JOCI Club's Cheltenham Race Previews

WED 16 MAR 2011   
141st Year of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)   
4m Number of runners: 57

The opening race on day 2 of the festival is a tricky stamina sapping 4 mile chase for novices, and amateur riders!     It's a race that has thrown up  a number of shocks over the years, and is something of a nightmare for finding the winner. But that won't stop me trying!

Here's the current field of 57 runners:

1-1321    Aberdale112
911111    Alfa Beat182
10-413    Alfie Sherrin32
432221    Arabella Boy21
81P-15    Bai Zhu109
822U36    Ballyegan15
21-322    Ballymak21
31-325    Be There In Five52
411-B1    Beshabar21
120-51    Born Again132
5-4521    C´Est Ca18
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
6-1813    Captain Americo39
UUP-98    Carlas Dream20
P-31U1    Chamirey18
211F25    Chicago Grey78
3-34PU    Double Pride16
294240    Flying Doctor21
22221    Fredo41
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
2-21FF    Glenwood Knight26
F4112P    Gonebeyondrecall95
5-116P    Inch Native48
123U17    Macs Lad146
3-5112    Magnanimity32
0/131P    Major Malarkey25
4312P    Minella Boys18
1-7P7U    Mister Marker29
F5/6-P    Mna Na Heirinn50
83F21F    Mostly Bob18
78834U    No More Prisoners14
7532U9    Not Before Eight35
10-414    On His Own39
41-4PF    Only The Best30
23F84    Othermix49
121F6P    Overquest18
16279    Pay The Bounty28
4-2213    Pearlysteps46
381566    Pilgrims Lane151
42421    Promising Anshan26
4-F183    Quadrillon47
57-711    Quantitativeeasing36
2F6-1F    Quel Esprit32
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
21386    Regal Approach39
4331P    Sam Adams32
56-F14    Sheshali34
5-2351    Some Target45
117-11    Sona Sasta56
285-2P    Strategic Approach92
2U121    Tharawaat18
216242    The Ferbane Man19
301FF3    Triggerman39
4/2236    Uncle Junior49
P-2225    Voramar Two49
21-111    Wayward Prince39
1324F    Western Charmer18


First up, I'd eliminate all horses that failed to finish in the top 2 last time out (relaxing this to allow horses who either fell or were brought down last time). This whiitles the field down to a more manageable number:

1-1321    Aberdale112
911111    Alfa Beat182
432221    Arabella Boy21
21-322    Ballymak21
411-B1    Beshabar21
120-51    Born Again132
5-4521    C´Est Ca18
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
P-31U1    Chamirey18
3-34PU    Double Pride16
22221    Fredo41
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
2-21FF    Glenwood Knight26
3-5112    Magnanimity32
1-7P7U    Mister Marker29
41-4PF    Only The Best30
42421    Promising Anshan26
57-711    Quantitativeeasing36
2F6-1F    Quel Esprit32
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
5-2351    Some Target45
117-11    Sona Sasta56
2U121    Tharawaat18
216242    The Ferbane Man19
21-111    Wayward Prince39
1324F    Western Charmer18


I'd next be looking to overlook horses aged less than seven, as this is one of the ultimate stamina tests, and is seldom won by very young horses. This statistic rules out a further 5 horses, leaving a field of 21. This can be further reduced by eliminating any horse not finishing in the top 2 in a three mile chase during their career. This relieves us of a further 8 horses. If we also apply the criterion that the winner is likely to have had more than 2 runs over fences, then that rules out another horse in Sona Sasta. Following this, we are left with a shortlist of 12.

I would then look to disregard horses who have not benefited from a recent outing, and dismiss horses who have not run within the last 50 days. This stat rules out two quite fancies horses in Aberdale and Alfa Beat, leaving the following shortlist of 10 horses.

411-B1    Beshabar21
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
P-31U1    Chamirey18
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
2-21FF    Glenwood Knight26
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
5-2351    Some Target45
216242    The Ferbane Man19
21-111    Wayward Prince39
1324F    Western Charmer18

I would also, at this stage be prepared to rule out Western Charmer on account of the fact that he's the only shortlisted horse not to have won any kind of race in excess of 23 miles. The furthest he has won over is 2m 4f so it is a bit of a leap of faith to fancy him over the marathon trip of 4 miles. In addition, I'm not happy with the fact that Glenwood Knight has fallen on his last two outings, and can't find a place for him in my final shortlist. On the balance of his form, The Ferbane Man looks like he might not be quite good enough to take a race of this nature. This leaves me with a final shortlist of 7 horses

411-B1    Beshabar21
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
P-31U1    Chamirey18
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
5-2351    Some Target45
21-111    Wayward Prince39


To be continued...............

The riders are important in this. Many have no chance no matter what horse they are on.

I don't mean to pick holes because this is a fantastic effort and a very good read, but regarding the novice hurdlers it would be seriously foolish (imo) to not factor in any improvement that a horse has and could make. For instance the Recession Proof that won the Totesport Trophy is a completely different horse to the one that got beat by Dunraven Storm.

Apologies again because this thread only really deserves praise.

huge amount of impressive analysis you've put in and everything, but i can't help but think that all this work comes to the conclusion that you could have come to without so much effort

"i'll back the favourite!"



incidentally as far as my own judgement is concerned, for example in the rsa you point out that time for rupert is reasonable value at 5-2, but i can't agree. for example that's a similar price that denman was trading at about a week before he won the rsa, and he had much more experience over fences

my own fancies for cheltenham are as follows;

supreme

i like spirit son. tbh i don't have a great knowledge of some of the horses in this race but as far as cue card is concerned, it looks like dunguib all over again. travelled nicely last time but was as weak as a kitten in the finish when brushed aside easily by menorah.. of course many will cling to the fact that menorah is a different class to anything he will face in this race and while that is unquestionably true, the mere fact of that brutal destruction leaves doubts in my mind.

last year we had dunguib (and i was sucked in by the hype surrounding that one) and the year before that cousin vinny, both horse who had won the champion bumper easily, just like cue card, but the bare truth is that the quality of horses that you are likely to meet in the supreme is vastly superior to the slow irish embryo chasers that cue card beat up last year. no doubt some willie mullins thing will win the bumper by 10 lengths and we'll all be falling over each other to back it next year, but if you can't learn from history, how can you learn?

spirit son impresses me with his class and size and whatever the result in the supreme, will go right to the top is one to follow for years to come. and most importantly of all, he's a much bigger price than cue card!

selection: SPIRIT SON

the arkle

this doesnt look like a vintage renewal. finians rainbow looks to me to be the classiest individual in the field and the one with the most potential in the field. still i can't get it out of my mind how scrappily he jumped at warwick. he reached for a lot of his fences and such extravagance and chancy jumping will surely cost him dear at cheltenham. then again, tidal bay had the same question marks over him a few years back and jumped like a stag on the day. perhaps the quicker pace and more competitive race will show finians in a better light.

medermit was impressive at sandown. he travelled like a very good horse. I always think it's a good idea to have a horse that can travel at cheltenham, as the quicker pace can put them in an even better light. he might not find as much as others off the bridle but in any case i'll be very surprised if you can't at least get out in running, if that's your thing, and as nothing else jumps off the page (captain chris would be interesting but might end up elsewhere, besides medermit holds him on the sandown run) and the only other really good horse in this, finians rainbow, could well end up on the floor, he would have to rate the selection.

selection : MEDERMIT

CHAMPION HURDLE

binocular was hugely impressive last year but this looks a stronger renewal so he'll have to be everybit as good.  there doesn't seem to be much between the main protaganists but the one that could stand out as having the most potential to be really top class is hurricane fly. I wasn't intially keen on this horse, but i've been a recent convert. the way he keeps brushing aside solwhit, who remember many strongly fancied last year for the champion before his injury, like he's brushing aside a pesky and one-paced fly, is pretty impressive. the one doubt would be that he keeps beating the same opposition and that horses sired by montjeu have a dire record at the festival (actually that's two.)

but the way he travels is impressive and it comes back to my earlier argument about needing a horse who can travel at cheltenham. also he seems more consistent that binocular as that one can throw in the odd poor run while the fly keeps grinding out performance after performance. i can seem him hacking all over them after the blistening pace round the top bend and when the jock says go he'll turn on the after boosters.

menorah is very interesting. he's a great big bull of a horse and just as you need something that can travel at cheltenham you need something that can come up the hill. while that might be a doubt about hurricane fly its definitely not a problem with menorah. personally i find it a hard call between those two but i just see the fly travelling that bit better through the race.

as for peddlers cross, i can't get it out of my head how he seemed outpaced in the neptune last year by reve de sivola, which was over 2 and half miles, before staying on past them up the hill. so that's a question mark already about whether his basic running style might leave him vulnerable against these pure two milers.

its a hard call between hurricane fly and menorah

but the selection (for the time being [;)])

is HURRICANE FLY

anyway that's enough for now i'm rather tired. i shall endevour to continue this debate tommorow

I don't mean to pick holes because this is a fantastic effort and a very good read, but regarding the novice hurdlers it would be seriously foolish (imo) to not factor in any improvement that a horse has and could make. For instance the Recession Proof that won the Totesport Trophy is a completely different horse to the one that got beat by Dunraven Storm.

Apologies again because this thread only really deserves praise.

Agree that horses can show big improvement within a matter of months when they are at this stage of their careers, but the difficult thing is being able to predict which ones are going to make that big leap on the day. I guess we'd all be rich if we were able to do that. There's no reason for me why Cue Card does not have every bit as much improvement in him as any other horse in the race. The fact is that other horses in the field have to improve to get to the standard of an average winner of this race and if Cue Card merely runs to his current rating, whatever beats him will have to be even better than the average winner over the years. I'd prefer to stick with the form I know is already in the book. I think another inponderable is the going, and that horses have been running on terrible ground all winter, and some / many might struggle on better ground, and some will come on leaps and bounds for it.

Also agree re Recession Proof, and I have put him up as having a decent each way chance.

huge amount of impressive analysis you've put in and everything, but i can't help but think that all this work comes to the conclusion that you could have come to without so much effort

"i'll back the favourite!"

I'll be coming up with some non favourites, I promise.

"I'll back the favourite"

A bit rough MP as so far you seem to have come up with one fav and two 2nd favs

Joking aside your contributions are also greatly appreciated and a good read as always.

Mythical Prince - was just reading your Champion Hurdle write-up about Hurricane Fly. I agree with you that he does travel really well throughout his races. However, when I watch him, I get the feeling that once he 'presses the button' he strides ahead (mainly ahead of Solwhit), but then doesn't put a tremendous amount of daylight between him and the rest. He seems to burst clear, but then just maintain that advantage. Don't know whether it's just that he idles when hitting the front, or whether he has one short burst, then just runs on, or whether he doesn't actually find that much once off the bridle. He's a big threat, but the above, combined with lack of Cheltenham experience tips the balance in favour of Binocular for me.

JOCI very good read, and i would love to hear your thoughts regarding the Ryanair and Gold Cup AS both look tricky

tbh, I think the likes of Binocular and Big Zeb are rock solid.

Backing favourites at Cheltenham is the quick way to the poor house but some of them this year have the form in the book as well as being statistically solid.

Cue Card is one horse i'll leave though.

Cue Card is not Dunguib

Bred differently
won at Cheltenham
Jumps a hurdle well.
Form with a top notcher

Howdi taking them differences on board it's hard to believe that Cue Card is 9/4 and Dunguib was odds on.

I can't have a bet in this race on the basis that it's too hard (for me) to factor in value when there is an unknown amount of improvement in a number of the runners.

i'm just not sure about cue card... maybe he lacks the experience to handle a tough battle like the supreme.. basically
you are wagering on him being able to win on the bridle (admittedly a distinct possibility) because would anyone fancy him if it became a war up the hill?

anyway on to day two.

BARING BING

the one who should not be missed here is bobs worth. actually according to the mad monk mordin on his website, the concern with bobs worth is that he has not posted any really dominant displays despite having an advantage in terms of professionalism over his inexperienced rivals. if that makes any sense. Whilst mordin is one of the few media tipsters i have any time for, and posted exceptional results at last years festival, I think he may be overly harsh on bobs worth here.

bobs worth has already shown the one rare but essential requirement of any cheltenham winner, that ability to battle up the hill. in that respect he already reminds me of a previous winner of this race (when it was run under a different name) the great hardy eustace. basically he gives what it says on the tin. if at cheltenham you just back horses that have shown a prospensity to battle, then you can't go far wrong.

oscars well has done nothing wrong and probably deserves to be favourite. however I can't help but think that part of his price is due to the fact that he bashed up zaidpour last time, who to my mind is overrated anyway.

none of the others lower down in the betting hold much appeal so the selection is:

BOBS WORTH.

RSA CHASE

one of the most fascinating races of the whole meeting. this is a race used to identify future stars of the staying division. however more often than not it throws up such a gruelling contest that the winner fails to go on in subsequent seasons.
time for rupert is favourite for the race, and probably deservedly so given his hurdles form. however the real question is does his price represent any real value. I think probably not. after all last year punchestowns had arguably similar credentials in a hotter looking renewal of the rsa, was sent off a longer price than time for rupert is likely to be and he didn't come close to troubling the judge. admittedly time for rupert probably doesn't have the same stamina doubts that one had. still at the current prices i'm more than happy to look elsewhere.

aiteen thirty three has been impressive so far but for me he doesn't look the quickest. when the big guns put it up to him in the meaty part of the race i can imagine him looking woefully one paced. comparisons with denman are probably incorrect, as that one had much better hurdles form and just looked a far more impressive individual full stop.

jessies dream of course is worthy of respect, although theres a doubt in my mind about whether the irish novices are that great this year (or indeed whether the irish challenge is as strong full stop) but the one that really interests me is wymott. this classy individual seems to really relish fences. i've been impressed with his victories so far admittedly in egg and spoon contests. but what really stands out for me is the fact that he's a relentless galloper whos been running at the wrong trip. stepped up in trip i can see him really relishing it and his hardly qualities will see him in good stead up the hill. for me he's the bet of the meeting.

selection: WYMOTT (NAP)

QUEEN MUM

while master minded and big zeb dominate the betting, im inclined to look elsewhere. neither of them look particularly convincing. woolcombe folly is interesting. he posted a particularly fast time when defying top weight at cheltenham earlier in the season, in fact running much faster than master minded did on the same card.

somersby always seems to get outpaced before running on again. thats a concern for any backers though I wouldn't be surprised to see him plug on for a place. however i'm going to go back to last year's arkle for my winner, sizing europe. He has the sort of jumping rhythm that you need for cheltenham, and while admittedly at times can look brittle,the sun on his back will help him and i feel he really blossoms in the spring.

I just can't have captain cee bee with all his injury problems, his age and the fact that he ran so poorly in the arkle last year. golden silver has been thrashed out of sight everytime he's run at cheltenham so put a line through him.

so the selection is:

SIZING EUROPE

will be back with more views later.

WED 16 MAR 2011   
141st Year of National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders´ Novices´ Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)   
4m Number of runners: 57

The opening race on day 2 of the festival is a tricky stamina sapping 4 mile chase for novices, and amateur riders! Shocked    It's a race that has thrown up  a number of shocks over the years, and is something of a nightmare for finding the winner. But that won't stop me trying!

