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11 Oct 11 23:20
Date Joined: 14 Dec 08
| Topic/replies: 123 | Blogger: rymattock's blog
Got him all wrong last season......ante post and his first 2 runs, and this cant hapen again!!! i was at cheltenham when he fell 2 out stil feeling this pain Cry  he look a cert turning in!!

I Contined to bk him ante post for both the neptunes and albert  [cry:] thn bkd him for challow hrd after this just started to lose faith.....yeah i know he won 2 races before the supreme bt i just was convinced wit his juming. so was convinced he cudnt win the supreme.....i remember saying to my mate in the ring anything bt al ferof.....i'd bkd spirit son and sprinter sacre both at fancy odds and thn we all know wat happened.....Cry

so which race do you all think he will go for and why?? knowing my luck he will champion hrd route Laugh
Pause Switch to Standard View AL FEROF......??
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Report sintonian January 22, 2012 9:32 PM GMT
I never said AF's win was not relevant.
Report Can't Catch Me January 22, 2012 9:37 PM GMT
Sorry, I paraphrased Happy

Ok I agree it isnt 'extremely valuable', but I'd say its definitely 'valuable'.
Report sintonian January 22, 2012 9:43 PM GMT
Course form always valuable at Cheltenham for sure. But like Budde says, not the be all and end all,innit.
Report Byerley_Racing January 22, 2012 10:24 PM GMT
any stats on Novices going into the Arkle having previously had a run outside of Novice company? Can think of any off hand but would be surprised if there are not a few that have attempted it.
Report barnesy January 22, 2012 11:28 PM GMT
Looking at the betting for the Arkle at the moment I'm finding it hard to see many turning up after the first six. With the top five or six giving the race so much depth it's easy to see the rest dodging the race for the Jewson or a handicap, 10 ran in the race last year and that number could easily be less this year.
The point being that whilst I like Al Ferof, yesterday only reinforced my view that he can only win the Arkle if the race falls apart in front of him. If Cue Card and/or Sprinter Sacre have to cut out the running themselves then this makes the race more about tactical speed and I believe that in this scenario the chance of them racing to early is decreased. The pacesetters in the Supreme set an electric early gallop and dropped away along way from home.
I heard Ruby Walsh said he would make a fantastic King George mount next year and I would agree with that. For me his future lies over further.
Report buddeliea January 23, 2012 7:07 AM GMT
think most of us pretty much agree his future lies over further.
This season however hes running over 2m and doing well at it.
2m on a track like Cheltenham will suit him fine at this stage of his career imo,and more importantly in the opinion of his connections.
As for the race,well not easy to predict,but i think it safe to say that CC and SS will be prominent and the natural way they run suggests to me a pace that Alf will appreciate.
Report sintonian January 23, 2012 9:27 AM GMT
That is not technically true Budde. Some horses are campaigned over 2 miles simply because they are being nutured for a later date, not because it suits them now.

As for the pace, well yes CC will most likely set it. But he does not explode off hell for leather. He has a high cruising speed and keeps going. SS will most likely track him along with PC. Menorah will be held-up as will Blackstairmountain, as they can both use their speed at the end. If all of these line up i'd not even be surprised to see AF unplaced. You may laugh, but there are simply quicker horses in the field than him.
Report sintonian January 23, 2012 9:41 AM GMT
Well apparently PC goes straight to Cheltenham. That goes down as a negative for me. Was eexpecting him to have a run somewhere to show he is over the Kempton muscle/niggle issue but we wont get a chance to see that so will revise my quip about AF being potentially unplaced as it's obvious who has had the better preparation going into the race of the pair.

