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I will start the ball rolling......
Peddlers Cross 8-1 Arkle
I can see him going off around 2-1 Fav on the day assuming everything goes to plan beforehand.
Already won a point to point
2nd in a Champion Hurdle and rated 170 in that sphere.
Trained in my opinion by a master at getting them right for the big day.
Feel free to add others......
Peddlers Cross 8-1 Arkle
I can see him going off around 2-1 Fav on the day assuming everything goes to plan beforehand.
Already won a point to point
2nd in a Champion Hurdle and rated 170 in that sphere.
Trained in my opinion by a master at getting them right for the big day.
Feel free to add others......
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Sprinter Sacre against yours 
Power, Pace, Jumping. Designed for 2m chasing.
Peddlers won't be as good a chaser as hurdler.
Power, Pace, Jumping. Designed for 2m chasing.
Peddlers won't be as good a chaser as hurdler.
rhinestone
10 Aug 11 21:32 Joined: 01 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 732 | Blogger: rhinestone's blog
Sprinter Sacre against yours
Power, Pace, Jumping. Designed for 2m chasing.
Peddlers won't be as good a chaser as hurdler.
Head in Hands Man Required,Why wont he be a better Chaser???
Bred and Built for Chasing
10 Aug 11 21:32 Joined: 01 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 732 | Blogger: rhinestone's blog
Sprinter Sacre against yours
Power, Pace, Jumping. Designed for 2m chasing.
Peddlers won't be as good a chaser as hurdler.
Head in Hands Man Required,Why wont he be a better Chaser???
Bred and Built for Chasing
OnTheSnaff
Head in Hands Man Required,Why wont he be a better Chaser???
Bred and Built for Chasing
Are you sure? Have you looked at his breeding?
Have you looked at his build? Looks a very neat horse to me at the moment.
He's going to do very well to be 170+ over fences.
It's very easy to pick the best 'sexy, 2nd in a Champion Hurdle' horse to be a chaser.
Don't get me wrong I really like him...
Head in Hands Man Required,Why wont he be a better Chaser???
Bred and Built for Chasing
Are you sure? Have you looked at his breeding?
Have you looked at his build? Looks a very neat horse to me at the moment.
He's going to do very well to be 170+ over fences.
It's very easy to pick the best 'sexy, 2nd in a Champion Hurdle' horse to be a chaser.
Don't get me wrong I really like him...
Couple of points id like to make.
1. The top rated hurdler to run in the Arkle has a very good record and no horse will be higher rated.
2. Finians Rainbow was runner up this year and was a good few lengths behind Peddlers in the Neptune.
Anyway we are going off topic a bit.The fact is in my opinion that if Peddlers gets to the Arkle fit and well i expect him to be a strong fav.
1. The top rated hurdler to run in the Arkle has a very good record and no horse will be higher rated.
2. Finians Rainbow was runner up this year and was a good few lengths behind Peddlers in the Neptune.
Anyway we are going off topic a bit.The fact is in my opinion that if Peddlers gets to the Arkle fit and well i expect him to be a strong fav.
only stating that he jumps fences while the henderson horse is all class and potential,has he won a p2p?im not sure he has but im prepared to be corrected if anyone knows different?
thanks stormey,il have to look it up.it really should be a great arkle...the two you boys are keen on are major players for sure.
il throw in thousand stars[who i thought would go chasing last year,but was rewarded with a decent hurdling campaign],al ferof,sam winner,smad place,vino grigio,agean dawn and emme lavelles horse[name escapes me atm]
il throw in thousand stars[who i thought would go chasing last year,but was rewarded with a decent hurdling campaign],al ferof,sam winner,smad place,vino grigio,agean dawn and emme lavelles horse[name escapes me atm]
Arkle is a tricky race to work out before we have seen them jump a fence.I took a bit of a risk last season on Finians,but then Geraghty had said he was schooling really well and he was 30 odd on here.
To talk about horses at single figures at this stage as being value, without beeing seen jumping a fence, aint for me.
To talk about horses at single figures at this stage as being value, without beeing seen jumping a fence, aint for me.
TWeedle - do you mean Toca Ferro?
