Cheltenham Festival
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Key Stats;
Won this season, preferably last time out.
Lightly raced this season (upto 3 runs) and/or coming off a break
No winner has ever been rated higher than 147.
92 horses aged 8yo+ since 1999 have tried to win this race with only Burntoakboy suceeding, rejuvenated by Dr Richard Newland.
Contenders;
Aegean Dawn - has the perfect profile for the race and Nicky Henderson trained his first winner of this race last year to break his hoodoo. Has took a massive hike in the ratings and also has a County entry but to me this looks the more suitable race.
For Non Stop - trainer has recently expressed his delight with his handicap mark, 135, and he will come into this race off a nice break. His 2nd behind Grand Crus off level weights over C&D is arguably the best form on offer.
Call The Police - although an 8yo he has only had 6 career runs and is 2/2 since been moved to Mullins' yard this season. Ran a blinder to be 2nd in the MCR (strongest Irish prep race) and was an easy winner last time out. Rated 140 in Ireland, it will be interesting to see what mark the UK handicapper gives him (Ninetieth Minute was allowed to race of his Irish mark when he duly dotted up two years ago).
Final Approach - won the MCR and is rated 134 in Ireland so should get a nice racing weight off the UK handicapper. My suspicion is he is more speed than stamina, ex flat horse whos only win came at 8f, and the County would be a more suitable option in my eyes.
Alavian - rated 145 in Ireland so likely to right on the top end of the recommended ratings. Has shown improved form this year and did the best of the Irish challangers in last years Triumph, 3rd. Had a nice break since winning last time out and an interesting point to note is the last 4 Irish trained winners had not ran since January at the latest.
Bothy - yet to win this year but has put up two brave performances in the top 2 2m handicaps in Britain finishing 2nd on both occasions. If Recession Proof was to win the Supreme and Menorah to win the Champion then l could see his odds tumble for this race but l feel he maybe better on softer ground, he found it hard to go the pace on this day last year in the Fred Winter.
Others to consider;
Blackstairmountain - grade 1 winner at Punchestowns last year and travelled really well in the Supreme until been done for toe coming down the hill. Another that will be right on the brink of the ratings band but comes here off a nice break and maybe should of won last time out at his first try at this trip, was given a easy ride by Ruby and was caught in the last stride but the way he quickened between the last two flights was eyecatching.
Notus De La Tour - ran well in 2 graded handicaps on both starts this season, favourite for the first, and was a good 2nd to "handicap good thing" Sanctuaire in last years Fred Winter so he proved that the track holds no fears. The way he battled on in the Totesport was encouraging considering the two in front of him are both ex flat horses with more speed.
Get Me Out Of Here - although 1lb higher than the prefered rating this horse has looked like a JP/Jonjo handicap special all season long and JP's runners command great respect in this race. Has the form in the book to win a race like this and was bang there 2 out in the Greatwood before fading so maybe this step up in trip will suit.
Won this season, preferably last time out.
Lightly raced this season (upto 3 runs) and/or coming off a break
No winner has ever been rated higher than 147.
92 horses aged 8yo+ since 1999 have tried to win this race with only Burntoakboy suceeding, rejuvenated by Dr Richard Newland.
Contenders;
Aegean Dawn - has the perfect profile for the race and Nicky Henderson trained his first winner of this race last year to break his hoodoo. Has took a massive hike in the ratings and also has a County entry but to me this looks the more suitable race.
For Non Stop - trainer has recently expressed his delight with his handicap mark, 135, and he will come into this race off a nice break. His 2nd behind Grand Crus off level weights over C&D is arguably the best form on offer.
Call The Police - although an 8yo he has only had 6 career runs and is 2/2 since been moved to Mullins' yard this season. Ran a blinder to be 2nd in the MCR (strongest Irish prep race) and was an easy winner last time out. Rated 140 in Ireland, it will be interesting to see what mark the UK handicapper gives him (Ninetieth Minute was allowed to race of his Irish mark when he duly dotted up two years ago).
Final Approach - won the MCR and is rated 134 in Ireland so should get a nice racing weight off the UK handicapper. My suspicion is he is more speed than stamina, ex flat horse whos only win came at 8f, and the County would be a more suitable option in my eyes.
Alavian - rated 145 in Ireland so likely to right on the top end of the recommended ratings. Has shown improved form this year and did the best of the Irish challangers in last years Triumph, 3rd. Had a nice break since winning last time out and an interesting point to note is the last 4 Irish trained winners had not ran since January at the latest.
