WEAPON'S AMNESTY

this years gc should be v good, riverside theatre, long run, diamond harry, captain chris, weapons amnesty, burton port, master minded, time for rupert... + all the oldies, none of which have a chance

Master Minded

hes goin for it isnt he?

^Yeah, but he insn't going to win it and nor is Diamond "crap it's not autumn any more" Harry. I agree it should be a good year though.

what makes you think hes not going to win. great chance i think

which? MM or DH?

mm

Mainly that Gold Cup winners are almost always progressive, relatively unexposed horses and MM has a lot of miles on the clock. It's rare for recent GC winners to have run in more than 12 chases - Kauto Star being an exception (MM has run 22).

I also have a big doubt that MM will stay the Gold Cup trip at a demanding track like Cheltenham - it's a big jump from 20 f at Aintree. And he's unlikely to get much cut in the ground (which he seems to like nowadays) on the last day of the festival.

hes only exposed at 2 miles, speed not as good as it was. the only question to be answered i think is whether or not he will stay, only time will tell!

Indeed!

Be very surprised if he ends up in the GC myself but who knows

1.2 Ryanair
5 Ryanair
100 CC

Be very surprised if he ends up in the GC myself but who knows

1.2 Ryanair
5 GC
100 CC

If Weapon's Amnesty is as good as he was before his injury, which is often not the case, he will be the one to beat for me. He has all the right attributes for a Gold Cup winner. Would want to see how his well-being is before backing him though


Long Run was outpaced by a couple of pensioners until they got tired and he ran on past them. There is no intent there to disrespect the old guard, but they aren't the forces they once were, and he is very opposable


Only other horse I could be interested in is Captain Chris. Arkle not a bad race for producing Gold Cup horses (Best Mate, War Of Attrition and Kicking King immediately spring to mind) and he's already proven he stays further than 2m


I don't think this year's RSA was up to much, Diamond Harry doesn't strike me as much of a battler to win a GC, last time I checked the GC wasn't ran at Kempton so that's Riverside Theatre gone, and Master Minded, do me a favour ffs

Concur with all the above, Q de la Roque is an impressive looking beast with a nearly perfect novice record. A able sub if WA doesn't make it back for that feckin eejit o lairy [:x]

I believe that Quito developed into the best Irish novice last year (despite his early season defeat to Bostons Angel)

Time For Rupert is clearly better than his RSA run, but never struck me as an out and out top class horse previously (includes his Stayers second)

IMO the Gold Cup is between Captain Chris, Weapon's Amnesty and Long Run. Burton Port should run a good race if returning sound, but don't think he has the residual class to win the race

See no reason why Bostons Angel should not improve to be a GC contender.Seems to have that winning attitude and looks to me a horse that will keep finding.He was top novice at this sort of distance last season and not one to underestimate imo

Agree re Weapons if he has recovered from his problems and can come back in the form he was in,serious GC contender for sure if he can.

Weapons

Bostons Angel will relish the 3m2f anyway, I could actually see the GC being his best performance of the season, but I wouldn't say he'd be good enough to win it.

extra 2 furlongs marathon trip and that, might get him closer  to the top horses.

Completely agree with FFT.

Bostons possibly wont be good enough,but at current price and improvement to come,i am willing to take a chance that he will be.
Just love the horses attitude,just hates to be headed it seems.

they seldom come back to their very best after an injury imo ,i hope he does but the horse who impressed me the most is captain chris just wonder if hobbs will go gold cup route .

Unbelievable that some people think that any of the rags mentioned on this thread can even touch LR,dont me me fvcking laugh!!!!

and as for MM getting 3m2f round chelters eh,yeah right-nice joke

and WA will never see a race track again

foyles - injury wasnt a serious one - they could have raced him in the second half of the season but chose to wait until this season

no point form man watching this season he knows it all all ready

TheFormMan sounds like you think Longrun is a cert.  How much would you like on with me at 11/4????

