loved the soft too. The trainer always regretted not running in the Albert Bartlett as the race is run at a different tempo and with lesser opposition. That is the way I would go but am not a trainer and the other race (neptune) is far more prestigious...he is a worthy favorite however at this time... |
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Hi Festivalfanatic - I agree re Fingal, I think I would prefer to see him (on decent ground) in the longer race.
Re BJK, I agree now Denman would have been a good thing, but i am not certain it was so clear at the time. Anyway, 2 super horses. GL mate. |
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In his book, Ruby blames himself for getting Denman beaten in that race.
As for Fingal Bay, he didn't look slow at Chepstow in his hurdles debut, or at Cheltenham in his second race, or at Sandown in his third. And he keeps winning - many of you are being very harsh on an unbeaten horse that's won 3 Grade 2 hurdles and a Grade 1, all over about 2 1/2 miles. I'm pretty sure I haven't seen a better novice hurdler yet this season. |
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Harry, to me he didn't look like he was benefitting from the ground at Newbury. Imo it was his least impressive run over hurdles and the rest were on faster ground. I'm not up on the breeding side of things, maybe you could tell me what about his breeding suggests he wants soft?
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Well others will know more about breeding than me (and hopefully they will contribute) as I'm more a flat man and still learning after 18 years. For what it is worth, he is a Kings Theatre and his progeny are tending to be better with cut in the ground although a couple of his best jumpers Menorah and Captain Chris have proved this to be slightly wrong as both have performed well on good jumping ground, although there mothers were by Strong Gale a decent sire of good ground horses...like I say I'm no professional on this subject but just an observation I have made with the sire Kings Theatre.
Like all breeding you can never be certain and until Fingal Bay encounters proper spring good ground. we won't know whether he is still as good as he has shown so far on winter jumping ground but he certainly displays a knee to my eyes. At chepstow on good ground he needed to be pushed out to win (admittedly easily) but that would say to me he would be better over further on that type of ground. That isn't to say he can't perform to a high level at that kind of trip it just means it will be harder work for him...imho |
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no challow winner has ever won the neptune.
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One thing I will add for the Fingal fans without going on, is for Phillip Hobbs to say he maybe the best he has had, is a huge compliment to the horse considering the horses he has in his barn. And his form certainly is top class novice form.
For me he would be a banker of the meeting in the Albert Bartlett but if he runs in the Neptune he would be a banker bet but only in the place market. |
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Just watch FB's win at Cheltenham....firstly I think 2m5f will be fine in the Neptune for him, they recorded a good time that day. For FB to hit the second last like he did would have stopped most horses, and yes he had to be shaken up, but once over the last he was striding away from a good horse in Barbatos. (has beaten him twice now and who has won at Cheltenham since).....this horse has class, speed, stamina and has a heart to fight if he needs to. Its all there....keep it simple, go to the race distance he knows.
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I think he'll be better in a better race and all his form points to him being the best staying novice in England but I was mighty impressed by Make Your Mark in admittedly only a novice (or even maiden) hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas but the style was very smooth and he went straight to 2nd favourite for The Neptune so presumably he's one of Mullins' best. I wouldn't like to try and second guess the trainer but wouldn't have thought he'd want the guts ripped out of it over 3 miles as it looked like a horse of massive potential in the long term.
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Booster....agree with you about Make your Mark....but who knows with Mullins...he may not even go to Cheltenham....may save him for Punchs, but even saying that I think FB is a name we will be talikng about for a few years and I feel will win the Neptune well (not easy but well)
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Fingal is going to apparently have another run. Will this be one too many come the big day? He puts everything into each run.
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Hobbs said in his daily mirror column today no more runs - straight to neptune
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Excellent news - ta barnesy
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Philip Hobbs last night revealed Fingal Bay will now go straight to the Cheltenham Festival, where he will run in the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle over 2m 5f - in preference to the three-mile Albert Bartlett Hurdle.
