Ante Post. What's the point???

You've got a point, I'll also be reducing AP punting next year.

I was lucky because I backed Hurricane Fly last year at 14/1 before his run in Punchestown, so he covered most of my Festival.

However, I lost £20 on Punjabi in the Arkle, £20 on Flat Out in the Arkle, £10 Rock Noir in the Jewson, £20 Riverside Theatre in Ryanair, £6 Pride of Dulcotte in Gold Cup, £5 Khyber Kim in World hurdle and £10 on Franklino in Triumph. 

Thats around £100 and I bet a total of £400 for the Festival, so a quarter of my money didn't get a run.

^^^ You also get things like Best Odds Guaranteed on the day, enhanced places in the handicaps and Bet365's 4/1 free bet offer, and bonuses on Lucky 15's, so its definitely better to wait imo.

And this year with Henderson and Mullins changing their minds every five minutes, its better to play safe

Agree that betting antepost is a risk but for big priced ones(pricewise tipped up AL FEROF @ 25/1 won at 10/1) so wouldn't be bettin the 2/1 and 5/4 shots etc but at fancy prices worth chucking a few bob at them.I would say the biggest negative about this kind of punting is the uncertainty of which race they are going for e.g. i had bet bobs worth for the neptune nrnb at 5/1 but when i read that they would consider the albert bartlett i put the same amount on him winning that @ 10/1 also nrnb returned sp of 15/8 - so still value to be had out there.
anyway good luck next yaer

I'm not sure willie I got Bensalem at 16.5 and first lieutenant at 18.5 this side of Xmas. Equally I lost a fair amount on riverside theatre and tranquil sea without getting a run. If you play at or close to the front of the Market in the weeks leading up then it's possible there won't be much difference.

Pre Christmas at big prices for small stakes is ok. Anything after new years day can wait, imo

Couldn't disagree more.

I had 23 bets in the week. All but one were AP (16 nrnb).
On every single one I beat SP and many were double or better.

16s and 12s wasnt available about Junior before xmas

Captain Chris. antepost 25/1.  sp 6/1
Bostons Angel antepost 33/1, sp 16/1
Hurricane Fly. antepost 11/2. sp 11/4
Long Run. antepost 25/1. sp 7/2

I rest my case milud. The trick is knowing that when the bookies go nrnb most the value will be gone and your horse by then is well odds on to make the race anyway so the shorter nrnb prices being close to day of race prices are bad value because taking these short prices you still dont know what the ground, opposition, well-being of your horse will be until the day. In other words nrnb brings you virtual day of race prices while still having the disadvantages of an antepost bets uncertainty. Benefit of nrnb is when a horse isnt sure to run and has a choice of races.

Ladcrooks no longer on oddschecker, their prices are already terrible for Cheltenham 2011, have they moved a set of accountants in? Long Run and Hurricane Fly v short for example.

both at 5/2

Try these for NRNB and then tell me there is no value in them ,Eric.

Get Me Out of Here  16/1
Alberta's Run     10/1
De Boitron      20/1
Loosen My Load   14/1
Sunnyhillboy    10/1
So Young       6/1
Chartreux     16/1
Bobs Worth     10/1

I only back winners mate.

The best value on the winners was available before Xmas.

Zarkandar only made its debut 3 weeks before the festival and was available at 14/1 for the Triumph after it had won a major trial. So value can be had late on if uou back the right horses

Zarkandar is totally different as he made a late debut so is not relevant to the discussion on NRNB.

When I posted this below on the Arkle thread you could get around 25s Captain Chris the Arkle and also Noble Prince the Jewson. You were not going to get anywhere near these prices a couple of weeks before the race when they went NRNB.

flyingbolt is typical of the punter who will see the demise of antepost prices due to their own greed without risk, lack of knowledge of what they are actually getting with NRNB (which I explained in my post above but he chose to ignore) helped by bookies like Ladcrooks who have appalling value the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup 2012 already on their website no wonder they dont want to be on oddschecker. No coincidence they went NRNB the earliest to slash their prices which werent shown on oddschecker, no wonder. YOU STILL HAVE THE DISADVANTAGES OF PLACING AN ANTEPOST BET BUT YOU ARE TAKING NEAR DAY OF RACE PRICES FOR NRNB AT A STAGE WHERE YOUR HORSE IS ALMOST CERTAIN TO MAKE THE RACE ANYWAY (ITS TRIALS ALL RUN, LESS RISK OF INJURY IN THE SHORT RUN UP). IS IT WORTH SHORTER PRICES ON AVERAGE TO GET NOTHING IN RETURN NRNB AS YOU STILL DONT KNOW THE GROUND, OPPOSITION, WELL-BEING OF YOUR HORSE ON THE DAY WHICH IS SAME AS WHEN NOT NRNB BUT AT BIGGER PRICES ????