Bothy - yet to win this year but has put up two brave performances in the top 2 2m handicaps in Britain finishing 2nd on both occasions. If Recession Proof was to win the Supreme and Menorah to win the Champion then l could see his odds tumble for this race but l feel he maybe better on softer ground, he found it hard to go the pace on this day last year in the Fred Winter.
Others to consider;
Blackstairmountain - grade 1 winner at Punchestowns last year and travelled really well in the Supreme until been done for toe coming down the hill. Another that will be right on the brink of the ratings band but comes here off a nice break and maybe should of won last time out at his first try at this trip, was given a easy ride by Ruby and was caught in the last stride but the way he quickened between the last two flights was eyecatching.
Notus De La Tour - ran well in 2 graded handicaps on both starts this season, favourite for the first, and was a good 2nd to "handicap good thing" Sanctuaire in last years Fred Winter so he proved that the track holds no fears. The way he battled on in the Totesport was encouraging considering the two in front of him are both ex flat horses with more speed.
Get Me Out Of Here - although 1lb higher than the prefered rating this horse has looked like a JP/Jonjo handicap special all season long and JP's runners command great respect in this race. Has the form in the book to win a race like this and was bang there 2 out in the Greatwood before fading so maybe this step up in trip will suit.
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Nice job - another one to consider is Carlito Brigante. Trainer said recently that he had not a lot work done with him prior to that match race with Alivan. Improvement form last year expected
Good stuff bland
Have backed Arcalis at 50s - was waitin for NRNB as i dont know if its defo the target but had to act sooner than i wanted
And have also had an interest in For Non Stop
Have backed Arcalis at 50s - was waitin for NRNB as i dont know if its defo the target but had to act sooner than i wanted
And have also had an interest in For Non Stop
For Non Stop 10/1. 8/1 is still a good price, all aboard
14s, guilty. Been eyeing this one for it since it didnt blow its mark in the challow. Had to get involved once a confirmed runner and I started seeing a couple of blue specks on oddschecker.
i could see FNS going off 7/2. the whole world will be on him
For non stop 14s/ Arcalis bit and pieces on here at 60+.
For Non Stop 14/1 and 10/1 NRNB. Bet of the festival for me.
Also on FNS at 20/1, 12/1 & 10/1. Bet of the festival for me too!
I even got my dad involved in this after guaranteeing it would go off single figures, sub 6/1 imo, and he hates getting involved in hcaps this early ha!
Only joking Gunpro. 
That he's your bet of the meeting gives me further confidence. 
I'm leaning towards Tullamore Dew being the bet of the meeting por moi.
That he's your bet of the meeting gives me further confidence. I'm leaning towards Tullamore Dew being the bet of the meeting por moi.
Mullins holds a strong hand and if he runs I can imagine Blackstairmountain with Ruby up being in single figures on the day so 20/1 nrnb is fine with me, and Call The Police at 12/1 nrnb is ok if Blackstairmountain stays in Ireland (or goes for the County).
Not totally convinced about For Non Stop myself, but given all the positive vibes aboves I'll also take some 8/1 nrnb with a view to laying off nearer the time for a free cover bet
Not totally convinced about For Non Stop myself, but given all the positive vibes aboves I'll also take some 8/1 nrnb with a view to laying off nearer the time for a free cover bet
Hope you're right CV, got fns and tullamore as part of a yankee.
Will go off 3/1f and get cut dramatically when Aegean Dawn is announce to be running in the County 
Agree with you on Blackstairmountain. Townend made an epic balls up when he was beaten lto. Think he'll be very interesting wherever he runs. Don't like him too much for this, would prefer he went for the county.
Not very original but For Non Stop for me too at 14/1 along with Dynaste @ 55 and Shalone @ 33.
Will probably add one or two Irish horses when weights are known including Summit Meeting if he rolls up here instead of the Pertmeps.
Will probably add one or two Irish horses when weights are known including Summit Meeting if he rolls up here instead of the Pertmeps.
Think Call The Police will end up running in this, Ballyhaunis might too.
Call The Police was my early fancy for The County Hurdle, but think he's sure to go here, certainly not going for The County anyway. I like this horse a lot. Another horse I like for Cheltenham, which is entered for this, is Shoegazer, but he's got multiple entries, and no idea if this is the preferred route. Wouldn't rule out American Trilogy either back over hurdles, after his horror show at the weekend.
They would be my 3 at the moment, but holding fire meantime.
They would be my 3 at the moment, but holding fire meantime.