Report festivalfanatic January 23, 2012 9:58 AM GMT
I'm intruiged by the apparent knocking of AF on here. He might well be better of upped in trip but has done nothing wrong over 2 miles. His profile, trainer and jockey would be difficult to improve upon. Big question mark about the well being of PC for me and CC is ridden by a muppet. AF should be second favourite for the Arkle based on chase form so far. I'm a SS believer but AF is the horse I'd be most worried about.
Report sintonian January 23, 2012 10:09 AM GMT
Dont think it can be deemed as knocking tbh, FF. Just plain and simple race-reading and analysis. I have no problem with the horse at all, and I suspect others dont either.

Lets put it like this .. how many people who have been chatting on these Arkle threads this season have gone and backed AF after the weekends race..

Lots of punters on here have said it was a great prep/effort etc which it was .. so i'd be equally intrigued as to who of them has decided to go and bet ..

..i've considered a saver myself. But want to see the final line-up first as you could equally fancy a saver on CC or others imo.
Report buddeliea January 23, 2012 12:14 PM GMT
That is not technically true Budde

Well,put it this way then,if they thought it werent right for him now and like you thought he aint quick enough for 2m,its my opinion he would not be running in the race.
As for the race itself,all i said was i think the pace will be enough for Alf to appreciate,never said anything near hell for leather.
As for a saver on him,that would be wise imo,but i would not rule out one on CC or PC.
Really think its between the top 4,and i personally would not rule out any of them.
Think it would be foolish to.
Report buddeliea January 23, 2012 12:18 PM GMT
Strictly on form,their is an argument to say AF should be fav.

Not that i want to get into a debate on that one,its all been said on the SS 5/2 fav thread.
Report buddeliea January 23, 2012 12:19 PM GMT
Do you think the quickest horse wins the Arkle??
Report sintonian January 23, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
Your not going to hit me with this needing to stay the trip stuff again are you Budde??Laugh Im well aware of that mate.
Report Joist January 23, 2012 12:37 PM GMT
Budd by that logic surely there is just as good/better argument to say that Cue Card should be favourite?
Report buddeliea January 23, 2012 12:43 PM GMT
Not at all,just an honest question.

As far as i am concerned CC is a major threat,but the form that would have CC in front of Alf is with FNS.
THe Sandown race was run at a slow pace,and FNS jumped really well.
Against CC he made a horrendus mistake.
Its not form that i personally take too literally mate.
Report thieveslikeus January 23, 2012 2:42 PM GMT
Horses running in Arkle after running in non-novice races - most obvious was Sybillin who won the VC Chase (it was then a handicap but a very high class one) by a clear margin.  The horse he beat went on to win that season's Champion Chase but Sybillin was beaten in the Arkle.    Struggling to think of another?
Report tyronesam January 23, 2012 10:28 PM GMT
have followed this thread with great interest since it began and was holding back until i watched him run at Ascot....having now watched race several times i am convinced this was a high class effort from a novice.... i cant locate the times where his jumping was ragged and went to pieces as some posters have stated....i thought he jumped very well throughout and despite steering a widish course throughout was bang there till between last two !!!i also thought horse was on a bit of a learning curve and was not overly punished when winning chance had gone....added to this i know barry was very keen on his chances and his horse was more fully exerted and PREPARED for this race !!!i think 7s is huge for this horse and Saturday last was by know means his REAL target this year....we all have our opinions and thats what this forum is all about....good luck to all
Report duncan idaho January 24, 2012 5:41 AM GMT
Quite possible the VicChandler Chase will turn out to have been a match-up of 3 Arkle Chase runner-ups, finishing in order of experience over fences!