Not sure about Sam Winner - i think he may need 4 miles! I know this yrs Arkle winner was a dour stayer, but I think Al Ferof will want further than 2 as well.
Not sure about Sam Winner - i think he may need 4 miles! I know this yrs Arkle winner was a dour stayer, but I think Al Ferof will want further than 2 as well.
budd- the point of the thread is to try to pinpoint horses that could be very well priced now compared to what there sp is.
My take on it is that if Peddlers wins 2 or 3 novice chases then heads to the Arkle he will be much shorter than 8s pure and simple.
Knowing how horses get hyped up and looking at the Champion Chase market i can even see a scenario where the press are screaming run him in that race!!!
Just my opinion...
My take on it is that if Peddlers wins 2 or 3 novice chases then heads to the Arkle he will be much shorter than 8s pure and simple.
Knowing how horses get hyped up and looking at the Champion Chase market i can even see a scenario where the press are screaming run him in that race!!!
Just my opinion...
Another horse that springs to mind as overpriced to me is Oscars Well for the Champion Hurdle.
Travels like a class horse to my eyes and i think he hit the front way too soon in the Neptune then the mistake at the last ended any chance he had.
20-1 could look very big next March
Travels like a class horse to my eyes and i think he hit the front way too soon in the Neptune then the mistake at the last ended any chance he had.
20-1 could look very big next March
See what you say stormey,sorry mate,did not mean to offend.
My take on the Arkle or RSA is that i would not take 8's at this stage for a horse i have not seen jump a fence.
Yes if he starts off jumping fences well and winning races he will no doubt shorten,especially with his hurdle form,but for me i would look elsewhere for the value. Its possible he may start off a bit erratic and lengthen.
Oscars well in the CH as you said above is more like my idea of a value horse.
I do respect your opinion mate,and i am a big fan of Peddlers,and will watch him with great interest,but i wont back him till i have seen him jump,what price would he be after that if he jumped well??
My take on the Arkle or RSA is that i would not take 8's at this stage for a horse i have not seen jump a fence.
Yes if he starts off jumping fences well and winning races he will no doubt shorten,especially with his hurdle form,but for me i would look elsewhere for the value. Its possible he may start off a bit erratic and lengthen.
Oscars well in the CH as you said above is more like my idea of a value horse.
I do respect your opinion mate,and i am a big fan of Peddlers,and will watch him with great interest,but i wont back him till i have seen him jump,what price would he be after that if he jumped well??
rhinestone,i cannot belive what im reading,have you seen peddlers cross in the flesh???
He's every bit a chaser in the making,anything he achieved over hurdles was a huge bonus,im amazed he done as well as he did over hurdles to be honest,i will be amazed if he's not been talked about as a Gold Cup horse in the coming seasons
He's every bit a chaser in the making,anything he achieved over hurdles was a huge bonus,im amazed he done as well as he did over hurdles to be honest,i will be amazed if he's not been talked about as a Gold Cup horse in the coming seasons
I will be amazed if Oscar Whiskey aint a fair bit shorter price should he line up in the WH.
You seem very confident he's going to be better over fences than hurdles OnTheSnaff. I don't think he will, it's no big deal.
Have you backed him for the Arkle yet?
Have you backed him for the Arkle yet?
Ghiazo at 25/1 for the Queen Mother is easily the most obvious one,not going to do a big write up but i have no doubts that he will be favorite on the day so 25/1 now is huge
i do indeed rhinestone,but not until he steps up to 3mile plus,no i havent backed him for the arkle,im not an ante post man,anyway we will find out in time if he'll be much use over the bigger obstacles,goodluck
Really Formman?? From what i have seen from Ghizao he looks to be behind Finians,and he in turn is a fair way behind Sizing imo.Its likely he will start shorter than 25 should he turn up,but no way will he be shorter than SE.
How about Time for Rupert?? 15 on here could look big on the day.Ignore his RSA run where he burst blood vessel,he will be single figures i reckon should he run in the Gold Cup.
Like Bostons Angel as well but i do seem to be in a minority as regards him.
Like Bostons Angel as well but i do seem to be in a minority as regards him.
