Cheltenham Festival
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Never fully bought into this talk of the horse regressing. At least not yet - maybe in three or four more years time! Even more buoyed this morning by the news that the track is riding as fast as ever this week (Times dipping under standard since Tuesday).
Always been said that Kauto's jumping is not as good in stickier soft ground, but in good ground it's absolutely flawless. It's been his ace card in all those stunning wins at Cheltenham and Kempton.
Let's look at his performances since that King George win at the end of 2009:
Gold Cup - Travelled extremely well for the first mile, better than anything, until rare mistake at the seventh fence probably cost him his chance. Did well to recover but never travelling as well thereafter - looked in lots of trouble when falling though had begun to respond to Ruby's urgings.
Returned after Summer to record workmanlike win at Down Royal. Nothing spectacular but worth noting that the current Champion Chaser finished behind him that day.
Kempton rescheduling can't have suited, still looked booked for second until very bad blunder two out when under the pump. Winner had too much class and speed but subsequent quotes from trainer indicate all was not well, plus the return of Ruby is sure to bring about further improvement as well as a longer race on better ground.
Conclusion: Back Kauto to regain the Gold Cup for a second time! Keep on eye on Looks Like Trouble's track record of 6m 30.30s set back in the year 2000 as well!
Always been said that Kauto's jumping is not as good in stickier soft ground, but in good ground it's absolutely flawless. It's been his ace card in all those stunning wins at Cheltenham and Kempton.
Let's look at his performances since that King George win at the end of 2009:
Gold Cup - Travelled extremely well for the first mile, better than anything, until rare mistake at the seventh fence probably cost him his chance. Did well to recover but never travelling as well thereafter - looked in lots of trouble when falling though had begun to respond to Ruby's urgings.
Returned after Summer to record workmanlike win at Down Royal. Nothing spectacular but worth noting that the current Champion Chaser finished behind him that day.
Kempton rescheduling can't have suited, still looked booked for second until very bad blunder two out when under the pump. Winner had too much class and speed but subsequent quotes from trainer indicate all was not well, plus the return of Ruby is sure to bring about further improvement as well as a longer race on better ground.
Conclusion: Back Kauto to regain the Gold Cup for a second time! Keep on eye on Looks Like Trouble's track record of 6m 30.30s set back in the year 2000 as well!
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Well I AM a Kauto Star fanboy and started backing him after his Haydock win in 2006. The ground will definately suit him better this year, lets hope it is not so miserable and raining throughout the day and the race.
I think his last three races can be viewed either as:
Gold Cup - bad mistake early on so write it off.
Down Royal - beating Sizing Eurpoe and Chine Rock looks pretty good now.
King George - stable subsequently reported horse was under the weather.
Or:
Gold Cup - Horrendeous mistake and then bad fall when beaten.
Down Royal - Performance well below best beating Sizing Europe a two miler and China Rock by a lot less than Kempes subsequently beat him.
King George - Never looked comfortable and couldn't go with Long Run and was well beaten before mistake.
After decking Kauto Star last year Ruby Walsh has said he will be ridden more sympathetically. This should ensure he is not bullied into a bad mistake but might result in him being too far behind and making up ground late on.
There are too many imponderables in this race. It's 40 years since a horse older than ten has won the race (most winners are 7,8, or 9). Are Kauto Star and Denman too old? Is Imperial Commander's stable under a cloud? Will Long Run jump well enough at Cheltenham, is he too young? Are any of the horses that hit the stats good enough, I doubt it?
I backed Imperial Commander ante post @ 11/2 and a small saver on Kauto Star @ 11/1 a long time ago and will leave it at that. Based on the King George performance Long Run might be special if his jumping holds up, but we don't find out until after the race unfortunately.
At current prices nothing appeals.
I think his last three races can be viewed either as:
Gold Cup - bad mistake early on so write it off.
Down Royal - beating Sizing Eurpoe and Chine Rock looks pretty good now.
King George - stable subsequently reported horse was under the weather.
Or:
Gold Cup - Horrendeous mistake and then bad fall when beaten.
