Cheltenham Festival
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I will start the ball rolling......
Peddlers Cross 8-1 Arkle
I can see him going off around 2-1 Fav on the day assuming everything goes to plan beforehand.
Already won a point to point
2nd in a Champion Hurdle and rated 170 in that sphere.
Trained in my opinion by a master at getting them right for the big day.
Feel free to add others......
Peddlers Cross 8-1 Arkle
I can see him going off around 2-1 Fav on the day assuming everything goes to plan beforehand.
Already won a point to point
2nd in a Champion Hurdle and rated 170 in that sphere.
Trained in my opinion by a master at getting them right for the big day.
Feel free to add others......
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Sprinter Sacre against yours
 Power, Pace, Jumping. Designed for 2m chasing. Peddlers won't be as good a chaser as hurdler. |
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Cedre Bleu - Arkle
Massive price |
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rhinestone
10 Aug 11 21:32 Joined: 01 Apr 03 | Topic/replies: 732 | Blogger: rhinestone's blog Sprinter Sacre against yours Power, Pace, Jumping. Designed for 2m chasing. Peddlers won't be as good a chaser as hurdler. Head in Hands Man Required,Why wont he be a better Chaser??? Bred and Built for Chasing |
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OnTheSnaff
Head in Hands Man Required,Why wont he be a better Chaser??? Bred and Built for Chasing Are you sure? Have you looked at his breeding? Have you looked at his build? Looks a very neat horse to me at the moment. He's going to do very well to be 170+ over fences. It's very easy to pick the best 'sexy, 2nd in a Champion Hurdle' horse to be a chaser. Don't get me wrong I really like him... |
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Couple of points id like to make.
1. The top rated hurdler to run in the Arkle has a very good record and no horse will be higher rated. 2. Finians Rainbow was runner up this year and was a good few lengths behind Peddlers in the Neptune. Anyway we are going off topic a bit.The fact is in my opinion that if Peddlers gets to the Arkle fit and well i expect him to be a strong fav. |
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peddlers won his p2p didnt he?
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only stating that he jumps fences while the henderson horse is all class and potential,has he won a p2p?im not sure he has but im prepared to be corrected if anyone knows different?
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yes he has won a p2P
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thanks stormey,il have to look it up.it really should be a great arkle...the two you boys are keen on are major players for sure.
il throw in thousand stars[who i thought would go chasing last year,but was rewarded with a decent hurdling campaign],al ferof,sam winner,smad place,vino grigio,agean dawn and emme lavelles horse[name escapes me atm] |
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Arkle is a tricky race to work out before we have seen them jump a fence.I took a bit of a risk last season on Finians,but then Geraghty had said he was schooling really well and he was 30 odd on here.
To talk about horses at single figures at this stage as being value, without beeing seen jumping a fence, aint for me. |
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TWeedle - do you mean Toca Ferro?
Not sure about Sam Winner - i think he may need 4 miles! I know this yrs Arkle winner was a dour stayer, but I think Al Ferof will want further than 2 as well. |
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budd- the point of the thread is to try to pinpoint horses that could be very well priced now compared to what there sp is.
My take on it is that if Peddlers wins 2 or 3 novice chases then heads to the Arkle he will be much shorter than 8s pure and simple. Knowing how horses get hyped up and looking at the Champion Chase market i can even see a scenario where the press are screaming run him in that race!!! Just my opinion... |
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Another horse that springs to mind as overpriced to me is Oscars Well for the Champion Hurdle.
Travels like a class horse to my eyes and i think he hit the front way too soon in the Neptune then the mistake at the last ended any chance he had. 20-1 could look very big next March |
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Oscars Well is overpriced at the moment, for sure.
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See what you say stormey,sorry mate,did not mean to offend.
My take on the Arkle or RSA is that i would not take 8's at this stage for a horse i have not seen jump a fence. Yes if he starts off jumping fences well and winning races he will no doubt shorten,especially with his hurdle form,but for me i would look elsewhere for the value. Its possible he may start off a bit erratic and lengthen. Oscars well in the CH as you said above is more like my idea of a value horse. I do respect your opinion mate,and i am a big fan of Peddlers,and will watch him with great interest,but i wont back him till i have seen him jump,what price would he be after that if he jumped well?? |
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rhinestone,i cannot belive what im reading,have you seen peddlers cross in the flesh???
He's every bit a chaser in the making,anything he achieved over hurdles was a huge bonus,im amazed he done as well as he did over hurdles to be honest,i will be amazed if he's not been talked about as a Gold Cup horse in the coming seasons |
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I will be amazed if Oscar Whiskey aint a fair bit shorter price should he line up in the WH.
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You seem very confident he's going to be better over fences than hurdles OnTheSnaff. I don't think he will, it's no big deal.
Have you backed him for the Arkle yet? |
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Ghiazo at 25/1 for the Queen Mother is easily the most obvious one,not going to do a big write up but i have no doubts that he will be favorite on the day so 25/1 now is huge
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i do indeed rhinestone,but not until he steps up to 3mile plus,no i havent backed him for the arkle,im not an ante post man,anyway we will find out in time if he'll be much use over the bigger obstacles,goodluck
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Really Formman?? From what i have seen from Ghizao he looks to be behind Finians,and he in turn is a fair way behind Sizing imo.Its likely he will start shorter than 25 should he turn up,but no way will he be shorter than SE.
