Cheltenham Festival
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AL FEROF......??
AL FEROF......??
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True Budd, he's not champion trainer for nothing.
At the moment I'd probably have a couple ahead of Al Ferof in the Arkle (sorry Budd), but if he can win the VC then that would be a mighty performance for a novice to be on the winners board with horses like Master Minded, Twist Magic and Well Chief; and would put him right at the forefront in the Arkle. |
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Pretty sure the trainers championship is the main reason for the VC entry.
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not sure thats the case,the horse is more important than that,particularly for the owner.They aint gonna jeopardise the horse for a better chance of winning the trainers title,no way.
Chief, hes already at the forefront in the Arkle as far as im concerned. Mark my words mate,this horse is a Cheltenham horse,no mistake.No problem with people preferring the flashy types,they may be right to,but any horse that takes on AL Ferof at Cheltenham best be right on its game!! |
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Tomorrows Racing Post front page says and i quote.... Al Ferof could be surprise Champion Chase contender
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Not surprised Stormey. He has no other challenger.
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From recollection, John Hales is not normally a reckless owner, they said they were worried about his jumping (although I like it) because he fell in a point and over timber. Its only 14 months ago that he almost ran out at cheltenham, largely due to greeness. I think the VC race and the QMCC tilt would be foolish in the extreme, and I can only imagine it would be because they do not fancy taking on Sprinter or they want a bigger pot (for various and obvious reasons).
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Regarding his lack of horses for the QMCC, Master Minded was surely going for the Ryanair anyway this yr?
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Can see Kauto Stone ending up in the QM
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Too slow. Got creamed by Sizing Europe. Ryaniar horse all over.
I can't see Nicholls pi$$ing off Hales who's one of his major and long-standing owners but who's very sporting - he buys his horses to run. My guess is the VC is as good a prep race for the Arkle as they'll get, so why not run the horse. He'll be up against decent but unexceptional older horses, he won't be bottomed and it should put him spot on for the novice chase at the Feastival. AF may well have an entry for the QMCC but that means little at this stage - it's cheap and worth having of BZ and/or SE have a set back. |
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Yeh,think thats about right Stront,an entry in case.They aint gonna be worried about another novice and then take on the best 2 milers around!! Are they???
Think its a race that simply fits in with his prep and like you say it should not bottom him and will hopefully get him spot on for March. Mind you i did say i would back him in whatever race he ends up in at Chelt,so i may have to chuck a few bob at the QM,just in case!! |
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Nicholls has to be using the VC Chase as a prep, as mentioned by posters below. No way,imo, will he be sending him to this race with the expectation of winning. I suspect they will be happy with a top 3 or 4 finish. He'll get more prize money for that than winning a novice chase somewhere under a penalty.
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absolute joke if any1 thinks al ferof wud stand any chance against sizing europe~!
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8/1 for the Champion Chase with Ladbrokes. Crikey!
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bl00dy ridiculous!!
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Starting to panic Budd?
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If Al Ferof goes for CC, what would PFN run in the Arkle? Maybe Silviniaco Conti could drop back in trip?
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I thought John Hales nearly gave up owning horses aafter the deaths of One Man and Granit Jack, yet here he is thinking about running a novice in the fastest run NH chase of the season.
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My thoughts exactly Uncle - not an option I would pursue for a horse they have said could be a Gold Cup horse one day (though good luck to connections).
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I am a bit Stront,yeh.
Never saw this coming,antepost is always a risk,but a non runner cos of this would be bl00dy hard to take!! Still think i will be ok though. |
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IF HE RUNS IN QM NEEDS GOOD TO BE AT BEST IM HAPPY WITH 90 TO WIN 20 TO PLACE WITH BETFAIR. FANCY FLAT OUT MORE COULD BE ANY THING CHASING TIME WILL TELL.
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Nicholls is just covering bases. I don't honestly believe the CC is number one option but if he runs well in/wins the Victor Chandler and BZ or SE don't make it on the day, they may have a cut at it. Maybe Ruby has told him it will be easier to beat one of these 2 than the mighty Sprinter!
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Has anyone actually seen or heard any quotes from connections re AFerof in the last few days??
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Think there may have been something in today's RP, bud.