Here's the current field of 57 runners:

1-1321    Aberdale112
911111    Alfa Beat182
10-413    Alfie Sherrin32
432221    Arabella Boy21
81P-15    Bai Zhu109
822U36    Ballyegan15
21-322    Ballymak21
31-325    Be There In Five52
411-B1    Beshabar21
120-51    Born Again132
5-4521    C´Est Ca18
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
6-1813    Captain Americo39
UUP-98    Carlas Dream20
P-31U1    Chamirey18
211F25    Chicago Grey78
3-34PU    Double Pride16
294240    Flying Doctor21
22221    Fredo41
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
2-21FF    Glenwood Knight26
F4112P    Gonebeyondrecall95
5-116P    Inch Native48
123U17    Macs Lad146
3-5112    Magnanimity32
0/131P    Major Malarkey25
4312P    Minella Boys18
1-7P7U    Mister Marker29
F5/6-P    Mna Na Heirinn50
83F21F    Mostly Bob18
78834U    No More Prisoners14
7532U9    Not Before Eight35
10-414    On His Own39
41-4PF    Only The Best30
23F84    Othermix49
121F6P    Overquest18
16279    Pay The Bounty28
4-2213    Pearlysteps46
381566    Pilgrims Lane151
42421    Promising Anshan26
4-F183    Quadrillon47
57-711    Quantitativeeasing36
2F6-1F    Quel Esprit32
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
21386    Regal Approach39
4331P    Sam Adams32
56-F14    Sheshali34
5-2351    Some Target45
117-11    Sona Sasta56
285-2P    Strategic Approach92
2U121    Tharawaat18
216242    The Ferbane Man19
301FF3    Triggerman39
4/2236    Uncle Junior49
P-2225    Voramar Two49
21-111    Wayward Prince39
1324F    Western Charmer18


First up, I'd eliminate all horses that failed to finish in the top 2 last time out (relaxing this to allow horses who either fell or were brought down last time). This whiitles the field down to a more manageable number:

1-1321    Aberdale112
911111    Alfa Beat182
432221    Arabella Boy21
21-322    Ballymak21
411-B1    Beshabar21
120-51    Born Again132
5-4521    C´Est Ca18
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
P-31U1    Chamirey18
3-34PU    Double Pride16
22221    Fredo41
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
2-21FF    Glenwood Knight26
3-5112    Magnanimity32
1-7P7U    Mister Marker29
41-4PF    Only The Best30
42421    Promising Anshan26
57-711    Quantitativeeasing36
2F6-1F    Quel Esprit32
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
5-2351    Some Target45
117-11    Sona Sasta56
2U121    Tharawaat18
216242    The Ferbane Man19
21-111    Wayward Prince39
1324F    Western Charmer18


I'd next be looking to overlook horses aged less than seven, as this is one of the ultimate stamina tests, and is seldom won by very young horses. This statistic rules out a further 5 horses, leaving a field of 21. This can be further reduced by eliminating any horse not finishing in the top 2 in a three mile chase during their career. This relieves us of a further 8 horses. If we also apply the criterion that the winner is likely to have had more than 2 runs over fences, then that rules out another horse in Sona Sasta. Following this, we are left with a shortlist of 12.

I would then look to disregard horses who have not benefited from a recent outing, and dismiss horses who have not run within the last 50 days. This stat rules out two quite fancies horses in Aberdale and Alfa Beat, leaving the following shortlist of 10 horses.

411-B1    Beshabar21
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
P-31U1    Chamirey18
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
2-21FF    Glenwood Knight26
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
5-2351    Some Target45
216242    The Ferbane Man19
21-111    Wayward Prince39
1324F    Western Charmer18

I would also, at this stage be prepared to rule out Western Charmer on account of the fact that he's the only shortlisted horse not to have won any kind of race in excess of 23 miles. The furthest he has won over is 2m 4f so it is a bit of a leap of faith to fancy him over the marathon trip of 4 miles. In addition, I'm not happy with the fact that Glenwood Knight has fallen on his last two outings, and can't find a place for him in my final shortlist. On the balance of his form, The Ferbane Man looks like he might not be quite good enough to take a race of this nature. This leaves me with a final shortlist of 7 horses

411-B1    Beshabar21
3-3622    Cannington Brook32
P-31U1    Chamirey18
F45U11    Galaxy Rock15
1-1211    Quito De La Roque31
5-2351    Some Target45
21-111    Wayward Prince39


Beshabar
Beshabar ran a very strange race in his penultimate start at Cheltenham, in the race won by Wayward Prince. He'd been on and off the bridle, and didn't really jump with any fluency at all, but was still creeping into contention at the 2nd last, and was unlucky to be brought down by the fall of Chicago Grey (who looked like he might have gone on to win the race). He followed that up at Doncaster with a workmanlike victory at odds on against Cool Mission, showing great battling qualities in a protracted battle up the finishing straight. Doesn't lack the heart for a battle based on that evidence, and he seems to stay well enough, but his overall jumping will need to be a lot better when back at Prestbury, if he's not going to give himself too much to do. Could be one to creep into a place if jumping holds together.

Cannington Brook
I've watched a few of Cannington Brook's races, and the thing that has struck me is that he seems to be travelling very well throughout his races. However, he's failed to get his head in front over fences, and indeed has registered only one hurdle success in his 9 attempts under Rules. I suspect he doesn't find that much when coming under pressure, and I don't think those are the qualities that are required for a race such as this.

Chamirey
An interesting contender. If you go back almost exactly a year, you'll find Chamirey running a very good race at Cheltenham, to finish third to Buena Vista in the Pertemps Final. This showed his aptitude for the course. His three most recent outings over fences have produced a couple of wide margin wins (mishaps befalling some of his rivals) and has seen him unseat. I doubt that the form stacks up against that of some of his potential rivals, but his showing at last year's Festival might signify he finds his best during the Spring, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him run a nice race at a decent price.

Galaxy Rock
Won his final prep race at Leicester in effortless fashion in what became something of a one sided match after two of his rivals bit the dust. He's not really had to come off the bridle in these events, but the one thing that slightly puts me off, is that he's made a couple of howlers at the odd fence, once at the final fence and once when unseating at Folkestone. As one of the contributots to this thread mentioned earlier, a combination of a 4 mile trip, stiff fences, amateur jocks and novices is a recipe for chaos, and I'd want to have a horse that is a solid jumper on my side under these conditions. Whilst you have to respect the 'Jonjo factor', I prefer the claims of others.

Quito De La Roque
Has been plying his trade in relatively small field Irish graded chases (Grade 1 and Grade 2), so has been competing at a relatively high standard, and his only defeat saw him short headed by the highly regarded Boston's Angel. He has proven himself in large fields (albeit over hurdles by winning a race contested of 25 runners). What strikes me about this horse is that whilst he doesn't do anything quickly, he invariably seems to be putting in his best work at the business end of races, and shapes like a thorough stayer to me.  At times, he's appeared to be outpaced but has always rallied and stayed on strongly at the finish, and my contention is that in another 50 yards, would have beaten Bostons Angel. Hails from the Colm Murphy stable, I think he's a leading contender.

Some Target
Has to be respected after his victory in the 3m 4f Grand National Trial at Punchestown at the end of January, where he stayed on well under Paul Townend to repel all comers. His stamina is not in doubt. He hails from one of the most powerful Irish stables and will be fancied. I'm put off however, by looking a bit further back into his form to see that he finished way behind Royal De La Thinte (and another potential opponent in this race Ballymak). The former has been twice beaten by Quito De La Roque, so you're banking on the extreme distances really bringing out the best in the horse if you think he's the likely winner here.

Wayward Prince
I'd be very interested in this horse if it turns up on the day, as I think he might turn out to be the classiest of the runners. I do think he's more likely to contest the RSA Chase however, and as a result, would not offer him up as the selection here.

Conclusion
A very difficult race for me to pick the winner over the years, and not one to have a large bet on. However, I do have quite a strong fancy in this one and it's Quito De La Roque. I like his attitude, and the fact that he battles away, and wins races despite not looking like he might. I'm hoping (and it can only really be hope) that the extra distance will suit, and that he stays on up the hill under pressure, to take this event. I take the point made earlier, that the jockey booking could be very important. I would fancy Wayward Prince if he takes his chance too.

Not a current favourite either!

I like Alfie Sherrin. He looked like he was going to win 2 out at Warwick last time behind the useful Silver Kate, but not really sure what happended, he jumped and travelled but then weakend out of it, at a time when the jonjo horses were going through a lean spell.

McCoy was due to ride at Newbury that day, but when it got cancelled because of them electrocutions he went up to Warwick to ride it so must have believed it had a great chance. If Jonjo's horse come into so decent form soon,then i'll give he another chance, as his pedigree is stamina laden, trainer has great record in race, and was impressive on penultimate start.

I love Quito as a horse, a fine perform and great attitude. But I think he is 4/4 on officially Heavy going.

That said, you would not want heavy ground over this trip anyway.

David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle (Grade 2)
£70000.00 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f, Class 1
26 runners

No need for much of a preview here, and due to the fact that this is one of the newest Festival races, there isn't a reliable set of statistics / trends that can be used for analysis. In any case, one horse stands out by a mile for me, and not surprisingly Quevega will probably be one of my lumpier bets of the Festival, despite the very cramped odds. Has been impressive on both previous visits and has good form away from Cheltenham in easily winning at Punchestown (beating a useful field) at the back end of last season.

Selection: Quevega (NAP)

Tuesday March 15 2011   
Cheltenham 14:40   
Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase (Grade 3)   
£75000.00 added, 5yo plus, 3m 110y, Class 1   
85 runners   
   

The big handicap chase on the opening day of the Festival. Loads of potential runners at this stage, and it's going to be very tough to find definite runners, let alone the winner, but let's give it a try.
   
Form    Horse
23-1443    Nacarat (FR)
5/340-15Siegemaster (IRE)
313/6-11Blazing Bailey
10/113-1Quinz (FR)
211/2P1    Noland
1111/10-Weird Al (IRE)
33P/30-1Rare Bob (IRE)
3111/11    BallaBriggs (IRE)
11F/230    Breedsbreeze (IRE)
14P1/0-FTaranis (FR)
F-U563U    Mahogany Blaze (FR)
103-244    Take The Breeze (FR)
0011-05    Chief Dan George (IRE)
500/1-03Fair Along (GER)
1441-62    Great Endeavour (IRE)
5-P4021    Knockara Beau (IRE)
P-36310    Tatenen (FR)
221/1-22Carole's Legacy
F32111    Roi Du Mee (FR)
1202/12-Presenting Forever (IRE)
B4/43-0UExmoor Ranger (IRE)
20-15B1    Radium (FR)
U1/5-31UBakbenscher
F2F2-52    Bensalem (IRE)
40-1P22    Cape Tribulation
423P/15    Crescent Island (IRE)
6/11425-Balthazar King (IRE)
PPP/50-2Beat The Boys (IRE)
P21-046    Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
211-11P    King Fontaine (IRE)
14/22-13Pearlysteps
21-4130    Reve de Sivola (FR)
13130-0    Ogee
250-011    Quantitativeeasing (IRE)
5312-03    Sunnyhillboy (IRE)
20-2U51    Far More Serious (IRE)
21U5-1P    Fistral Beach (IRE)
0P-234P    Piraya (FR)
1P4-0P6    Razor Royale (IRE)
1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
211/31-2Tarablaze
0-50642    The Sawyer (BEL)
PP-F6U6    Atouchbetweenacara (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
11-0313    Chance du Roy (FR)
3402P/0-Faasel (IRE)
321112    Putney Bridge
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
3-2U121    Tharawaat (IRE)
2301-60    Chasing Cars (IRE)
2P-3430    Deal Done (FR)
112/412    Definity (IRE)
03F-21F    Mostly Bob (IRE)
11F0/66    Saddlers Storm (IRE)
0D0133    Slippers Percy (IRE)
425251    Swing Bill (FR)
33F-120    Matuhi
P1-2P10    Den of Iniquity
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)
25F1/PP-Gentle Ranger (IRE)
510-300    Pigeon Island
1/PP-11PSagalyrique (FR)
414322    The Rainbow Hunter
PF4/53-6Pomme Tiepy (FR)
2112/4F    Carronhills (IRE)
110-331    Lake Legend
025/0-P5New Alco (FR)
0412/PP    The Sliotar (IRE)
P3F-614    Carrickmines (IRE)
41P0/05-Idole First (IRE)
312/U-3ULeading Contender (IRE)
F6232P    Safari Adventures (IRE)
1U042/P    Aimigayle
11/101    Beautiful Sound (IRE)
141P3P    No Panic (IRE)
00/P4-3POfficier De Reserve (FR)
P4-0305    Tramantano
P4/001P    Only Vintage (USA)
23-4F12    Frankie Anson (IRE)
3P-335F    Le Burf (FR)
223254    Ballyvesey (IRE)
0-36P51    Wolf Moon (IRE)
16P206    Quattrocento (FR)
6304P1    Wellforth (IRE)


My first port of call will be to eliminate (at this stage) horses set to carry 11 stone +, as 10 out of the last 10 winners have carried less than this mark. This rules out a significant portion of the field, and several of the most fancied runners.

