Cheltenham Festival
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The majority of punters will back Cue Card with good reason, it has the best from in the race without doubt. However you have to go back to 2004 for the last fav to win this race, the great Brave Inca. Within this time 4 very strong fav’s have been beaten (Dunguib 4/5, Cousin Vinnny 9/4, Amaretto Rose 2/1 and Sweet Wake 5/2), interesting the last 2 were fav after winning the previous years Cheltenham Bumper as has Cue Card.
For once the Irish challenge doesn’t look strong, with Zaidpour still the strongest in the market despite some indifferent performances. Therefore it may prove more beneficial to look at the consistent English horses such as Al Ferof, Recession Proof and Sprinter Sacre.
Another interesting factor is you have to go back to 2003 to find a winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle that actually ran in the previous year’s Cheltenham Bumper. This would therefore cast doubts over Al Fereof.
Sprinter Sacre isn't exposed and could be anything, but a slight concern is the yard's insistance he will be a beeter chaser. A feeling that Henderson's Novices are top drawer.
Get Me Out of Here showed last year that a novice can win the Totesport Gold Trophy and then run well in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, therefore Recession Proof should be considered a danger.
Selection: Sprinter Sacre
Danger(s): Al Ferof & Recession Proof
For once the Irish challenge doesn’t look strong, with Zaidpour still the strongest in the market despite some indifferent performances. Therefore it may prove more beneficial to look at the consistent English horses such as Al Ferof, Recession Proof and Sprinter Sacre.
Another interesting factor is you have to go back to 2003 to find a winner of the Supreme Novice Hurdle that actually ran in the previous year’s Cheltenham Bumper. This would therefore cast doubts over Al Fereof.
Sprinter Sacre isn't exposed and could be anything, but a slight concern is the yard's insistance he will be a beeter chaser. A feeling that Henderson's Novices are top drawer.
Get Me Out of Here showed last year that a novice can win the Totesport Gold Trophy and then run well in the Supreme Novice Hurdle, therefore Recession Proof should be considered a danger.
Selection: Sprinter Sacre
Danger(s): Al Ferof & Recession Proof
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NTFBH.......Not too far Barry....Hopefully???
Possibly the hardest race of the meeting, year in year out,unexposed novices with minimal collateral formlines,with the market leaders having shown their hand, all the rage.Some would suggest a watching brief,however finding the winner does indeed get the ticker going.
Normally a strong trends race,the last two winners have not met all of the usual stats.This years renewal revolves around C Card,who simply demolished last years bumper field.There are negatives with him,and his current price would not appeal personally.
It would be unwise to write off the irish challenge just yet,they have a good record in the supreme, and often with unexposed types.W Mullins has 8 entered,he took a similar approach in 2007 and Ebaziyan duly obliged at 40/1,whatever he runs requires close inspection.
Had a look earlier at the entries on the RP Website,interestingly few horses would meet most of the stronger trends,however this can change over the next couple weeks.
If barry rides sprinter,that may well be a tip in itself,looking forward to seeing this fella in the paddock,as his trainer seems bullish re his scope.
Nothing stands out at present,as usual at this stage,whatever happens this race always produces good horses,a must have on the sky plus,hopefully a new star will appear this year.
Good Luck ntfbh and all.
Possibly the hardest race of the meeting, year in year out,unexposed novices with minimal collateral formlines,with the market leaders having shown their hand, all the rage.Some would suggest a watching brief,however finding the winner does indeed get the ticker going.
Normally a strong trends race,the last two winners have not met all of the usual stats.This years renewal revolves around C Card,who simply demolished last years bumper field.There are negatives with him,and his current price would not appeal personally.
It would be unwise to write off the irish challenge just yet,they have a good record in the supreme, and often with unexposed types.W Mullins has 8 entered,he took a similar approach in 2007 and Ebaziyan duly obliged at 40/1,whatever he runs requires close inspection.
Had a look earlier at the entries on the RP Website,interestingly few horses would meet most of the stronger trends,however this can change over the next couple weeks.
If barry rides sprinter,that may well be a tip in itself,looking forward to seeing this fella in the paddock,as his trainer seems bullish re his scope.
Nothing stands out at present,as usual at this stage,whatever happens this race always produces good horses,a must have on the sky plus,hopefully a new star will appear this year.
