Cheltenham Festival
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Nagging doubt in my mind about this one in the Neptune. Beaten rubbish by long distances in it's 2 races, no winners to come out of them, time furlong by furlong slower than times put up by both First Lieutenant (with a Grade 2 winner, Hidden Cyclone to come out and win), plus Oscar Time.
Just wonder should First Lieutenant be 3 times the price of So Young and to an extent Oscar Time, given the Lieutenant's breeding, by Presenting and Oscar Time, Oscar. Be good to soft on Wednesday or even quicker.
Just wonder should First Lieutenant be 3 times the price of So Young and to an extent Oscar Time, given the Lieutenant's breeding, by Presenting and Oscar Time, Oscar. Be good to soft on Wednesday or even quicker.
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Sorry, Oscars Well.
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oscars well has a MASSIVE chance in this .
Form working out ( hidden cyclone , fl , zaidpour ) |
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Mullins hype horse. Get plenty of them during the week. Only good things for irish this week are Quevaga and Chicago Grey. Perhaps Oscars in the neptune. Peak Raider could have won the grand annual but is far too well handicappd to get in and needs heavy ground as well.
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Price seems to have contracted across the boards after declaration stage today...i wondered whether Ruby had comne out and said he defo rides it over Rock On Ruby, which would have the knock-on effect of Ruby dissing the Bob's Worth form...just a thought
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I would be very worried about Walsh's fitness and rustiness he could be a disadvantage amongst the best riders especially after his fall recently. Think McCoy currently would be better up on Big Bucks than Walsh certainly.
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So Young - ridiculous price. Cannot be this price for Grade 1. FL massive value.
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I like anything from Gigginstown Mouse Morris sends,though I don't think he holds Weapons Amnesty in the same regard as War of Attrition, when asked he said he wasn't the best he'd trained by any stretch but I just don't feel he'd be there if they didn't think he'd go close as he's a chaser in the making and plenty at home for him after chelts
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everything ok neill ????????
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 ya why do you ask? |
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just wondered why you was discussing weapons amnesty ??
but realised you were prob on about first lieutenant |
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ya sorry jesus didn't even notice it, O'Leary picks such war mongering, adversarial names. Good thing you mentioned it, who knows what I might have written on the betting slip
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where's this quote about him not saying he's the best by any stretch. I love the way this horse moves, very fluent.
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A bit annoying - seemed like a horse that should have been hyped up a lot more than it was to me, but i didn't back it because i wanted to see what the ground was like. Can't really take 7/2 on good ground...
Still, unbelievably impressive on his 2 runs. If you put the runner up last time on 130ish, So Young ends up about 160 - absolutely nurdered it! I love it when horses quicken away and look like they still aren't in top gear. |
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''So Young - ridiculous price. Cannot be this price for Grade 1. FL massive value.''
There's not much depth to this Grade 1, though, is there? Eric, i wouldnt disagree with you re. your point about Ruby's fitness, but i was trying to explain the market move y'day and the betting public have a history of quickly latching on to Ruby's selected when he's had a choice to make. |
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^ Like Zaidpour did against trees. Trouble is when put into a real race he couldnt reproduce it.
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I take your point Dan, but the second, Big Game Hunter (rated 124 against So Young), didn't do anything for the form on Wednesday. Well beaten by Canaly, with the 117 rated Henro Boy in 2nd. The form, to me anyhow, does not warrant being fav in this Grade 1. Correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe any winners have come out of the races he's won, so far. He's beaten trees.
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Yeah true, i didn't see big game hunter had run since. the 2nd -5th have all run stinkers on their next start! Maybe he has just found 2 very soft races.
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reading between the lines ali, i reckon youll be laying so young and backing f lieutenent,
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also neill d,weapons amnesty is not trained by mouse morris
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Correct elisjohn. By the way, does no-one need anything from you today to ward off the cold?
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 late start today, and early finish |
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Ya hes not is he
, I'm paraphrasing that Morris quote, It was after he beat Zaidpour and Hidden Cyclone, he definitely said something to that effect though |
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The price disparity between So Young and First Lieutenant is a joke. I haven't seen a horse hyped up this much for years. Massive hype horses like Dunguib and Cue Card have at least done it on the track at some point. And despite being able to make some reasoning behind it, FL beat 2 graded winners justifiably. 12/1 vs 100/30 ARE YOU F'KING KIDDING ME? So Young, as has been pointed out beat BIG GAME HUNTER, and in another thread I am on record as saying that my mum could beat that, which was proven when my mum cantered all over him last week. I like Willie Mullins a lot, I think he's class and the times I've met him he's been an absolute gentleman, but some people who back his horses down to these prices need serious brain surgery. fwiw MDH is in the same bracket.
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And by the way I'm not saying So Young can't win like i am MDH. He could be phenomenal, and those who have backed it at 100/30 will claim to be the shrewdest people in the world. When in truth they will be probably be the most broke by the end of the week.
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Well I'm on at 20/1 so how shrewd am I
Oh and yes it will be another lovely free arb Eric before you ask |
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very true gashboy. i actually probably would have backed so young a few weeks back when he was 7/1 but bookies are just sucking people into backing this thing at frankly disgusting prices.
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gashboy whens your mums next outing?
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How are the bookies sucking people in? This horses owner is a big punter. It's quite obvious connections have been backing it for the last couple of weeks and went in big yesterday. What are the bookies going to do? Push the price out?
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lol Geoff
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Sown doubt into punters' minds now, as Mr Mullins has quoted he might run in the Supreme instead. Drifting for the Neptune, backed for the Supreme.
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Hes 9/2 for the Supreme with Morals wtf [smiley:crazy]..Im a fan of the horse but no way should he be 9/2 for the Supreme..
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Ha ha ha this trainer really plays up to his reputation .. do you think he reads the forum, would imagine most trainers do, then changes plans if he isnt annoying everyone enough and getting the attention he desires.
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Whole thing is a farce. I've got the Supreme sewn up antepost. I've had to back SY at 8/1 with PP cos I don't want this thing to run and ruin all my hard work by winning and doing my brains. I hope it runs in the Neptune.
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Compliment paid to First Lieutenant by Hidden Cyclone.
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agree with Gashboy, want So Young to run in the Neptune as I've backed Zaidpour for the supreme, and backed oscar well for neptune, I think that oscar well will hammer so young!!
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First Lieutenant one of the most over priced horses I've seen at Chelt. Grade 1 winner confirmed for the race and he was 12/1 vs a field with little strength in depth. Utter madness.
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compliment ali,he had 20 lbs in hand on these today
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Still got to do the job elisjohn.
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Just been through the race before I read this and reached same conclusion as Ali so backed both FL and OW.
OW should be favourite, is with Paddy Power who are probably a bit closer to the Irish form and whispers and would definitely be if trained by Mullins. As it is, his trainer is an absolute legend and her interview after his win the last day was very telling. His breeding suggests the likely better ground he will encounter should not be a problem. Oscars Well is very good and First Lieutenant is overpriced. |