Howdi

of course he is a cert and why the hell would i have 11/4 with you when you can get 3/1 at a number of bookies

A 3/1 cert!!,if only that were true.

We could make a fortune!!

seems pretty obvious to me budd,he turns up fit and well and he wins,very straightforward

Fair enough,could well be right,but their are some real interesting up and comers next season.
He certainly has the beating of any of the older horses,but WA plus the new kids on the block tells me that he aint no cert!!

I have yet to really take to Long Run but will admit i could be wrong

I'm with Howdi. Thought Wow after the Feltham, not sure about him following up the GC. I know he won the KG and GC and you cant fault the horse but something still nagging me about taking the 11-4

WEAPON'S AMNESTY, last seen in public when winning the 2010 RSA Chase, is back in training with Charles Byrnes and
looking good for a campaign that could be finessed around a crack at the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Gigginstown House Stud's eight-year-old, successful in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle at the 2009 festival, suffered ligament trouble after winning the RSA.

Giving an update on his condition, Byrnes said: "He was out on grass at Gigginstown and in pre-training with Ciaran Murphy and Dott Love for about three or four weeks before he came here about two weeks ago.

"I'm delighted to have him back and he looks well; it's a case of so far so good. We've nothing planned for him, but I'd like to think he'll start back in about three months from now."

Byrnes also reported Solwhit in good shape. The six-time Grade 1-winning hurdler finished runner-up to Hurricane Fly on no fewer than four occasions last season and his trainer has decided it is time for a switch.

"The plan is to go chasing with Solwhit, as there is not much point in taking on Hurricane Fly again over hurdles," he said. "He's back in about a fortnight or so. We're looking at starting him off in about three months from now

My suspicion is that Long Run beat an ageing generation last year and may be vunerable. Looking back how he never won the paddy power off  a mark off 150ish beggars belief.

Must admit that i did back him in the PP and that run did baffle me and still does,but i think he has proved that all wrong now

"We're looking at starting him off in about three months from now". I do hope that means the Hennessey.

Haydock??

umm,he really should have won that Paddy Power doing handstands.
maybe his beating of the old guard aint up to much,guess we will find out soon with the up and coming ones taking him on.
one thing for sure i would not take 3's for the Gold Cup to find out!!

Yep Haydock, or they could go to Down Royal if they want to stay in Ireland. However, I think he could be as much as 25 lbs well in in a handicap like the Hennessey (based on the form of the 2010 RSA and his mark of 152).

As for Long Run, I seriously doubt he's worth a rating of 182 given the KG was very weak and the Gold Cup form very fragile.

a nice horse,a RANCID trainer

Lon Gun's trainer's string was not right last November when beaten. He was also given lumps of weight to a horse in peak form and super fit from a prior run and was givena bad ride (STD getting free on ground that was hard to peg back on). The horse is very good, who knows whether 182 is correct, but knocking any of his form is mistaken IMO.

I really do not think the KG form is that weak either. The form of Riverside Theatre was mighty strong and he beat him senseless.

'Long Run' - 'Lon Gun' - thats something AP specialises in, not the name of a horse!

Weapon's Amnesty is a tailor made Hennessey horse, bit of an ask though first time out off his break, would have thought a spin over hurdles might come in handy beforehand

^Bit of an ask, but he could be way in front of the handicapper. Looking back, 5 of the last 6 Hennesey winners won first time out (though without a whole season off!).

R C - I agree Riverside Theatre's form is OK, but I think he's a 2 1/2 miler - so Long Run, who has stamina to burn, ought to thump him. Also, RT didn't beat much in the Betfair. I have no doubt that Long Run was the worthy staying champion in 2010-11. I just don't think he's a 182 horse and I don't think he's bomb-proof this season.

Was gonna say myself,i dont recall Riverside Theatre having mighty strong form.
I aint sure either about him being 182,and am quiet happy to be taking Long Run on this season coming.
Some good youngsters will give him more of a challenge than Kauto and Denman and IC were able to do last season,time had caught up.

