Cheltenham Festival
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28 Feb 11
13:44
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Ogee - 25/1 Festival Handicap Chase
One thing that struck me at the festival last year was how well horses who have done well at the festival before come back and perform well again, not just in the big races but in the handicaps too. For example, last year both Pause and Clause and Buena Vista came back after placing the year before to taste victory 12 months later.
Last year Ogee ran a very respectable 3rd in what was then known as the WillHill off a 2lb lower mark. However, there are obvious reasons why he can improve on that performance. Firstly he made a bad error early on that day which knocked him back through the field. Also he was only a novice. Pause and Clause also ran in open company as a novice performing well, before coming back and winning a year later. Since then it hasn't all gone to plan but at Aintree he was all but brought down which ruined his chance. Also that day it must be noted he was made favourite to beat horses such as Burton Port. Then first time out this year he ran a better race than his finishing position before toiling in ground which would have been too tacky for him.
Interestingly I believe he was initially entered in the Gold Cup this year so connections obviously think he's progressed this year and too he was entered in the AON chase overnight before Newbury was abandoned. A grade 1 winner over hurdles who looks to be going the right way he surely has to run a massive race if he turns up. At 25/1 NRNB with bet365 he rated a good each way bet.
Arcalis - 50/1 Coral Cup
Yes he is 11 now, but he still has shown this season that he maintains a lot of his ability and besides Mr McGoldrick managed to run a massive race as 13 year old last year. A two time grade 1 winner including one at the festival, ground is now key to him these days and the quicker it is the better it is for him. He's had two runs so far this season, both stepping up to 3 miles. It's looked possibly both times that he just didn't quite stay. In fact first time out this year he was only beaten 5l by Big Bucks and his jockey said that for a while he thought he was going to pick him up after the last. Through the rest of the field that day (Duc De Regniere, Duke of Lucca, Kayf Aramis) I think it's fair to say he probably ran to a mark of 150, yet at the moment he is only rated 138.
On adjusted RPRs I've worked out (I think) he's miles clear of most of the field with an RPR of 13lbs in excess of his OR. Compare this to Aegean Dawn (1lb) and For Non Stop (5lbs) and his price seems massive value.
Also it must be noted that EVERY season he's improved on any performance he's put in that season at the Cheltenham Festival. Look at his RPRs earlier that season and in the Festival.
2004 - 2005: 143 to 146
2005 - 2006: 158 to 161
2006 - 2007: 152 to 157
2007 - 2008: Injured
2008 - 2009: 124 to 144
2009 - 2010: 118 to 138.
2010 - 2011: 151 to ?
If he can run anything around around 150+ he'll very tough to keep out of the frame and perhaps even win. He stayed on from the clouds in the county last year (2lb lower mark) where the trip looked way too short for him and with this being his only festival entry it's surely the aim and 50/1 should be taken.
One thing that struck me at the festival last year was how well horses who have done well at the festival before come back and perform well again, not just in the big races but in the handicaps too. For example, last year both Pause and Clause and Buena Vista came back after placing the year before to taste victory 12 months later.
Last year Ogee ran a very respectable 3rd in what was then known as the WillHill off a 2lb lower mark. However, there are obvious reasons why he can improve on that performance. Firstly he made a bad error early on that day which knocked him back through the field. Also he was only a novice. Pause and Clause also ran in open company as a novice performing well, before coming back and winning a year later. Since then it hasn't all gone to plan but at Aintree he was all but brought down which ruined his chance. Also that day it must be noted he was made favourite to beat horses such as Burton Port. Then first time out this year he ran a better race than his finishing position before toiling in ground which would have been too tacky for him.
Interestingly I believe he was initially entered in the Gold Cup this year so connections obviously think he's progressed this year and too he was entered in the AON chase overnight before Newbury was abandoned. A grade 1 winner over hurdles who looks to be going the right way he surely has to run a massive race if he turns up. At 25/1 NRNB with bet365 he rated a good each way bet.
Arcalis - 50/1 Coral Cup
Yes he is 11 now, but he still has shown this season that he maintains a lot of his ability and besides Mr McGoldrick managed to run a massive race as 13 year old last year. A two time grade 1 winner including one at the festival, ground is now key to him these days and the quicker it is the better it is for him. He's had two runs so far this season, both stepping up to 3 miles. It's looked possibly both times that he just didn't quite stay. In fact first time out this year he was only beaten 5l by Big Bucks and his jockey said that for a while he thought he was going to pick him up after the last. Through the rest of the field that day (Duc De Regniere, Duke of Lucca, Kayf Aramis) I think it's fair to say he probably ran to a mark of 150, yet at the moment he is only rated 138.
On adjusted RPRs I've worked out (I think) he's miles clear of most of the field with an RPR of 13lbs in excess of his OR. Compare this to Aegean Dawn (1lb) and For Non Stop (5lbs) and his price seems massive value.
Also it must be noted that EVERY season he's improved on any performance he's put in that season at the Cheltenham Festival. Look at his RPRs earlier that season and in the Festival.