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How about Time for Rupert?? 15 on here could look big on the day.Ignore his RSA run where he burst blood vessel,he will be single figures i reckon should he run in the Gold Cup.
Like Bostons Angel as well but i do seem to be in a minority as regards him. |
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TFR is an interesting one - his form is solid. He put up a good effort in a poor RSA when breaking a blood vessel. Before that he'd beaten Chicago Grey easily, Quinz, Hels Bay, RDS. He should improve still and will stay all day. I suspect he may not be quite good enough, but he's interesting.
Ghizao is an interesting one as well. Arguably unlucky at AIntree after an error 2 out (maybe Finians was over the top) and made a similar hideous error in the Arkle. I like FR for teh QMCC but Ghizao on fom is too big IMO. |
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sizing europe 5/1
big zeb 7/1 finians rainbow 10/1 captain chris 12/1 noble prince 14/1 master minded 16/1 realt dubh 20/1 GHIZAO 25/1 flat out 33/1 Its down to many factors budd firstly,the fav Sizing Europe will not be defending his crown,the owners are 100% adamant that he is being trained for the gold cup this season and its all they care about-FACT 2nd favorite Big Zeb will be an 11 yo so you can forget about him Captain chris will probably be stepped up in trip and not show up in the race,everything fell right for him in the arkle,but i just dont think he has the pace to cope with some of these over 2m noble prince,not good enough,needs further,will not run Master Minded,definatly wont run over 2m again,not quick enough anymore,will be aimed elsewhere realt dubh,like captain chris and nobel prince,needs a step up in trip,not good enough or fast enough for this race,probably wont run the only unknowen is if Flat Out recovers from injury and gets back to a high level,but have covered with him at 33/1 That just leaves a match between Finians 10/1 and Ghizao 25/1 and imo think Ghizao was very unluck not to have won the 2m race at both chelters and anitree,would have definatly beat finians at aintree but for his mistake 2 out and it was far worse mistake a chelters when going as good as any,there is no way he was going to recover from that and think he did amazing to still produce what he did after that error,i like both horses and think they were at a similar level last season,but would give Ghizao the edge despite official results,think he has much more room for improvement being a huge scopey horse and will come on a ton next year,whereas finians is tiny and will continue at a similar level, as long as he stays fit and well i would be very confident about Ghizao for the Queen Mother, |
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Wishfull Thinking should go down the 2m route, would shake up the division imo
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^^^^ agree
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ghazio or however its spelt beating cc looking good how twice!
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If that all turns out as you say Formman i take my hat off to yer!!
I suspect it wont though,and if SE dont run in the QM then imo his connections need the men in the white coats!!! He is a proper QM horse and that last season was one of the best displays i have seen from a QM winner. To be honest i would expect FR,BZ,SE,and Hobbs horse/horses to all turn up and be shorter than Ghizao. |
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Ghizao also had 2 festival appearances and been pretty poor both times,that might put people off steamimg into him,would me!!
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By the way Formman,where did you see that SE is definitely going for the Gold Cup??
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Having said all that,i have just had another look at Ghizaos form,and some of that is pretty good,particulary as Howdi says that with Captain Chris.Therefore on the strength of that i have had a small wager with SJ at 25.That is too big on his best form.Still think he is behind a few and his festival runs would concern me,but as Formman says its possible some of those may not run in the QM.He is open to improvement as well.
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owner has been saying it non stop for ages,even stated it during an interview hours after winning the queen mother,everybody knows its what the plan is,the only reason he went for the queen mother last season was because he had a setback on the run up to the king george and had to switch plans last minute,there is no way in hell he will run in the queen mother,i would bet my life on it a million times over and as for the Ghiazo stuff-just remember where you heard it first
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I backed Ghizao at Chelt and Aintree this year and it was just 1 bad mistake cost him on either occassion
Definitely a live outsider for the CC imo |
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We knew what the plan was last season,but winning a QM the way he did would certainly make me think again,and i suspect it will make them think as well.
His 2 runs at around 3m would concern them as well i would think.They certainly dont scream Gold Cup horse to me. Personally think they would be stark raving bonkers to go the Gold Cup route with a 2 miler who put up such a great performance beating what i consider to be one of the great 2 milers in BZ. |
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i would be amazed if SE didnt defend his crown.
i have the festival on sky+ and in the interview with the owner at no point does he say next year we will go for Gold so unless he says it in a different one im not convinced |
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i dont disagree with you budd,but at the end of the day its the owners horse and the only thing on his mind is winning a gold cup,he knows he has a top class horse and knows this might be his only chance to have a horse with the ability to win a gold cup and he has been stating for over a year now that that is the plan,so those who have backed him ante post for the queen mother have done there money
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Equally u could have said they'd have done their money last year?
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They may well want a Gold Cup horse but they need to get the right one to go for it,and imo SE is not that horse.They should know that after last season.
As for backing SE,wait for NRNB is my view.Especially if the owner is a loony!! |
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wishfull thinking - queen mother
was beaten for stamina against noble prince at cheltenham this year. if hobbs see's sense and uses his early pace and quick jumping over 2 miles this horse will have them all at it imo. like a young ashley brook!! |