I guess to fancy Al Ferof in the Arkle you have to believe that lack of experience did hold him back on Sat or that this year's Arkle will be inferior to the last 2 renewals.
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 7:38 AM GMT
Considering only his 3rd run,i think a lack of experince is pretty likely,especially with the amount of chases Somersby has had and to a lesser extent FR.
Also i imagine Somersby and FR have improved from their novice days as one would expect,and Alf should be still doing that.
Report festivalfanatic January 24, 2012 8:36 AM GMT
Read somewhere that Timeform were impressed with his effort, giving a rating of 161?, which I suspect will be very close to his OH rating. Latter would be the same as SS currently though I don't believe Timeform rated his effort against PC quite s highly.
Report duncan idaho January 24, 2012 8:59 AM GMT
inevitable timeform would give him improved rating as form of established grade 1 horses in VC Chase clearly higher than that you can achieve running against novices....but would Sprinter Sacre or Peddlers Cross have been no better than fourth on Saturday if they had taken part?? that's the $64mill question!
Report festivalfanatic January 24, 2012 10:27 AM GMT
Agree di

The person who told me to back him ew for the Supreme before his hurdles debut last year has also told me that he is considered superior to FR at home. All tittle tattle, of course!
Report duncan idaho January 24, 2012 3:32 PM GMT

It's been a similar tale of woe for supposed good-things in the Arkle, dating back to the Jimmy Fitzgerald-trained Sybillin in 1991, who ran out a ten-length winner of the VC Chase (then a handicap) at Ascot but flopped when 5/4-on at Cheltenham, finishing a remote third behind Travado (who'd been confined to novice chases).

Kadastrof split the top-class pair Ask Tom and Viking Flagship in the 1998 Game Spirit Chase, yet could manage only tenth when sent off favourite back in novice company in the Arkle next time. The ill-fated Don't Be Shy went one better in the 2006 Game Spirit, yet was a never-dangerous fifth back amongst his peers at Cheltenham.

So what does this trip down memory lane prove? In fact, most of the horses in question weren't flattered by their eye-catching efforts outside of novice company and actually ran respectably at Cheltenham, yet they were coming up against unexposed rivals from top yards who simply hadn't had the same opportunities to prove themselves at that sort of level. All of which could be used as evidence to tread carefully at Cheltenham with Al Ferof (c161), who became Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser seen out so far in 2011/12 following his highly creditable third behind Somersby (c168) and Finian's Rainbow (c166) in the latest renewal of the Victor Chandler at Ascot on Saturday.

However, in stark contrast to most of the other historical examples already mentioned, there hasn't been an over-reaction to Al Ferof's Ascot third - indeed, he's even drifted in some places as third favourite in the Arkle ante-post market - and it increasingly seems that his solid form claims for Cheltenham are being overlooked in favour of more visually-impressive performances by some of his rivals.

Chief amongst these, of course, is Sprinter Sacre (c154p) who has created an admittedly excellent impression when winning two small-field novice chases, but it bears repeating that he has five-and-a-quarter lengths to find with Al Ferof from last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

In our opinion, Al Ferof had the strongest form amongst the Arkle contenders even before the Ascot race and his third there has only strengthened that view.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 3:48 PM GMT
certainly think the 2012 Arle will be a stronger race than the 2011 version won by Captain Chris. I would not have run at Ascot as now having finished outside the top 2 in a chase, Al Ferof now has a trend to overcome that he hadn't before.

Anyway, for me Al Ferof failed to improve significantly from previous efforts - based on Topspeed. He got 132 for the VC race which is only 2 points higher than his debut and I would expect after 3 runs that he would be running much faster. Maybe left handed and at Cheltenham will see him improve but at this stage I still cannot see him winning the Arkle (as I said before Xmas on the Sprinter Sacre thread I have dismissed him from calculations)
Report fivebagken January 24, 2012 4:23 PM GMT
I don't think the horse knows he has that trend to overcome judorick. And if one of Somersby or FR had fallen, would Al Ferof enter your calculations given that he now meets that 'trend'?
Report sintonian January 24, 2012 4:28 PM GMT
Interesting historical analysis from Timeform. Thanks Duncan.
Report strontium January 24, 2012 4:54 PM GMT
5 - Laugh

It's a trend that has very little meaning once one gets in to novices running against non-novices in Grade 1 races. The trend may have value when considering novices who've only run in novice chases (most of which are uncompetetive and/or low grade). Judo's post seems to be example of people using trends as rules rather than, er, trends.
Report fivebagken January 24, 2012 5:03 PM GMT
I know, the first line of his post just made me chuckle. You can just imagine the conversation between owner and trainer -

Nicholls - 'How about Al Ferof for the VC Chase?'

