Cheltenham Festival
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09 Mar 11
17:18
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Date Joined:
30 Mar 08
With the five day entries out today and the field sizes quickly diminishing I thought it was about time I got stuck in properly into some of the big handicaps. During the festival I will be putting up selections for all the races on my blog ( www.cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com )while trying to go into more detail on the handicaps mainly due to time constraints as I'll be at the course all week. Below is my preliminary summary of the the Spinal Research Handicap Chase. Similar to my blog for this current national hunt season the initial whittling down will be done from a stats based approach.
The Statistics
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
b) Improving RPRs throughout the season (Allow a novice with fluctuations)
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. So either I'd look for a horse with improving RPRs or a novice.
2) Age
a) Age 7 - 10
6 year olds have a shocking record in the race as the stamina test is usually too much for them at such an early stage in their careers. Also those that are aged over 10 are likely to be very exposed and so not open to much improvement.
3) Weight/OR
a) OR 143 or below (10 of the last 10 winners, 15 of the last 20 placed horses)
b) 11st 3 or below, pref 10st 12 or below (10/10, 16/20)
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights. For example a horse rated 150+ hasn't won in 28 years. 6 of the first 7 home last year were rated 143 or below.
4) Runs
a) 2-4 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 11 Chase starts
c) Max 5 three mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
5) Course
a) Cheltenham experience is a plus, though not necessarily good form. The last 10 winners had the following form over the course 8470/021129/236/22P40/-/P4F/1/3PF03/5213/-/.
6) Distance
a) Won over 24f+
b) Best RPR over 24f+
Horses stepping up in trip don't have a great record in the race as such a strong run 3 mile race at the festival isn't the ideal contest to try a horse in at the trip for the first time.
7) Wins
a) Won current season
b) Won a handicap unless a novice
Obviously you want a horse in great form, if it can win earlier in the season it probably can't win in the cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival.
8) Season form
a) Placed in class A or won Class 2 (Unless a novice)
b) Top 3 LTO, preferably won
You want form in top races, not many horses graduate from run of the mill class 3/4 handicaps to Cheltenham festival winners
9) Experience
a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser
Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.
10) Field Size
a) Won in 16+ field
It is likely we'll be faced by a maximum field of 24 for the race and so you want a horse who's shown they can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field before.
The Results
This is an extremely strong stats race with 9 of the last 10 winners scoring 14+ out of 17. The only failure was 50/1 winner Joe's Edge who had dropped quickly down the weights that season and was running in the Gold Cup 12 months previously. There's nothing of his calibre low down the weights this year so I'd definitely be looking for something that meets a score of 14+.
17 - Wolf Moon
16 - Definity
15 - Skippers Brigg, Adams Island
14 - Blazing Bailey, Carole's Legacy, Quantitativeeasing, Den of Iniquity, Frankies Anson
Quantitiveeasing and Definity look unlikey runners, Den of Iniquity and Frankie Anson I doubt would have the class. Blazing Bailey is up against it off his new mark but he will no doubt run a very solid race. Skippers Brigg I would have question marks about the trip and with quick ground it's unlikely his trainer will let him take his chance also.
Wolf Moon come out top but he's 6lbs out of the weights and also has a 5lb penalty to carry; so he'll have to run off a 11lb higher mark than he was initially allocated for the race. However, he has great course form and seems to be slowly getting his act together to could be of interest if he creeps into the race. Carole's Legacy is also interesting but she's a bit higher up in the weight than a usual winner and also still holds an entry in the Mares Hurdle.
Selection: Adams Island - 0.5pt E/W NRNB 33/1
The horse I've come down on at the prices is Adams Island who should be roughly half the price in my book. Being a pointer he was always going to come into his own over fences but started of well in a National Hunt Flat race winning by 13l after being well supported throughout the day. Then on his first hurdle start he beat Aiteen Thirtythree by 6l who of course has gone on to much better things since. Following a few disappointing hurdle starts (went off favourite against Wymott in a grade 2 on only his second start) he was sent over fences this season.
