Michael Dhaguenet - Ruby Walsh rides

indeed if he hacks up on the bridle the 12/1 could look a tad generous!

I wish!!! I backed him almost a year ago for the race. Ruby did say he was an airplane maybe he's ready to take off

dont waste your money,the fall on his chase debut has clearly effected him and is not loving jumping fences at all,love the horse and have backed him every run this season and will not be doing so again,if he is not pulled up during the race then i will be very surprised

TheFormMan - clearly Mullins & Ruby don't agree with you.
Ruby wouldn't risk his relationship with Stewart and Nicholl's unless he has good reason.
It's interesting, as Nicholls has said that AiteenThirtythree is the best novice in the stable.

first of all,i would not expect them to agree,he has been a very good horse to them both and i'm sure they are HOPING that he can bounce back to perform very well,but that is very unlikely to happen,atleast this season anyway,the facts are that mullins was very positive going into his last 2 races and he was very poor on both showings,cheltenham is not the place you should be going with a horse that does not seem to enjoy jumping fences,but if you want to put your money down and take your chance then the best of luck to you.
Secondly,he can choose whatever he likes to ride and it will most certainly not effect his relationship with stewart or nicholl's,very stupid if you think otherwise,they are all professional men,not kids in a playgroung

How can you say he was very poor last time? He got badly hampered 2 out when travelling very well, he may or may not have won but getting hampered didn't aid the cause.

You say he does not enjoy jumping his fences, on debut he jumped beautifully in the Drinmore until coming down. Next time yes he didn't jump well and everything was way out to the right but last time he jumped better, was still out to the right but looked to be enjoying himself until getting hampered.

Im not saying he is going to win or that he is as good as he was before injury but i don't understand some of the points you make.

By his standards it was a poor run and a repeat of that will be way short of what is needed to get anywhere near to winning an RSA and if you actually read my post on page one where i said that it was due to his fall in the Drinmore that has clearly effected his confidence,i agree that he looked brilliant in the Drinmore until that unfortunate mistake and was very much my pick for the RSA straight after that race,but as we have since learned,he has got knowhere near to reproducing that run again.

You speak as though you know more than Willie & Ruby ?
I'm just a normal punter looking for clues.

the clue is to back horses with very strong recent form,not on past achievements,the only thing to take from the fact that ruby has chosen MKD is that he is a previous festival winner,he has won on him many times and has given him the feel of a very special horse,but that was a long time ago and he has not ridden him over fences or at all this season,he is more than likely better that 1833,which is probably right,but TFR form is a mile clear of both of them,you should not listen to anybodys opinion but your own,every trainer is going to tell you how good there own horses are and that they have a great chance,you just have to do the picking yourself,but if you were to ask a 100 people on this forum who they believe is the most likely winner of the RSA,i would be surprised if more than 5 said MKD and as i stated before,i believe he will be pulled up during the race

Well, it will be interesting to revisit this after the race.
If you are indeed correct, I will take my hat off to you.

This horse is dangerous in any staying race he travels amazingly and with Ruby up he will get his jumping sorted. Delivered gradually into the race he has a strong chance if fitter after his last 'impeded' run.

Think Ruby will have taken into account the experience amongst horses Mikael has had this season, he has learned from his jumping mistakes and showed a lot of bottle to recover from his 2 miler, too short for him. to then stay up when hampered. The last race proved his confidence remains intact which was the main worry with him.

He can build on that and is going the right way again. Aiteen may need a little more hustle and bustle experience but who knows he could be the next Denman and do it from the front.

Riding him for sentimental reasons

Not for his recent form

Imsolucky knows

I'd say it's more tactical than sentimental. Mikael is a sign of commitment to Mullins. Now he's got the ride on HF. It might have swayed things more easily. Hurricane & Mikael or Thousand Stars & 1833 ?...i could be, and most probably am, completely wrong.

Apart from the loyalty, Ruby absolutely adores the horse and that mus be part of the reason he wants to stick with him. Most owners are understanding when these things happen as 9/10 their horse gets beat and wouldn't have one anyway.

I've been so impressed by Time for Rupert,even at his best Mickael might not beat him and PN's most certainly won't be winning anything.

10/1 best price now,

Thinking back to what MKD did when it won at Chelt a couple of years back, could you have imagined 10/1 in this race?

I can almost see Mr Seagull asking the same question in the morning - Ruby knows what ability the horse has got and he don't often get it wrong.

Massive leap of faith for anyone backing this imv.

major fan of Mikael, always said he was a machine, electric jumper of hurdles.
Willie and Ruby in fantastic form.
But FormMan correct. Mikael can't jump fences as well as he does hurdles, and flat out gallop at Cheltenham will find him out.
Not even proven at the trip and remember this race is the novices grand national, a real lung burster with few left standing.
Amazing Mikael did not go for the Jewson.

Do you think he will prefer the 3m on decent ground?

I certainly do - even in Ballymore the other year he hit a flat spot and then powered through - looking everything like a future 3m+ horse.

Theres been lots written about this horse and I havent backed him and I dont know if i'll back him, i even stated elsewhere on here if I was connections i'd miss Cheltenham altogehter, but heres my tupennies worth for the hell of it.