Hales - 'Well it's a tempter, he could probably use the experience and there's nice prize money on offer, but I just have one reservation: it's that stat about Arkle winners not finishing outside the top two in chases... I wouldn't want to jeapordise his chances, as if he doesn't get inside the top two at Ascot we'll probably have to withdraw him. You know how insurmountable these trends are.'

Nicholls - LaughCryLaughCry
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 5:16 PM GMT
Cheers Stront,saved me the bother
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 5:18 PM GMT
Anyway,Judos dismissed him from calculations,so he cant winSad
Report sintonian January 24, 2012 5:23 PM GMT
In fairness to Judo he was against AF prior to his Ascot run anyway, based on his speed figures.
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 5:31 PM GMT
Yep,he said that ages ago,dismissed him.
Foolish to dismiss any of the top 4 imo,but each to their own.
Report duncan idaho January 24, 2012 5:57 PM GMT
nae bother, sint Wink
Report judorick January 24, 2012 6:14 PM GMT
Well you can all the take the p1ss as much as you want but I want as many factors in my favour when I have a bet rather than against me.

As such, as a backer of Al Ferof I would much rather he went to Cheltenham (instead of Ascot) for a novice event and won it impressively and improved his TS rating than going to Ascot and getting beat 5+ lengths and never really threatening the front two and finishing out of the frame. There is no doubt that historically Arkle winners never finished out of the first 3 over fences and many of them won on their last start. It may only be a minor negative but a negative it is.

To be fair, he had not produced a top class Topspeed rating prior to winning the Supreme Novice, in which he did record a very respectable 155, so he is certainly capable of producing dramatic improvement. Maybe a combination of spring time, faster going, a strong gallop and Cheltenham will allow him to do so.

At the moment though I have him 3rd best going in to the Arkle and I still think the winner comes from SS or PC.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 6:16 PM GMT
that of course should read  "never finished out of the first two over fences"

anyway, we shall see
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 6:46 PM GMT
Personally i would have PC at Kempton as more of a negative than AF at Ascot,but there yer go.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 7:01 PM GMT
the difference is:

PC clearly failed to give his running at Kempton

AF did give his running at Ascot as far as I can tell

and by the methods I choose to base decisions on the Ascot form is not good enough, whereas I remain convinced that PC can produce much higher form than he has shown so far
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 7:22 PM GMT
Agree re PC,but still a negative.

I think AF ran well enough at Ascot to suggest hes a big player in the Arkle.To run horses like that so close in only his 3rd race as a chaser i see as a positive,some useful ones in behind too.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 7:29 PM GMT
for me it limits what his potential peak level is going to be. He is yet to run faster than 132 on the Topspeed scale and that for me is not fast enough - I expect Arkle winners to have run faster than that.

Of course, it's only a punting angle and is not set in stone - he could still gag up in reality

it's just on the balance of probability I am convinced there are going to be faster horses in the line up
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
Their will be faster in the race,SS for one.
Dont mean they will beat AF in the Arkle though.
Report strontium January 24, 2012 7:37 PM GMT
This is going to go on until the race (and possibly after) isn't it chaps Devil
Report judorick January 24, 2012 7:44 PM GMT
probably strontium lol

can't wait myself! haha
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 7:46 PM GMT
looks like it
Report sintonian January 24, 2012 7:48 PM GMT
it is getting repeatative Stront.

I blame Budde tbh. LaughMischief
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 7:50 PM GMT
Its a race that simply gets us excited,we just cant help ourselves.