The only advantage NRNB on average is when your horse has multiple targets.


eric_morris
When: 05 Dec 10 12:14

Noble Prince looks an ideal candidate for the new 2m 4f chase he seems to lack that bit of toe when it matters for an Arkle horse. He has run well over 3m over hurdles and seems to have a preference for slower ground. None of these good signs for an Arkle imo.

Captain Chris who was mentioned in the first post on this thread ran v well in the hottest Arkle trial so far for me. He will improve a lot for better ground and that first outing over fences where we already know he jumps well. A strong run Arkle on faster ground will suit him down to the ground where he will travel better and forge on strongly to the line. The first day at the Festival is good/soft but a bit quicker than the Cheltenham trial which will make things interesting between him and Ghizao, who also likes good/soft come March.

Incidentally, judging by the money for Zarkandar the last day or two I reckon these could be W1seprice insiders getting their money on so they can arb after Monday when I expect to see him tip him up as value for the Champion Hurdle next season. I thought they had stopped this W1seprice insider trading a couple of years ago no different to stock market insider trading where they are stuck in prison for it, will be interesting to see what he tips.

Which part of NRNB don't you understand, Thicko ?

The prices I quoted where all taken within 10 days of the race. 4 of them were double or more what you could get on the day of the race market,3 of the others were almost double.

Doubtless you will come up with some other argument to dispute this.

You are making yourself look a complete c0ck on this thread.

But then we all knew that anyway.

You are a clown of the first order and no doubt lose fortunes antepost as you dont have an understanding re the long term implications of this (which isnt surprising). I am not wasting time repeating myself to somebody who doesnt want to listen.

You're right. I don't want to listen to any more of the claptrap you come out with.

Good now fk off back into your Walter Mitty world where you make massive profits antepost.

Where did I claim to make massive profits ante post iyo ?

You two bit piece of shyte.

Almost all of my bets were placed antepost and at bigger odds than the sp.

Especially Irish horses, you lot always think our racing is sh!t so our horses are always big prices antepost, even in January after the leopardstown christmas meeting.

I backed First Lieutenant at 20/1 and Oscars Well at 29/1 for example.

I see the point in both arguments.

I've said above I will be reducing my Ante Post betting next year and I will; but I will carry on putting most of mine on when bookies first go NRNB.

This is because you can see what races are going to cut up so you know on the day your horse will be much shorter.  For example, two weeks before the Ryanair there was still Somersby, Captain Cee Bee, Sizing Europe, Golden Silver, Master Minded etc so I backed Rubi Light then at 40/1 ew, knowing he will go off at half the odds when the final decs came out.

I don't think I backed one horse that went shorter on the day and the following were all NRNB (eg Maljimar 14/1, Ballyhaunis 25/1, Gagewell Flyer 25/1, Oscars Well 6/1, Bensalem 10/1, Wayward Prince 20/1 etc etc). 

OK, only Bensalem won but because I got some good value I could limit myself to much smaller stakes and risk less money.

Agree plenty of value backing when it first goes nrnb. Did most of my betting then.

I'm going to start looking next week at the markets, looking at this years runners add in the trends basis ie Zarkander will be well backed but will be a 5year old.

eric_morris
When: 05 Dec 10 12:14

Noble Prince looks an ideal candidate for the new 2m 4f chase he seems to lack that bit of toe when it matters for an Arkle horse. He has run well over 3m over hurdles and seems to have a preference for slower ground. None of these good signs for an Arkle imo.

Captain Chris who was mentioned in the first post on this thread ran v well in the hottest Arkle trial so far for me. He will improve a lot for better ground and that first outing over fences where we already know he jumps well. A strong run Arkle on faster ground will suit him down to the ground where he will travel better and forge on strongly to the line. The first day at the Festival is good/soft but a bit quicker than the Cheltenham trial which will make things interesting between him and Ghizao, who also likes good/soft come March.




where is this thread eric?? i like to read the whole thing, cheers.