He has looked progressive and opened up with a 12l defeat at Aintree. However, that was only over 20f and when stepped up to 3 miles next time he showed his true colours winning by 6l. Next time out he ran another great race at Exeter (proving he can handle a Undulating track) being only beaten 5l by Wymott off level weights (if you add riders claim back on). The form of the race has worked out very well with Wymott, Shalimar Fromentro and Definity franking the form since.
Since the turn of the year he's had 3 starts. The first was at Doncaster when he beat Mostly Bob giving him 6lbs. Mostly Bob has won over C+D since in handicap pointing to Adams Island run being worth something around the 140 mark. The third Lake Legend has also won since and the useful On Borrowed Wings was miles behind in 4th. He was then upped to open handicap and was made 4/1f in the race Blazing Bailey won at Ffos Las, that day he showed up well for a long way before his jumping let him down. The experience should have done him the world of good and he came back with a nice performance in the Pendil behind Captain Chris. Giving Captain Chris 4lbs he was only beaten 13l which in the context of a handicap off 133 is pretty solid form. The race was also over 20f and stepped back up to 24f there has to be more improvement to come. He looks genuinely progressive and is definitely going the right way (especially if his jumping holds up).
Also it must be noted his 5lb conditional is likely to be back on which will mean he will run of a feather weight of 10st 1. It must be noted conditionals have a good record at the Festival, for example of the top of my head Buena Vista and Great Endeavour won with riders taking weight off last year, as did Something Wells the year before. The one worry is it is thought he may need things to go his own way which he is unlikely to get but in the hope his jumping is improving the price of 33/1 seems value. Novies have a great record in this year (3 of last 7 winners) yet he seems to have gone relatively unnoticed. Also the moving of the 2nd last into the home straight this year could also be seen as a slight positive for front runners as it should suit them more, as shown by Little Josh in this years Paddy Power.
Another one worth considering would be CRESCENT ISLAND at a big price. If you took out his last run he'd score the necessary 14+. The reason I say this is that he hasn't gone well RH before and has infact run out twice. Back to a LH track he looks sure to improve. The form of his win this year has been working out impeccably and too he has placed at the festival before when 3rd in the 2009 Jewsons (7 of the last 13 winners have been in the first 4 at the festival before). He still has multiple entries though
www.cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com
GL EC
The Statistics
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
b) Improving RPRs throughout the season (Allow a novice with fluctuations)
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. So either I'd look for a horse with improving RPRs or a novice.
2) Age
a) Age 7 - 10
6 year olds have a shocking record in the race as the stamina test is usually too much for them at such an early stage in their careers. Also those that are aged over 10 are likely to be very exposed and so not open to much improvement.
3) Weight/OR
a) OR 143 or below (10 of the last 10 winners, 15 of the last 20 placed horses)
b) 11st 3 or below, pref 10st 12 or below (10/10, 16/20)
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights. For example a horse rated 150+ hasn't won in 28 years. 6 of the first 7 home last year were rated 143 or below.
4) Runs
a) 2-4 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 11 Chase starts
c) Max 5 three mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
5) Course
a) Cheltenham experience is a plus, though not necessarily good form. The last 10 winners had the following form over the course 8470/021129/236/22P40/-/P4F/1/3PF03/5213/-/.
6) Distance
a) Won over 24f+
b) Best RPR over 24f+
Horses stepping up in trip don't have a great record in the race as such a strong run 3 mile race at the festival isn't the ideal contest to try a horse in at the trip for the first time.
7) Wins
a) Won current season
b) Won a handicap unless a novice
Obviously you want a horse in great form, if it can win earlier in the season it probably can't win in the cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival.
8) Season form
a) Placed in class A or won Class 2 (Unless a novice)
b) Top 3 LTO, preferably won
You want form in top races, not many horses graduate from run of the mill class 3/4 handicaps to Cheltenham festival winners
9) Experience
a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser
Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.