2004 - 2005: 143 to 146
2005 - 2006: 158 to 161
2006 - 2007: 152 to 157
2007 - 2008: Injured
2008 - 2009: 124 to 144
2009 - 2010: 118 to 138.
2010 - 2011: 151 to ?
If he can run anything around around 150+ he'll very tough to keep out of the frame and perhaps even win. He stayed on from the clouds in the county last year (2lb lower mark) where the trip looked way too short for him and with this being his only festival entry it's surely the aim and 50/1 should be taken.
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Replies: 40
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Excellent work. Good luck EC.
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I backed Arcalis last year and was not amused when I found out after the race that the jock was 3lbs over weight! I agree he has a cracking chance and is cracking value too.
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You've twisted my arm am going to get on Ogee!! Mr Bet365 I will have five english pounds on Ogee @ 25/1 NRMB thank you.
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COCKNEY TRUCKER - County Hurdle.
3RD in the race two years ago, ran three solid races this season, GREAT COURSE FORM. 25/1 NRNB |
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Pearlysteps 33/1 in the 4 miler (also entered in the 3 miler on the first day).
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These are my type of bets small stakes, big winnings! Great thread keep them coming!
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Great stuff EC. Arcalis may have his own ideas about a lot of things but he sure loves that hill.
FOD - I agree that fella looks like he'll love a trip. Looks a tough enough heat though this year - four or five of the Irish look well up to standard for the race for starters IMO. |
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Always Waining Cross Country - 25/1 NRNB 365. Won the Topham at Aintree last year and entered in the National, so may well take to these fences. He is a spring horse, and I remember Silver Birch taking this en route to the GN a few years ago.
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Paintball Fred Winter - 40s NRNB ... perfect trends horse in that didnt win first two times over hurdles ... won on third attempt. Form from first run working out as two horse from behind have gone on and won and now lower in the betting than paintball . FW is the target acc to trainer ... only not known is handicap rating ... prob need at least 122 - 123 to get in ... so NRNB is the play until that is known ...also ran well at epsom and goodwood so looks like can deal with undulating tracks.
When Paul Jones highlights it as a trends horse surely price contracts ? All in all think its wrong price ... I backed at 50s ante post wished i waited to NRNB as now have nervy wait for OR |
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Fair Shout Walcot. Gutted I missed the 50s NRNB, then the 40s, only 25s with 365 now. Will probably wait to see what kind of handicap mark he's allotted tomorrow.
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good post as ever extreme ,arcalis is very interesting, i especially like his form behind thousand stars who i am keen on each way for the champion .agree he is on an attractive mark and coral cup distance will be more to his liking. im on at 40s in some multiples at corals, good luck
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Whitby Jack Fred Winter - 33s NRNB 365,only entry at the festival, OR 132 so guaranteed a run, won easily on 3rd attempt over hurdles beating Kuilsriver easily by 14 lengths over 2m2f so will have no problem staying. Kuilsriver previously splitting 2 decent sorts in the race A Media Luz came down in.
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Pigeon Island 33/1 nrnb for the Byrne Group H'Cap. Never been put in a challenging position in 3 runs so far, just staying on when the race is over.
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FCK sake I hate these threads 3 of my fancies have been mentioned but I dont want to bet them till everybody goes NRNB :(
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 really fancy one of ECs too |
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Astracad in the County
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cape tribulation, grade 1 winner over hurdles. sent off 3/1 fav for weapons albert bartlett, ran well into 5th on lively ground. cheltenhams policy of having gd-sft ground on the first day will play to his strengths too. has jumped left handed on 2 starts going right handed so return to a left handed course will suit and ran well last time into 2nd against a speedier rival in race that was run at a crawl and then a sprint up the home straight.
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theres another lol
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Buena Vista has an outstanding record at the festival(5th 2008,2nd 2009,1st 2010 in Pertemps hurdle,6th 2007 Arkle and 3rd 2006 supreme novices).Entered in the Coral Cup,Pertemps,Kim Muir and Martin Pipe Conditional he would be of major interest wherever he turns up.Had a very similar build up to last years festival this year (several unplaced efforts in handicap hurdles)and has dropped slightly in the handicap(as was the case last year).The pertemps could be the target once more especially as it has been in recent seasons but a crack at the Martin Pipe Conditionals could also be a possibility given that it is a race the stable are surely keen to win and that the stable conditional rode him when last seen,maybe this is coincedence or maybe the stable were getting horse and jockey aquainted prior to the MP conditinal??20-1 for the later looks interesting
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Very good write up, EC. Both picks well worth consideration, imo.
I see Mr Cracker has an entry in the Centenary and the Jewson. Trainer stated earlier in the season that the Powers was the main aim for the season. Seemed to indicate that Cheltenham wasn't on the agenda, though he didn't rule out coming over. His third to Realt Dubh and Noble Prince is interesting. The trip was on the short side for him. The ground was quite a bit better than the official description without being quite as good as the best times on the day might suggest. In that context, the race was run at a reasonable clip and, imo, it was one of the best trials of the season for novice chasers. The TS rating for the first and second was a very respectable 144 and I have it rated a little higher than that on the clock. Realt Dubh certainly shouldn't be underestimated if he can translate his ability to Cheltenham. Mr Cracker will be better served by stepping back up to 20f; going left handed and better ground will suit. He may not come over, but possibly worth keeping an eye on any NRNB quotes for him. Excellent blog you write, EC. Well worth following. |
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when will the hcap weights be announced ?thanks
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^tomorrow.