Down Royal - Performance well below best beating Sizing Europe a two miler and China Rock by a lot less than Kempes subsequently beat him.
King George - Never looked comfortable and couldn't go with Long Run and was well beaten before mistake.
After decking Kauto Star last year Ruby Walsh has said he will be ridden more sympathetically. This should ensure he is not bullied into a bad mistake but might result in him being too far behind and making up ground late on.
There are too many imponderables in this race. It's 40 years since a horse older than ten has won the race (most winners are 7,8, or 9). Are Kauto Star and Denman too old? Is Imperial Commander's stable under a cloud? Will Long Run jump well enough at Cheltenham, is he too young? Are any of the horses that hit the stats good enough, I doubt it?
I backed Imperial Commander ante post @ 11/2 and a small saver on Kauto Star @ 11/1 a long time ago and will leave it at that. Based on the King George performance Long Run might be special if his jumping holds up, but we don't find out until after the race unfortunately.
At current prices nothing appeals.
we are getting some beauties from the racing loons today weve got redundant punter using the words tidal bay and trier in the same sentence, and now viva pataca calling a jumping mistake by kauto as rare ,probably made more jumping howlers than any top class horse in the history of the sport,keep it up its entertaing, are you all auditioning for the morning line or atr
Possible poor choice of word.
However, the point that I was trying to make was that Kauto jumps far better on firmer ground.
However, the point that I was trying to make was that Kauto jumps far better on firmer ground.
When he's good he's brilliant when he's bad he effin awful but that's just Kauto. Does no alter the fact no horse I have seen would live with him when he steps up to top gear bar a certain Irish fella I don't need to name.
As for Tidal Bay I would need to be doped to back that mad ferret. Can't believe I backed him in the Arkle things got more squiggles than snakes and ladders. Last horse I want to see winning he'd probably get stuffed at Hexam next time out and make a complete mockery of the game.
As for Tidal Bay I would need to be doped to back that mad ferret. Can't believe I backed him in the Arkle things got more squiggles than snakes and ladders. Last horse I want to see winning he'd probably get stuffed at Hexam next time out and make a complete mockery of the game.
Its a fascinating race because of all the question marks, There are so many ones that like to be up there today and if they do go a few paces too quickly then we could get a right funny old result.
If it doesnt rain i couldnt have Pandorama, who i only think is running because of the owner, IC hasnt been at Cheltes on ground ths quick and god knows what Long Run will do on this ground
I wouldnt be surprised if Tidal or What a Friend sneaked into a place
If it doesnt rain i couldnt have Pandorama, who i only think is running because of the owner, IC hasnt been at Cheltes on ground ths quick and god knows what Long Run will do on this ground
I wouldnt be surprised if Tidal or What a Friend sneaked into a place
Wrong horse broke the record, :(
So disappointed for Kauto Star & Denman - just denied the fairytale result by the young pretender! No longer a pretender now!
Never felt so much emotion watching a horse race - went from the high of watching Kauto and Denman pour it on to that sinking feeling when they started to falter.
So disappointed for Kauto Star & Denman - just denied the fairytale result by the young pretender! No longer a pretender now!
Never felt so much emotion watching a horse race - went from the high of watching Kauto and Denman pour it on to that sinking feeling when they started to falter.
But what two champions they are! Great great memories!
Yes it was a great race, I though the rides Rubty Walsh and Sam Thomas gave their mounts were pretty much perfect and contributed enormously to the overall feel good factor of the race.
Don't underestimate Long Run he looks like he might be a superstar right up with best in recent years. I've missed the boat wth him unfortunately but won't be against him in grade one races again for the next few years.
Don't underestimate Long Run he looks like he might be a superstar right up with best in recent years. I've missed the boat wth him unfortunately but won't be against him in grade one races again for the next few years.
Was surprised Ruby hit the front so early and with hindsight he acted as a perfect pacemaker for LR to set such a fast time. Not taking anything away from Ruby or LR or SWC but wonder if Ruby would do the same again with hindsight? Did say after the race he was trying to hold kauto back a bit so maybe kauto just didnt give him any choice anyway..
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