10) Field Size
a) Won in 16+ field
It is likely we'll be faced by a maximum field of 24 for the race and so you want a horse who's shown they can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field before.
The Results
This is an extremely strong stats race with 9 of the last 10 winners scoring 14+ out of 17. The only failure was 50/1 winner Joe's Edge who had dropped quickly down the weights that season and was running in the Gold Cup 12 months previously. There's nothing of his calibre low down the weights this year so I'd definitely be looking for something that meets a score of 14+.
17 - Wolf Moon
16 - Definity
15 - Skippers Brigg, Adams Island
14 - Blazing Bailey, Carole's Legacy, Quantitativeeasing, Den of Iniquity, Frankies Anson
Quantitiveeasing and Definity look unlikey runners, Den of Iniquity and Frankie Anson I doubt would have the class. Blazing Bailey is up against it off his new mark but he will no doubt run a very solid race. Skippers Brigg I would have question marks about the trip and with quick ground it's unlikely his trainer will let him take his chance also.
Wolf Moon come out top but he's 6lbs out of the weights and also has a 5lb penalty to carry; so he'll have to run off a 11lb higher mark than he was initially allocated for the race. However, he has great course form and seems to be slowly getting his act together to could be of interest if he creeps into the race. Carole's Legacy is also interesting but she's a bit higher up in the weight than a usual winner and also still holds an entry in the Mares Hurdle.
Selection: Adams Island - 0.5pt E/W NRNB 33/1
The horse I've come down on at the prices is Adams Island who should be roughly half the price in my book. Being a pointer he was always going to come into his own over fences but started of well in a National Hunt Flat race winning by 13l after being well supported throughout the day. Then on his first hurdle start he beat Aiteen Thirtythree by 6l who of course has gone on to much better things since. Following a few disappointing hurdle starts (went off favourite against Wymott in a grade 2 on only his second start) he was sent over fences this season.
He has looked progressive and opened up with a 12l defeat at Aintree. However, that was only over 20f and when stepped up to 3 miles next time he showed his true colours winning by 6l. Next time out he ran another great race at Exeter (proving he can handle a Undulating track) being only beaten 5l by Wymott off level weights (if you add riders claim back on). The form of the race has worked out very well with Wymott, Shalimar Fromentro and Definity franking the form since.
Since the turn of the year he's had 3 starts. The first was at Doncaster when he beat Mostly Bob giving him 6lbs. Mostly Bob has won over C+D since in handicap pointing to Adams Island run being worth something around the 140 mark. The third Lake Legend has also won since and the useful On Borrowed Wings was miles behind in 4th. He was then upped to open handicap and was made 4/1f in the race Blazing Bailey won at Ffos Las, that day he showed up well for a long way before his jumping let him down. The experience should have done him the world of good and he came back with a nice performance in the Pendil behind Captain Chris. Giving Captain Chris 4lbs he was only beaten 13l which in the context of a handicap off 133 is pretty solid form. The race was also over 20f and stepped back up to 24f there has to be more improvement to come. He looks genuinely progressive and is definitely going the right way (especially if his jumping holds up).
Also it must be noted his 5lb conditional is likely to be back on which will mean he will run of a feather weight of 10st 1. It must be noted conditionals have a good record at the Festival, for example of the top of my head Buena Vista and Great Endeavour won with riders taking weight off last year, as did Something Wells the year before. The one worry is it is thought he may need things to go his own way which he is unlikely to get but in the hope his jumping is improving the price of 33/1 seems value. Novies have a great record in this year (3 of last 7 winners) yet he seems to have gone relatively unnoticed. Also the moving of the 2nd last into the home straight this year could also be seen as a slight positive for front runners as it should suit them more, as shown by Little Josh in this years Paddy Power.