And whatever happens Im sure that we will act with dignity after the race.
Report buddeliea January 24, 2012 7:51 PM GMT
i dont mind SintLaugh
Report judorick January 24, 2012 7:51 PM GMT
just wait til SS runs next time

there will be another 50+ posts at least Cool
Report strontium January 24, 2012 7:53 PM GMT
wanna bet? Cool
Report strontium January 24, 2012 7:55 PM GMT
^(in reply to Budd's act with dignity post) - you guys are too fast!
Report judorick January 24, 2012 8:07 PM GMT
whatever betting decisions you make pre-race there will be no point worrying that you got it wrong or whatever afterwards

the good thing is that we have in play betting so after all this discussion we should all be well armed should we need to adjust our positions during the race (Al Ferof might hit a big price in running lie in the Supreme at which point I would have a few quid for example)
Report strontium January 24, 2012 8:13 PM GMT
Harder to do on course Judo Plain
Report shockster January 24, 2012 8:14 PM GMT
Too busy watching these BIG races to bet in play.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 8:14 PM GMT
I was in the Martin Pipe marquee when both Gloria Victris and Valiramix  died on the track. That was hard to take.
Report judorick January 24, 2012 8:17 PM GMT
oh yes I see

well if you are going to be there it will be much harder to bet in play of course. Remaining dignified should be a given however.
Report teaspoon January 27, 2012 10:01 AM GMT
Anyone see what tom segal says about al ferof in the weekender?
Report judorick January 27, 2012 4:10 PM GMT
no teaspoon

please tell
Report teaspoon January 27, 2012 5:08 PM GMT

Basically said in his oponion he wont win the arkle as he is not quick enough and needs further...
Report tyronesam January 27, 2012 5:15 PM GMT
dont think Captain Chris was ever regarded as a speed horse was he !!!!
Report judorick January 27, 2012 6:16 PM GMT
I am against the horse too as I have said and that is because he hasn't run fast enough over fences

not sure that means the same thing but yes I agree
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 27, 2012 6:24 PM GMT

speed horses do not win Arkles! Arkle winners have an abundance of stamina and the ability to sit in behind the speedsters of 2 miles and then stay on up the hill!

IMO of course Wink
Report buddeliea January 27, 2012 6:35 PM GMT
good for him,but think Sea the Stars has more idea to be honest!!
Report barnesy January 27, 2012 6:58 PM GMT
Segal's piece in full

THERE is always a big debate in sport about the worth of experience. In football they talk about players being ready to play for the national team whatever their age if they are good enough, whereas in the NFL the best quarterbacks have tended to spend some time as a back-up learning their trade and gaining experience.

At Ascot on Saturday the novice Al Ferof ran in the Victor Chandler against the seasoned two-mile chasers on only his third start and acquitted himself very well to finish third.

Afterwards his trainer Paul Nicholls talked about how Al Ferof will have learned the vital experience that will stand him in very good stead against the novices in the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

I have no doubt he’s right on that score and there is a good chance that Al Ferof will prove himself a better horse than he showed at Ascot, but to my way of thinking all Ascot told me was that Al Ferof is never going to be a top-notcher over two miles and if he couldn’t beat Somersby and his pals, even on his third chase start, then he has very little chance of winning the Arkle.

The figures boys will no doubt rate Al Ferof ’s run on Saturday as his best over fences and I’m sure it was, but I’m always looking at the Arkle winner proving himself as a potential Champion Chase winner the following season and there is no way I saw anything like the required speed or jumping alacrity in Al Ferof at Ascot.

Now that is not to say that he isn’t a very good horse – I’m pretty sure he is – but I just don’t think he can win an Arkle and that the only chance he has of being a real superstar chaser is when he goes up in trip.

If he is to win at the Cheltenham Festival this season, in my opinion, his best option would have to be the Jewson over an extra half-mile.

Interestingly, after the race Ruby Walsh suggested that he would be a great King George horse for the following season and that backs up my view that Al Ferof is a stayer who will struggle to beat Sprinter Sacre, Menorah or Peddlers Cross over two miles around Cheltenham.