40-1P22    Cape Tribulation
423P/15    Crescent Island (IRE)
6/11425-Balthazar King (IRE)
PPP/50-2Beat The Boys (IRE)
P21-046    Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
211-11P    King Fontaine (IRE)
14/22-13Pearlysteps
21-4130    Reve de Sivola (FR)
13130-0    Ogee
250-011    Quantitativeeasing (IRE)
5312-03    Sunnyhillboy (IRE)
20-2U51    Far More Serious (IRE)
21U5-1P    Fistral Beach (IRE)
0P-234P    Piraya (FR)
1P4-0P6    Razor Royale (IRE)
1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
211/31-2Tarablaze
0-50642    The Sawyer (BEL)
PP-F6U6    Atouchbetweenacara (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
11-0313    Chance du Roy (FR)
3402P/0-Faasel (IRE)
321112    Putney Bridge
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
3-2U121    Tharawaat (IRE)
2301-60    Chasing Cars (IRE)
2P-3430    Deal Done (FR)
112/412    Definity (IRE)
03F-21F    Mostly Bob (IRE)
11F0/66    Saddlers Storm (IRE)
0D0133    Slippers Percy (IRE)
425251    Swing Bill (FR)
33F-120    Matuhi
P1-2P10    Den of Iniquity
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)
25F1/PP-Gentle Ranger (IRE)
510-300    Pigeon Island
1/PP-11PSagalyrique (FR)
414322    The Rainbow Hunter
PF4/53-6Pomme Tiepy (FR)
2112/4F    Carronhills (IRE)
110-331    Lake Legend
025/0-P5New Alco (FR)
0412/PP    The Sliotar (IRE)
P3F-614    Carrickmines (IRE)
41P0/05-Idole First (IRE)
312/U-3ULeading Contender (IRE)
F6232P    Safari Adventures (IRE)
1U042/P    Aimigayle
11/101    Beautiful Sound (IRE)
141P3P    No Panic (IRE)
00/P4-3POfficier De Reserve (FR)
P4-0305    Tramantano
P4/001P    Only Vintage (USA)
23-4F12    Frankie Anson (IRE)
3P-335F    Le Burf (FR)
223254    Ballyvesey (IRE)
0-36P51    Wolf Moon (IRE)
16P206    Quattrocento (FR)
6304P1    Wellforth (IRE)

Next, I'd be keen to oppose horses on account of their age. Horses aged 6 or younger seldom have the experience for a race of this nature, and similarly, horses aged 11+, are likely to be a bit 'long in the tooth'. This eliminates a further 9 runners, to leave:

40-1P22    Cape Tribulation
423P/15    Crescent Island (IRE)
6/11425-Balthazar King (IRE)
PPP/50-2Beat The Boys (IRE)
P21-046    Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
211-11P    King Fontaine (IRE)
14/22-13Pearlysteps
13130-0    Ogee
5312-03    Sunnyhillboy (IRE)
21U5-1P    Fistral Beach (IRE)
0P-234P    Piraya (FR)
1P4-0P6    Razor Royale (IRE)
1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
211/31-2Tarablaze
PP-F6U6    Atouchbetweenacara (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
11-0313    Chance du Roy (FR)
3402P/0-Faasel (IRE)
321112    Putney Bridge
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
2301-60    Chasing Cars (IRE)
2P-3430    Deal Done (FR)
112/412    Definity (IRE)
03F-21F    Mostly Bob (IRE)
11F0/66    Saddlers Storm (IRE)
0D0133    Slippers Percy (IRE)
425251    Swing Bill (FR)
33F-120    Matuhi
P1-2P10    Den of Iniquity
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)
25F1/PP-Gentle Ranger (IRE)
510-300    Pigeon Island
1/PP-11PSagalyrique (FR)
414322    The Rainbow Hunter
PF4/53-6Pomme Tiepy (FR)
2112/4F    Carronhills (IRE)
110-331    Lake Legend
025/0-P5New Alco (FR)
0412/PP    The Sliotar (IRE)
P3F-614    Carrickmines (IRE)
312/U-3ULeading Contender (IRE)
F6232P    Safari Adventures (IRE)
1U042/P    Aimigayle
11/101    Beautiful Sound (IRE)
141P3P    No Panic (IRE)
00/P4-3POfficier De Reserve (FR)
23-4F12    Frankie Anson (IRE)
3P-335F    Le Burf (FR)
0-36P51    Wolf Moon (IRE)
16P206    Quattrocento (FR)
6304P1    Wellforth (IRE)

On the basis of class, I'd also look to oppose those at the bottom end of the handicap as horses rated 129 or below are (a) unlikely to get a run and (b) not likely to fare very well if they do get a run. A further 11 horses get the chop at this stage, which still leaves a fairly sizeable field of 41:

40-1P22    Cape Tribulation
423P/15    Crescent Island (IRE)
6/11425-Balthazar King (IRE)
PPP/50-2Beat The Boys (IRE)
P21-046    Bluesea Cracker (IRE)
211-11P    King Fontaine (IRE)
14/22-13Pearlysteps
13130-0    Ogee
5312-03    Sunnyhillboy (IRE)
21U5-1P    Fistral Beach (IRE)
0P-234P    Piraya (FR)
1P4-0P6    Razor Royale (IRE)
1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
211/31-2Tarablaze
PP-F6U6    Atouchbetweenacara (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
11-0313    Chance du Roy (FR)
3402P/0-Faasel (IRE)
321112    Putney Bridge
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
2301-60    Chasing Cars (IRE)
2P-3430    Deal Done (FR)
112/412    Definity (IRE)
03F-21F    Mostly Bob (IRE)
11F0/66    Saddlers Storm (IRE)
0D0133    Slippers Percy (IRE)
425251    Swing Bill (FR)
33F-120    Matuhi
P1-2P10    Den of Iniquity
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)
25F1/PP-Gentle Ranger (IRE)
510-300    Pigeon Island
1/PP-11PSagalyrique (FR)
414322    The Rainbow Hunter
PF4/53-6Pomme Tiepy (FR)
2112/4F    Carronhills (IRE)
110-331    Lake Legend
025/0-P5New Alco (FR)
0412/PP    The Sliotar (IRE)
F6232P    Safari Adventures (IRE)

I'd be seeking assurance of decent current / recent form next, and would be prepared to overlook any horse not finishing in the top 3 last time out. This finds out a decent number of candidates, leaving the following (longish) shortlist:

40-1P22    Cape Tribulation
PPP/50-2Beat The Boys (IRE)
14/22-13Pearlysteps
5312-03    Sunnyhillboy (IRE)
1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
211/31-2Tarablaze
113502    Billie Magern
11-0313    Chance du Roy (FR)
321112    Putney Bridge
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
112/412    Definity (IRE)
0D0133    Slippers Percy (IRE)
425251    Swing Bill (FR)
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)
414322    The Rainbow Hunter
110-331    Lake Legend


I'd want to be relatively sure that my horse would be guaranteed to get the trip, and whilst past form is not necessarily a concrete guide to whether a horse will stay  atrip, I'm overlooking horses who have not has a win over 3 miles+. This eliminates a further 6 horese including the fancied Sunnyhillboy.

40-1P22    Cape Tribulation
PPP/50-2Beat The Boys (IRE)
14/22-13Pearlysteps
1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
211/31-2Tarablaze
113502    Billie Magern
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
112/412    Definity (IRE)
0D0133    Slippers Percy (IRE)
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)

The typical profile of a winner is a horse who has a decent amount of experience without being too exposed. As a guide, statistics say that the winner is likely to have had between 2 and 5 chase wins during his career. Applying this stat narrows the field down to a shortlist of 5:


1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
410/1P-1Summery Justice (IRE)
3131/3-2Junior
213102    Adams Island (IRE)

Eliminiating horses that have failed to win a class 3 chase ot better leaves us with a final three horses of:

1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
3131/3-2Junior

I'd be looking to back these three for small stakes if they turn up on the day. Skippers Brig won very recently, and could potentially be saved for the National. Bille Magern just seems to be something of a nearly horse, and usually seems to find something to good for him. The horse I'd be more interested in would be David Pipe's Junior. Junior has some pretty reasonable Cheltenham form to his name, finishing 3rd behind Midnight Chase at the Paddy Power meeting, then being put away for a while, and resurfacing over hurdles, again at Prestbury Park to run a decent race in 2nd behind Ashkazar in the New Year. This could well have been just to give him another outing yet preserve his handicap rating for this race. I'd put him up as a smalle ach way bet, but it might be a bit of a risk, as he's going to need a good few above him in the handicap to defect. If he gets in, then he'd be my selection.

Selection - Junior (Each Way)

I bloody hope Junior doesnt go for this because im on in the kim Muir!!!!!

Hi Joci, really enjoy reading ur write ups, however I believe that Junior is almost certain to line up in the Kim Muir, u have a really hard job on the handicaps, as you say horses carrying over 11 stone do not win this, however unless u are certain you know what will be the top weighted horse on the day it is very difficult. But keep up the good work.

Yep, that is the difficulty with these races at this stage, in a lot of cases you can't be sure to be on a horse that's going to run. Could be one to wait until the final decs and re-evaluate then. Interested to see if I come up with a similar conclusion when I get round to the Kim Muir.

TUE 15 MAR 2011
Centenary Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-140)
2m4f110y Number of runners: 73

Formerly known as the Jewson, another minefield at theis stage to find a runner never mind a winner, but we'll see what we can come up with. Initial field of 73 stand their ground:

U-3312    Qozak21
8-2132    Phidippides12
U211F    Songe59
57-711    Quantitativeeasing35
15F471    Aerial24
34211    Premier Sagas26
813113    Mr Cracker51
F-4111    Kerada26
91212    Tullamore Dew57
U22415    Hollo Ladies38
1-7111    William´s Wishes44
5-2351    Some Target44
2F1251    Prince Erik9 5x
1324F    Western Charmer17
5-2112    Blazing Tempo47
23-116    Nadiya De La Vega38
5460-1    Aigle D´Or109
91-114    Swincombe Rock110
2U121    Tharawaat17
19P413    Quo Video26
252513    Swing Bill10
8-1242    On Borrowed Wings24
12/412    Definity30
P-1130    Glenstal Abbey31
4F231    Rougham52
05-FF1    The Knoxs35
FF513    American Trilogy17
2-3117    Shakalakaboomboom45
1U222    Tara Royal115
56323    Vino Griego36
6-3125    Lastoftheleaders30
11212F    Osric40
19661    Quartz De Thaix22
414322    The Rainbow Hunter25
031591    Divers37
31163    Sway55
426221    Alderley Rover32
64-113    Invisible Man170
P-1243    Have You Seen Me57
21-313    Rackham Lerouge39
5-4521    C´Est Ca17
238911    As De Fer30
0-3312    Lake Legend10
17313    Mister Stickler19
7-6012    Sarando16
424421    Shirley Casper9 5x
661F21    Carrigmartin16
20-1PB    Penny´s Bill51
142F2    Ravethebrave32
11346    Cootehill45
406312    Dinarius18
16279    Pay The Bounty27
F1839    Quadrillon9
5214U    Misstree Dancer24
02-1U8    Erritt Lake51
124554    Frontier Dancer11
121P3    Chain Of Command40
312124    Inside Dealer30
P6-325    Straw Bear24
FF6113    Forget It17
145013    By The Hour16
4-123    Pouvoir16
36P51    Wolf Moon15 5x
221221    Betabob27
232544    Ballyvesey9
4/2U83    Carrickboy52
552-2    Princeful26
228F1    Mr Syntax21
0-8449    Gus Macrae10
4-3P85    Our Bob10
381P12    You Know Yourself24
1111U1    Douglas Julian24
6-641F    Locked Inthepocket27

As a first point, I'd be looking for horses finishing in the first two last time out but I'm prepared to extend that to give horses falling or being brought down last time out a stay of execution. This takes out a sizeable portion of the original runners:

U-3312    Qozak21
8-2132    Phidippides12
U211F    Songe59
57-711    Quantitativeeasing35
15F471    Aerial24
34211    Premier Sagas26
F-4111    Kerada26
91212    Tullamore Dew57
1-7111    William´s Wishes44
5-2351    Some Target44
2F1251    Prince Erik9 5x
1324F    Western Charmer17
5-2112    Blazing Tempo47
5460-1    Aigle D´Or109
2U121    Tharawaat17
8-1242    On Borrowed Wings24
12/412    Definity30
4F231    Rougham52
05-FF1    The Knoxs35
1U222    Tara Royal115
11212F    Osric40
19661    Quartz De Thaix22
414322    The Rainbow Hunter25
031591    Divers37
426221    Alderley Rover32
5-4521    C´Est Ca17
238911    As De Fer30
0-3312    Lake Legend10
7-6012    Sarando16
424421    Shirley Casper9 5x
661F21    Carrigmartin16
20-1PB    Penny´s Bill51
142F2    Ravethebrave32
406312    Dinarius18
5214U    Misstree Dancer24
36P51    Wolf Moon15 5x
221221    Betabob27
552-2    Princeful26
228F1    Mr Syntax21
381P12    You Know Yourself24
1111U1    Douglas Julian24
6-641F    Locked Inthepocket27

Next, as a sign of a horses ability, you'd want to be on horses that in completed chase starts, have not finished outside of the top three on any occasion. This statistic weeds out a significant number of runners, resulting in a much more manageable field of 15 potential runners.

U-3312    Qozak21
8-2132    Phidippides12
F-4111    Kerada26
91212    Tullamore Dew57
1-7111    William´s Wishes44
5-2112    Blazing Tempo47
2U121    Tharawaat17
4F231    Rougham52
05-FF1    The Knoxs35
1U222    Tara Royal115
11212F    Osric40
238911    As De Fer30
0-3312    Lake Legend10
406312    Dinarius18
1111U1    Douglas Julian24

History suggests that horses to win this race are going to be in the 133 to 140 OR bracket, so we can use this to eliminate the bottom four horses, leaving a field of 11 to work on.

U-3312    Qozak21
8-2132    Phidippides12
F-4111    Kerada26
91212    Tullamore Dew57
1-7111    William´s Wishes44
5-2112    Blazing Tempo47
2U121    Tharawaat17
4F231    Rougham52
05-FF1    The Knoxs35
1U222    Tara Royal115
11212F    Osric40

An interesting statistic suggests that the race is normally won by a horse who hasn't given too much away to the handicapper, and in fact, all of the previous 6 winners had not won more than once over fences. I usually loike to back / follow multiple winners, so it's going against the grain somewhat to exclude them here, but statistically, that's the best move. This narrow the filed down to the following, none of whom have won more than once over the larger obstacles.

U-3312    Qozak21
8-2132    Phidippides12
4F231    Rougham52
05-FF1    The Knoxs35
1U222    Tara Royal115
11212F    Osric40

Rougham is the next to get the chop, on account of not having won over 2m 4f+, which is normally a prerequisite. Furthermore, winners of this race have also shown a decent level of form over hurdles (an official rating of 130+). Both Tara Royal and Osric failed to achieve this, so are eliminated. This leaves us with the final 3 horses:

U-3312    Qozak21
8-2132    Phidippides12
05-FF1    The Knoxs35

Conclusion: Without being certain of what's going to be running in this race, my shortlist consists of three horses. The Paul Nicholls trained Quozak, and the Evan Williams trained Phidippides, both sahring top weight of 11 10 at this stage. Making up the trio, is the The Knoxs, trained by Howard Johnson, carrying 11 07. Of the two highest weighted horses, I'd have a preference for Quozak. The Knoxs would interest me, as he's fallen in two of his last three races, one of which he was certain to win when coming to grief at the last. That might have been a blessing in disguise, and he may be capable of better. Whilst I'd be concened about his jumping, he does tick most of the boxes, and is a decent speculative each way fancy.

Selections:

The Knoxs (e/w) - currently 26s
Quozak (e/w) - currently 32s

Hopefully, we might get a run from one or both of those two.

How strong a trend is the 21f ? Chapotugreon hadn't won at the trip before ..

Rougham looks a close call on trends imo.

5 out of last 6 winners

Chapo had never attempted that distance, so was a valid exception. Rougham is a decent shout on the trends and only gets knocked out on account of the trip. He has had a run over 2m 5f, unlike Chapoturgeon, so has at least had a shot at it. Not sure that his pedigree screams stamina (Chapoturgeon seemed to be more stoutly bred). Rougham did make the shortlist of 6 though. and wouldn't be a great surprise if he were thereabouts.

TUE 15 MAR 2011   
Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (A Cross Country Chase) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)   
3m7f Number of runners: 33   
   
Here's the Cross Country event, where they go round and round, and round and round, and round and round and round and round and round and round, then come up the finishing straight, and one of Enda Bolger's wins!    
   