Another one worth considering would be CRESCENT ISLAND at a big price. If you took out his last run he'd score the necessary 14+. The reason I say this is that he hasn't gone well RH before and has infact run out twice. Back to a LH track he looks sure to improve. The form of his win this year has been working out impeccably and too he has placed at the festival before when 3rd in the 2009 Jewsons (7 of the last 13 winners have been in the first 4 at the festival before). He still has multiple entries though
www.cheltenhamfestival2011.blogspot.com
GL EC
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Thanks - excellent stuff - will compare with my assessment and see where we differ.
this was my analysis using a similar method of statistics.
1st 4 last time out (16/20)
Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in last 2 completed start (18/20)
Aged 7 - 10 (26/29)
Carried 11st or less (13/16) including last 11 winners
Carried 11st 2lbs or less (26/29)
Rated at least 127 (20/20)
Rated 146 or less (18/20) the last 11 were 143 or less (11/11)
Never won off a higher hcap mark than the one running off (18/20)
RPR of at least 134+ this season (18/20)
Ran in the last 66 days (18/20)
Ran in a Graded / listed / Grade A (C1) chase (18/20)
Won a chase over at least 2m4f (20/20)
Won a chase over at least 2m7f (18/20)
Won at least a class 3 chase (16/16)
Ran in between 4 and 29 chases (19/20)
Won between 2 and 9 chases (20/20)
Won by a 1st - 4th season chaser (19/20)
If ran at Cheltenham before had finished in the 1st 3 at least once (14/16) exeption was 4th in this race and 4th in cleeve hurdle
Started career over jumps (19/20)
Blazing bailey x18/20 or x26/29 weight x19/20 flat bred
Rare bob x18/20 or x26/29 weight x14/16 chelt form
Chief dan george x18/20 or x26/29 weight x26/29 age
Great endeavour x18/20 or x26/29 weight x18/20 dist
Fair along x18/20 or x26/29 weight x19/20 flat bred
Tatenen x18/20 or x26/29 weight x16/20 last time
Caroles leagacy x26/29 weight x11/11 or
Exmoor ranger x11/11 or x16/20 last time x13/16 weight
Bensalem x18/20 dist x20/20 chase wins x13/16 weight
Crescent Island x16/20 last time x18/20 dist
Reve De Sivola x16/20 last time x26/29 age x20/20 chase wins
King Fontaine x19/20 last time
Sunnyhillboy x18/20 dist x18/20 sr
Ogee x18/20 form x19/20 flat bred
Quantitiveeasing x26/29 age x14/16 chelt form x19/20 chase runs
Far More Serious x26/29 age x14/16 chelt form x18/20 graded run
Razor royale x16/20 last time x18/20 form x18/20 rpr
The Sawyer x16/20 last time x26/29 age x19/20 chase runs
Skippers Brig x13/16 weight
Definity x20/20 chase wins x18/20 chase runs x18/20 dist
Slippers percy x18/20 rpr x20/20 chase wins
Swing Bill x18/20 dist x19/20 flat bred
Den of iniquity x16/20 last time x14/16 chelt form x18/20 sr
Adams Island
Gentle Ranger x19/20 last time x18/20 rpr x18/20 sr
The Rainbow Hunter x20/20 chase wins x18/20 dist x18/20 graded run
Pomme Tiepy x16/20 last time x14/16 chelt form
The Sliotar x19/20 last time x18/20 form x20/20 chase wins
Safari Adventures x19/20 last time x18/20 dist
Carrickmines x14/16 chelt form
No panic x16/20 last time x18/20 form x18/20 rpr
Amygayle x16/20 last time x14/16 chelt form
Le burf x16/20 last time x18/20 form x18/20 dist
Frankie anson x20/20 or x20/20 wins x18/20 dist
Wolf moon x20/20 or x20/20 wins x18/20 grade ran
Ballyvesey x20/20 or x20/20 wins x26/29 age
Quattrocento x20/20 or x16/20 last time x18/20 graded run