Agree strontium, WA made mince of a very good RSA field.

Re: Riverside Theatre, he went into the KG 4/4 at Kempton previously, clearly acts on the course

Still, I doubt that LR is a 180s horse

people getting too carried away with weapons amensty imo

good horse

but record of injured horses coming back is rancid

i agree howdi, rsa is hardly the greatest race for measuring a horses ability either!

I am not going to say Riverside is a Gold Cup winner but i do believe he is seriously good and i've always (since his bumper days) thought he was a stayer. Regarding the form of the King George, this is what I said hours after it -

He's 6 and he's beaten a horse rated 160 by 12 lengths without being fully extended. Rivseride gave 7lbs and a 10L beating to Golan Way the time before [i should have added - without coming off the bridle] - Golan Way is rated 146 and after receiving that beating he came out and gave 6lb and a 2l beating to Pearlysteps. Pearlysteps is rated 138 and after that beating he has since won a race himself.

Riverside Theatre may or may not be genuine grade 1 material, but he loves Kempton, clearly stayed very well (has always IMo needed a trip), and is only 7 having had only 1 run outside novice company before today. He is not some exposed, ordinary old nag, he is entitled to improve, particularly on his favourite track.

In 4th he beat 158 rated (possible non stayer) Nacarat by 25l - not as far as Kauto beat him last yr; A race fit Nacarat was beaten about 12l by a ring rusty Imperial Commander at Haydock (i'd expect Imperial Commander to dish out a bigger beating when at concert pitch).

I have no idea whther the winner acts round Cheltenham, but he left that form miles behind today (possibly because the track was not cheltenham), and dishing out a 12l beating to Riverside Theatre is at the very least decent form (as the above demonstrates). I dont think this form should be crabbed too much though i would think 180 is at least half a stone too much.

Since then Long Run put up a performance which may or may not have been the best Gold Cup in yrs, but IMO genuinely put up a performance that was above avaerage. He is a seriously good horse. The Cheltenham run proves he acts on the track - he was beaten in the RSA IMO because he was 9as the trainer claims) over the top. He was beaten in the Paddy Power IMO for the reasons I have given above. He will be camnpaigned well and IMO the only thng that can beat him is his jumping which even on te day of his best effort was not perfect - with better jumping (which i know is not guaranteed, and is the whole point of NH racing) he'd have been even more impressive in the Gold Cup. I'd be astonished is anything from the 4m or RSA novices beat Long Run.

I know Pride of Dulcote fell, and he may have won pulling a train by 20l at Ascot, but that was a nevertheless an impressive performance. The form was let down but he did not come off te bit to win by 10l.

I suspect Long Run may be vulnerable at Haydock - the trainer would rarely have a horse at his peak at that time of yr, be interesting to see who turns up, but you coudl see Nicholls sending something there razor sharp to try to upset the applecart.

That RSA is one of the strongest races you're ever going to see
Burton Port(2nd) Beaten 7 lengths. Won the Mildmay, 2nd in the Hennessey
Long Run (3rd) 3rd in the Paddy Power, won the King George, won the Gold Cup
Little Josh (6th) Won the Paddy Power
Diamond Harry (PU) Won the Hennessey

I fully agree WA mght not come back from his injury, but if he does, with that form and two festival wins under his belt, he's a serious horse.

RC - This is why racing is fun. I was at Kempton for the King George and my gut feeling as they crossed the line was that the form was weak.

I'll just add re Long Run, only 5 horses have won multiple Gold Cups since the war and at least 3 of those were superstars - it takes a special beast to do it - so if LR does, he's the exception rather than the rule.

stront, ive no doubt that it was full of good horses but i dont think many horses run to form in the race because it takes so much out of them. burton port was miles ahead of diamond harry when dh pulled up, but from the fixed brush hurdle and the hennessy, its obvious dh is better than him (was at least). that nag of willie mullins that won the previous year by a country mile hasnt done anything since!. long run is almost definately better than burton port, yet finished behind him. i just think the form of the race sends out mixed messages and while all the good horses generally contest it, the form lines dont always hold up...