Good Luck ntfbh and all.
Gone in on a few tonight.
Snap Tie - 25/1 Grand Annual and 33/1 County Hurdle
Junior - 12/1 Kim Muir - Say worth taking, 8/1 on here now only for small money though, apparently connections preferred choice.
Snap Tie - 25/1 Grand Annual and 33/1 County Hurdle
Junior - 12/1 Kim Muir - Say worth taking, 8/1 on here now only for small money though, apparently connections preferred choice.
Cue Card is the centre of this race. He could quite easily still be improving and could do the obvious to many and win this race easily. I definitely think he will be there at the finish but in a race with so many potential winners I couldn't get involved at his current price. His 2nd behind Menorah looks good on paper but backer's must be concerned with what is essentially a staying novice getting so close whilst giving weight away. Another reason I am not backing Cue Card is because I am not a fan of the Champion Bumper/Supreme route. In my eyes to win a Champion Bumper with a 4/5 y.o you need a very forward horse with a lot of talent that essentially stays well. That's the reason I think the stat exists. It throws out stayers. Some will argue that Dunguib is a 2 miler but you have to remember how mature and old he was when he ran in the bumper.
I got involved quite early in this race and I have a fair bet on Sprinter Sacre from 30's down to 11's. I was told at the start of the season by a friend that this was likely to be the best novice in the yard. I think he could still be value because for me if it wasn't for Barry Geraghty the horse would not even be running and I will be very suprised if he doesn't ride him and when that's confirmed I guess he will be a 5/1 shot? Make no mistake this horse is likely to be better over fences but Barry holds him in very high regard, he jumps well and travels with so much pace it would be no shock for him to win it well. IMO he is probably the horse with the biggest future ahead of him but time will tell.
Looking at other options Spirit Son is looking like a very slick hurdler who in my mind could be as good as or better than anything. I was extremely taken by the way he trounced everything out of site at Exeter in those conditions and still looked full of running, ears pricked. Cedre Bleu although very much a horse for next year is very well thought of and he left him in the mud.. Literally. If Barry rides it will speak volumes and I doubt Sprinter will even start. If not I could maybe see AP(does he have a supreme ride anymore?)or Paul Carberry on board!?
I backed Recession Proof for the Totesport Trophy and he really did deliver. He has a great profile going into this race much like Get Me Out Of Here did last season. One thing is you know what you will get with this horse. He finds a lot for pressure and is improving at a very fast rate after transfering from the flat. His hurdling is very good and he travels well at a fast pace so the Supreme looks tailor made.
Zaidpour at the start of the season was giving the impression that he may well be battling Cue Card over favouritism. His last two runs although possibly on ground he may not like have been very disappointing. Possibly he was just over rated for average wins but for me he has travelled like a horse who is not quite right. He has a lot to do if he is to bounce back to form to even challenge for a place but he is with the right man in W. Mullins for getting them ready for the festival.
Al Ferof can't be written off for the champion trainer Paul Nicholls and if Ruby is on board he is likely to be much shorter on the day. His third in the Challow in my mind was not because he didn't settle but because he was ridden poorly. This horse needs to be ridden prominently in my mind and gallop his rivals into submission. The only problem I see for this horse is he is likely to have plenty of no hopers taking him on from the start and by the time he gets to the bottom of the hill he could be a sitting duck.
Others worth mentioning at big prices are Megastar and Hidden Universe. While they have both been knocked down the pecking order after poor runs they are both likely to improve for the better ground. Whether that's enough remains to be seen but they are not to be underestimated.
I will stick with Sprinter Sacre and will probably back another depending on how things unfold on the day.
I got involved quite early in this race and I have a fair bet on Sprinter Sacre from 30's down to 11's. I was told at the start of the season by a friend that this was likely to be the best novice in the yard. I think he could still be value because for me if it wasn't for Barry Geraghty the horse would not even be running and I will be very suprised if he doesn't ride him and when that's confirmed I guess he will be a 5/1 shot? Make no mistake this horse is likely to be better over fences but Barry holds him in very high regard, he jumps well and travels with so much pace it would be no shock for him to win it well. IMO he is probably the horse with the biggest future ahead of him but time will tell.
