Cheltenham Festival
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Quito De La Roque ( Gold Cup 2012 )
Quito De La Roque ( Gold Cup 2012 )
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Replies: 130
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U see Davys interview on atr last week, all davy cares about is his %
He would nt be willin to lose it imo unless he had an agreement with Mr O Leary b4 hand to compensate him  |
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Boost for form of Quito today re Sarando!
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echo the thoughts of long run not being beatable.
the recent exploits of kauto star and best mate have disguised the fact that it's awfully hard to win a gold cup more than once. multiple gold cup winners are a rare breed indeed. love this horse, really solid and aintree form was boosted today by the second winning at carlisle. |
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sorry meant "echo the thoughts of long-run not being unbeatable"
although perhaps it was a freudian slip  |
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how does sarando beating aikman and cross kennon equate to a realistic form boost for quito re: gold cup?.....also if sarando got beat it would have meant little
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Not a bad bet at 20/1 each way, cant help thinking that on goodish ground he would be outpaced and run on for 3rd or 4th.
If it came up a bog however his chance would improve massively. |
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bit of a plodder for me!!!
dont give him much chance of winning a GC! |
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I'm not convinced he's got the pace to win a Gold Cup...he'd be left with too much to do turning for home, and while Saturday was an amazing performance to win the way he did, horses in the Gold Cup won't be stopping the way Sizing Europe did.
I'd send him to the National. Course form, will stay the trip, will have to lug top weight around no doubt about that, but his style suggests you could tie him to a bus and he'd still get home! |
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made for the welsh national isn't he......apart from the number of back handers he might need.
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Good shout!
I'm going to believe that come Cheltenham & Aintree, deals will be done with jockey's in that if they have to break the rules to get a horse home, they'll do so knowing they'll be paid a bonus to compensate their loss of earnings during a ban! |
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Bit early in his Career to be considering the National ffs,he was only a novice last season!!
also dwm767 how does he have course form? The national Course and the Mildmay course couldnt be any different!! |
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i keep reading that Quito is a plodder,bit confused by that to be honest.He has won his last 5 races over 3m i believe,2 of which were on good ground and i think one of them was a grade 1. That aint plodding in my book.
I can only think that cos he got outpaced by 2 faster horses at shorter distances,one of which is the reigning Ch 2 miler,then people think hes a plodder.And it was his first race this season. If thats the case i find it unfair on the horse,and quiet frankly a tad laughable. |
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Always prominent, jumped slightly left throughout, left in front 11th, ridden clear entering straight, kept on well from last (op 3/1 tchd 9/2)
Thats his Grade 1,which he won by 14l. That dont describe a plodder to me. |
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think this horse is good in his own rite , but i feel hes a bit of a plodder, which dont win gold cups! hahah
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buddeliea
08 Nov 11 17:44 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 4,155 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog i keep reading that Quito is a plodder,bit confused by that to be honest.He has won his last 5 races over 3m i believe,2 of which were on good ground and i think one of them was a grade 1. That aint plodding in my book. I can only think that cos he got outpaced by 2 faster horses at shorter distances,one of which is the reigning Ch 2 miler,then people think hes a plodder.And it was his first race this season. If thats the case i find it unfair on the horse,and quiet frankly a tad laughable. Excellent post bud,agree 100%,particularly your point about him been outsped by a champion chase winner |
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Fair point OnTheSnaff, remissive of me.
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He also got outpaced in last years Fort Laney at Leopordstown, (race won by Bostons Angel, you can check it out on ATR). He was staying on well at the finish but had just left himself with too much to do so it's not like Down Royal was a once off.
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Down Royal first run of season, and after a publicised setback, and running against the 2m champion chaser. I'd pretty much have expected that. His form since the Fort Laney might suggest he's improved a fair bit.
Final run last season, didn't look particularly one paced to me. Time will tell I guess. |
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Quiet like horses that are staying on well in a Gold Cup,its a 3m 2f race round Cheltenham.Anyway I dont imagine too many going off leaving him for dead in that race.
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QDLR is a thorugh stayer imo. But this is what you want in 3m chases on soft ground in Ireland.
But this has been a characterisitc in many of his races. Look at his run when he beat Royal De La Thinte. Coming off the bend he looked beaten but rallied and stayed on strongly. |
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There is one piece of form that absolutlely shows up the strong preference for soft ground the horse needs to show his best and its a race that people are pointing to, to show the horse in a positive light!!...well as far as competing at gold cup level i disagree.