Call the police looked perfect type to me after his last win, just have to wait to see what mark he gets.
your boy coming here dan? would fancy him to go close in this though sadly ive already got the winner :)
For Non Stop absolutely bolted up in my dream last night. Must stop eating late night cheese so close to festival!
Morning abbott, not sure yet. I don't think we'll decide till quite late, all about the going. What's your darkun for this then?
Another to throw in the mix. ON BORROWED WINGS ( E/W ). Unlucky in Martin Pipe last year. Effective on the course, consistent, comes into the race on back of decent run at Kempton
Its not that Dark but if McCain jocks Henry Brooke up on Any Given Day I will be all over him. Think the horse is Graded class just a pity there is no Championship race at 2m4f over hurdles. With the 7lbs of I think hes got a great chance.
Soft ground you can have a party after the county ;)
Soft ground you can have a party after the county ;)
Call the Police gets in off 140 - good enough for me.
FOR NON STOP, the biggest early gamble for a Cheltenham Festival handicap, could carry just 10st 2lb in his bid to land a major plunge in the Coral Cup - but the classy youngster needs a host of horses to defect if he is win a place in the line-up.
A maximum of 28 runners are allowed to compete in the £70,000 contest, for which For Non Stop, recently cut to 8-1 favourite from 14-1 by the sponsors, has been handed a feather weight by the BHA's handicapping team.
However, with 65 entries due to carry more weight than the novice, trainer Nick Williams - who has also entered For Non Stop in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle - faces an anxious wait.
A maximum of 28 runners are allowed to compete in the £70,000 contest, for which For Non Stop, recently cut to 8-1 favourite from 14-1 by the sponsors, has been handed a feather weight by the BHA's handicapping team.
However, with 65 entries due to carry more weight than the novice, trainer Nick Williams - who has also entered For Non Stop in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle - faces an anxious wait.
He has a very similar profile in terns of exeperience and when he made hurdle debut to James De Vassy, fwiw. Certainly been laid out for it,imo.
I personally think FNS is very short now.
Aegean Dawn and Arcalis my two against the field.
Aegean Dawn and Arcalis my two against the field.
He is, James De Vassy was 14/1 on the day, although 8lb higher. Think you backed him.
Coudln't have AegeanDawn, tbh. Only had 4 runs and this is the toughest of the lot on his highest mark so far. Expected to be a better chase prospect, and attempting a 5 timer.
Good memory mate! I did. Really fancied him.
Take your point about AD, but still going to be a backer.
Take your point about AD, but still going to be a backer.
Think numide will get in now on the back of that win today.
What does everyone think of the chances of For Non Stop getting a run here?A lot of horses above him will probably
run elsewhere but I feel he might just miss out.Anyone like to guess where the cut will be?
run elsewhere but I feel he might just miss out.Anyone like to guess where the cut will be?
horse 100 if its anything like last yr. id be very confident of him getting a run
This market has really taken shape now with Call the police, FNS and Aegon all being well backed (Think 8/1 is the best you can get for any of these). Personally I thought call the police had the right profile and is well fancied by the stable. Plus Mullins confirmed on sunday this is the main target. Still think there is alot of ucnertainty as to whether FNS runs or not considering his position of 60+ in the list of entries. Thought the we would lose about half to 60% of the runners above him so will be tight. If he gets in he will be carrying a feather weight.
Coral's 5 place offer looked interesting although no place market on here yet.
Coral's 5 place offer looked interesting although no place market on here yet.
Call the police for me but only to small amount, hard race to gauge.
Like Silverhand too..Came to chelt last year on the back of a few horrible experiences yet ran a commendable race. Higher mark this year but seems to have matured and improved considerably also confidence will be skyhigh after couple of easy wins. Trainer has stated that good ground is the key and on his ultra smart flat form (listed winner) there still be plenty of room for manouvre with his current mark of 140 ish. Actually has the look of a potential JP gamble.
heard tht aegean dawn is doubtfull ,taken out of betting
AD still in the betting with a number of firms although removed with at least 5/6. Only out to 30/1 on here so must still be some uncertainty as to whether he is running or not.I assume the decelerations will give us a clue. If FNS is to run then its time to start removing those entries
Silverhand and Get Me Out Of Here not declared at 5 day stage.
Ballyhaunis ew at 33/1 NRNB is a huge price imo.
Good second to Hidden Cyclone last time out in a Grade 2 over 2m4, and Hidden Cyclone has come out and won another Grade 2 since. Hidden Cyclone also has strong from with Zaidpour and First Lieutenent.