.

I agree the prices don't warrant the added risk but it takes a lot more discipline to do everything properly on the day

I have two antepost shots (Time for Rupert and Weapons Amnesty) that will be much shorter than current prices if they turn up at their best and these are the best sorts to invest on at this stage

http://community.betfair.com/cheltenham2011/go/thread/view/113609/25997741/t...

^ ilikewavingatbuses - Arkle thread

Looking back at my AP chelt bets most of them are horrific - either non runners (Hells Bay, Quito, Noble Prince in Arkle), or horses I liked less on the day (Realt Dubh, Pandorama, Smad Place), or just backed too many in the race (Arkle 2 NRs 2 AP, Jewson 1 NR 3 AP) for a stupid risk:return, or they just started bigger prices than I took (loads).

And then there were all the bookies offers/extra place terms I missed out on, and the betfair/tote huge odds.

But I did also back What A Charm at 33s which paid for all the carnage. And it's these bets which keep us coming back to AP even though we should know better.

From my experience anything I back below about 16s is more often than not a mistake, and quite often a big one (enthusiasm/stakes increasing with shorter prices)

And anything I back above 40s or so is usually either not going to run, or isn't going to be shorter on the day.

So my plan is to stick to 16s-33s type AP bets - doesn't make much sense logically (value is value whatever the price) but with small stakes you get a big reward and I find the bets aren't so large to affect your better judgement on the day of the race.

I like to have a play on here for small stakes at big prices at the start of the season to give me horses to follow. Most of my ap betting is done in the 2 weeks before majority of the bookies go nr/nb, was on Sizing at 16's and First Lieutenant at 14's which made for a cracking Wednesday

Spirit Son 22/1, Aigle D'Or 16/1 Finian's Rainbow 25/1 were all available at one point. The fact they never won doesn't mean those who backed them never cleaned up. More to backing AP than the horses winning these days.

You are going to have good years and bad years. And its going to look like aftertiming to say why AP is a good thing, but 8/1 Oscars Well, 8/1 Noble Prince, 10/1 Long Run, 14/1 Get Me Out of Here, 60/1 Grandouet.... to name a few, were all bets I was very happy with come the day!

Of course I had plenty of losers too... but thats down to my bad judgement.

It's exactly the same as day of the race for me, finding prices that are blatantly too big. If you are backing things like Hurricane Fly now then antepost isnt for you, as it's highly likely he won't be much shorter if lining up on the day.

I  have been amazed how backing horses who are over priced has worked well. Regardless of if they win the race or not you can trade out of your bets for profit.

None more successful than I did when trading out of fly and binocular to move to b0yles who were nrnb and offering money back if your horse came second. Binocular non runner and fly price already taken was excellent.

You also have to try and take advantage of likely running plans etc, for example I backed Robinson Collonges at 20/1 the day Hells Bay was a NR and there was also doubts about the two Hobbs horses running. He obv ran a shocker but having 20/1 about a 6/1 shot allows you a bit of leeway in the dotr markets. I did have a couple of nice antepost prices too, but thought id use this one as an example as to not be accused of aftertiming [;)]

If you had layed him at his 6/1 sp you'd have a free bet at 14/1 or if you layed half your stake back at 6/1  young have the remaining stake at 34/1

Take advantage of the bid prices antepost by laying back some at the sp if you think the horse has gone too short.

and all my bets and betting actions are posted, probably more than once, so I don't worry about any aftertiming. Easiest way to go about it.

Have to say I lean towards CVB's position here, particularly with regard to the Festival handicaps. After this year's experience I'll be paying particular attention around the end of Feb  from now on when the h'cap weights come out - most firms' prices still include a bit extra to allow for multiple targets, but in a lot of cases punters have the benefit of NRNB (and in one or two cases best odds guaranteed as well). This year I bagged a few clunkers, but also had Junior at 10s (2 March), Sir des Champs at 16s (3 March), and What A Charm at 33s (11 March), all NRNB and the first two best odds guaranteed.

Handicaps are irrelevant as the markets are in the couple of weeks before the festival so are nrnb.