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Arcalis 6lb clear on adjusted RPRs now the weights are out.
Like the look of Mr Cracker aka seems nicely treated off 139 in the centenary. 16s NRNB could be tempting. |
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Yes, be interesting to see if they take up the engagement now, EC. His other entry is the Golden Miller (must wipe 'Jewson' from my memory now).
Coral Cup very much the right trip for Arcalis now, I suspect. Lost some of his speed for two miles with advancing years, but seems to have found that bit more stamina to make the intermediate distance well within his compass. A very interesting runner at current prices. |
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Aigle D'or and The Knoxs also look quite well treated for the Centenary on a number of counts, and Sarando likewise from a bit lower in the list. I believe all three also have multiple entries at this stage though.
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Professeur Emery (Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle) - this horse will try and lead all the way. On good ground it will go close.
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Great thread this, though I expected nothing less from EC.
I found one that is entered in a few different races at the Festival. Centenary nov hcp Chase-Coral Cup-Martin Pipe race 2nd Supreme Novice Hrd PU Champion Hrd - Burst blood vessel 5th Champion Hrd 5th Jewson nov hcp ch Has been chasing of late, but surely of a mark of 135 Connections will aim STRAW BEAR at one of the hurdle races. Was of the track for over a year so maybe he has lost most of his ability, but imo racing him over fences will never show if he retains his class. Over hurdles though, I would be prepared to take a chance on him at a big price |
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I've been wathching him this season APOC, and on his penultimate run I was convinced McCoy was easy on him. Last time put me off though.
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Edgbriar in the Bynre Plate
Is a C&D winner Only 4lb higher than when winning early season (went up 8lb but dropped 4 subsequently) Has ran well at the track on several occasions He has a 50% strike rate over exactly 21f, 3/6. Handles most ground. |
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Pearlysteps I liked more in the Old Willy Hill given the trainers record..
Agree Mr Cracker, would like bigger odds than 16's NRNB, would prefer Tullamore Dew went to the bryne on a lower weight, trainer seems to think he would be caught out by something less exposed in the Bryne = badly handicapped no? backed today. I like the look of Song of Songs, lower than last placing in this 2 years ago when as a six year old he didnt quite get home, entitled to have a little more stamina...50.1..? Fulin I bet last year at 100.1, almost got me place money, 7 feckin entries at similar prices. |
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Poker de Sivola has to be of interest if Ferdy aims him @ the Cross Country chase(his only festival entry)
7th in a kim muir 2009 1st in NH ch 2010 The horses at the head of the market proved last year that they were vulnerable, to my eyes nothing has changed except both L'ami and Garde Champetre are a year older now. Racing of 10-7, there will be far worse 16/1 shots at this years Festival |
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Yes, Fuilin on better ground and still eligible for the novice events is interesting if we had more of an intimation which race he might be heading for. I would like to see him tried over a bit further than when he out ran his price in the SN last time.
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Looking at the Wm Hill Chase (or whatever it is this year) last night and I'm another Pearlysteps fan, having already backed Sunnyhill Boy (convinced this is a plot horse)
If only we could be sure this was his intended target |
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Sint, where do you think SB will turn up?
I was hoping the Martin Pipe race tbh, though I have a gut feeling they will go for the novice chase. He was rated 130 for his last run but gets in of a tasty 125 for the Centenary Chase. He will surely be winning races of that mark. |
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Likely to be the Chase given the races he has ran in so far imo.
On his penultimate run I thought he was just getting his act together, he generally jumped fine, and Tony was definitley not hard on him. His last ran gives me the squits though  |
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For me the Bear hated that ground at Wincanton- always wanted good ground imho, I'm not sure it really likes fences, but if it was ridden like a non trier at a fast Chelters pace could well reward eachy waysy- good luck
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The Bear could not win if he started now. He isn't the same animal anymore. He used to be very smart but not anymore.
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Always Waining will be there purely as a warm-up for Aintree. Peter Bowen loves loves loves Aintree and aims his horses at the Grand National meeting, not Cheltenham.
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Kayf Aramis is currently a 25/1 chance for the Pertemps Hurdle.
The horse has finished 1st and 5th in the race for the last two seasons. He won the 2009 race convincingly and last year he was the only horse carrying over 11 stone(11-6) that finished in the first dozen. Beaten only 81/4 length by Buena Vista while giving him 19lb, he now gets a 15lb pull. Dropped 7 lb in the handicap but a couple of decent efforts to his name in grade2 company this year show he is no back number. The horse is currently on 10st 7lb a feather weight compared to weights he has been carrying over the last few seasons. The fact that he is trained by Twiston-Davies is also a plus as he has a very good record in the race. Imo he should be vying for favouritism. All in all he rates a very good bet for me and I will be very surprised if he finishes outside of the first 4, indeed I fully expect him to win  |