Strontium - i agree, this kind of debate is fascinating! In respect of the RSA + 4m race, I mean this yrs was weakish, not last yrs - i agree with you, last yrs was a good renewal, notwithstanding RDS's valid point above.

I know a couple of people who were all in on Diamond Harry last yr and fancy him this yr. And yes, Long Run is trying to do something unusual in going for a repeat. I wonder (but i've no idea) whether it may become easier to do that now given the better ground, the better ground through the winter, and the typically lighter campaigns? I do not know, just a thought.

Interesting debate.

Regarding Weapons, his festival record is exception (obviously) and he would handle better gound so who knows..

If Weapons doesn't come back as good as ever, Gigginstown have a very able deputy in Quito De La Roque, already mentioned on here I know. Think this one will be their Hennessy horse if WA is not back to his best, and feel he could go to the top. Been chipping away at him for the GC for a while now.

Re the RSA debate, it may be a blessing that he bypassed it, I'm hoping for a very big season from him, and fingers crossed WA comes back too.

Hi Reve - I agree the RSA is a tough race, but the form of the 2010 renewal (completely unlike 2009 even though Cooldine looked awesome) was very strong overall - However, I take your point that it may be the form of the race in general, rather than of the individual horses relative to each other.

I slighlty disagree about Burton Port who is a horse I rate a lot. At the weights he was very close to Diamond Harry in the Hennessey (having gone through the cross fence 5 out). I also think a stiffer course (ie Cheltenham) would really suit him (more than Newbury). I was disappointed that he got injured last season. It's fair to surmise that Long Run has progressed more than BP, but who knows by how much. I think at the current GC prices, Burton Port is good value.

RC - Diamond Harry looks to me a flat track horse and an autumn horse. They clearly haven't worked out yet how to get him near his best in spring. So I could see him putting up a big run in the King George, but I struggle to see him winning a Gold Cup. As you say, Weapons Amnesty is sellar at the festival and that's hugely valuiable - horses that have done well there before so often win the top races.

It's going to be a fascinating season - I can't wait.

Here, here Strontium (and I agree re Diamond - I'd back him at Newbury!).

wishful thinking good thingfor hennessey?

RC,you and a few others i have noticed are saying the RSA was weakish this year.May well be proved right,but personally i have a high regard for Bostons Angel,think he is one of those horses that really busts a gut for his jockey and just keeps finding and finding,with that i aint gonna lose attitude.I am really looking forward to seeing him step up and see how good he can be against the big boys.
The Gold Cup to me is tailor made for this horse,thats if he is good enough of course!!

bust gutting attitude does not equal class

he will do well in a couple of handicaps tho[;)]

Hi Budd, he's a horse I like too mate and I think a gold cup grind would be his cup of tea. He is a a proper trier and really likeable. Stays all day! I also quite like the Ian Williams horse (name escapes me) who stays all day.

They all usually improve in their second season, and I probably have been a little hasty and unfairly dismissive of the novices, but my feeling is that this generation will come up a little short, but i could easily be wrong.

The main one i would take out of the RSA, and the one who i feel is most likely to make a dent, is Time for Rupert. His form looks very, very solid, as good as anything from last yr's novices, and i'd forgive him his RSA run - I suspect he never properly  got over the issue that prevented him runing in the January race. I think he'll be the one who makes the biggest impression in G1 company next yr outside novice company. I like the way his trainer brings this horse along too, peaking in the spring.

Another novice who has form with Bostons is Quite De La Roque - I think he looked like he was improving late last yr and may prove ultimately better than Bostons.