Hobbs had been expecting to get another run into the horse he believes could be the best he has ever trained. But now he proposes to give the bay a break before bringing him back fresh in March. Writing in his Mirror Racing column, the 'Master Trainer' admits he was satisfied with his unbeaten hurdler's less-than-spectacular win at Newbury last Saturday, when the hot favourite appeared to be all-out to beat 25-1 outsider Bally Rock by a length. While making it clear the horse has come out of the race well, Hobbs (left) is concerned the Newbury race - his fourth since October - has taken the edge off Fingal Bay. That has brought about this change of plan. |
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Just listen to me - I'm always right (and normally very, very drunk)
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Philip Hobbs is likely to send Fingal Bay to the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham without the aid of another run.
Hobbs had been undecided whether to aim for the intermediate trip of two miles and five furlongs or step him up to three miles. However, the Minehead handler now believes he has enough experience, and is not keen on stepping up to three miles for the first time in the white-hot heat of the Festival. "We thought about giving him another run, but I think he'll go straight to Cheltenham now," said Hobbs. "If that's the case, it looks more and more likely he'll run in the Neptune, as you wouldn't want to run him in the Albert Bartlett without having run him over three miles." Fingal Bay is 5-1 for the Neptune with Ladbrokes and William Hill. |
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thats good.wallet talking backed for Neptunes but not for albert bartlett
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CheltFestNews CheltFestNews
Bad luck on Ian Williams, his Neptune Novice Hurdle fancy Barbatos is out for the season. |
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Fingals Bay looks an e/w bet to nothing at 5/1. I've just had a hefty e/w bet but I just have a nagging feeling something will beat him.
With no news at all about Simonsig and what race, if any, he's going for, I've also taken some of the remaining 12/1 on Make Your Mark - no worthwhile form in the book, but he does look very smart and his trainer and owner have a decent record in the race so I'd like think he'll be aimed at it. If he wins the Delloite impressively he'll be vying for favourtism, and could easily go off a stupid price like So Young did last year (especially if Mulllins has another treble on the first day). |
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Uncle he has many entries Mullins in Delloite,think may go longer race and has lot to prove yet.
Soux Les Cieux was being targetted at Delloite. |
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About Simonsig....so many on here think he is bound for the Supreme. In Mark Howard's book, One Jump Ahead, it is suggested that the best probable distance for the Sig is 2m4f-3m......if this is indeed the case then the race for him has to be the Albert Bartlett....surely its the easy one on paper with Fingal Bay opting for the Neptune and a fistful of hot ones in the supreme. Nothing at the optimum distance has shone as head and shoulders above the rest, and he could be just that. Come Mr Henderson give us a clue or if Mr Howard is out there can you quantify the probable distance mentioned in your book. (and no I have had no ante post bet in this race...yet)
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Shakespeare - plans for horses change all the time so I wouldn't get too bogged down by what was written in a book published 3 months ago. IMO the one race Simonsig will absolutely not being going for is the Albert Bartlett. I also think it would be pointless of Henderson to try and take on Fingal again in the Neptune, he was comprehensively seen off at Sandown. I am biased given have bet him for the supreme but he shows so much pace it would surely be the best option for him.
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Simonsig is owned by Mr Bartlett so, like Oscar Wells running in the owners race at Ffos Las, it may still be a possibility, but on the limited racecourse evidence there is no way he wants a gruelling 3 miles.
On normal ground I'd still be running him in the Neptune, but maybe Fingals has scared them off (and Mark Your Card may yet add real strength to the Neoptune field) so maybe he'll go for the Supreme. I also wonder if the lack of an obvious stand-out favourite in the Suprme will tip the balance - I'd make him favourite if Henderson came out and said he was fit and well and being aimed at it. The worrying thing is that he hasn't run since Sandown and dosen't appear to have been entered etc. I'm juts concerned that everything may not be ok with him? |
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I've been a bit worried as well UP, I've got more on this horse at Cheltenham than any other.
However, his price has remained fairly strong in the Supreme and we know how quick Hendo's staff like to lay one if they're not going for it  |
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Also, I don't think its impossible to reverse the form with Fingal, on what was only his second start over hurdles. Stacks and stacks of improvement in him imo
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I think Fingal Bay is the type who will always pull out a bit more when required and really cannot see Simonsig turning the form round. Simon has already run to a rating high enough to have won most of the Supremes in recent history. I just don't understand why Henderson would go for the Neptune and finish second, rather than win a Supreme.
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I agree mate that Fingal will be difficult to pass, but Simonsig is pretty much 3 times the price with only 2.5 lengths to find.