FORM    HORSE
5-6221    Garde Champetre34
1-1160    L´Ami44
70-193    Fair Along25
F-FF25    Quolibet107
508423    Northern Alliance19
3218R2    King Johns Castle16P
22-41F    Gullible Gordon114
568063    A New Story9
1PP-PP    Dream Alliance66
04-138    Sizing Australia30
521-04    Freneys Well123
0-053U    One Cool Cookie34
511P-7    Poker De Sivola77
12P518    Quezac De La Roque21
321112    Putney Bridge241
41-P18    Oscar Bay202
670    Always Waining10
31322    Lord Nellerie34
43-12P    Another Jewel24
53F-F7    Maljimar73
594008    Hills Of Aran25
432221    Arabella Boy20
F-F3PP    Pass Me By59
429-45    The Halfway Bar23P
64283F    Merry Cowboy13
09451P    Double Dizzy10
3PPF48    Magic Sky10
52125    Mr Big25
232544    Ballyvesey9
16P206    Quattrocento21
6304P1    Wellforth25
U/0-80    Ford Of Wells265
52522    Camden George26

Not my favourite race of the Festival, but I always have a stab at it. Have made a few bob on Garde Champetre over the years, and once again looking at the trends, he appears to be the horse most likely to fit the bill. He's now at a reasonable price too, but I'm concerned in that he's failed to win here now on two successive occasions, and I'm wondering is there something else to throw down a challenge. Nothing really fits the bill trend wise, so I'm tempted to look for a larger priced runner.

The one I might have a few quid on each way is Lord Nellerie. Last time out at Punchestown, over the 3 mile cross country course, Lord Nellerie finished second (beaten 3 1/2 lengths) to Garde Champetre. Now this was over three miles, and Lord Nellerie will need to prove as effective over the extra 7 furlongs of this race, but on the day, was getting 7lbs from Garde Champetre. In this race, Lord Nellerie will be in receipt of 22lbs from Garde Champetre. On that basis, I think it might be worth a little bit each way to finish in the frame.

Selections:

Garde Champetre - small win bet due to trends and decent odds
Lord Nellerie - small each way bet

Lord Nellerie currently 28/1 on here.

I seem to have covered all of Tuesday's races now (some in greater detail than others), so here's a quick summary of selections:

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Junior (e/w); also shortlisted Skippers Brig / Billie Magern

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w) & Quozak (e/w)

Yes agree on the breeding part.

WED 16 MAR 2011   
Neptune Investment Management Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Baring Bingham Novices´ Hurdle) (CLASS 1) (4yo+)   
2m5f Number of runners: 96

This race normally throws out some very decent winners over the years, and it doesn't normally pay to look for the winner outside the top 6 in the betting. However, let's see what the statistical trens say about this race. Loads of horses to pore over at the moment:

5-6161    Accordintolawrence47
115B02    Ackertac21
1741    Act Of Kalanisi25
1F211    Aikman20
2-F311    Al Ferof32
131866    Astracad74
41-134    Aughaloor24
1-114    Backspin46
111123    Ballyadam Brook124
7-112    Ballyhaunis52
123441    Battle Group18
15114    Bishopsfurze20
21-111    Bobs Worth46
1-315    Bottman36
2114    Captain Kirkton20
1-134    Carribs Leap53
17-615    Cavite Beta47
1-05    Clonbur131
82U2    Cotillion23
2-1212    Court In Motion25
10-1    Day Of A Lifetime52
45-321    Dynaste76
PF-F92    Earlson Gray45
5-2294    Endless Intrigue17
231178    Far Away So Close32
1-4131    First Lieutenant77
77-23    Fiulin137
66-111    Gagewell Flyer45
22221    Gift Of Dgab19
1775    Giveabobback39
4-1133    Habbie Simpson46
3-1F04    High Benefit12
1-141    Highland Valley31
F1235    Indian Daudaie32
21-151    King Of The Night47
121113    Macville77
1-1223    Megastar26
12-112    Minella Class20
F-1115    Mossley60
14176    Nicene Creed18
3812    No Secrets53
22-446    O Malley´s Oscar12
33326    Ohio Gold46
4-3316    Old McDonald32
0-2111    Oscars Well32
11-111    Our Girl Salley59
2F111    Our Island26
27-14    Pickapocketortwo28
4-4113    Pride In Battle20
1-61    Prince Of Pirates96
11-112    Rock On Ruby46
3172F3    Saint Are11
40632U    Sheer Genius17
00-213    Shot From The Hip32
6-2522    Sicilian Secret11
75332    Silver Roque36
31    Sinbad The Sailor35
5-6425    Smart Freddy25
211-11    So Young35
1-415    Spanish Treasure49
233-11    Spirit Of Adjisa24
11-211    Sprinter Sacre25
6-137    The Pier20
3217    Tillahow32
12112    Tornado Bob25
3-1236    Tornedo Shay24
1-1021    Westmeath17
1122    Zaidpour32
   
A sensible place to start would be to eliminate any horse that didn't finish either first or second last time out, as the race is almost invariably won by a horse that achieves this. This takes over 30 horses out of the equation.

5-6161    Accordintolawrence47
115B02    Ackertac21
1741    Act Of Kalanisi25
1F211    Aikman20
2-F311    Al Ferof32
7-112    Ballyhaunis52
123441    Battle Group18
21-111    Bobs Worth46
82U2    Cotillion23
2-1212    Court In Motion25
10-1    Day Of A Lifetime52
45-321    Dynaste76
PF-F92    Earlson Gray45
1-4131    First Lieutenant77
66-111    Gagewell Flyer45
22221    Gift Of Dgab19
1-141    Highland Valley31
21-151    King Of The Night47
12-112    Minella Class20
3812    No Secrets53
0-2111    Oscars Well32
11-111    Our Girl Salley59
2F111    Our Island26
1-61    Prince Of Pirates96
11-112    Rock On Ruby46
6-2522    Sicilian Secret11
75332    Silver Roque36
31    Sinbad The Sailor35
211-11    So Young35
233-11    Spirit Of Adjisa24
11-211    Sprinter Sacre25
12112    Tornado Bob25
1-1021    Westmeath17
1122    Zaidpour32

Age is a very good pointer for this race, and we can restrict ourselves to 5 or 6 year olds. The last ten winners have been aged 5 or 6. This weeds out another 7 runners:

5-6161    Accordintolawrence47
115B02    Ackertac21
1741    Act Of Kalanisi25
2-F311    Al Ferof32
7-112    Ballyhaunis52
123441    Battle Group18
21-111    Bobs Worth46
82U2    Cotillion23
2-1212    Court In Motion25
10-1    Day Of A Lifetime52
45-321    Dynaste76
PF-F92    Earlson Gray45
1-4131    First Lieutenant77
1-141    Highland Valley31
12-112    Minella Class20
0-2111    Oscars Well32
11-111    Our Girl Salley59
2F111    Our Island26
1-61    Prince Of Pirates96
11-112    Rock On Ruby46
75332    Silver Roque36
31    Sinbad The Sailor35
211-11    So Young35
11-211    Sprinter Sacre25
12112    Tornado Bob25
1-1021    Westmeath17
1122    Zaidpour32

In addition to finishing first or second last time out, the profile of most winning horses shows them never finishing out of the top 2 in all of their completed hurdles races, and if we apply this trend, then we lose another 15 contenders.

21-111    Bobs Worth46
2-1212    Court In Motion25
10-1    Day Of A Lifetime52
0-2111    Oscars Well32
11-111    Our Girl Salley59
2F111    Our Island26
1-61    Prince Of Pirates96
11-112    Rock On Ruby46
211-11    So Young35
11-211    Sprinter Sacre25
12112    Tornado Bob25
1122    Zaidpour32

A good measure of the class of the remainding contenders is whether or not they have finished first or second in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 hurdle, and pattern race performers have a dominant record in this race. Five of the remaining field fail this test and can be eliminated.

21-111    Bobs Worth46
2-1212    Court In Motion25
10-1    Day Of A Lifetime52
0-2111    Oscars Well32
1-61    Prince Of Pirates96
11-112    Rock On Ruby46
1122    Zaidpour32

Winners of this race need to have a decent amount of stamina, and a win over 2m 4f or further is normally a prerequisite for success (9 of the last 10 winners). This rules out Day Of A Lifetime, Prince Of Pirates leaving a final shortlist of four horses:

21-111    Bobs Worth46
2-1212    Court In Motion25
0-2111    Oscars Well32
1122    Zaidpour32

Bobs Worth
Has somewhat surprised trainer and connections with his performances so fsr this season and has seemingly surpassed expectations. Looks like the kind of horse you'd want to have on your side in a battle as evidenced by his battling win over Rock On Ruby at Cheltenham, following up on his earlier win there. Has good course form and looks sure to give supporters a run for their money. The question remains as to whether he will have the necessary class to overcome Nicky Henderson's terrible record in this race?

Court In Motion
Was very strongly fancied for this race, until meeting a setback at odds on in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at Haydock, when being beaten fair and square by Back In Focus (albeit conceding 7 lbs). The wide margin, very easy success at Warwick in his prior race marked him out as a horse going places, but he also met defaet at the hands of Backspin prior to that in the fog at Newbury (had Al Ferof back in 3rd). Should put in a bold showing but I prefer the claims of others.

Oscars Well
A leading Irish contender (Irish horses have excellent record in this race), Oscars Well has Grade 1 winning form in Ireland, highlighted by his success in the Deloitte Hurdle from a decent field and which included a comfortable victory over the very highly regarded Zaidpour by more than five lengths. The step up in trip here might well suit, and he looks very solid, with the only question mark being whether or not he will cope well with the potentially better going than he's experienced so far in Ireland.

Zaidpour
Very highly touted in Ireland, but now perhaps with something to prove to justify the hype. Won the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novices Hurdle, before finding Oscars Well superior in the Deloitte. Also beaten by First Lieutenant (getting 3 lbs) in the previous race. I expect him to take up his engagement in the Supreme Novices Hurdle rather than running here, and should he run here, would be hard pressed to turn the tables on Oscars Well.

Conclusion

My idea of the winner if Oscars Well, and I think he might just have a little bit more class / quality than Bobs Worth when push comes to shove. I expect the finish to be fought out by these two. Rock On Ruby might run into a place.

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Junior (e/w); also shortlisted Skippers Brig / Billie Magern

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w) & Quozak (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase -

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter -

17:15 Champion Bumper -

Tuesday March 15 2011   
Cheltenham 14:40   
Stewart Family Spinal Research Handicap Chase (Grade 3)   
£75000.00 added, 5yo plus, 3m 110y, Class 1   
37 runners 
   
Update


My original shortlist consisted of:

1/313-011Skippers Brig (IRE)
113502    Billie Magern
3131/3-2Junior

However, both Bille Magern and Junior do not appear amongst the latest selections, so that would leave Skippers Brig as the selection.

Furthermore, after looking at the separate thread for this race, I noticed I'd erroneously eliminated Adams Island at the final stage on account of him not having won a class 3 chase (an error on my behalf, as he has won a class 3 chase).

My final revised selections then for this would be:

Skippers Brig (e/w) & Adams Island (e/w)

TUE 15 MAR 2011
Centenary Novices´ Handicap Chase (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-140)
2m4f110y Number of runners: 51

Update:

After the latest declaration stage, one of my selections, Quozak, has been withdrawn, which just leaves the one selection of The Knoxs (e/w).

WED 16 MAR 2011
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo)
2m110y Number of runners: 52

222    Molotof18
3412    Sailors Warn32
132234    Fearless Falcon21
3217    Tillahow32
F1235    Indian Daudaie32
72F1    A Media Luz34
1110    Architrave123
41236    Accidental Outlaw21
133    Kumbeshwar18
11213    Celtus18
661    Domination27
P71    Whitby Jack38
231    Plan A47
1522    Titan De Sarti56
315    Mark Twain46
1152    Pantxoa34
511255    Pullyourfingerout18
7313    Apache Drums48
421158    Vosges11
258    Kalann32
162    The Starboard Bow38
99225    Luddenmore25
345    Silver Shuffle21
51234    Akula46
11022U    Meetings Man38
1133    Tenor Nivernais43
237232    Two Kisses12
66432    Professeur Emery39
139    Kazzene18
261    Paintball21
1124    Beyond172
062P13    Harry Hunt21
165    Comedy Act21
3144    Jubail21
941    Kayef26
22217    Mr Muddle18
52512    Dhaafer19
371331    Pepite Rose19
5206    Total Reality47
3442F    Qalinas10
6732    Looks Like Slim21
738878    Peccatorum21
8444    L´Eminence Grise25
233113    Lady Willa31
757    What A Charm21
335    Rock Of Deauville21
7327    Kingdom Of Munster18
U2643    Tom Wade14
783    New Destination41
11    First Fandango72
35    Not In The Clock21
21    Tigre D´Aron51

This is actually quite an easy race to get down to a manageable shortlist, based on the statistical trends. The first task is to eliminate horses who failed to win last time out, on the basis that 5 of the last 6 winners achieved this distinction. That cuts out a large portion of the field:

72F1    A Media Luz34
661    Domination27
P71    Whitby Jack38
231    Plan A47
261    Paintball21
941    Kayef26
371331    Pepite Rose19
11    First Fandango72
21    Tigre D´Aron51


The next step is to rule out horses that have an official rating (OR) of less than 124, as all 6 winners of this race have been rated 124 or higher.

72F1    A Media Luz34
661    Domination27
P71    Whitby Jack38
231    Plan A47
11    First Fandango72
21    Tigre D´Aron51

Quite an interesting statistic next, and that is that all 6 winners of the race had failed to win their first two starts over hurdles, which again points to a horse that hasn't done too much too early, and been clobbered by the handicapper. Applying this rule leaves us with a shortlist of four, namely:

72F1    A Media Luz34
661    Domination27
P71    Whitby Jack38
231    Plan A47

Of the above two my preference would be for Plan A, who won his last race nicely in Ireland and also I was quite impressed with the way Domination went about hsi work to win last time out in Ireland too. Whitby Jack was beaten a very long way by Grandouet earlier in the season which puts me off slightly, and my suspicion is that A Media Luz could be Triumph Hurdle bound.

Selections: Plan A and Domination (e/w)

I had a decent interest in Paintball, ticks all the right boxes though he was 33s last Friday and the best I could find today was 14s !
Was rated 80 on the flat (good enough for Triumph tilt) and does have an OR of 123 over timber so the 124 rating trends (from just 6 races) is only a single point away.
I've enjoyed these previews Joci, you've clearly put in a great deal of time, great work !

That's a fair point re Paintball - just falls under the radar. Just think this Plan A could be a real gamble - Gordon Elliott seemed really keen on its chances.

Echo horse9 comments.....thoughtful and time consuming,now the decs are coming must all seem downhill from here Joci???

An oasis in a desert of blinkered form regurgitation............

Your efforts deserve the best of luck.

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase -

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper -

ok day three.

golden miller

ok this is a bit of a no-brainer, wishful thinking has impressed me greatly over fences. he looks bomb proof to me. loosen my load is a very good leaper. he'll follow him home.

selection: wishful thinking.

ryanair

tranquil sea has been one of the most consistent and best chasers over the last two seasons and currently looks excellent value. ok he didn't run very well in this same race last year but he had previous winning form over the course and distance so that wouldn't greatly bother me. jyvole is also interesting.

selection: tranquil sea.

world hurdle

for me this represents one of the best opportunities of the whole meeting in one of the biggest improvers of the whole year, grands crus.

big bucks has never impressed me that much to be honest. I know this is a contreversial comment given what he has achieved but he's just never got my blood going. I think this year he's finally got some pretty serious opposition and i'm very confident the pipe horse can take him out. I see grands crus travelling that bit better, big bucks ultimately giving him a bit too much rope and that proving decisive.