SHORTLIST
Skippers brig
Adams island
Carrickmines
1st 4 last time out (16/20)
Finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd in last 2 completed start (18/20)
Aged 7 - 10 (26/29)
Carried 11st or less (13/16) including last 11 winners
Carried 11st 2lbs or less (26/29)
Rated at least 127 (20/20)
Rated 146 or less (18/20) the last 11 were 143 or less (11/11)
Never won off a higher hcap mark than the one running off (18/20)
RPR of at least 134+ this season (18/20)
Ran in the last 66 days (18/20)
Ran in a Graded / listed / Grade A (C1) chase (18/20)
Won a chase over at least 2m4f (20/20)
Won a chase over at least 2m7f (18/20)
Won at least a class 3 chase (16/16)
Ran in between 4 and 29 chases (19/20)
Won between 2 and 9 chases (20/20)
Won by a 1st - 4th season chaser (19/20)
If ran at Cheltenham before had finished in the 1st 3 at least once (14/16) exeption was 4th in this race and 4th in cleeve hurdle
Started career over jumps (19/20)
Blazing bailey x18/20 or x26/29 weight x19/20 flat bred
Rare bob x18/20 or x26/29 weight x14/16 chelt form
Chief dan george x18/20 or x26/29 weight x26/29 age
Great endeavour x18/20 or x26/29 weight x18/20 dist
Fair along x18/20 or x26/29 weight x19/20 flat bred
Tatenen x18/20 or x26/29 weight x16/20 last time
Caroles leagacy x26/29 weight x11/11 or
Exmoor ranger x11/11 or x16/20 last time x13/16 weight
Bensalem x18/20 dist x20/20 chase wins x13/16 weight
Crescent Island x16/20 last time x18/20 dist
Reve De Sivola x16/20 last time x26/29 age x20/20 chase wins
King Fontaine x19/20 last time
Sunnyhillboy x18/20 dist x18/20 sr
Ogee x18/20 form x19/20 flat bred
Quantitiveeasing x26/29 age x14/16 chelt form x19/20 chase runs
Far More Serious x26/29 age x14/16 chelt form x18/20 graded run
Razor royale x16/20 last time x18/20 form x18/20 rpr
The Sawyer x16/20 last time x26/29 age x19/20 chase runs
Skippers Brig x13/16 weight
Definity x20/20 chase wins x18/20 chase runs x18/20 dist
Slippers percy x18/20 rpr x20/20 chase wins
Swing Bill x18/20 dist x19/20 flat bred
Den of iniquity x16/20 last time x14/16 chelt form x18/20 sr
Adams Island
Gentle Ranger x19/20 last time x18/20 rpr x18/20 sr
The Rainbow Hunter x20/20 chase wins x18/20 dist x18/20 graded run
Pomme Tiepy x16/20 last time x14/16 chelt form
The Sliotar x19/20 last time x18/20 form x20/20 chase wins
Safari Adventures x19/20 last time x18/20 dist
Carrickmines x14/16 chelt form
No panic x16/20 last time x18/20 form x18/20 rpr
Amygayle x16/20 last time x14/16 chelt form
Le burf x16/20 last time x18/20 form x18/20 dist
Frankie anson x20/20 or x20/20 wins x18/20 dist
Wolf moon x20/20 or x20/20 wins x18/20 grade ran
Ballyvesey x20/20 or x20/20 wins x26/29 age
Quattrocento x20/20 or x16/20 last time x18/20 graded run
SHORTLIST
Skippers brig
Adams island
Carrickmines
I made an error and eliminated Adams Island at the final stage for not having won a class 3 race (I checked again, and he has), so he's been re-instated as a selection alomg with Skippers Brig (following the defection of both Junior and Billie Magern).
Thanks!
Thanks!
I Like king Fontaine @ 40/1 how does he fit with the trends?
stats stats stats..... after clouting every second fence Bensalem wins hard on the snaff and theyll be pullin birch out of his legs for the following week
LOL ive spent 2 hours on this race and was gutted when i saw this thread but thankfully mines isnt fancied. Will post him tomo once ive got my wedge on.