Only rated 135, which seems very low to me, and would only carry a low weight.
Not sure if he will run (his only other entry is the Neptune and Willie said So Young will be his only runner in that). Hopefully he would get in, would need a few to drop out, but I think 33/1 NRNB is massive!!!
Good second to Hidden Cyclone last time out in a Grade 2 over 2m4, and Hidden Cyclone has come out and won another Grade 2 since. Hidden Cyclone also has strong from with Zaidpour and First Lieutenent.
Only rated 135, which seems very low to me, and would only carry a low weight.
Not sure if he will run (his only other entry is the Neptune and Willie said So Young will be his only runner in that). Hopefully he would get in, would need a few to drop out, but I think 33/1 NRNB is massive!!!
^^^Sorry, 25/1 is top price now, got a bit carried away [;)]
are there more certainties to drop out of the race? Aegon Dawn looks 50/50 at the moment to participate according to the betting?
Has Henderson said what is wrong wth Aegean Dawn - I just read he had jumped poorly in a schooling session and so they assumed something was wrong. Surely by now they have had thevet in and found out what, if anything, was wrong, and whether it means he won't be running next week?
Will stink as much as Binocular last year if he turns up and sluices in.
Will stink as much as Binocular last year if he turns up and sluices in.
Arcalis again off 138, ran off 136 last year but im sure there was overweight put up on him? or he weighed in 2lb higher... can't quite remember
Just reading through Willie Mullins stable tour on ATR site, and there is no mention of Ballyhaunis. Shame, as I hope they run him as he could sneak in at the very bottom of the weights.
He needs six to drop out, and they could be:
Aegean Dawn - possible injury
Alaivan - County looks like his race according to the betting - I'd really fancy him if he went in this
Final Approach - looks like he's going for the County (think he has a big chance)
King of the Knight - preferred option is the Martin Pipe (again, has a big chance in that)
Notus De La tour - Pipe leaning towards a 2m race as he doubts his stamina over 2m5f
That only leaves one more to come out, but if all of those came out then For Non Stop would be guaranteed a run.
If Ballyhaunis doesn't run, I'm finding it hard to pick one. If Call the Police is well handicapped, you'd have to say the Final Approach would be for the County.
He needs six to drop out, and they could be:
Aegean Dawn - possible injury
Alaivan - County looks like his race according to the betting - I'd really fancy him if he went in this
Final Approach - looks like he's going for the County (think he has a big chance)
King of the Knight - preferred option is the Martin Pipe (again, has a big chance in that)
Notus De La tour - Pipe leaning towards a 2m race as he doubts his stamina over 2m5f
That only leaves one more to come out, but if all of those came out then For Non Stop would be guaranteed a run.
If Ballyhaunis doesn't run, I'm finding it hard to pick one. If Call the Police is well handicapped, you'd have to say the Final Approach would be for the County.
1 1121/20 Walkon (FR) 26 6 11-12 A King R Thornton 154
16/1
2 257147 Solix (FR) 26 5 11-10 N J Henderson B J Geraghty 152
20/1
3 15910-2 Trenchant 17 6 11-7 b A King W Hutchinson 149
25/1
4 1/1-11 Aegean Dawn 117 6 11-3 N J Henderson David Bass (3) 145
6/1
5 P/114-21 Call The Police (IRE) 28 8 10-12 W P Mullins R Walsh 140
5/1
6 142-102 Carlito Brigante (IRE) 46 5 10-12 t G Elliott D N Russell 140
20/1