Selection: GRANDS CRUS

Doesn't the fact that GC top form is on soft and seems to pull hard in its races early on
BB is a massive price at 5/4 and is by far the value

WED 16 MAR 2011   
Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4-6yo)   
Good To Soft 2m110y Number of runners: 40   
   
The Champion Bumper is the flat race for National Hunt horses, and one race that in the past has been a 'get out' race where I've managed to find a winner when under the cosh from the bookies! Let's see if I can do it again. A field of 40 currently stand their ground:    
   

83    All For Cash27
1    Allure Of Illusion209
2321    Aupcharlie10
2-6421    Broadbackbob62
12    Bygones In Brid26
21    Cheltenian33
11d1    Dark Glacier20
311    Destroyer Deployed17
1-    Divine Rhapsody330
12-1    Double Double290
1-02    Dynamic Approach150
211    Ericht26
21    Felix Yonger49
2-    Go All The Way328
3    Grab The Glory18
11    Knight Pass70
31    Knockalongi63
1    Lord Gale31
2-1    Master Murphy124
25    Maytide233
2141    Mount Benbulben20
2    Noble Perk67
F-13    Persian Snow25
0-11    Raise The Beat150
1-52    Rocks Rule18
5-1211    Saint Luke40
P6P-11    Solaise95
21-251    Star Neuville78
811    The Tracey Shuffle18
1    Triptico42
21    Tusa Eire46
1    Twentyfourcarat116
64    Way To Finish49
35    Awaywiththegreys11
112    Cinders And Ashes74
15    Cousin Khee74
2    Crystal Swing66
1    Oscar Magic18
301    What A Warrior32
26    Willow The Rose10

This is a race to definitely concentrate on horses who won last time out, and I'm prepared to reject those who didn't.

1    Allure Of Illusion209
2321    Aupcharlie10
2-6421    Broadbackbob62
21    Cheltenian33
11d1    Dark Glacier20
311    Destroyer Deployed17
1-    Divine Rhapsody330
12-1    Double Double290
211    Ericht26
21    Felix Yonger49
11    Knight Pass70
31    Knockalongi63
1    Lord Gale31
2-1    Master Murphy124
2141    Mount Benbulben20
0-11    Raise The Beat150
5-1211    Saint Luke40
P6P-11    Solaise95
21-251    Star Neuville78
811    The Tracey Shuffle18
1    Triptico42
21    Tusa Eire46
1    Twentyfourcarat116
1    Oscar Magic18
301    What A Warrior32


I'd even take that a stage further and eliminate those horses who have failed to finish either 1st or 2nd in all of their bumper races:

1    Allure Of Illusion209
21    Cheltenian33
11d1    Dark Glacier20
311    Destroyer Deployed17
1-    Divine Rhapsody330
12-1    Double Double290
211    Ericht26
21    Felix Yonger49
11    Knight Pass70
1    Lord Gale31
2-1    Master Murphy124
5-1211    Saint Luke40
P6P-11    Solaise95
1    Triptico42
21    Tusa Eire46
1    Twentyfourcarat116
1    Oscar Magic18

Now, we should prefer horses who have shown winning form in a relatively large field, which mimics the conditions they are likely to face on the day. As all of the last 10 winners had won a bumper containing 13+ horses, this is taken as the bottom limit:

21    Cheltenian33
11d1    Dark Glacier20
1-    Divine Rhapsody330
211    Ericht26
11    Knight Pass70
2-1    Master Murphy124
P6P-11    Solaise95
1    Triptico42
21    Tusa Eire46
1    Oscar Magic18

I'm happy to eliminate Divine Rhapsody on account of him not having run for 330 days, as this does not fit the profile of most winners.

21    Cheltenian33
11d1    Dark Glacier20
211    Ericht26
11    Knight Pass70
2-1    Master Murphy124
P6P-11    Solaise95
1    Triptico42
21    Tusa Eire46
1    Oscar Magic18

For the above shortlist, I've watched as many of the races as I can within time constraints. I've also looked at the post race comments, mainly to form a view of how well / easily the horse has done the job. The most impressive animal I've seen is Knight Pass. He's won both of his races with authority. The thing that clinched it for me is that on his first race, he slammed Sire De Grugy by 8 lengths, and Sire De Grugy has really gone from strength to strength, culminating in an impressive win in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle. On that basis, he'll do for me.

Selection: Knight Pass

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase -

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase -

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass


Skippers Brig won't be running, so just down to Adams Island in that race.

Great stuff JC. Personally I think you've dismissed Divine Rhapsodys chance in the Bumper a little too easy based on 3 reasons

1. How many horses actually run the Bumper with no previous run that season ?  This could be a very small %

2. He won a 50k hurdle first time out so it obviously doesn't affect the horse, in fact he may prove to be that kind of horse who needs to run fresh.

3. He meets other 'lesser' trends

a/ 8/10 were bred in Ireland
b/ 8/10 were trained in Ireland (and fourteen of all the eighteen winners of this race!)
c/ 7/10 won a bumper worth at least 4k (pounds or euros) to the winner

Good trends and good form in beating a number of subsequent winners in that race IMO.

Shrews - I do agree about Divine Rhapsody and have been considering having a bit on each way, as the form of his run seems to have worked out very well. I just fear he may be a bit ring rusty for a race of this standard, and the likely frenetic pace. Would be a very good training achievement for sure.

WED 16 MAR 2011
sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
2m Number of runners: 11

One of my favorite races of the festival, and some greta memories of former winners, Viking Flagship, Moscow Flyer, One Man etc. This year, it's quite easy for me from a trends perspective:

11-112    Big Zeb45
181-14    Captain Cee Bee77
16417    Cornas26
121-91    French Opera26
212111    Golden Silver24
821-46    I´m So Lucky53
41-463    Mad Max53
14-111    Master Minded53
13-223    Sizing Europe45
22-332    Somersby53
101-11    Woolcombe Folly95


For the first elimination stage, I'm getting rid of horses that failed to win  agraded race last time out, and this whittles down the field considerably:

121-91    French Opera26
212111    Golden Silver24
14-111    Master Minded53

I#m actually not too concerned about throwing out Big Zeb at this stage, as I've not really been that enthused abou any of his runs this season, even though he did win very well last season.

Of the above shortlist of three, I have strong preference for Master Minded, whose wins at Ascot and Cheltenham earlier in the season confirmed his well being, and I don't think he would have been cherry ripe in the mud at Ascot last time. He's very much the class horse of the field, is a good jumper, and should win if close to his best.

Golden Silver is a horse I really like, and he's had the better of Big Zeb recently. However, he does seem to have a preference for soft ground, and has disappointed a Cheltenham in the past. Can picture him staying on into a place, but perhaps not troubling Master Minded. French Opera is another admiorable type who has run some good races from high in the handicap, and deserves his chance here. He's going to need further improvement to reach the very top level (could well be capable of this), but again, place claims may be the best he's capable of.

Selection: Master Minded

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

That's the first two days covered - now on to Thursday and Friday later today!

Excellent stuff,puts most pro racing journalists to shame(unless of course you are one).Best of luck with selections.Will keep thread in mind next week.

Joci - I reckon you're just getting lazy

Race of the week for me, could be 4 in a line, I've heard solid reports about Capatin Cee Bee and he won't mind the quickers ground, remember also this horse is a trend buster becasue he's so fragile.

THU 17 MAR 2011   
Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+)   
Good 3m Number of runners: 69

P4721    Knockara Beau36
114276    Working Title33
3-0445    Duke Of Lucca75
P-614P    Mobaasher26
94F-24    Micheal Flips61
71-8F6    Sir Harry Ormesher124
24470    Pause And Clause40
256483    Kayf Aramis26
11-910    Lush Life40
45-321    Dynaste77
10-221    Barafundle111
37365    Barizan40
182532    Son Of Flicka116
6-FF40    Gwanako47
72043    Le Beau Bai26
5-9150    Essex46
163216    Mr Moonshine26
11/312    Tarablaze27
728700    Buena Vista61
5-5220    Barwell Bridge61
45-422    Alfie Spinner40
123441    Battle Group19
P6230    Viking Blond75
222321    Rivage D´Or25
1-1334    45 Sivota67
4-2242    44 Son Amix67
11200    43 Sweet Shock25
P1-P07    42 Don´t Push It27
594008    41 Hills Of Aran27
610203    40 Queiros Bleu25
35/492    39 Heavenly Blues29
119-3    38 Chartreux75
115B02    37 Ackertac22
PU6372    36 Heathcliff36
012-10    35 Riptide123
12-831    34 Shoegazer40
2F-91F    33 Superior Wisdom97
460/6-    32 Liberate639F
1305-3    31 Hollins28
6/5P-9    30 Merrydown26
77-23    29 Fiulin138
F-03F5    28 Khachaturian26
5F430    27 Sangfroid27
F-4443    26 Busker Royal26
131P/7    25 Lightning Strike26
2-9650    24 Quickbeam22
21618    23 Mister Hyde40
341113    22 Bellflower Boy12
719017    21 Thelobstercatcher36
872553    20 Dantari40
P91271    19 Stow27
1-6U55    18 Prince Rudi46
36P51    17 Wolf Moon17
81113    16 Salpierre50
6505    15 Chief Yeoman40
P0-UPU    14 Halla San13
25976    13 Racing Demon26
31-7F5    12 Benbane Head12
21P04    11 Simarian28
426F-9    10 Larks Lad27
47943    9 South O´The Border15
21720    8 Silver Accord49
4U2406    7 Miss Overdrive27
0/42-P    6 Aimigayle40
2961P5    5 Phare Isle22
1-00P6    4 Puzzlemaster6
6F7/69    3 Counting House112
643-P    2 Georgian King19
PPP958    1 Tisfreetdream21

Firstly, I should say that I have not the slightest idea of which horses are actualy seriously targetting this race at this stage, so my final shortlist might seem a bit strange to anyone who has a bit more insight into this race.

A nice way of reducing down this mammoth field to a more manageable number is to only consider horses with an official rating in the 129-142 range, as horses in this range have won 7 of the last 10 from approximately 60% of the total runners & they have filled all 12 places in the past 3 years.

24470    Pause And Clause40
256483    Kayf Aramis26
11-910    Lush Life40
45-321    Dynaste77
10-221    Barafundle111
37365    Barizan40
182532    Son Of Flicka116
6-FF40    Gwanako47
72043    Le Beau Bai26
5-9150    Essex46
163216    Mr Moonshine26
11/312    Tarablaze27
728700    Buena Vista61
5-5220    Barwell Bridge61
45-422    Alfie Spinner40
123441    Battle Group19
P6230    Viking Blond75
222321    Rivage D´Or25
1-1334    45 Sivota67
4-2242    44 Son Amix67
11200    43 Sweet Shock25
P1-P07    42 Don´t Push It27
594008    41 Hills Of Aran27
610203    40 Queiros Bleu25
35/492    39 Heavenly Blues29
119-3    38 Chartreux75
115B02    37 Ackertac22
PU6372    36 Heathcliff36
012-10    35 Riptide123
12-831    34 Shoegazer40
2F-91F    33 Superior Wisdom97
460/6-    32 Liberate639F
1305-3    31 Hollins28
6/5P-9    30 Merrydown26
77-23    29 Fiulin138
F-03F5    28 Khachaturian26
5F430    27 Sangfroid27
F-4443    26 Busker Royal26
131P/7    25 Lightning Strike26
2-9650    24 Quickbeam22


Age is another useful indicator of the chances of winning, as horses aged 5 don't win this race and neither do horses aged 10+, and they can be comfortably eliminated on that basis.

24470    Pause And Clause40
256483    Kayf Aramis26
11-910    Lush Life40
10-221    Barafundle111
182532    Son Of Flicka116
6-FF40    Gwanako47
72043    Le Beau Bai26
163216    Mr Moonshine26
11/312    Tarablaze27
45-422    Alfie Spinner40
123441    Battle Group19
P6230    Viking Blond75
222321    Rivage D´Or25
1-1334    45 Sivota67
11200    43 Sweet Shock25
594008    41 Hills Of Aran27
610203    40 Queiros Bleu25
35/492    39 Heavenly Blues29
119-3    38 Chartreux75
115B02    37 Ackertac22
PU6372    36 Heathcliff36
12-831    34 Shoegazer40
460/6-    32 Liberate639F
1305-3    31 Hollins28
6/5P-9    30 Merrydown26
77-23    29 Fiulin138
F-03F5    28 Khachaturian26
5F430    27 Sangfroid27
F-4443    26 Busker Royal26
131P/7    25 Lightning Strike26
2-9650    24 Quickbeam22

I'm a strong follower of horses who have won last time out, and they tend to have good records in Festival handicaps. I would eliminate horses who didn't win last time out, but I'm being generous and will extend this to horses who finished in the first 2 last time out, so everything finishing outside the top two gets the heave-ho!

10-221    Barafundle111
182532    Son Of Flicka116
11/312    Tarablaze27
45-422    Alfie Spinner40
123441    Battle Group19
222321    Rivage D´Or25
35/492    39 Heavenly Blues29
115B02    37 Ackertac22
PU6372    36 Heathcliff36
12-831    34 Shoegazer40

I'm now looking at a number of other trend related issues (7 to be precise), and have decided to eliminate horses who had more than one negative (i.e. failed on 2 or more of the trends). These trends are:

1 the last run for the horse should ideally have been within the last 50 days (10/10)
2 the horse would ideally have won last time out (5/10)
3 would have had 3-7 runs over hurdles this season (7/10)
4 would have won between 2 and 5 hurdle races in total
5 would have won fewer than 4 handicvap hurdles (9/10)
6 would have won a class 3 hurdle or better (9/10)
7 would have won over at least 3 miles (7/10)

The horses failing at least 2 of the above trends were:

Son Of Flicka (1, 2 & 7)
Alfie Spinner (2 & 7)
Battle Group (3 & 7)
Rivage D'Or (4 & 6)
Heavenly Blues (2, 6 & 7)
Ackertac (2, 6 & 7)


This leaves the following shortlist:

10-221    Barafundle111
11/312    Tarablaze27
PU6372    36 Heathcliff36
12-831    34 Shoegazer40

Of these, despite the lack of recent run (probably trying to protect his mark), I like the claims of Barafundle. Finished a decent second to the exciting Grands Crus first time out this season, and followed that up with a nice win at Newbury. It would be no surprise to see him run a big race, and he's an each way selection.

The only horse to tick all 7 of the above trend boxes was the David Pipe trained Shoegazer, and on that basis, he's also an each way selection, currently at a decent price on here. I notice he has a couple of other entries next week, so have no real idea if he's an intended runner.

I might have a look at Tarablaze should either of my selections not make the line up. I'm happy to rule out Heathcliff, as the horse hasn't managed to get his nose in front in his last nine races.