TFR is an interesting one - his form is solid. He put up a good effort in a poor RSA when breaking a blood vessel. Before that he'd beaten Chicago Grey easily, Quinz, Hels Bay, RDS. He should improve still and will stay all day. I suspect he may not be quite good enough, but he's interesting.
Ghizao is an interesting one as well. Arguably unlucky at AIntree after an error 2 out (maybe Finians was over the top) and made a similar hideous error in the Arkle. I like FR for teh QMCC but Ghizao on fom is too big IMO.
Ghizao is an interesting one as well. Arguably unlucky at AIntree after an error 2 out (maybe Finians was over the top) and made a similar hideous error in the Arkle. I like FR for teh QMCC but Ghizao on fom is too big IMO.
sizing europe 5/1
big zeb 7/1
finians rainbow 10/1
captain chris 12/1
noble prince 14/1
master minded 16/1
realt dubh 20/1
GHIZAO 25/1
flat out 33/1
Its down to many factors budd
firstly,the fav Sizing Europe will not be defending his crown,the owners are 100% adamant that he is being trained for the gold cup this season and its all they care about-FACT
2nd favorite Big Zeb will be an 11 yo so you can forget about him
Captain chris will probably be stepped up in trip and not show up in the race,everything fell right for him in the arkle,but i just dont think he has the pace to cope with some of these over 2m
noble prince,not good enough,needs further,will not run
Master Minded,definatly wont run over 2m again,not quick enough anymore,will be aimed elsewhere
realt dubh,like captain chris and nobel prince,needs a step up in trip,not good enough or fast enough for this race,probably wont run
the only unknowen is if Flat Out recovers from injury and gets back to a high level,but have covered with him at 33/1
That just leaves a match between Finians 10/1 and Ghizao 25/1 and imo think Ghizao was very unluck not to have won the 2m race at both chelters and anitree,would have definatly beat finians at aintree but for his mistake 2 out and it was far worse mistake a chelters when going as good as any,there is no way he was going to recover from that and think he did amazing to still produce what he did after that error,i like both horses and think they were at a similar level last season,but would give Ghizao the edge despite official results,think he has much more room for improvement being a huge scopey horse and will come on a ton next year,whereas finians is tiny and will continue at a similar level,
as long as he stays fit and well i would be very confident about Ghizao for the Queen Mother,
big zeb 7/1
finians rainbow 10/1
captain chris 12/1
noble prince 14/1
master minded 16/1
realt dubh 20/1
GHIZAO 25/1
flat out 33/1
Its down to many factors budd
firstly,the fav Sizing Europe will not be defending his crown,the owners are 100% adamant that he is being trained for the gold cup this season and its all they care about-FACT
2nd favorite Big Zeb will be an 11 yo so you can forget about him
Captain chris will probably be stepped up in trip and not show up in the race,everything fell right for him in the arkle,but i just dont think he has the pace to cope with some of these over 2m
noble prince,not good enough,needs further,will not run
Master Minded,definatly wont run over 2m again,not quick enough anymore,will be aimed elsewhere
realt dubh,like captain chris and nobel prince,needs a step up in trip,not good enough or fast enough for this race,probably wont run
the only unknowen is if Flat Out recovers from injury and gets back to a high level,but have covered with him at 33/1
That just leaves a match between Finians 10/1 and Ghizao 25/1 and imo think Ghizao was very unluck not to have won the 2m race at both chelters and anitree,would have definatly beat finians at aintree but for his mistake 2 out and it was far worse mistake a chelters when going as good as any,there is no way he was going to recover from that and think he did amazing to still produce what he did after that error,i like both horses and think they were at a similar level last season,but would give Ghizao the edge despite official results,think he has much more room for improvement being a huge scopey horse and will come on a ton next year,whereas finians is tiny and will continue at a similar level,
as long as he stays fit and well i would be very confident about Ghizao for the Queen Mother,
Wishfull Thinking should go down the 2m route, would shake up the division imo
ghazio or however its spelt beating cc looking good how twice!
If that all turns out as you say Formman i take my hat off to yer!!
I suspect it wont though,and if SE dont run in the QM then imo his connections need the men in the white coats!!!