HI EC.....Historical trends for the 2009 fest W Hill,may be useful to compare against your own
Irish poor 2wins 2 places in 16 yrs
16/16 winners Official Rating between 127-150
15/16 won over at least 3 miles
14/17 max weight 10st 12lb
11/17 won h,cap from nov onwards
Only one novice winner 2004
No fav since 1994
11/16 won handicap within last 3 starts
10/15 winners max 4 starts that season
Prior to 2008 winner previous 11 no more than 66 days since last run
Not had a good look yet.......keep up the good work EC and others,the winners in there just waiting,no screaming to be picked.
Irish poor 2wins 2 places in 16 yrs
16/16 winners Official Rating between 127-150
15/16 won over at least 3 miles
14/17 max weight 10st 12lb
11/17 won h,cap from nov onwards
Only one novice winner 2004
No fav since 1994
11/16 won handicap within last 3 starts
10/15 winners max 4 starts that season
Prior to 2008 winner previous 11 no more than 66 days since last run
Not had a good look yet.......keep up the good work EC and others,the winners in there just waiting,no screaming to be picked.
CV he was another one with Crescent Island I was going to mention as a maybe. Scores 13... but two of the four failures are down to his poor performance last time. If you forgive that run then he's definitely a contender and remains progressive.
When the market was initially reinstated this morning he was at 200 at one point!
When the market was initially reinstated this morning he was at 200 at one point!
Thanks EC, I am a huge believer in forgiving a horse one bad run, even started a thread on it which I might dig up now.
Think he was going fine until that mistake at the 6th last then pulled up before the last.
Think he was going fine until that mistake at the 6th last then pulled up before the last.
good luck next week ec and thanks for the previews, i have no doubt your hard work will be rewarded
you mentioned ogee on one of your recent blog posts, is he out of the equation now or still one to keep onside?
you mentioned ogee on one of your recent blog posts, is he out of the equation now or still one to keep onside?
i wonder if "steve" (the guy who won the jackpot at exeter) wastes his time looking through stats 
i wonder if "steve" would find the time what with having his nads licked by assorted ladies of the night 24 hours a day for the next ten years.........
Stats for Cheltenaham is the worst form of backfitting during the year. How can previous results indicate future winners? Adams Island needs 6 miles in a bog to be at this best. He might win a Midlands National but he won't get in the the first ten in this race. Had Bensaelm or The Package won last year would we have backfitted a different selection? Just look at the market the front four are exactly the type of horse that are best equipped to win this race not a plodder that Rebecca Curtis is laying out for a National.
Great Endeavour for me (backed yesterday at 9/1)
Trusting the gut with this one
Trusting the gut with this one
Can any horse really be handicapped to win back to back festival handicaps?
Cheers Tucho - I definitely wouldn't rule him out as they mentioned he would come on for the run on saturday. However, I think there's a doubt he'd run in the race as I believe he's a horse they've often said takes quite a lot out of him. Guessing they just left him in so they can take a view last minute as they've mentioned alternative entries Aintree/Ayr.
Thanks TradeFair for the constructive insight. The fact the winners of the handicaps at last years festival were 33/1, 25/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1 and 4/1 suggest it's not that easy. Surely the fact that Adams Island could run such a good race against Captain Chris last time over 20f rounds Kempton means that considering he's a 6 miler he'll find improvement at Cheltenham over 3 miles+.
FFT of the ones at the top Great Endeavour would by my first choice and an idea of a possible saver with a few outsiders. Bensalem still needs to prove he can jump and there has to be a worry how he's be finishing his races after a serious bout of pneumonia over the summer. Sunnyhillboy is a ridiculous price and is merely what it is because he's been tipped up by Hugh Taylor and is owned by JP McManus. Reve De Sivola is a horrible price as well - not well handicapped, question marks over trip and can't jump well enough.
Great Endeavour on the other hand is well thought of having a GC entry and clearly needs decent ground. Step up in trip should suit being a PTP winner but as I have said it's not ideal stepping up in trip in such a competitive race. Also its been said they're going to put some headgear on him and as Steeplechasings post showed David Pipe is the headgear king.