Selections: Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

Good analysis, but I think you may have dismissed Rivage D'ors chances a little to easily based on

4 would have won between 2 and 5 hurdle races in total
6 would have won a class 3 hurdle or better (9/10)

Number 4 is fair enough (although his places are second to none if we ignore trends). But on Number 6 I feel that his win of a 9k race in Ireland would be equivalent (in prize money at least) to a Class 3 in GB.


Still good selections though.

Thanks - I actually quite like him and might give him further consideration as I think Shoegazer might be heading for the Martin Pipe Hurdle in preference to this.

THU 17 MAR 2011   
Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)   
2m5f Number of runners: 16

11-4FP    Albertas Run61
1F/237    Breedsbreeze26
181-14    Captain Cee Bee78
1/1552    Gauvain26
212111    Golden Silver25
1F814    Hey Big Spender19
4-3754    Kalahari King54
2U-251    Poquelin96
3P-381    Rare Bob67
B-2322    Roberto Goldback26
11721    Rubi Light26
22-332    Somersby54
4-3115    Tartak26
196-11    Tranquil Sea92
36455-    Voy Por Ustedes337
3U-263    J´y Vole49
   
My first port of call in the Ryanair is to eliminate horses who failed to finish in the first 3 last time out, which cuts the filed down by almost half.

1/1552    Gauvain26
212111    Golden Silver25
2U-251    Poquelin96
3P-381    Rare Bob67
B-2322    Roberto Goldback26
11721    Rubi Light26
22-332    Somersby54
196-11    Tranquil Sea92
3U-263    J´y Vole49

The race is normally won by a horse with an OR of at least 152, which just rules out Rare Bob.

1/1552    Gauvain26
212111    Golden Silver25
2U-251    Poquelin96
B-2322    Roberto Goldback26
11721    Rubi Light26
22-332    Somersby54
196-11    Tranquil Sea92
3U-263    J´y Vole49

Very strong preference for horses that have shown winning form at the course. This rules out a significant proportion of the remaining runners.

1/1552    Gauvain26
2U-251    Poquelin96
196-11    Tranquil Sea92

Consider only those hoprses who have won a grade drace at Cheltenham in the past. This rules out Gauvain.

This leaves only two horses, Poquelin and Tranquil Sea. The latter has recently been declared a non runner, so by default that leaves Poquelin as a strong selection for this race. He has an excellent record at the track, put out something like a career best performance last time out when winning the Vote AP Gold Cup off top weight, and is hard to oppose if at his best on the day.

Selection : Poquelin

Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
3m Number of runners: 14

0-214224  Any Given Day (IRE)
11-4051      Ashkazar (FR)
341-4456  Berties Dream (IRE)
1111-11      Big Buck's (FR)
4F-F33321 Celestial Halo (IRE)
46-61B21  Cross Kennon (IRE)
13212/1-1 Fiveforthree (IRE)
0212-111  Grands Crus (FR)
1213-411  Mourad (IRE)
30-10025  Powerstation (IRE)
F1-33033  Restless Harry
1-146132  Rigour Back Bob (IRE)
P04122-      Souffleur
1233-44      Zaynar (FR)

I'll kick off by eliminating any horse that hasn't finished either 1st or 2nd in all its hurdles races this season. This reduces the field to three:

1111-11      Big Buck's (FR)
13212/1-1 Fiveforthree (IRE)
0212-111  Grands Crus (FR)

Big Buck's is the master of the staying hurdle division, and has proven untouchable since reverting to the smaller obstacles after tipping up in the Hennessy. He used to hit what some label a 'flat spot' in his races, but towards the end of last season, and this season seems to have put that trait away. He's laughed at most of the opposition he's faced, and as a result, we don't really know how good he is, as he doesn't usually do more than he needs to to win his races.

He appears to have a stern challenger thios time round with the emergence of the David Pipe trained Grands Crus, who visually put up a huge performance last time out, and also looks to have a great deal of ability. There's a question mark as to whether he might handle the likely better going he's likely to face on Thursday, and he's not won a Grade 1 hurdle which is usually one of the pre-requisites here.

I like Fiveforthree, and think he could have achieved a great deal were it not for his injuries, and I think it would be a tremendous achievement to get him running into a place here, but I think he might be just capable of doing that. However, Big Buck's sets the standard, and I'm happy to see him remain undefeated over hurdles. The emergence of Grands Crus, and a couple of other credible challengers makes it more interesting, but in my mind, it just makes Big Buck's a decent backable price for the first time in quite a while.

Selection: Big Buck's

THU 17 MAR 2011   
Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4   
2m5f Number of runners: 39   
   
   
   
FORM    HORSE
1F814    Hey Big Spender19
3P-381    Rare Bob67
P-2P74    Chaninbar117
36317    Tatenen19
30-27P    Free World19
37-406    Consigliere68
211P-8    Copper Bleu26
2F2-52    Bensalem26
0-1P22    Cape Tribulation25
23P/15    Crescent Island19
8-1853    Edgbriar40
138-02    Nomecheki40
U211F    Songe61
U22415    Hollo Ladies40
57-711    Quantitativeeasing37
P-234P    Piraya19
5460-1    Aigle D´Or111
2U121    Tharawaat19
1PP-45    You´re The Top138
196611    Quartz De Thaix10 5x
F-1206    Matuhi12
10-F81    Gansey19
61-419    Call Me A Legend40
31163    Sway57
31591    15 Divers39
40UP11    14 Peplum36
F6232P    13 Safari Adventures19
4136U    12 Just Smudge14
0/42-P    11 Aimigayle40
57149    10 Plein Pouvoir12
11/191    9 Beautiful Sound60
2-1786    8 Storymaker31
674372    7 Bible Lord36
111224    6 I´m A Legend26
45152F    5 Holmwood Legend26
P0-P6    4 Qrackers36
4-8305    3 Tramantano96
31-302    2 Askmeroe19
1-6144    1 Roi De Rose19

Weight is usually a significant factor in this race, and there's a preferred range of Official Ratings to concentrate on. Few horses win this race with a rating greater than 141, and at the other end of the scale, few win with a rating of < 132, so concentrating on horses within this group eliminates a sizeable portion of the current field:

23P/15    Crescent Island19
8-1853    Edgbriar40    
138-02    Nomecheki40    
U211F    Songe61    
U22415    Hollo Ladies40    
57-711    Quantitativeeasing37    
P-234P    Piraya19    
5460-1    Aigle D´Or111    
2U121    Tharawaat19    
1PP-45    You´re The Top138    
196611    Quartz De Thaix10 5x    
F-1206    Matuhi12    
10-F81    Gansey19    
61-419    Call Me A Legend40    

Horses finishing outside of the top 5 in the previous race do not have a great record, and can be eliminated.

23P/15    Crescent Island19
8-1853    Edgbriar40
138-02    Nomecheki40
U211F    Songe61
U22415    Hollo Ladies40
57-711    Quantitativeeasing37
5460-1    Aigle D´Or111
2U121    Tharawaat19
1PP-45    You´re The Top138
196611    Quartz De Thaix10 5x
10-F81    Gansey19


Time to look at the other trends, and apply positives and negatives to each horse to come up with a final shortlist. The key trends to consider are:

1  the last run should have been in the last 45 days
2  the horse should have run 2-6 times this season
3  the horse should have run in 3-15 chases
4  the horses should have won 1-4 chases
5  the horse should have had fewer than 10 handicap chase runs
6  the horse should have won fewer than 3 handicap chases
7  the horse should have won fewer than 2 handicap chases in current season
8  should have won over 2m 3f+
9  should have won a class 3 race or better
10 look for horses who finished in first 4 in a graded chase
11 favour horses who have had previous experience of the track
12 130+ rated hurdlers fare best

Dismiss horses who fail to comply with at least 10 of the above twelve trend points. This narrows the field down to 6 runners:

23P/15    Crescent Island19
8-1853    Edgbriar40
57-711    Quantitativeeasing37
2U121    Tharawaat19
196611    Quartz De Thaix10 5x
10-F81    Gansey19

Of this shortlist, only Crescent Island satisfied 12/12 of the conditions. However, he fails on another trend which illustrates that 17 out of 19 of the last winners had all finished in the top four last time out. Admittedly, Crescent Island's 5th was in a keenly contested Racing Post Chase at Kmepton, but he was well beaten that day. Eliminated, but not without a little reluctance.

Next to suffer the indignity of being dumped is Gansey - if I've just eliminated Crescent Island, then I can't have Gansey, who was in a different parish behind Crescent Island at Wetherby (before scrambling home last time out). Don't think this is sufficient to win here. I'm also prepared to overlook Edgbriar on account of not being too impressed with his last run at Sandown, where he was actually beaten by a potential rival here, Nomecheki.

So the final shortlist comsists of:

57-711    Quantitativeeasing37
2U121    Tharawaat19
196611    Quartz De Thaix10 5x

My preference is for Quartz De Thaix, who has won his last two races, the last tone by 18 lengths, and is trained by Venetia Williams who has a decent record in this race, and is also a course winner. I respect the chances of the novice Quantitativeeasing, and I think he's worth an each way shout. Also, the Gordon Elliott trained Tharawaat might not be without a chance at a big price, and would make up the finsl psrt of my trio of horses to attack this race. Hopefully we might get at least one runner out of those three.

Selections: Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson -

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir -


Early start today, to enable plenty of form study!

THU 17 MAR 2011   
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders) (CLASS 2) (5yo+ 0-140)   
3m1f110y Number of runners: 62   
   
   
FORM    HORSE
6F-8P5    Can´t Buy Time75
57-711    Quantitativeeasing37
312-73    Sunnyhillboy96
506426    The Sawyer12
2U513    Far More Serious12
113502    Billie Magern26
472P-0    Faasel97
43-92P    Richard´s Sundance61
252513    Swing Bill12
1U8-66    Saddlers Storm18
2-82P5    Dance Island27
83F21F    Mostly Bob19
P-3438    Deal Done18
2613-P    Galant Nuit96
1-2P10    Den Of Iniquity75
131-32    Junior75
5F1-PP    Gentle Ranger124
1-1321    Aberdale113
FPU16    Palypso De Creek26
426221    Alderley Rover34
F-03F5    Khachaturian26
432221    Arabella Boy22
7U217    Cornish Sett12
F4-536    Pomme Tiepy48
F45U11    38 Galaxy Rock16 5x
PP-197    37 Minella Theatre54
22221    36 Fredo42
126144    35 Sheriff Hutton40
12-342    34 Sound Stage112
UPP35    33 Burren Legend26
12-PP    32 The Sliotar32
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
PP2111    30 Massini Man27
3-3622    29 Cannington Brook33
P3F614    28 Carrickmines26
2-F42P    27 Minella Four Star12
7-584P    26 Ballyfoy19
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x
11/191    24 Beautiful Sound60
P09-0P    23 Horner Woods68
41P3P7    22 No Panic14
0/42-P    21 Aimigayle40
30F-PP    20 Mr Robert79
P415PU    19 Fit To Drive5
61-264    18 Briery Fox22
4-148P    17 Etxalar26
314-52    16 Soixante19
54642    15 Max Bygraves14
21P04    14 Simarian28
3-4F12    13 Frankie Anson48
U-1U55    12 Rustarix46
6505    11 Chief Yeoman40
21386    10 Regal Approach40
36P51    9 Wolf Moon17 5x
232544    8 Ballyvesey11
P-6334    7 Ma Yahab12
1-6144    6 Roi De Rose19
42754P    5 Noun De La Thinte27
656273    4 Zitenka34
PF7526    3 Leac An Scail6
16P206    2 Quattrocento23
525226    1 Camden George9

This is a bit of a minefield, with some big priced winners over the years. Let the power of trends whittle this field down until we find the winner.

Firstly, age is a good guide to this race, and 8 out of the last ten winners have been aged 8 or 9, so a good place to start is to eliminate horses younger than 8 and older than 9. This takes out a fair amount of horses.

6F-8P5    Can´t Buy Time75
312-73    Sunnyhillboy96
43-92P    Richard´s Sundance61
1U8-66    Saddlers Storm18
2-82P5    Dance Island27
83F21F    Mostly Bob19
131-32    Junior75
5F1-PP    Gentle Ranger124
FPU16    Palypso De Creek26
F-03F5    Khachaturian26
F4-536    Pomme Tiepy48
PP-197    37 Minella Theatre54
126144    35 Sheriff Hutton40
12-342    34 Sound Stage112
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
P3F614    28 Carrickmines26
2-F42P    27 Minella Four Star12
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x
11/191    24 Beautiful Sound60
P09-0P    23 Horner Woods68
41P3P7    22 No Panic14
0/42-P    21 Aimigayle40
P415PU    19 Fit To Drive5
4-148P    17 Etxalar26
314-52    16 Soixante19
54642    15 Max Bygraves14
21386    10 Regal Approach40
36P51    9 Wolf Moon17 5x
656273    4 Zitenka34


Eight out of the last ten winers have carried 10st 10lbs or more, so anything set to carry less than that is eliminated.

6F-8P5    Can´t Buy Time75
312-73    Sunnyhillboy96
43-92P    Richard´s Sundance61
1U8-66    Saddlers Storm18
2-82P5    Dance Island27
83F21F    Mostly Bob19
131-32    Junior75
5F1-PP    Gentle Ranger124
FPU16    Palypso De Creek26
F-03F5    Khachaturian26
F4-536    Pomme Tiepy48
PP-197    37 Minella Theatre54
126144    35 Sheriff Hutton40
12-342    34 Sound Stage112
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
P3F614    28 Carrickmines26
2-F42P    27 Minella Four Star12
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x
11/191    24 Beautiful Sound60
P09-0P    23 Horner Woods68
41P3P7    22 No Panic14
0/42-P    21 Aimigayle40
P415PU    19 Fit To Drive5
4-148P    17 Etxalar26

Winning form over three miles and beyond is the next indicator as 8 out of the last 10 winners had won over this trip or further. This only rules out two horses (Sunnyhillboy & Sound Stage).

6F-8P5    Can´t Buy Time75
43-92P    Richard´s Sundance61
1U8-66    Saddlers Storm18
2-82P5    Dance Island27
83F21F    Mostly Bob19
131-32    Junior75
5F1-PP    Gentle Ranger124
FPU16    Palypso De Creek26
F-03F5    Khachaturian26
F4-536    Pomme Tiepy48
PP-197    37 Minella Theatre54
126144    35 Sheriff Hutton40
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
P3F614    28 Carrickmines26
2-F42P    27 Minella Four Star12
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x
11/191    24 Beautiful Sound60
P09-0P    23 Horner Woods68
41P3P7    22 No Panic14
0/42-P    21 Aimigayle40
P415PU    19 Fit To Drive5
4-148P    17 Etxalar26

Carrickmines gets the chop next on account of having won more than 2 handicap chases. Furthermore, 10 out of the last 10 winners had had their final prep race in a class 3 or better chase over 3 miles +. This rules out the big talking horse Junior and Palypso de Creek, whose last runs were both over hurdles (see Postscript).

43-92P    Richard´s Sundance61
83F21F    Mostly Bob19
F4-536    Pomme Tiepy48
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
2-F42P    27 Minella Four Star12
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x
11/191    24 Beautiful Sound60
0/42-P    21 Aimigayle40

The current shortlist of 8 is further reduced by 2 by eliminating both Irish trained horses, Pomme Tiepy and Beautiful Sound. The Irish don't seem to know how to win this race. Perhaps they don't care!