In some seasons Al Ferof would definitely have had a good chance – the year My Way De Solzen won the Arkle, for example, or even perhaps last year when Captain Chris was successful – but this year’s two-mile novices look exceptional and Ascot showed us that Al Ferof wasn’t brilliant just yet.
Report judorick January 27, 2012 7:12 PM GMT

the Ascot race exposed Al Ferof's level and "not quite superstar at 2 miles" would sum it up
Report buddeliea January 27, 2012 7:15 PM GMT
still think Sea the Stars has more idea,even more after reading that!!
Report festivalfanatic January 27, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
The offical handicapper has rated him 160 after last week - same as PC and one pound behind SS. Another way of viewing Segal's comments is that AF has had to work extremely hard to earn this rating, the other 2 didn't.
Report buddeliea January 27, 2012 7:55 PM GMT
Seems a tad wrong to have PC on the same rating after 2 scooling sessions round Bangor,and a poor effort at Kempton,but then i aint really a ratings person.
Report Joist January 27, 2012 8:34 PM GMT
Pocket talking getting boring now imo
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 27, 2012 8:38 PM GMT
Who wants your opinion JOist? You are entitled of course, but pocket talking? LaughLaughLaugh Where do you get that from?
Report Joist January 27, 2012 8:39 PM GMT
The fact that you and Budd are Al Ferof backers and refuse to look at the horse objectively as a result!
Report denman85 January 27, 2012 8:50 PM GMT
joist Al fefof formline with somersby is rock solid, somersby was runner up in last yrs arkle only beaten by sizing europe who is the best 2 mile around, i wudnt be knocking al al ferof yet , in my eyes he aint done much wrong
Report denman85 January 27, 2012 8:51 PM GMT
2010's arkle*
Report Joist January 27, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
I'm not knocking him in the slightest, he has a chance but it doesn't take a genius to see that 2 miles is not this horses forte. I would totally agree with whoever said that the race will have to fall apart for him to win.
Report Joist January 27, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
I'm not knocking him in the slightest, he has a chance but it doesn't take a genius to see that 2 miles is not this horses forte. I would totally agree with whoever said that the race will have to fall apart for him to win.
Report denman85 January 27, 2012 9:01 PM GMT
well if that what u think it up 2 u! some just cant be educated!!
Report denman85 January 27, 2012 9:01 PM GMT
well if that what u think it up 2 u! some just cant be educated!!
Report Joist January 27, 2012 9:02 PM GMT
You think 2 miles looks like Al Ferof's best trip?
Report denman85 January 27, 2012 9:06 PM GMT
2miles or 2 miles around chelt?, think the hill will help AF , like it did in the supreme, obv his future will lie over further but that doesnt mean he cant win the arkle, captain chris won last yrs, and now he runs over 3 miles
Report Joist January 27, 2012 9:12 PM GMT
The Supreme point is an overplayed one I think; it helped Al Ferof as much as it hindered the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son who weren't able to handle it.

I never said he couldn't win it, but running against the sort of quality in opposition that is likely to be there in March, over a trip short of your best, is simply not positive whichever way you look at it. From an entirely uninvested perspective, I just cannot have Al Ferof having the legs of Sprinter/Pedders/Menorah and to an extent Cue Card. He might well be doing his best work at the end, but for all 4 plus probably others to all fall in a hole or not give their running is just not likely enough to make me want to back him.