His run at aintree that had him scrapping to beat sarando a head and golan way another couple of lengths behind is a country mile below gold cup form...if you watch the race he travelled about 4 or 5 lengths behind the pace and although he wasn't strongly pressed to maintain that position, you got the impression that any quicker and he'd have been in trouble, and this is a golan way pace not a long run pace. In the end his raw ability and lack of competition enabled him to get home but on quicker ground in this race i believe his performance was a long way off what he'd show on slower ground.But if you want to point to that run on quicker ground as a positive you can't ignore the actual form line itself with him struggling to beat inferior horses....and consequently you have to relate that to gold cup opposition in only a negative light. As for last saturday, yes he was outpaced by the champion chaser but sizing wasn't running at champion chase pace was he and anyway, he was also outpaced by midnight chase too wasn't he, who had laid up with sizing for much of the race and although by four out he was absolutley knackered when quito pretty much caught him it still took him another two fences before he finally got past. But as i said it really is that aintree line of form on quicker ground that really shows the gulf between the likes of him and long run. |
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Of course the gulf is there hes a novice or was,but that gulf could well be a lot different come March.
The extra 2 furlongs and Cheltenham will imo suit him down to the ground,and if hes running on strongly the leaders need to be a fair way in front,they may be but then again maybe not. The race the other day which a lot keep referring to was 2 furlongs less at Down Royal,totally different to Cheltenham Gold Cup conditions and we dont even know how fit he was!! Look,we all know about Long Run,but i aint for one minute gonna stop looking for other candidates,and imo Quito could well be one. |
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More decorated horses have struggled just as much to beat inferior rivals at Aintree such as Imperial Commander, Denman and even Kauto. Granted, these runs have come after exploits in a Gold Cup but you can't tell me that 3m round Aintree is anything near as stamina sapping as a 3 1/4 mile Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
I think Quito will be fine and is bound to be involved granted an honest gallop and a bit of juice in the ground. He wasn't fully wound up at Down Royal and you could see after they jumped the last that Davy Russell was merely keeping him within striking distance as once he really went for him he picked up and in the end won cosily. The Sarando win (as pointed out above) has to be considered a boost of sorts also as before the Aintree Grade 2 that one's form didn't really stack up amazingly and his proximity was seen to be detrimental to the form. But he did it really nicely in a race that has thrown up a few classy sorts in the past. Not saying I fancy him strongly for the big one, but just because we have been treated to some really special staying chasers in recent years doesn't mean we should write one off who is an old fashioned type. Especially when he has won 7 of his last 8 including a Grade 2 on a speed track and a Grade 1 on quickish ground by 14 lengths! Will have been a while since Ireland have had such a genuine contender and to be fair, they are due one. |
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i'll stand by what i said above and provided pandorama stays sound i would be disappointed if he doesn't see off quito in ireland this winter.....quito just screams out dour stayer to me....in his races he always looks to be on the verge of being in a spot of trouble on soft ground...late on his undoubted class sees him through, so far at least although you could argue that aside from last time , the one time he ran against a horse that could be considered a genuine gold cup prospect in bostons angel he got beat
Look at pandorama on the other hand , another soft ground horse but one that travels far more fluently through his races but even with him at the festival on quicker ground....absolutely mullered. The sarando run does show the inadequecies in the horse, forget long run even....there would be a number of 3 mile quick ground horses that would have had quito struggling in that race. |
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duffy - someone is insisting Pandorama is injured on the thread about horses out for the season.
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gutted
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joci
you did advise treating with caution...should have listened....that's my assault on the irish races up the swanee  |
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^ttf
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I've not actually seen any confirmation of this yet though, so there may still be hope for you.
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Sir Arry,
Ireland have a few Gold Cup contenders this season and they could well be the biggest threat to Long Run. Quito,Bostons,Jessies and Quel all in with chances in my view. |
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i was thinking the same joci....that post went up on sunday....the stable would have had all day yesterday to announce it but i can't find anything at all.
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bud
relaxed today?  |
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yes thanks mate |
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Gutted about pandorama...noel meade....
"At this stage, i'd say that he won't run this season as i am a little bit worried about him. I just don't think it is worth the risk. It is a blow alright and i suppose if we can get him back for next year, that is probably all we can hope for". |
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Quito will be 2nd or 3rd fav after xmas after he wins, still decent value e/w at 16s for Gold Cup?
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Quito missed last years festival because they felt he was better on a flat track. Thats my main concern, as well him needing to improve this year.
He certainly has a Grade 1 engine. |
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Agree but not too many alternatives to Long Run, if it was soft was and starts wont be out of frame?
At 16s at moment, on at bit, more could be shake up bad fav? |
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It will be very interesting to see what Paul Nicholls does with Kauto Stone. He has mentioned the Ryan Air, which is most likely. However he has an entry for the Gold Cup and won the same Grade 1 race in France that Long Run did (22f on very soft ground as a 4yr old).
He jumped very well at Down Patrick and should stay. The big issue with him is he looks like he is best on a right handed track, but that didnt stop his half brother win the Gold Cup twice!! His next race is the John Durkan, a right handed track on soft ground is perfect. Im expecting him to win that. Should get around 3 maybe 4/1 if Joncol pitches up.... That is the bet of the season so far!!! |
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Really? Whats the opposition??
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