43-92P    Richard´s Sundance61
83F21F    Mostly Bob19
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
2-F42P    27 Minella Four Star12
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x
0/42-P    21 Aimigayle40

Personally, I very rarely back any horse who was pulled up last time out, especially when their next race is at the Festival. So it's adios to Richard's Sunset, Minella Four Star & Aimigayle, leaving the final shortlist of:

83F21F    Mostly Bob19
F2-124    31 Teddy´s Reflection26
F3-P31    25 Isn´t That Lucky14 5x

The one I like most is Mostly Bob. Considered decent enough to contest the Racing Post Chase, where he fell early on, he seems to be quite a consistent type, and sandwiched between his two falls, he's managed a first and second placing, so despite being concerned about his jumping, a small each way bet is suggested. The other each way bet would be on Isn't That Lucky, who won last time out, and ran respectably in this race last year, before falling three out. Not sure he'll get a run though. I'm not overly confident in this race, so just small stakes.

Selections: Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w)

Postscript: Junior is the horse I was looking to back in this race. He was eliminated on account of not having his prep in a chase over 3 miles plus. However, he seems like a plot horse for this, having his last run over hurdles (a good second behind Ashkazar) and then having been put away to preserve his handicap mark. There's a good chance this will be a win bet of mine on the day.

FRI 18 MAR 2011   
JCB Triumph Hurdle Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo)   
2m1f Number of runners: 28   
   

NO.    HORSE
46    Aikideau20
1110    Architrave125
31    Brampour36
11    First Fandango74
1-5211    Grandouet55
9B2221    Houblon Des Obeaux27
941    Kayef28
2722    Kuilsriver40
133    Kumbeshwar20
1114    Local Hero27
3111    Marsh Warbler69
14    Mister Carter69
222    Molotof20
7    New Den16
231    Plan A49
3412    Sailors Warn34
2-2114    Sam Winner69
4U3    Sir Pitt25
62131    Smad Place27
122    Third Intention27
3217    Tillahow34
11F    Trop Fort36
0    Walter De La Mare27
1    Zarkandar20
72F1    A Media Luz36
21    High Ransom37
P    Truly Magic25F
11    Unaccompanied34


For this race, I'm happy to eliminate all horses who failed to win last time out, as winning form in the final prep normally provides a winner of this race (15 out of last 17 winners). This eliminates a substantial portion of the field:

31    Brampour36
11    First Fandango74
1-5211    Grandouet55
9B2221    Houblon Des Obeaux27
941    Kayef28
3111    Marsh Warbler69
231    Plan A49
62131    Smad Place27
1    Zarkandar20
72F1    A Media Luz36
21    High Ransom37
11    Unaccompanied34


Of the remaining horses, I'd be looking to oppose any horse that hasn't won at least a class 3 race over hurdles, as it could well require too much of a jump in class to win a race of this nature.

1-5211    Grandouet55
9B2221    Houblon Des Obeaux27
3111    Marsh Warbler69
62131    Smad Place27
1    Zarkandar20
72F1    A Media Luz36
11    Unaccompanied34

A Media Luz gets the chop for not having an official rating high enough to take this race.

1-5211    Grandouet55
9B2221    Houblon Des Obeaux27
3111    Marsh Warbler69
62131    Smad Place27
1    Zarkandar20
11    Unaccompanied34

I can whittle the field down further by eliminating any horse who has failed to win at least half of its races over hurdles, and this stat accounts for the likes of Grandouet, Houblon Des Obeaux and Smad Place.

3111    Marsh Warbler69
1    Zarkandar20
11    Unaccompanied34

The final shortlist of three becomes two, as Zarkandar is (perhaps reluctantly) eliminated on account of only having a single hurdles race to his name (albeit an impressive winning one). Fifteen of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles, and this might well suggest that a reasonable amount of experience is required to handle the almost unique conditions that this race throws at these young horses.

I like Unaccompanied, winner of both her two hurdle starts to date, she won well last time out at Leopardstown, and has a very handly 7lbs allowance over the boys! Can see this one running a big race. I also like Marsh Warbler. There was a lot to like about his win at Chepstow last time out, where he showed a great attitude to win, beating the likes of Sam Winner and Smad Place. Maybe he's slightly underated, perhaps as he hails from one of the 'unfashionable' stables. I think I could get a big run for my money, and he's an each way selection to accompany the win bet on Unaccompanied.

Selections: Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

KNIGHT PASS & MASTERMINDED agree JOCI, great work keep it going very good read

blimey joci you do like your favourites!

I must admit don't like poquelin at all. think he's just an overrated animal full stop. although looking at the race nothing really stands out.

agree re master minded- he's the class act of the race. not really a big zeb fan even though he helped me out last year.

FRI 18 MAR 2011
Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)
2m1f Number of runners: 77

I'm taking a different approach to this race, as having been through the trends, the horses I came up with were a pretty unispiring bunch and I couldn't persuad emyself to want to back any of them. So, for this race, I'm keeping things simnple and looking towards the Totesport Trophy, MCR Hurdle and the Imperial Cup for the winner, and my three against the field are:

Selections: Final Approach, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w), though I note Bothy is trading at 120 on here currently, which suggests he's not going to be running.

FRI 18 MAR 2011   
Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle Race) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)CH4   
3m Number of runners: 47   

   
FORM    HORSE
115B02    Ackertac23
1F211    Aikman22
0-2231    25 Allee Garde44
41-134    14 Aughaloor26
F-211    Back In Focus27
1-1821    9 Badgers Cove67
0/2735    3 Be My Deputy32
21-111    Bobs Worth48
241    13 Cantlow23
1219    Champion Court48
2-1212    Court In Motion27
5-3216    Dynaste6
77-230    24 Fiulin6
1-67    2 Forlovenormoney14
43-124    For Non Stop79
51134    Fully Funded54
66-111    Gagewell Flyer47
22221    17 Gift Of Dgab21
4-1133    Habbie Simpson48
1-141    Highland Valley33
361161    Jetnova27
21-321    Join Together42
11151    Kilcrea Kim41
46-F1    27 Lios A Choill33
3-11    20 Moonlight Drive41
F-1115    Mossley62
7-1136    Mount Helicon93
11F423    16 Neptune Equester27
3812    21 No Secrets55
33326    10 Ohio Gold48
2F111    22 Our Island28
610203    Queiros Bleu26
B6F121    26 Radetsky March34
34-771    12 Raptor47
325-16    19 Rif97
14285    18 Rose Of The Moon27
23122P    Start Me Up43
3-4222    8 Super Villan42
32    11 Swingkeel23
1322    23 Sybarite62
42132    Teaforthree29
154983    5 Total Submission18
1-1021    7 Westmeath19
2-3321    6 Yes Tom34
4-122    15 Yurok20
0-30PP    1 Destined For Fame6
4U2406    4 Miss Overdrive28

This is a very very tough race to win, and you need a very tough resolute horse to carry you to victory. It's not often that the classiest horse wins this race, but one whose bottomless stamina gets him to the front up that hill. With this in mind, here's how I've approached this race.

Firstly, I've eliminated horses that finished outside of the first two last time out, as a measure of current form. This cuts out a significant number of runners.

115B02    Ackertac23
1F211    Aikman22
0-2231    25 Allee Garde44
F-211    Back In Focus27
1-1821    9 Badgers Cove67
21-111    Bobs Worth48
241    13 Cantlow23
2-1212    Court In Motion27
66-111    Gagewell Flyer47
22221    17 Gift Of Dgab21
1-141    Highland Valley33
361161    Jetnova27
21-321    Join Together42
11151    Kilcrea Kim41
46-F1    27 Lios A Choill33
3-11    20 Moonlight Drive41
3812    21 No Secrets55
2F111    22 Our Island28
B6F121    26 Radetsky March34
34-771    12 Raptor47
3-4222    8 Super Villan42
32    11 Swingkeel23
1322    23 Sybarite62
42132    Teaforthree29
1-1021    7 Westmeath19
2-3321    6 Yes Tom34
4-122    15 Yurok20

I'm prepared to overlook Radetsky March on account of age (horses 7 and younger are preferred). In addition, I'm only looking at horses who have shown sufficient stamina to already have won over 3 miles+, and this whittles the field down considerably again.

F-211    Back In Focus27
1-1821    9 Badgers Cove67
241    13 Cantlow23
21-321    Join Together42
2F111    22 Our Island28
42132    Teaforthree29
2-3321    6 Yes Tom34

If you now apply the class angle and consider onl those remaining horses who have won  agraded hurdle, then that leaves a single horse, namely Back In Focus, and he becomes a solid bet. Thrown straight in at Grade 2 level for his hurdles debut, he easily accounted for Court In Motion over 3 miles at
Haydock, earning the comment 'driven and stayed on strongly'. That's good enough for me....wish they were all this simple.

Selection: Back In Focus

Will Back in Focus run if it's genuine good ground on Friday?

Good question. May have to re-evaluate if it proves not.

JOCI - really appreciate your thread and you seem to have a bit of sense. Would you be so kind as to give me an each way quad - ie your best 4 bets over the week and I will have £50ew quad. Thanks

Pressure! Has to be each way and decent odds then?

No Joci dont mind if they are all 3/1 - 7/1 range just your best 4 will do me thanks

Even if Quevega in there dont mind as only hoping to cover myself if they dont win! Or maybe give me 2 quads then - one £50 win - one £50 ew - I promise a nice kick back if we get it up

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular (non runner) - Hurricane Fly

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson -

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir - Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w) - Junior a probably win bet on day

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle - Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

14:05 County Hurdle - Final Approach, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w)

14:40 Albert Bartlett - Back In Focus

FRI 18 MAR 2011   
totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)CH4    3m2f110y Number of runners: 15   
   
The current field for the flagship staying chase of the entire year. for the creme de menthe of the staying chaser!
   
FORM    HORSE
11-4FP    Albertas Run62
42-664    Carruthers27
2-1134    China Rock34
1U24-3    Denman111
251U-1    Imperial Commander118
11F-13    Kauto Star62
P1-3U1    Kempes34
113-31    Long Run62
41111    Midnight Chase98
14/B01    Neptune Collonges48
111-P1    Pandorama80
31-561    Synchronised69
74-322    Tidal Bay48
111-18    Weird Al111
211-52    What A Friend28

I tend not to look at trends for this race and rather try and select a winner on instinct. However, some stats are hard to ignore, and it's worth keeping some of them in the back of the mind, even though you might eventually come to discount them.

This is a fascinating renewal, with several of the best chasers of the generation approaching the twilight of their careers, and attempting to give their all for one final lung bursting time in an attempt to achieve horse racing immortality. Then, we have the fast improving younger generation trying to steal their place at the top of the chasing ladder, and a couple of grizzled handicappers trying to bridge that class gap. A race to savour!

Here are my thoughts:

I can't fancy any of Albertas Run, China Rock or Carruthers, as I just don't see them having the raw ability to take this race. They are what I call the 'middle ground' horses, neither improving nor showing any real signs of decline, but just not able to bridge that gap to be very top class.

Denman, without doubt has been, and still is a top class racehorse, as shown by his excellent 3rd of top weight in this year's Hennessy, and as a former winner, is no stranger to this challenge. Probably no longer at his very best, and doesn't have the best win record over the last season or two, but on the basis of the Hennessy, could be capable of putting all together one last time and running a huge race. Will certainly take no prisoners. The trends say he's too old to win.

Imperial Commander, the reigning champion save his best for Cheltenham, always runs really well at this course, and runs best when fresh, as evidenced by his record, and his victory here last year, when he repelled all-comers. Age is not on his side either. Will be very hard to beat though, and connections are not surpisingly very bullish about his chances.

Kauto Star has been the best horse of the generation, and probably one of the best I've ever seen. Multiple King George winner, dual Gold Cup winner, and in the past with the speed and ability to win Grade 1 chases over the minimum trip too. A complete racehorse. But, his form arguably seems to have dipped this season, and he was well beaten in the King George this season by the up and coming Long Run. Has his time come to an end? Trends suggest it might be the case, as he's statistically not young enough to win. One final hurrah though? Imagine the scenes!

Kempes - a talented individual, and one of the band of potential improvers in the race. Coming here off the back of a nice victory in the Irish Hennessy, and will most likely improve again for the better ground. Can see him running a big race, but whether he'll be able to have the out and out guts and stamina required to keep going when others are piling on the pressure around the home turn...the jury's out.

Long Run - which horse will turn up here? The one who demolished the King George field with a wide margin success, or the horse who failed to win either the RSA Chase last year, seemed to run out of stamina on the run in (there were maybe excuses) or failed to run to his best in this season's Paddy Power Chase. Don't get me wrong, neither of those runs were poor by any stretch of the imagination, but there's always the possibility that Cheltenham isn't his cup of tea. If he can prove otherwise, then he's arguably the most likely winner.

Midnight Chase is the typical handicapper that shows dramatic improvement in the season, and then on the back of that improvement, throws his hat in the Gold Cup ring. Admirable horse, and acts round Cheltenham, but I think he comes into this race after winning off a mark in the 150s, and will have to again improve considerably, and hope others run below their marks to have a chance of having a hand in the finish. Tough though, and depending on how the race is run, might run on into a place through tiring horses.

Neptune Collonges - can't fancy this admirable grey, as he had his big chance in previous renewals of this race, and eventually was run out of it at the end. Will not lack for effort, but others are preferred. Has had his problems too, and age not on his side.

Pandorama - disappointed in the Hennessy, but put that behind him with an authoritative victory in the Lexus, on soft ground. Has a very good win to run ratio, and is a big strapping chaser, and probably more of an out and out stayer than Kempes. Has shown to be really adept at handling very soft ground yet this could count against him as the ground rarely gets very soft at Prestbury nowadays. Not conclusvie that he won't handle the ground though. He's had some training problems and hasn't run for some time, and that more than anything else might be a reason to oppose him, though not beyond the realm of possibility to see him doing a War Of Attrition.

Synchronised is an out and out stayer, who probably lacks both the class and the gears to land this big prize.

Tidal Bay - would be a huge anti0climax if Tidal Bay were to get his head in front. A very difficult horse, and a tough ride. Does nothing during the race then stays on through tiring horses, often flattering to deceive. Wuill be popular as an each way selection, but I can't have him. Had the chasing world at his feet after winning the Arkle a few years ago, and seemed to possess a great engine. He's subsequently disappointed and seems to have become mulish.

Weird Al - comes here in preference to the Ryanair. Acts well at the course but now has it to prove sfter a disappointing showing in the Hennessy. Had a breathing op, and this might give him some improvement. Has somethimes finished distressed in his races, which suggests his constitution might not be strong enough for this type of dogfight. Others are preferred.

What A Friend - probably being kept for Aintree, and on his run this season, would need to improve a lot to take a hand in the finish.

Summary: A fascinating renewal and one which is very dificult to call. However, I'm coming down on the side of Imperial Commander. Very impressive last year in grinding it out from Denman, he's a real Cheltenham specialist, and runs his best races when fresh, so he should have verything in his favour here. He's not the ideal age, and whilst I was tempted to put up Long Run against him, I'm put off by his two previous runs here. I prefer to go with the tried and trusted approach.