Apologies about the shortness of the pocket talking comment, I didn't mean it in a nasty way. But the thread has got repetitive over the last few pages.
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 January 27, 2012 9:26 PM GMT
27 Jan 12 21:06
11 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 465 | Blogger: denman85's blog
2miles or 2 miles around chelt?, think the hill will help AF , like it did in the supreme, obv his future will lie over further but that doesnt mean he cant win the arkle, captain chris won last yrs, and now he runs over 3 miles

Spot on! CC did win last years, i stand by what i said earlier, very rare for a full on 2 miler to win Arkles and i am going to also include the supreme also now. They just, erm, don't. Same as you need a 2.5miler to win the Champ chs too. I will re-iterate, you need a horse that can lay up just behind the pace, and still have enough stamina to both get up the hill and sprint clear. Neither Sprinter Sacre, Cue Card, nor Menorah could do that to some degree last term!
Yes i am a backer of Alf, but i am also a backed of PC, CC, and perhaps an outsider that may come to the fore some time in Feb such as the prices i am on at, just to keep my options open and chances of bagging the winner slimmer as can be. I would however have PC priced a little bigger than he currently is in the market, (i would have him around about 7s) the odds currently on offer are a little short to me. Alf should be about 4/1 - 9/2 in my eyes with SS around the 7/2 mark.
Report The Rooster Booster January 27, 2012 9:33 PM GMT
If it jumps wins, but won't jump.....
Report judorick January 27, 2012 9:39 PM GMT
Menorah runs tomorrow and has to give weight to Kid Cassidy - can't see him winning
Report tomdeane January 27, 2012 11:23 PM GMT
I've been silent on this thread for a while now, so here are my further developed thoughts (for what they're worth).

Always been a little worried that Al Ferof does not have the toe to win a good Arkle and still have that concern. For that reason I wouldn't back him but I do respect him and thought his VC effort was very good indeed.

This ongoing debate about whether you need to be a speed horse or a stayer is something of a moot point I feel. It's less to do with this and more to do with innate class. Classy two milers win the race because speed is the most important component in virtually any race. When the overall quality is middling to below-par, the value of stamina is even greater than normal, which is why a lot of two and a half milers have won the race in recent years. The perfect combination is of course to have a damned good two-miler who stays further, and that doesn't happen very often (Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop etc).

In an ordinary year I would say Sprinter was home and hosed because he is plainly a very good horse and a very fast two-miler, but as there are other fast horses who might very well stay better in this year's race, I am still inclined to suspect 5/2 is not great value. Peddlers Cross is the most obvious choice but I am loathe to back any horse after a disappointing run that supposedly resulted in mystery physical problems coming to light (can we trust that, and if so, will he be right on the day)?

I think the prices are now almost right, but still feel Cue Card and Menorah can outrun their odds given a fair run race. I think both stay as well as Al Ferof but both have more speed to burn and the ability to use some tactical pace to grab a position when required.
Report tomdeane January 27, 2012 11:25 PM GMT
PS: Judorick, I know you are a serial Menorah doubter but would be surprised if he can't give 7lb to Kid Cassidy and win easily enough tomorrow. If he can't, I'd probably discount him (providing there are no obvious mitigating circumstances).
Report judorick January 27, 2012 11:32 PM GMT
we shall see tom

I think Kid Cassidy will win - simply enough
Report buddeliea January 28, 2012 7:24 AM GMT
Joist,if you read my comments you will see that not once have i dismissed any of the 4 candidates that i consider have a serious chance of winning the Arkle.Thats cos i think they all can win the race given how the race may be run and the improvement they may be capable of.
Yes,i have been bullish about AF,but thats cos i see him as a Cheltenham horse and i think he has enough attributes to be a serious Arkle candidate,thats why i backed him.
Ive see nothing since this season to say he cannot win the Arkle,he may not of course,one of the others,maybe more, could be better,but hes in with a fair shout imo.To me he has shown many qualities that have enabled others to win the race before,whether thats good enough this year,i dont know,i hope so,but i do realise it may not be.