Other horses I've got on a longlist for a bet are;
Fair Along - Should improve for faster run race compared to last time, loves the course. Bit high in weights though for a usual winner?
Carole's Legacy - Worried about weight though, Fair Along seems classier off a similar weight
Crescent Island - as mentioned
Ogee - as mentioned
Great Endevour - as mentioned
King Fontaine - If last run forgiven he's up there
Thanks TradeFair for the constructive insight. The fact the winners of the handicaps at last years festival were 33/1, 25/1, 18/1, 16/1, 16/1, 14/1, 14/1, 12/1, 9/1 and 4/1 suggest it's not that easy. Surely the fact that Adams Island could run such a good race against Captain Chris last time over 20f rounds Kempton means that considering he's a 6 miler he'll find improvement at Cheltenham over 3 miles+.
FFT of the ones at the top Great Endeavour would by my first choice and an idea of a possible saver with a few outsiders. Bensalem still needs to prove he can jump and there has to be a worry how he's be finishing his races after a serious bout of pneumonia over the summer. Sunnyhillboy is a ridiculous price and is merely what it is because he's been tipped up by Hugh Taylor and is owned by JP McManus. Reve De Sivola is a horrible price as well - not well handicapped, question marks over trip and can't jump well enough.
Great Endeavour on the other hand is well thought of having a GC entry and clearly needs decent ground. Step up in trip should suit being a PTP winner but as I have said it's not ideal stepping up in trip in such a competitive race. Also its been said they're going to put some headgear on him and as Steeplechasings post showed David Pipe is the headgear king.
Other horses I've got on a longlist for a bet are;
Fair Along - Should improve for faster run race compared to last time, loves the course. Bit high in weights though for a usual winner?
Carole's Legacy - Worried about weight though, Fair Along seems classier off a similar weight
Crescent Island - as mentioned
Ogee - as mentioned
Great Endevour - as mentioned
King Fontaine - If last run forgiven he's up there
It is the regard in which Pipe holds the horse that has largely led me to back him. Backed off the boards for the PP and disappointed (Timmy's frustration said it all imo given what he did up the run in) There was also talk of him going for the Paddy Power and Hennessey double at one point
Ok he received a lot of weight from Poq nto but he ran on well all the way to the line, which leads me to believe a step up will suit.
Ok he received a lot of weight from Poq nto but he ran on well all the way to the line, which leads me to believe a step up will suit.
His run the last day was fine but it was a 3 runner race and Captain Chris could have won as far as he liked. Adams Island's jumping went to pieces in Ffos Las and a fast pace around Cheltenham in a big field will find him out. I'd much rather than ran the horse in the Midlands National in uttoxeter.
BENSALEM is the bet of the festival for me!!im absolutely lumping on, on the day!!
gl
gl
paddy power fallers insurance might be worth doin??????????
haha hey rev!! i hear ya but im goin all or nothin! backed him last year and watched him go odds on , practically counting my winnings, was about to spread eagle the field imo! have to back him! always liked the horse but youre right he cant jump
horse I like is Ogee(20s on the book).
ran well in this last year and would have
been closer but for a couple of bad mistakes.
GL
ran well in this last year and would have
been closer but for a couple of bad mistakes.
GL
il show him what a "cant jump"er is when i get out ah no id say he has a live chance alright. lovely horse. av u any antepost bets on
ah no id say he has a live chance alright. lovely horse. av u any antepost bets on
hold on, be holy divine and sufferin jeaysus what has reve at 12/1 4th fav? sum1 knows more van wharr i know me finks
well everyman and his dog knows about him im suppose but i really fancy him to win off 143 if he stays on his feet(which is unlikely
)absolutely none rev, ive only bet once antepost in my life and that was on fame and glory in the irish derby after i heard sts wouldnt be goin[;)]........! just dont bother as i like to play i-r in a lot of races and basically dont wanna do my dough!
how bout u?