He is a proper QM horse and that last season was one of the best displays i have seen from a QM winner.
To be honest i would expect FR,BZ,SE,and Hobbs horse/horses to all turn up and be shorter than Ghizao.
I suspect it wont though,and if SE dont run in the QM then imo his connections need the men in the white coats!!!
He is a proper QM horse and that last season was one of the best displays i have seen from a QM winner.
To be honest i would expect FR,BZ,SE,and Hobbs horse/horses to all turn up and be shorter than Ghizao.
Ghizao also had 2 festival appearances and been pretty poor both times,that might put people off steamimg into him,would me!!
By the way Formman,where did you see that SE is definitely going for the Gold Cup??
Having said all that,i have just had another look at Ghizaos form,and some of that is pretty good,particulary as Howdi says that with Captain Chris.Therefore on the strength of that i have had a small wager with SJ at 25.That is too big on his best form.Still think he is behind a few and his festival runs would concern me,but as Formman says its possible some of those may not run in the QM.He is open to improvement as well.
owner has been saying it non stop for ages,even stated it during an interview hours after winning the queen mother,everybody knows its what the plan is,the only reason he went for the queen mother last season was because he had a setback on the run up to the king george and had to switch plans last minute,there is no way in hell he will run in the queen mother,i would bet my life on it a million times over and as for the Ghiazo stuff-just remember where you heard it first
I backed Ghizao at Chelt and Aintree this year and it was just 1 bad mistake cost him on either occassion
Definitely a live outsider for the CC imo
Definitely a live outsider for the CC imo
We knew what the plan was last season,but winning a QM the way he did would certainly make me think again,and i suspect it will make them think as well.
His 2 runs at around 3m would concern them as well i would think.They certainly dont scream Gold Cup horse to me.
Personally think they would be stark raving bonkers to go the Gold Cup route with a 2 miler who put up such a great performance beating what i consider to be one of the great 2 milers in BZ.
His 2 runs at around 3m would concern them as well i would think.They certainly dont scream Gold Cup horse to me.
Personally think they would be stark raving bonkers to go the Gold Cup route with a 2 miler who put up such a great performance beating what i consider to be one of the great 2 milers in BZ.
i would be amazed if SE didnt defend his crown.
i have the festival on sky+ and in the interview with the owner at no point does he say next year we will go for Gold so unless he says it in a different one im not convinced
i have the festival on sky+ and in the interview with the owner at no point does he say next year we will go for Gold so unless he says it in a different one im not convinced
i dont disagree with you budd,but at the end of the day its the owners horse and the only thing on his mind is winning a gold cup,he knows he has a top class horse and knows this might be his only chance to have a horse with the ability to win a gold cup and he has been stating for over a year now that that is the plan,so those who have backed him ante post for the queen mother have done there money
Equally u could have said they'd have done their money last year?
They may well want a Gold Cup horse but they need to get the right one to go for it,and imo SE is not that horse.They should know that after last season.
As for backing SE,wait for NRNB is my view.Especially if the owner is a loony!!
As for backing SE,wait for NRNB is my view.Especially if the owner is a loony!!
wishfull thinking - queen mother
was beaten for stamina against noble prince at cheltenham this year. if hobbs see's sense and uses his early pace and quick jumping over 2 miles this horse will have them all at it imo. like a young ashley brook!!
was beaten for stamina against noble prince at cheltenham this year. if hobbs see's sense and uses his early pace and quick jumping over 2 miles this horse will have them all at it imo. like a young ashley brook!!
young ashley brook cracking analogy that - top post sir
I was there when ashley brook won a hurdle race at cheltenham by about 35 lengths my mate turned round and kept saying 'he'll get knackered in a a minute'
I was there when ashley brook won a hurdle race at cheltenham by about 35 lengths my mate turned round and kept saying 'he'll get knackered in a a minute'
Howdi - that might have been me, I remember it well, and said exactly the same thing to a friend mid race! He was a really classy horse over fences, and obviously just translated that form, but I still expected him to come back to the field. Magnificent horse, just always clouted one. Regarding WIshful, I think he'll need more than 2 but interesting idea to make all.