It annoys me a tad to hear others dismissing him,so i put my point across.
One could say that by dismissing him,that thats pocket talk as they have backed something else,the same as sticking up for him in my book.
Or one could say that all we are doing is swapping opinions and trying to work the race out.Thats what i always come on here for.
Anyway i notice you took your pocket talk comment back - good,cos my comments certainly are never meant that way.
Report sintonian January 28, 2012 10:02 AM GMT
Budde, thing is anytime someone expresss doubts about AF you comeback with a defense and the whole thing just becomes repeatative.
Report sintonian January 28, 2012 10:08 AM GMT
denman85 Date Joined: 11 Jan 11
Add contact | Send message When: 27 Jan 12 21:01 Joined: Date Joined: 11 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 465 | Blogger: denman85's blog
well if that what u think it up 2 u! some just cant be educated!!

Perhaps you could do with some education yourself Denman. Have you seen the record of the favourites in this race the last 10 years? The majority of them had stamina in abundance and did not win the race.
Report sintonian January 28, 2012 10:12 AM GMT
barnesy Date Joined: 24 Jun 05
Add contact | Send message When: 25 Jan 12 20:09 Joined: Date Joined: 24 Jun 05 | Topic/replies: 86 | Blogger: barnesy's blog
Medermit, Captain Cee Bee, Tatenen, Noland, Fair Along, Racing Demon, War of Attrition and Thisthatandtother the last eight beaten favs. Wouldn't describe any of these as 'flashy' with the possible exception of Tatenen. In fact time has proven the Arkle trip to be on the sharp side for all of them barring Cee Bee.

Plenty of stamina amongst that lot. No winners.

Each Arkle is different. Sticking rigidly to the stamina argument is NOT being objective.
Report buddeliea January 28, 2012 10:17 AM GMT
Perhaps people should stop repeatedly knocking the horse then,and some are totally dismissing him .
Not once have i knocked PC,SS OR CC,and i certainly would not dismiss any of them.
This is an Al Ferof thread,and therefore if i feel i want to say something re the horse,i will,especially if i think it relevant to the current topic being discussed.
In this instance it was reacting to Tom Segals comments.
Of course things get repeated,that will happen,just like the comment that AF aint quick enough,that may or may not be true come the day,but its been said countless times on here,and more than once by the same people.

I will take your point though,im not here to ruin a thread.
Report Tory January 28, 2012 11:10 AM GMT
I was in the Peddlers camp until it was announced yesterday that he will most likely head straight to Chelt and I just cant back him without another run or graded race win for the season.

Sprinter Sacre could well be the best thing since sliced bread but i went in on Al Ferof yesterday(only small at this stage) as he hits all of the stats. Big thing for me is that he has better course form compared to Sprinter.

He may well get done for toe, and Peddlers who also has good course form could turn up on the day in tip top shape, but I feel that Al Ferof is an each way banker and at 7.4 as a starting point for backing in the race, i thought it represented very good value.

Beauty of betfair is that if you change your mind, and the odds arent too different, you can reverse your decision.
Report sintonian January 28, 2012 11:11 AM GMT
It's percevied as a ''knock'' by his backers, Budde.
Report sintonian January 28, 2012 11:28 AM GMT
IMO. LaughCool
Report buddeliea January 28, 2012 11:50 AM GMT
Think this race has got to me,i shall attempt to chill a tad!!
Report denman85 January 28, 2012 12:52 PM GMT
oh yeh sint, i forgor last yrs winner captain chris is a total speed horse and wud only ever run at 2 milesConfused
Report denman85 January 28, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
oh no hes running today over 3m 1, only 2 mile speed horses win this race!
Report judorick January 28, 2012 2:02 PM GMT
shame Menorah fell, we didn't learn anything, although I backed the winner as I said
Report tomdeane January 28, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
Very disappointing that he doesn't seem able to learn to jump. What now? Another couple of races before Cheltenham? Possibility he may skip the race entirely?
Report judorick January 28, 2012 5:40 PM GMT
personally I think Aintree would suit him so I would be looking through the program book to get 2 or 3 runs in before Aintree and forget the Festival now
Report sintonian January 28, 2012 7:45 PM GMT
that is not what people are saying Denman. Learn how to read mate.

FFS, do you know, I shall leave this thread aswell because it is doing my phucking nut in.
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