Selection: Imperial Commander

bigal123 Joined: 17 Jul 10
Replies: 46 13 Mar 11 13:34 
No Joci dont mind if they are all 3/1 - 7/1 range just your best 4 will do me thanks


bigal123 - you could do worse than give the following a try:

Oscars Well
Knight Pass
Baby Run
Poquelin

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular (non runner) - Hurricane Fly

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson -

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir - Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w) - Junior a probably win bet on day

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle - Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

14:05 County Hurdle - Final Approach, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w)

14:40 Albert Bartlett - Back In Focus

15:20 Gold Cup - Imperial Commander

Great read Joci..

Midnight Chase is the typical handicapper that shows dramatic improvement in the season, and then on the back of that improvement, throws his hat in the Gold Cup ring. Admirable horse, and acts round Cheltenham, but I think he comes into this race after winning off a mark in the 150s, and will have to again improve considerably, and hope others run below their marks to have a chance of having a hand in the finish


in bold is what I  believe will happen...bringing Midnight Chase into the mix..

Interesting to see if you're correct on that score. One of the JOCI Club also fancies his chances, believing it's a case of out with the old......

Thanks joci did a quad and stand to win 21000. Fingers crossed lol

FRI 18 MAR 2011   
Christie´s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (CLASS 2) (5yo+)CH4   
3m2f110y Number of runners: 41   

   
   
FORM    HORSE
P-1322    15 Amicelli27P
254653    12 Annacarton13
11-312    2 Another Rum26P
1790P    7 Apollo Blaze29
11U-11    Baby Run27
13-221    Blu Teen7
32P11    Border Fusion12P
112/11    Dante´s Storm31
5613d1    Description27P
221014    16 Distant Thunder28
44-643    Gentle George29
952-11    Gone To Lunch27P
32621    Herons Well19
P-U45P    13 Joaaci14
616-11    Just Amazing24
2P-433    9 Just Talking27P
P-5155    6 Little Rocker19P
22321    Mount Benger22
9-5133    Noakarad De Verzee22
3411-1    On The Fringe34
32U121    1 Optimistic Harry20P
830111    Oscar Delta26P
11-111    Oscatello26P
O2137-    Reach For The Top344
F1-112    Rudi Trucker34
212111    14 Session Or Ression19P
11P11    Special Portrait22
552242    Templer22
412-33    3 Thirtytwo Red17
1P3P43    4 Thunder Hawk30
2-2414    Turthen30
3-6121    11 Up There33P
11221    Whizzaar15
21P-33    10 Worship The Stars12P
211521    Zemsky30
3-1221    5 Fruitfull Citizen279P
F-P211    Jaunty Flight33P
12-211    17 Mid Div And Creep41P
1-2323    8 Poppy Day20P
3-1111    Sericina29
11-422    Theatre Diva27P

The Gold Cup for the hunters! Here we go.....

I'd have no hesitation in omitting any horse who failed to come in the top 3 last time out.

P-1322    15 Amicelli27P
254653    12 Annacarton13
11-312    2 Another Rum26P
11U-11    Baby Run27
13-221    Blu Teen7
32P11    Border Fusion12P
112/11    Dante´s Storm31
5613d1    Description27P
44-643    Gentle George29
952-11    Gone To Lunch27P
32621    Herons Well19
616-11    Just Amazing24
2P-433    9 Just Talking27P
22321    Mount Benger22
9-5133    Noakarad De Verzee22
3411-1    On The Fringe34
32U121    1 Optimistic Harry20P
830111    Oscar Delta26P
11-111    Oscatello26P
F1-112    Rudi Trucker34
212111    14 Session Or Ression19P
11P11    Special Portrait22
552242    Templer22
412-33    3 Thirtytwo Red17
1P3P43    4 Thunder Hawk30
3-6121    11 Up There33P
11221    Whizzaar15
21P-33    10 Worship The Stars12P
211521    Zemsky30
3-1221    5 Fruitfull Citizen279P
F-P211    Jaunty Flight33P
12-211    17 Mid Div And Creep41P
1-2323    8 Poppy Day20P
3-1111    Sericina29
11-422    Theatre Diva27P

Following that, I'd look to oppose horses that have failed to win over 3 miles +.

P-1322    15 Amicelli27P
254653    12 Annacarton13
11-312    2 Another Rum26P
11U-11    Baby Run27
13-221    Blu Teen7
32P11    Border Fusion12P
112/11    Dante´s Storm31
5613d1    Description27P
44-643    Gentle George29
952-11    Gone To Lunch27P
32621    Herons Well19
616-11    Just Amazing24
22321    Mount Benger22
9-5133    Noakarad De Verzee22
3411-1    On The Fringe34
32U121    1 Optimistic Harry20P
830111    Oscar Delta26P
F1-112    Rudi Trucker34
212111    14 Session Or Ression19P
11P11    Special Portrait22
552242    Templer22
1P3P43    4 Thunder Hawk30
11221    Whizzaar15
21P-33    10 Worship The Stars12P
211521    Zemsky30
3-1221    5 Fruitfull Citizen279P
F-P211    Jaunty Flight33P
12-211    17 Mid Div And Creep41P
3-1111    Sericina29
11-422    Theatre Diva27P

Horses aged over 10 can be opposed with confidence, with the exception of former winners of the Foxhunters. This rules out several more.

11U-11    Baby Run27
112/11    Dante´s Storm31
5613d1    Description27P
32621    Herons Well19
616-11    Just Amazing24
3411-1    On The Fringe34
830111    Oscar Delta26P
212111    14 Session Or Ression19P
11P11    Special Portrait22
211521    Zemsky30
F-P211    Jaunty Flight33P
3-1111    Sericina29

I'd actually narrow the field down further by restricting the shortlist to those finishing first last time out as we still have a lot of qualifiers after following the less restrictive approach.

11U-11    Baby Run27
13-221    Blu Teen7
32P11    Border Fusion12P
112/11    Dante´s Storm31
5613d1    Description27P
952-11    Gone To Lunch27P
32621    Herons Well19
616-11    Just Amazing24
22321    Mount Benger22
3411-1    On The Fringe34
32U121    1 Optimistic Harry20P
830111    Oscar Delta26P
212111    14 Session Or Ression19P
11P11    Special Portrait22
11221    Whizzaar15
211521    Zemsky30
3-1221    5 Fruitfull Citizen279P
F-P211    Jaunty Flight33P
12-211    17 Mid Div And Creep41P
3-1111    Sericina29

Now, ideally you'd want to have on your side a horse that has performed at a high level e.g. won a class 2 chase or higher. This narrows down the field considerably:

11U-11    Baby Run27
616-11    Just Amazing24
F-P211    Jaunty Flight33P

Drawing the line here, my thoughts are that this race should be won again by Baby Run. The horse did me proud last year at tasty odds, and I fully expect him to do the same this time round (at somewhat less exciting odds). I expect Just Amazing to give the selection most to do, and might even throw in a sneaky exacta on the two of them.

Selection: Baby Run; exacta Baby Run & Just Amazing

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular (non runner) - Hurricane Fly

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson -

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir - Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w) - Junior a probably win bet on day

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle - Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

14:05 County Hurdle - Final Approach, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w)

14:40 Albert Bartlett - Back In Focus

15:20 Gold Cup - Imperial Commander

16:00 Foxhunters - Baby Run (NAP)

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle - no real clue at this stage, this is going to be one to look at in the pub on Thursday night. Very, very, very tentative thoughts at moment would include Shoegazer & Sir Des Champs.

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular (non runner) - Hurricane Fly

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson -

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir - Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w) - Junior a probably win bet on day

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle - Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

14:05 County Hurdle - Final Approach, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w)

14:40 Albert Bartlett - Back In Focus

15:20 Gold Cup - Imperial Commander

16:00 Foxhunters - Baby Run (NAP)

16:40 Martin Pipe Hurdle - Shoegazer (e/w) & Sir Des Champs (e/w) - very tentative - will have a closer look on the Thursday

FRI 18 MAR 2011   
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (5yo+)RUK   
2m110y Number of runners: 42   
   
   
   
NO.    HORSE
1F272    Tchico Polos28
P-2P74    Chaninbar118
5-0211d    Dan Breen21
113112    Stagecoach Pearl34
21314    Rock Noir41
203-45    Sports Line28
U6483    Oiseau De Nuit28
74-663    Oh Crick69
37-406    Consigliere69
428486    I´msingingtheblues28
P1123    Pepe Simo21
2136P3    Fiendish Flame26
P-3420    Tanks For That48
220771    Santa´s Son40
138-02    Nomecheki41
3-7111    Cadoudalas37
1F-911    Reindeer Dippin20
1-7111    William´s Wishes47
1U-25    Leo´s Lucky Star69
113-02    De Boitron32
6-9216    Askthemaster34
7-3F73    Rivaliste13
33F-1    Shoreacres24
1-2P10    Den Of Iniquity76
9-3973    17 Pigeon Island15
42201    16 Grand Lahou47
31163    15 Sway58
6-3125    14 Lastoftheleaders33
22411    13 Anquetta41
1522F    12 Keki Buku32
214731    11 Film Festival14 5x
221703    10 Quito Du Tresor35
31240    9 Riguez Dancer41
17313    8 Mister Stickler22
580P-7    7 Beggars Cap13
1-F771    6 Stormin Exit6 5x
144411    5 Elite Land13 5x
32U111    4 Peak Raider34
4-56F8    3 My Moment41
4-8305    2 Tramantano97
2721    1 Raysrock6 5x

Running out of time now folks, got packing etc to do for tomorrow, so a 'quick and dirty' review of the closing race of the 2011 Festival.

Trends wise, it's been quite remarkable how winners of this race tend to fall within a small 6 or 7 pound OR nad. I'm extending this by a pound either side, to only consider horses with an OR in the range 128-135. Also, I'd liek the horses to have finished in the top 3 on their last completed chase start. This whittles the field down to the following:

7-3F73    Rivaliste13
33F-1    Shoreacres24
9-3973    17 Pigeon Island15
42201    16 Grand Lahou47
31163    15 Sway58
22411    13 Anquetta41
1522F    12 Keki Buku32
214731    11 Film Festival14 5x
221703    10 Quito Du Tresor35
17313    8 Mister Stickler22
1-F771    6 Stormin Exit6 5x
144411    5 Elite Land13 5x
32U111    4 Peak Raider34

Of these remaining horses, the ones I'd like to focus on would be the ones that showed good winning form last time out. Of these, I'd consider the ones with the most likely profile to be Shoreacres, Anquetta and if he sneaks in off a very light weight, Peak Raider, and I'd put these up as my three each way selections against the field.

Selections: Shoreacres (e/w), Anquetta (e/w) & Peak Raider (e/w).

Tuesday

13:30 Supreme Novices - Cue Card (Recession Proof e/w)

14:05 Arkle - Medermit

14:40 Stewart Family Spinal Research H'Cap Chase - Skippers Brig (e/w) [likely non runner] & Adams Island (e/w)

15:20 Champion Hurdle - Binocular (non runner) - Hurricane Fly

16:00 Cross Country Chase - Garde Champetre (Lord Nellerie e/w)

16:40 Mares Hurdle - Quevega (NAP)

17:15 Centenary Novices H'Cap Chase - The Knoxs (e/w)

Wednesday

13:30 National Hunt Chase - Quito De La Roque (non runner) Chamirey (e/w)

14:05 Neptune Novices Hurdle - Oscars Well

14:40 RSA Chase - Time For Rupert (NAP)

15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase - Master Minded

16:00 Coral Cup - Final Approach & King Of The Night (e/w)

16:40 Fred Winter - Plan A & Domination (e/w)

17:15 Champion Bumper - Knight Pass

Thursday

13:30 Jewson - Wishfull Thinking

14:05 Pertemps Final - Barafundle (e/w) & Shoegazer (e/w)

14:40 Ryanair - Poquelin

15:20 World Hurdle - Big Buck's (NAP)

16:00 Byrne Group Plate - Quartz De Thaix, Quantitativeeasing (e/w) & Tharawaat (e/w)

16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir - Mostly Bob (e/w) & Isn't That Lucky (e/w) - Junior a probably win bet on day

Friday

13:30 Triumph Hurdle - Unaccompanied & Marsh Warbler (e/w)

14:05 County Hurdle - Final Approach, Alarazi & Bothy (e/w)

14:40 Albert Bartlett - Back In Focus

15:20 Gold Cup - Imperial Commander

16:00 Foxhunters - Baby Run (NAP)

16:40 Martin Pipe Hurdle - Shoegazer (e/w) & Sir Des Champs (e/w) - very tentative - will have a closer look on the Thursday

17:15 Grand Annual - Shorecraes (e/w0, Anquetta (e/w) & Peak Raider (e/w)

That's me done.....heading down tomorrow and catching the Preview Evening in the pub in Prestbury, to get some last minute snippets of information. Hope you have an enjoyable and profitable Festival, and manage to bag a few winners!

Joci - thansk for these, been really interesting, every one a great read.
I'm at the Royal Oak tomorrow, if you get the chance we should grab a beer ?

Could do, I'll be there with a couple of mates of mine.

joci u r topman gl

This has been a great thread Joci and deserves the best of rewards !  There's not a great deal i'd change to be honest.  I've only really disagreed on Divine Rhapsody and Rivage D'or.  I also like Definity rather than The Knox's in the Centenary and like Kilcrea Kim in the Albert Bartlett.  I think Baby Run might be opposable in the Foxhunters as 11yo's don't have a great record and prefer your e/w choice Just Amazing instead.


All that's left to say is good luck.  If you're doing well then i'll be doing well !

enjoyed your work joci and wish you all the best for a profitable festival.

Cheers - getting ready to head off to Cheltenham in the next couple of hours. Can't wait! Hope you have a good one too!

great stuff joci...though there are a whole raft of favourites among your picks. rarely ever pans out that way.

for me, peddlers cross, time for rupert, aegean dawn and weird al each way in the gc

good luck all

I guess lots of people use the trends, including bookies in pricing up the races, so it's not too surprising that it does come up with a fair proportion of favourites. Hopefully, this will be the punters' festival, rather than a benefit week for the bookies.

Youve dsimissed Edgbriar too easily, 20 for a recent C&D winner is fair price.

20/1

Smad Place reasonably strong too but can only see him placing.

Agree with Shoreacres, took 14/1 last week. good luck Joci

Cheers - you might be right about Edgbriar, but since his Cheltenham win, I've not been too impressed, and it will probably take a sudden return to that level of form or better for him to win here.

cheers mate
best thread on the forum
best of Irish luck to you

Two winners today in the shape of Hurricane Fly and the NAP Quevega so ended the day ahead

Post script:

Managed to get 8 winners overall but ended a bit down as had a very poor Wednesday.

Pleased to see that my tip for the RSA Chase (eventual non runner) Quito de la Roque subsequently came out and won at both Aintree and Punchestown. One to keep an eye on later this year.

took your time to feedback joci

Had too much to drink on the Friday night...just woke up!