carver i bet ive passed you hundreds of times at Cheltenham. We should all meet up for a pint next season even if its only at the best mate bar.
wishful thinking to me is the most interesting horse going into the new season could be
2 mile champion chase winner
Gold cup live candidate
Rynair possible
over rated nag.
wishful thinking to me is the most interesting horse going into the new season could be
2 mile champion chase winner
Gold cup live candidate
Rynair possible
over rated nag.
r carver....yes that was the lavelle horse,thanks.
agree with the post about wt ,hes the most interesting of last seasons novices imho tho will noble prince be trained at the gold cup?
agree with the post about wt ,hes the most interesting of last seasons novices imho tho will noble prince be trained at the gold cup?
I bet that is the case Howdi [:)] Last yr atthe festival I was the one wondering where it had all gone wrong when virtually everything was beaten
A pint would be a fine idea!
Tweedle, Toca looked nice I definately agree and I think Caught In Motion will improve for fences.
A pint would be a fine idea!
Tweedle, Toca looked nice I definately agree and I think Caught In Motion will improve for fences.
Silvianaco Conti in the RSA will be shorter than the current 23/1 if he turns up on the day. He ended last season on abit of a flat spot, and Paul Nicholls soon realised that 2m hurdling is not his thing and is crying out for 3m.
He gave some top horses a real beating over hurdles (inc Captain Chris) and I think if he takes to fences he has got the class to go close in the RSA.
Ghizao I've mentioned on other threads that I think he shouldn't be twice the price of Finians Rainbow.
Rubi Light His price has fluctuated a lot for the Gold Cup (between about 50/1 and 100/1) and I think this horse is much better than he's been given credit for. I think the Ryaniar would have been a photo if he wouldn't have nearly unseated the third last; travelled well all through the race and stayed on really well up the hill and began closing on the front two. Trainer says he is upped in trip this year.
He gave some top horses a real beating over hurdles (inc Captain Chris) and I think if he takes to fences he has got the class to go close in the RSA.
Ghizao I've mentioned on other threads that I think he shouldn't be twice the price of Finians Rainbow.
Rubi Light His price has fluctuated a lot for the Gold Cup (between about 50/1 and 100/1) and I think this horse is much better than he's been given credit for. I think the Ryaniar would have been a photo if he wouldn't have nearly unseated the third last; travelled well all through the race and stayed on really well up the hill and began closing on the front two. Trainer says he is upped in trip this year.
revedesivola
10 Aug 11 21:22 Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 10,004 | Blogger: revedesivola's blog
Silviniaco Conti is very much the forgotten horse of the hurdling division - he was very impressive when beating Karabak by seven lengths in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot in November, after which I believe Timeform put him up as ante-post bet for the Champion Hurdle. I never truly had him down as a two miler though, and think he is more of a 3m horse. We have yet to decide whether he will go novice chasing but the Ascot race he won last year was worth £50,000 to the winner, so perhaps we will send him there again and consider our options thereafter.
Sorry reve; wasn't trying to steal your thunder mate. I wrote my bit before I just read your post on another thread. Great minds and all that....[;)][;)]
10 Aug 11 21:22 Joined: 14 Sep 10 | Topic/replies: 10,004 | Blogger: revedesivola's blog
Silviniaco Conti is very much the forgotten horse of the hurdling division - he was very impressive when beating Karabak by seven lengths in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot in November, after which I believe Timeform put him up as ante-post bet for the Champion Hurdle. I never truly had him down as a two miler though, and think he is more of a 3m horse. We have yet to decide whether he will go novice chasing but the Ascot race he won last year was worth £50,000 to the winner, so perhaps we will send him there again and consider our options thereafter.
Sorry reve; wasn't trying to steal your thunder mate. I wrote my bit before I just read your post on another thread. Great minds and all that....[;)][;)]
im deeply offended. id like a written apology
silviniaco conti big price stood out a mile too me too maybe the bookies know something we dont. He was 10s to win champion hurdle at one point last year
I'm in the Ghizao camp too. How he is 25s and Finian's is 8s is beyond me.
agree re Rubi Light,Shame he's with such a rubbish trainer though
Does anyone actually know what the plan is with Master Minded? Does he definitely step up in trip now?