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EXCITING novice chaser Al Ferof was on Thursday introduced as Ladbrokes'joint 8-1 fourth-favourite for the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
The firm reacted to the news in Thursday's Racing Post, where owner John Hales revealed that last year’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, who will step out of novice company for the first time in the Victor Chandler Chase on January 21, could bypass the Arkle Chase in favour of the Champion. “We’ve put him in at 8-1 behind the two established chasers [Sizing Europe and Big Zeb] and Finians Rainbow as that’s where we think he is at the moment. "We’ve afforded the entry a great deal of respect as it does not strike us as tilting at windmills. We’re also non-runner no-bet on the race and that has to be factored in," said Ladbrokes spokesman David Williams. Paddy Power stuck their head above the parapet by offering a standout 14-1, while Coral, who eased the Paul Nicholls-trained seven-year-old to 7-1 (from 5-1) for the Arkle, go 10-1 for the Champion Chase. Hope they don't Budd for your sake as know you are all over the horse but it doesn't look good. Be lucky. |
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yeh,the owner quoted as saying they may go for the QM,just seen it,cheers stake.
I would like to hear what Nicholls or Walsh have to say on the subject. |
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Thanks Harry.
Tell you what,i have had contless antepost bets over the years and had good and bad results like us all,and non runners of course,and always take it on the chin-thats antepost. But this would be one of the hardest to take i reckon. Oh well,lets wait and see,nothing definite yet. |
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I said this after last years festival. DON'T BET ANTE POST AFTER THE TURN OF THE YEAR. Nothing to be gained. You will get just about the same price on the day.
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Well i had my bet way back,so that dont apply.
But thanks anyway. |
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Think this is all b0llocks tbh. Would be very surprised if they went QMCC. Not something Nicholls usually entertains. He is too shrewd for that.
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God,i hope you're right mate.
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Just matched at 9.2...disgusting pal..
Yes I have had a few myself but agree this one would be awful, as it was never talked of..at least with Grand Cruise they had made noises about it...have you backed it on exchange because at least if you have, you may get out saturday in running? One thing I would say budd is John Hales is quite honest and I would say if he has given it at entry, he is taking the race very seriously...I don't want to compound the pain pal but I would take this very seriously and if you are on on the exchange at least you could lay off saturday in the run and live to fight another day... Its a brutal game at times... |
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im on al ferof for the arkle too. not sure how i want him to run in the VC.obviously want him to run well but if he runs too well he might be re-directed to the QM .
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itb is that,but we still love it!!
backed it with one of the bookies,no get out. |
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willie the milk=
"I said this after last years festival. DON'T BET ANTE POST AFTER THE TURN OF THE YEAR. Nothing to be gained. You will get just about the same price on the day" well what about al ferof and captain chris last year alferof was 28/1 won 10/1 captain chris 16/1 won 6/1 both antepost prices availible end jan/ begin feb last year |
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Yes Denman and you must have thrown the CC voucher away. They only decided at the last minute. That's my point. You don't need the stress for the sake of a few points, and just remember the average winning price is usually about 10s
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I'm in the same boat, all over Al Ferof, luckily I was for the Supreme so it doesn't owe me anything. I wasn't confident last year though and was one of only a few going mad in the best mate stand. If I were connections i'd go for the arkle, as you can never go back. Same with Grand Crus for the RSA. You can't swerve the arkle due to a favourite, only 3 favourites have won in the last 20 years and he's beaten that favourite at Cheltenham, at the festival. Al Ferof will be there for the Arkle. Look at Tingle Crrek day at Sandown, Al Ferof was 3 seconds slower that Sizing Europe over same distance. Madness for them to go for QMCC.
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There is no money waiting to back AF in the VCChase at present. The race is 21st Jan, over 2 weeks away, so plenty of time for connections to change their minds yet.
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Denman, I basically agree with you but your examples were both Pricewise which has a big big effect on the prices. There's arguably less of a difference for horses that aren't put up by him or one of the major tipping services.
There are also races where one essentially has no choice to bet late - Triumph, NH Chase, Foxhunters for example. |
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I would be very surprised if he was to line up in the champion chase
You have to respect they have made an entry I suppose, but it's not in nicholls' style to throw a novice in the C.C |
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This is one of 3 things.
a. Nicholls playing games as he did with Kauto Star whether he would run in the King George psyching the Long Run Henderson team. Same again replace Kauto Star and Long Run with Al Ferof and Sprinter Sacre again psyching Henderson in the lead up. b. Geraghty has let Walsh know the inside line on Sprinter Sacre and Nicholls doesnt fancy taking him on. c. Hales wants a runner with a chance in the Queen Mother. Very likely to be a. It worked well for the King George why not rinse and repeat. |