7 023-636 Arcalis 46 11 10-10 J Howard Johnson B Hughes 138
25/1
8 117-252 Bothy 26 5 10-10 B Ellison Danny Cook (3) 138
14/1
9 123441 Battle Group 18 6 10-9 D Pipe T Scudamore 137
20/1
10 116951 Tiger O'Toole (IRE) 53 6 10-9 Evan Williams Paul Moloney 137
25/1
11 203-0F4 Pistolet Noir (FR) 22 5 10-9 P F Nicholls Ian Popham (3) 137
20/1
12 314-674 Orsippus (USA) 27 5 10-8 M Smith D J Condon 136
25/1
13 4P6-325 Straw Bear (USA) 25 10 10-7 N J Gifford 135
40/1
14 643-124 For Non Stop (IRE) 77 6 10-7 Nick Williams D Jacob 135
6/1
15 7-112 Ballyhaunis 52 6 10-7 t W P Mullins P Townend 135
20/1
16 1103/P3- Aachen 410 7 10-3 Miss V Williams 131
25/1
17 8F-4443 Busker Royal 25 8 10-2 N J Henderson 130
40/1
18 111- Orzare (IRE) 394 5 10-2 G L Moore 130
33/1
19 471P-42 Lord Ragnar (IRE) 39 8 10-1 N J Henderson 129
40/1
20 357-075 Secret Dancer (IRE) 46 6 10-1 A E Jones 129
33/1
21 1131P/7 Lightning Strike (GER) 25 8 10-1 Miss V Williams A Coleman 129
40/1
22 4-43520 Mohanad (IRE) 15 5 10-1 Miss S West J Goldstein 129
50/1
23 180122 Montan (FR) 10 7 10-1 A J Martin 129
33/1
24 4-22221 Gift Of Dgab (IRE) 19 7 10-0 A J Martin 128
33/1
25 116770 Points of View 4 6 10-0 t K C Bailey Edward Cookson (7) 128
66/1
26 872553 Dantari (IRE) 39 6 10-0 Evan Williams J E Moore 128
33/1
27 44F4-F0 Song of Songs 4 9 10-0 v Jonjo O'Neill R P Mclernon (3) 128
33/1
28 530548 County Zen (FR) 18 8 10-0 P J Hobbs 126
40/1
16/1
2 257147 Solix (FR) 26 5 11-10 N J Henderson B J Geraghty 152
20/1
3 15910-2 Trenchant 17 6 11-7 b A King W Hutchinson 149
25/1
4 1/1-11 Aegean Dawn 117 6 11-3 N J Henderson David Bass (3) 145
6/1
5 P/114-21 Call The Police (IRE) 28 8 10-12 W P Mullins R Walsh 140
5/1
6 142-102 Carlito Brigante (IRE) 46 5 10-12 t G Elliott D N Russell 140
20/1
7 023-636 Arcalis 46 11 10-10 J Howard Johnson B Hughes 138
25/1
8 117-252 Bothy 26 5 10-10 B Ellison Danny Cook (3) 138
14/1
9 123441 Battle Group 18 6 10-9 D Pipe T Scudamore 137
20/1
10 116951 Tiger O'Toole (IRE) 53 6 10-9 Evan Williams Paul Moloney 137
25/1
11 203-0F4 Pistolet Noir (FR) 22 5 10-9 P F Nicholls Ian Popham (3) 137
20/1
12 314-674 Orsippus (USA) 27 5 10-8 M Smith D J Condon 136
25/1
13 4P6-325 Straw Bear (USA) 25 10 10-7 N J Gifford 135
40/1
14 643-124 For Non Stop (IRE) 77 6 10-7 Nick Williams D Jacob 135
6/1
15 7-112 Ballyhaunis 52 6 10-7 t W P Mullins P Townend 135
20/1
16 1103/P3- Aachen 410 7 10-3 Miss V Williams 131
25/1
17 8F-4443 Busker Royal 25 8 10-2 N J Henderson 130
40/1
18 111- Orzare (IRE) 394 5 10-2 G L Moore 130
33/1
19 471P-42 Lord Ragnar (IRE) 39 8 10-1 N J Henderson 129
40/1
20 357-075 Secret Dancer (IRE) 46 6 10-1 A E Jones 129
33/1
21 1131P/7 Lightning Strike (GER) 25 8 10-1 Miss V Williams A Coleman 129
40/1
22 4-43520 Mohanad (IRE) 15 5 10-1 Miss S West J Goldstein 129
50/1
23 180122 Montan (FR) 10 7 10-1 A J Martin 129
33/1
24 4-22221 Gift Of Dgab (IRE) 19 7 10-0 A J Martin 128
33/1
25 116770 Points of View 4 6 10-0 t K C Bailey Edward Cookson (7) 128
66/1
26 872553 Dantari (IRE) 39 6 10-0 Evan Williams J E Moore 128
33/1
27 44F4-F0 Song of Songs 4 9 10-0 v Jonjo O'Neill R P Mclernon (3) 128
33/1
28 530548 County Zen (FR) 18 8 10-0 P J Hobbs 126
40/1
Had a little nibble on Straw Bear @ 46 
Looks very well treated on some of his old form and has presumably been running over fences (which he dosen't like) to protect his h'cap mark for this?
Looks very well treated on some of his old form and has presumably been running over fences (which he dosen't like) to protect his h'cap mark for this?
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