Just think that 16-1 could look a big price come Cheltenham if he sticks at two miles. I really like this horse - always have - but am beginning to think he is inconsistent in terms of the level of performance he puts up (there's no doubting his winning record). Still not sure he is quite right - not sure if the rib is affecting him or if there is something else, but the way he goes from tanking to emptying is suggestive of a problem to me.
He was outstanding at Aintree but I don't think the step up in trip was necessarily the reason for that. He would have won that race at any trip doing cartwheels and still think he is one of the most powerful horses in the game when on song. If he sluices up in the Tingle Creek or at Ascot (even over 2m3f) and connections say they are keeping their options open, you can bet your life you'll be able to trade out for a nice free bet if nothing else.
Having 16-1 about a dual QM winner, who is one of the highest-rated horses in training and still won Grade Ones at the distance last term - and who is still only 8 years old - could look a very smart move come March.
Just think that 16-1 could look a big price come Cheltenham if he sticks at two miles. I really like this horse - always have - but am beginning to think he is inconsistent in terms of the level of performance he puts up (there's no doubting his winning record). Still not sure he is quite right - not sure if the rib is affecting him or if there is something else, but the way he goes from tanking to emptying is suggestive of a problem to me.
He was outstanding at Aintree but I don't think the step up in trip was necessarily the reason for that. He would have won that race at any trip doing cartwheels and still think he is one of the most powerful horses in the game when on song. If he sluices up in the Tingle Creek or at Ascot (even over 2m3f) and connections say they are keeping their options open, you can bet your life you'll be able to trade out for a nice free bet if nothing else.
Having 16-1 about a dual QM winner, who is one of the highest-rated horses in training and still won Grade Ones at the distance last term - and who is still only 8 years old - could look a very smart move come March.
court in motion for me in rsa have always loved this horse and last year even said one day he will win gold cup! has always moved like chasing was his game and cant wait to see him 34s looks big!
He will never win it but Denman will be a lot shorter price come the day
Oscar Whiskey is likely to be 2nd fav for the World Hurdle and will be shorter than 10/1. As I mentioned elsewhere though winning it is another matter.
Sizing Europe at 33/1 could be single figures on the day if they decide to go for the Gold Cup, also surprised he isn't quoted for the KG
Sizing Europe at 33/1 could be single figures on the day if they decide to go for the Gold Cup, also surprised he isn't quoted for the KG
Big Zeb is 11 years old so rule him out?! [smiley:crazy]
All I'll say re the QM is this: Anything that beats Big Zeb will have had a race [;)] He was better than ever last year and he won't be 7/1 after mopping up all the 2 mile chases over here!
Another who I think could shorten is Quito De La Roque for the Gold Cup. Imo he was the best novice around last year, and with Kauto, Denman and Imperial Commander seemingly 'over the hill', Long Run is the one to beat. However, I just can't get the image of the brilliant Weapon's Amnesty sprinting away from Long Run out of my head. It must be likely that one of WA and Quito will go to the KG while the other stays at home for the Lexus. Jessie's Dream is another KG possible who'd I'd be interested in. If Long Run gets beaten by an Irish horse over there then we'll have the likes of Jessies Dream, WA, Quito, Pandorama, Kempes and Boston's Angel all shortening considerably.
All I'll say re the QM is this: Anything that beats Big Zeb will have had a race [;)] He was better than ever last year and he won't be 7/1 after mopping up all the 2 mile chases over here!
Another who I think could shorten is Quito De La Roque for the Gold Cup. Imo he was the best novice around last year, and with Kauto, Denman and Imperial Commander seemingly 'over the hill', Long Run is the one to beat. However, I just can't get the image of the brilliant Weapon's Amnesty sprinting away from Long Run out of my head. It must be likely that one of WA and Quito will go to the KG while the other stays at home for the Lexus. Jessie's Dream is another KG possible who'd I'd be interested in. If Long Run gets beaten by an Irish horse over there then we'll have the likes of Jessies Dream, WA, Quito, Pandorama, Kempes and Boston's Angel all shortening considerably.
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