Looking at other options Spirit Son is looking like a very slick hurdler who in my mind could be as good as or better than anything. I was extremely taken by the way he trounced everything out of site at Exeter in those conditions and still looked full of running, ears pricked. Cedre Bleu although very much a horse for next year is very well thought of and he left him in the mud.. Literally. If Barry rides it will speak volumes and I doubt Sprinter will even start. If not I could maybe see AP(does he have a supreme ride anymore?)or Paul Carberry on board!?
I backed Recession Proof for the Totesport Trophy and he really did deliver. He has a great profile going into this race much like Get Me Out Of Here did last season. One thing is you know what you will get with this horse. He finds a lot for pressure and is improving at a very fast rate after transfering from the flat. His hurdling is very good and he travels well at a fast pace so the Supreme looks tailor made.
Zaidpour at the start of the season was giving the impression that he may well be battling Cue Card over favouritism. His last two runs although possibly on ground he may not like have been very disappointing. Possibly he was just over rated for average wins but for me he has travelled like a horse who is not quite right. He has a lot to do if he is to bounce back to form to even challenge for a place but he is with the right man in W. Mullins for getting them ready for the festival.
Al Ferof can't be written off for the champion trainer Paul Nicholls and if Ruby is on board he is likely to be much shorter on the day. His third in the Challow in my mind was not because he didn't settle but because he was ridden poorly. This horse needs to be ridden prominently in my mind and gallop his rivals into submission. The only problem I see for this horse is he is likely to have plenty of no hopers taking him on from the start and by the time he gets to the bottom of the hill he could be a sitting duck.
Others worth mentioning at big prices are Megastar and Hidden Universe. While they have both been knocked down the pecking order after poor runs they are both likely to improve for the better ground. Whether that's enough remains to be seen but they are not to be underestimated.
I will stick with Sprinter Sacre and will probably back another depending on how things unfold on the day.
MM...Excellent post
Wish you well with your antepost,a nice one to have at this stage.Nagging feeling that something unexposed is there.finding the beast is the key!Recent renewals have all gone to horses with minimal hype pre- race,later developing types can make giant strides with better ground being the key to some,and a little spring sunshine...interesting which one barry chooses, he is a superb race rider.
Wish you well with your antepost,a nice one to have at this stage.Nagging feeling that something unexposed is there.finding the beast is the key!Recent renewals have all gone to horses with minimal hype pre- race,later developing types can make giant strides with better ground being the key to some,and a little spring sunshine...interesting which one barry chooses, he is a superb race rider.
I really rate the fav and think he is a fair price at the moment. In the CC thread I've highlighted Dunraven Storm as a value bet at the prices. He beat Recession Proof by 4 lengths off levels last Autumn before his form fell away. However he ran 4 times in 6 weeks at the start of the season and this clearly was too much for him. He is far better than he showed in his last run and there is a chance that his 8 lengths loss to to CC wasn't his best form because even that was his 3rd race in just over a month. The strong pace and big field will suit him and he is a very sound jumper from what I have seen which is always a question mark in this race.
My selection would be Dunraven's storm 2pts ew.
My selection would be Dunraven's storm 2pts ew.
I think Cue Card has a great chance too. He was clearly in need of the race when he ran into a top class effort of menorah last time, he travelled supremely well for a long way. It shows how well thought of he is that he was actually quite short to beat Menorah.
I really cannot have the "trend" of beaten favourites for this race as any sort of reason to back one horse or another. Trends in respect to starting prices or favourites, of all the inane trends used by people, is the one that can have absolutely no bearing on the outcome of any race.
If you pursue the "not a favourites race" ruipoe, you end up with a crazy position whereby Cue Card must have a better chance if he drifts in the betting like a barge and starts second favourite. Horses tend not be aware of their position in the betting when taking the final flight up the hill at Cheltenham or anywhere else.
I really cannot have the "trend" of beaten favourites for this race as any sort of reason to back one horse or another. Trends in respect to starting prices or favourites, of all the inane trends used by people, is the one that can have absolutely no bearing on the outcome of any race.
If you pursue the "not a favourites race" ruipoe, you end up with a crazy position whereby Cue Card must have a better chance if he drifts in the betting like a barge and starts second favourite. Horses tend not be aware of their position in the betting when taking the final flight up the hill at Cheltenham or anywhere else.
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