not big on antepost either, did one the other day tho. 50 quid each way double on for non stop and zarkandar. pays 2k if both win. i wouldnt back ap yonks before a race tho. id be well pissed off if i didnt even back a horse that was runnin
yeah for non stops form with grand crus lookin pretty good right now and zakan could be v good indeed, backed hendos horse that finished 2nd to him lto.
also decided im not gonna back binocular , gonna chance my arm with dunguib i think, hes unlikely to win i think but he shouldve won the supreme, he jumped better fto this season , has course form and is relatively fresh and still an unknown quantity of sorts, he'll need a pace and to settle form the off but he has A chance! just cant be @rsed backing a 7/2 shot in such a competitive race tbh. like i went thru it and id give oscar whisky a good chance too, khyber kim(even tho beat last year, if he repeats that run and bino doesnt fire he'll be there) .thats my the way im approaching it anyway!
also decided im not gonna back binocular , gonna chance my arm with dunguib i think, hes unlikely to win i think but he shouldve won the supreme, he jumped better fto this season , has course form and is relatively fresh and still an unknown quantity of sorts, he'll need a pace and to settle form the off but he has A chance! just cant be @rsed backing a 7/2 shot in such a competitive race tbh. like i went thru it and id give oscar whisky a good chance too, khyber kim(even tho beat last year, if he repeats that run and bino doesnt fire he'll be there) .thats my the way im approaching it anyway!
yeah i like both binocular and menorah, original i know but theres no way id touch em t the prices. dnt tink il back anythin in it tbh
yeah v competitive! i think menorah is most solid at top as in never puts in a bad run!loves the course to boot!
yeah. ive never seen a horse hurdle as quick as binocular though. shud b a cracker, most trainers are bullish
yeah bino prob the most talented but he might not show it! then theres the fly, he'll be last off the bridle imo, will he get up the hill faster than the others , i dont know! prob not worth a bet but i like to have an interest in the big races!
yer. u like anythin tmrw. i like watergate, julia too and spear thistle, although i think it might be a little far for spear thistle
havent even looked tbh reve, although just a had a glimpse at the spear thistle race, i think he'll stay but he seems to like cut which he is unlikely to get tomorrow. i think NEIL HARVEY most likely winner! gl if u play tho!hope u win!
i dont think he does, and is more likely to stay if its good imo. ah sure il see, really like about 5 but all shorties. il figure it out tmrw if im not busy taking over the world. good night
ALTHOUGH with daryl on board its a huge plus, and i love him on my horses from the front! id expect it to trade odds on in the race, hes a brilliant jock from the front imo.
amazing that in all this thread the one horse,sunnyhill boy that has been backed with real money hasnt ben mentioned once?..strange
yeah he most likely will trade odds on. the way he rides u often think the horse is going better than it is. peter toole is doin really well for charlie too isnt he
Penzance - Ogee would have won easily last year IMO if it wasn't for late mistakes. Really like the price.
10 days should be enough of a break and will be only his
3rd run of the season.
What about the horses who run in both the Imperial Cup
and other festival hdle races,has'nt done some of their chances
any harm.
3rd run of the season.
What about the horses who run in both the Imperial Cup
and other festival hdle races,has'nt done some of their chances
any harm.
Beginning to think Wolf Moon could creep into this race at the bottom of the handicap. Meets a lot of the stats requisites and despite being out of the handicap would run off a lower mark than he ended up with over hurdles and only a pound higher than his last course win.
40/1 NRNB looks worth taking
40/1 NRNB looks worth taking
Im on Bensalem AP at 14's but will be having a saver on Sunnyhill Girl.
I quite like Razor Royale's e/w chances. Am I mad? Has reasonable enough form at Cheltenham and jumps well.
They need to run Adams Island in Uttoxeter Saturday week. He would be a certainty.
Guys for what its worth ive back definity NRNB 20/1 e/w for this, personally I cant see Nicholls not having a runner in a race sposnored by one of his biggest owners.
Superb Thread
Haave to throw some £££ at Adams with all the shrewdies on
Haave to throw some £££ at Adams with all the shrewdies on
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