People have been a bit quick to right this fella off when i look at it now imo. I actually dont think the Sun Alliance he won was all that strong a race looking at it (beating Karabak the hound) but he did slaugther Pandorama over hurdles and there were a couple of decent tools in that RSA so credit where its due. His hurdles form though is not what really interests me, its this season over fences.


First off after a 593 day absence he makes his come back over fences in a grade 1, tanks his way through the race, jumps immaculate and bar that bad step after the last he had not one, but two future dual grade 1 winners in behind(and one of those placed in an arkle today also). Very unlucky.

Second run, only 15 days later in another grade 1. Which was a wrong call imo but I suppose they wanted to get a handle on were he might be going futher down the line. Anyhow, 15 days after a 593 day absence and a tumble on that start aswell. I would have been amazed if this horse didn't bounce, which imo he did, then throw into the mix he's not a two miler. I can easily forgive that run.

The next run is a bit of a puzzler travelled well enough till he was hampered, but was soon back on the bridle and closed up the majority of the ground he'd lost and looked like playing a major role in the finish but he got in tight to the last and then looked drunk at one stage on the run-in but more or less retains the same distance all the way to the line.

You've got to respect Willie's decision in bringing this horse over, ruby for turning down 1833, which is no rag and we know how highly Barber and Nicholls rate him. His sire's progeny though do show a preference for soft ground and he does have a high-ish roundy action and he has run down a couple of fences to his right on the odd occasion.

Major head scratcher!

«    1          Mikael D'Haguenet (FR) 5/2F     5    11-7     W P Mullins    155    *    *    »
R Walsh
   


«    2    1¾      Karabak (FR) 4/1    6    11-7     Alan King    153    *    *    »
A P McCoy
   


«    3    3¾      Diamond Harry 4/1    6    11-7     Nick Williams    155    *    *    »
Timmy Murphy
   


«    4    nk      China Rock (IRE) 25/1    6    11-7     M F Morris    130    *    *    »
N P Madden
   


«    5    3¾      Knockara Beau (IRE) 14/1    6    11-7     George Charlton    145    *    *    »
Jan Faltejsek
   


«    6    10      The Nightingale (FR) 14/1    6    11-7     Paul Nicholls    —    *    *    »
Christian Williams
   


«    7    6      Realt Dubh (IRE) 20/1    5    11-7     Noel Meade    135    *    *    »
P Carberry
   


«    8    1½      Mad Max (IRE) 6/1    7    11-7     Nicky Henderson    —    *    *    »
Barry Geraghty




Weak race?

Was far from weak but it doesn't alter the fact it was along time ago and since then  he's shown no real sparkle other than on the gallops. Even with all the will in the world Willie Mullins couldn't possibly get him back to his best in the short time it's been since his last run. It's not like he's been out for quiet runs and a slow build up to Cheltenham he's been trying his best and so far he's failed.

Great to see him back but I think he needs just a wee bit more time yet before we see him firing on all cylinders so I'd be waiting till Punchestowns to be getting the AP money back I expect to lose on him today.

I actually dont think the Sun Alliance he won was all that strong a race looking at it (beating Karabak the hound) but he did slaugther Pandorama over hurdles and there were a couple of decent tools in that RSA so credit where its due

Karabak is a dog, Knockara Beau is a handicapper, China rock has won 3 races since, beating 2 handicappers and Sizing Europe over nigh on 3 miles, Realth Dubh better over shorter, Mad Max has won twice since beating a handicapper and another dog in Somersby and is in the surgery more than he is on a racecourse, Diamond Harry, fair enough but even he won the hennesy with 10st on his back. How many future grade one winners over a similar distance have come out of that race in the space of 2 years ?

A decent race, not vintage imo

What did impress me that day Goretski was the maturity he showed the way he came between horses and eased away from them. It's very seldom about what you beat as a novice that outlines a horses future but more about how you beat him. MD'H was unfortunate to be injured or I doubt we'd be having this conversation. The horse oozed class when he won the Ballymore and Ruby was doing cartwheels of expectations after his performance.

You forget one thing these horses were all novices and at the top of their game when they ran against another novice. What the others have done since has virtually no meaning.

Nicanor Denman Refinement would be a classic example totally meaningless what the other two did.

I agree with you Rondetto, Im not knocking the horse at all. This horse has a huge engine and we all know the regard in which he's held by trainer, jockeys, owners etc . Your point is also valid reagrding denman's rsa aswell, i see what you mean.

The more i look at this horse the more i can make a case for it and if u'd asked me a week ago i wouldn't have backed it with stolen money! Not saying it will win but when you add up all the little pointers

Ok here's the plan. If you're the type of guy who falls into manure and comes out clean then back him, if not then please leave him alone because I want him to win.

Time for Rupert will do though[;)]

It's 9.8 on here now, with good money waiting.

Comments from Willie in the RP this morning.
After a recent piece of work, ''Ruby got off him positively beaming.''

best horse in the field easy at he's best.

told you so

that was one of my bigger bets of today down the drain!! was going well i though, it it stayed on its feet would of pissed in!!!

back to the drawing board with this fella,will they ever win another race with this fella

big priced ante-post time next mad max - cee bee - french opera!! please just a place any of them!!!

Both mullins horses were travelling well... but one has fallen in 66% of his chases, and the other in 50%.

Wuda won I'm gutted, will they go hurdling at Punchestown and keep him a novice 4 next year now

Why can't Mullins novice chasers jump?