I think he would have come on an awful lot from his last run. |
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Uncle Punkle
Make your Mark not going for Deloitte Mullins said he wanted to just go low key with him on his next start...Sous le Cieux is going to the Deloitte he said a couple of weeks ago...hope this helps. |
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I was mightily impressed with Fingal at Chepstow and Cheltenham. However, I feel what he did at Newbury was very worrying. If he idles like that at the Festival he seems most unlikley to get a second chance at winning the race as he was able to do in the Challow. Presumably, they'll try to avoid getting to the front for as long as possible, which should be easier at the Festival and he was in front for a long way at Newbury, but that can be a dangerous tactic. I think he'll be a vulnerable favourite to something progressive and cleverly ridden.
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Form well franked today through Battonier.
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Yes it was stront though I suspect Battonier is very progressive.
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wat a horse 9/2 is such a gd price, i really fancy him i love this horse i really think he has it all and can go right to the top. I think he is with a master in phillip hobbs aswell i have never seen a better trainer of a hurdler he gets them jumping so slick and fast. ironic as this horse is going to some 3 mile chaser. He first came to my attention at chepstow and have loved him ever since u can just see all he wants to do is please richard johnson(watch his ears in the closing stages of a race), to me the horse was mortified he let johnson down two out at cheltenham and to recover and jump the last and bound away up the hill was exceptional.The piece of form that really stamps him down as top class imo is the sandown race where he beat a field that imsure will prove to be quality. Simonsig is a horse i really rate aswell so much so that i cldnt bring myself to back either horse that day.thankfully they both ran terrific races and to me they both enhanced there reputations.Simonsig is a rattling gd bet in the supreme i really think he is a cut above the opposition and i rate him very highly i think he could develop into a champion hurdle contender next season. so for fingal to beat him that day was a brilliant effort. TAKE NOTE AND BACK BOTH IN THERE PROSPECTIVE RACES.my confident cheltenham trixie is completed by long run whom i think posted a fine effort in the K.G the way he valiantly chased home kauto and hassled him to the line suggests to me he will get his revenge in the gold cup. his jumping seemed alot better at kempton than at haydock to.wld like to hear ur views please.regards kieran
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Hes a good horse alright,but if Boston Bob takes him on in the Neptune he has a real race on his hands.
Not at all sure about Simonsig,looks pretty good but i was disappointed with the way he finished his race at Sandown when looking all over the winner before the last.Wont be backing him at Cheltenham. |
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Boston Bob will beat Fingal Bay if they meet at Festival,could see Fingal Bay going for longer race imo.
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Batonnier earned a quote of 16-1 for the Neptune Management Novices’ Hurdle after beating the highly-rated Broadbackbob in the dress-rehearsal over the same course and distance, and Alan confirmed that he will now go straight to the Festival.
Wayne said: “I did not expect this one. Batonnier has surprised me, but he ran a blinder here on New Year’s Day and we knew that he had each-way chance. “He has done nothing but improve and deserves to go the Festival, though long-term he will make a smashing chaser.” Alan was similarly enthusiastic, both with Batonnier and third-placed Secret Edge, observing: “Batonnier has improved a hell of a lot, and he worked brilliantly mid-week, so we were hopeful of a big run. “He used to be quite keen, but we have taught him to relax and he is now much more settled. He has a terrific engine. “Secret Edge has also run a stormer. We knew that he would improve for stepping up in trip, and two and a half miles seems to suit him well, so there might not be anything for him at the Festival. He is still only four, so there is no rush for him.” |
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no disputing boston bob is a gd horse but i love a battler and i dont think fingal will let him past, boston will loom large approaching the last but wont be able to get past up the hill (iv read the script)....really cant see batonier being involved think that was a very weak race for the grade on the weekend secret edge a close third (had to work quite hard to win at fontwell) i just dont think its gd form at all....looks a match to me ??
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I think Fingal Bay is lay of the festival. Wouldn't touch him, when I saw him in the paddock at Cheltenham, I wasn't that taken by him either. Would rather lay him to place than back him to win to be quite honest.
I think PH was quite stupid making his remark at such an early stage. Has basically set the horse up to be a disapointment imo |
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I can see Fingal Bay going where Boston Bob doesnt go. Then again PH did successfully take on Dunguib 2 years back.
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