Yep mate,totally agree about Rupert,and at around 15 could well be value,real good Cheltenham form and despite a burst blood vessel showed his class in the RSA i thought to finish as close as he did.
If i really had to say now about last seasons novices,i would probably go with the majority and say they aint quiet good enough,but with likely improvement some of them could just surprise,and after all it does look a new generation has taken over and i would not be that surprised if one or two of the novices figured amongst the top at the end of next season.
I guess quiet often when a race is close that they turn out average types and that may well be the case with the RSA,but it could be that,Bostons,Jessies and Wayward Prince,as well as Rupert could actually be better than most think.Certainly keeping an open mind about it and their are some big prices knocking about if you do like them!!
Quito de la Roque is definitely improving i agree,so yes he could well be another potential GC horse,and i would not dismiss the other horse owned by Gigginstown who has form with Bostons,whose name escapes me,finished 4th in the RSA,i think.
All good stuff mate.

Magnaniminity

The other i'd take from the RSA is Quel Esprit. Clearly his jumping is an issue, but if he can get that together, i'd say he'd be a very good horse. big 'if' perhaps.

Exciting chaser Weapon's Amnesty is likely to make his eagerly anticipated return in November.

The Charles Byrnes-trained chestnut was last seen winning the RSA Chase at the 2010 Cheltenham Festival, his second successive victory at the showpiece meeting.

Although he missed last season with injury, Byrnes is confident his lightly-raced eight-year-old will return as good as ever.

"He's in good form at the moment and the plan is for him to be out somewhere in November," said Byrnes.

"I haven't got anything earmarked at the moment and the thing with him is that he has to go left-handed.

"That means there are limited options with him before Christmas, so we'll have to see.

"We'll see how he's coming along nearer the time, but hopefully we'll find something in November.

"The plan after that would be to go to Leopardstown for the Lexus Chase over Christmas.

"I'm confident his ability remains intact as he hasn't got much mileage on the clock."

Byrnes' other stable star is six-time Grade One winner Solwhit, who will be one of the best hurdlers to go novice chasing in Ireland this season.

"I'm happy with him and he should also be out in November sometime, but I'm not sure where yet," Byrnes added.

"I think the plan is still to go novice chasing with him."

If you're reading Charles, the Hennessey is in November on a left handed track....

WEAPON'S AMNESTY, as short as 12-1 for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup with Blue Square, will not run this season after suffering a recurrence of a ligament injury, according to trainer Charles Byrne.

Weapon's Amnesty has not run since landing the 2010 RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, and was considered a leading contender for the 2011 Gold Cup.

However he sustained the ligament injury in the RSA and was then given a long rest by Byrnes and owner Michael O'Leary.

Weapon's Amnesty returned to work at Byrnes' yard this summer, but the trainer reported at Naas on Sunday that the Gigginstown House Stud-owned eight-year-old will now miss this season as well.

He said: "You can rule him out for the season. Solwhit will be out for a beginners' chase in about five weeks though."

Gutted about this, was on at 33's for this years Gold Cup, and thought he had a great chance.

Hopefully he will be back next year but will be very tough having to come back from 2 years off.

As mentioned in this thread, the form of his RSA win is fantastic.

By: TheFormMan
Date Joined: 05 Dec 10
Blogger: TheFormMan's blog Add contact When: 09 Aug 11 15:56 Unbelievable that some people think that any of the rags mentioned on this thread can even touch LR,dont me me fvcking laugh!!!!

and as for MM getting 3m2f round chelters eh,yeah right-nice joke

and WA will never see a race track again


Told you this cripple would never run again,will be retired this season

Theformman,

Its a shame that we won't get to see this machine again this year, and I think most National Hunt fans will be sad that he won't be at the festival in March.

You're just bitter because you probably put the mortgage on Long Run in the RSA and this fella creamed all over him!!

I have no issues with WA,he was a cracking horse,just think its pretty stupid to have a thread talking about him coming back and being a gold cup horse,when it is pretty obvious that he will never see a racecourse again,as i stated


Actually backed Punchestown in that RSA