Cheltenham Festival
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the world hurdle dominated by last years winner big bucks and the big improver and main threat to his crown grans crus . so is it a 2 horse race ,going by the betting you would belive it is but you wont get rich backing any one of them at 11/10 and 9/4 .
igrans crus was very impressive last time and could be anything and we know all about big bucks ,mourad from the powerfull mullins stable has been winning well on very soft ground in ireland and is also a bit of an unknown quantity but has he beaten anything of note priced around 14/1 he could be an e.way alternative .
the horse that interests me if he runs ,at a massive price 85s now on betfair ,i took the 110s to a good amount and one who has slipped in under the radar is grans crus stablemate ashkazar rated 161 he was stepped up to 3m for the first time at cheltenham in january in a class2 handicap on good to soft carrying 11.12 he was held up on inside ,steady headway into 4th place but plenty to do 2 out ,effort and led run in stayed on strongly ,beating his stablemates junior and chartreux ( giving them lumps of weight )3/1/4lengths and 3lnths with subsequent good handicap winner kilcrea kim further behind also recieving plenty of weight , the way the world hurdle is run could be ideal for this horse timmy murphy should have him settled well off the pace ,grans crus should be prominent and big bucks wouldnt want to be too far behind grans crus possibly in the 1st 3-4 as we know big bucks can hit a flat spot so ruby wont want to let g.cs have too much rope its possible that grans crus could be out on his feet coming to the last and the effort of big bucks keeping so close to him could set the race up for a finisher like ashkazar who must be a fair each way bet at the prices not saying he will beat big bucks or for that matter g.crus but big bucks is going to get beat sooner or later and this could be the fella to do it ,by the way grans crus won his 3mile cheltenham hurdle on good to soft carrying 11.4 in a time of 6m,3.60s ,and ashkazar won his 3m hurdle over the same course and distance on good to soft in 5m59.10 carrying 11.12 so something to ponder there .good luck all
igrans crus was very impressive last time and could be anything and we know all about big bucks ,mourad from the powerfull mullins stable has been winning well on very soft ground in ireland and is also a bit of an unknown quantity but has he beaten anything of note priced around 14/1 he could be an e.way alternative .
the horse that interests me if he runs ,at a massive price 85s now on betfair ,i took the 110s to a good amount and one who has slipped in under the radar is grans crus stablemate ashkazar rated 161 he was stepped up to 3m for the first time at cheltenham in january in a class2 handicap on good to soft carrying 11.12 he was held up on inside ,steady headway into 4th place but plenty to do 2 out ,effort and led run in stayed on strongly ,beating his stablemates junior and chartreux ( giving them lumps of weight )3/1/4lengths and 3lnths with subsequent good handicap winner kilcrea kim further behind also recieving plenty of weight , the way the world hurdle is run could be ideal for this horse timmy murphy should have him settled well off the pace ,grans crus should be prominent and big bucks wouldnt want to be too far behind grans crus possibly in the 1st 3-4 as we know big bucks can hit a flat spot so ruby wont want to let g.cs have too much rope its possible that grans crus could be out on his feet coming to the last and the effort of big bucks keeping so close to him could set the race up for a finisher like ashkazar who must be a fair each way bet at the prices not saying he will beat big bucks or for that matter g.crus but big bucks is going to get beat sooner or later and this could be the fella to do it ,by the way grans crus won his 3mile cheltenham hurdle on good to soft carrying 11.4 in a time of 6m,3.60s ,and ashkazar won his 3m hurdle over the same course and distance on good to soft in 5m59.10 carrying 11.12 so something to ponder there .good luck all
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It's a one horse race as I told you all before, Big Bucks is someone else! He is the greatest stayer of all time. He is the real thing!
Very good write up, Foyleswar. I rated the race Ashkazar won quite highly on a quick assessment of it, not least because Gwanako and Junior ensured it was a pretty true test in the latter stages, albeit that most of the others sat well back (or were forced well back) off them. I wasn't surprised to see Kilcrea Kim come out and win a decent handicap next time, and I'll be looking out for Gwanako and Junior if the right race crops up for them later in the season.
Your point about the comparative overall race times of Ashkazar's win and GC's win is food for thought. Perhaps someone who has analysed the speed ratings for those two races would be able to shed further light on that angle and comment on just how comparable they think the actual going between the two races was and thoughts on the sectional times.
It will be interesting to see if Ashkazar is entered in the Pertemps - there may be an update on plans for Ashkazar in the next couple of days. He is a horse I don't feel I have got to grips with - not analysed his races enough. There has been the occasional race where I have been very impressed with him, so he is probably worth the effort to try and figure out what brings the best out of him and why at times he has looked to under perform somewhat.
The market is seeing it very much as a two horse race for the WH. It would be ironic if we get the equivalent in the WH of what happened in the GC last season where the Kauto/Denman show was upstaged by one at a much bigger price. Mourad has been winning well, possibly against fairly limited opposition, on deep ground in Ireland. That is to his credit, as he should improve further for slightly better ground. There are a few things I like very much about his profile for this race and he may offer some value in the W/O BB market, particularly against GC who could be a fair bit too short in that market at present. Nothing against GC, but if he serves it up to BB in the latter stages of the race and happens to come up just short, his chances of finishing second might be lessened as a consequence. Ashkazar and Powerstation are two that could be running on and creep into a place at a good price (W/O BB E/W market) from further back in the field,
At the very least with Ashkazar, it could be well worth re-visiting his win last time, with a view to assessing more thoroughly the value of the race, as you have done. The performance may have been underestimated; Kilcrea Kim was certainly underestimated next time out and came home in front at a nice price. Junior has a big race in him, I think and we will see later this week what the plans are with Gwanako in relation to the Festival - I see he was being quoted in the Pertemps market.
Your point about the comparative overall race times of Ashkazar's win and GC's win is food for thought. Perhaps someone who has analysed the speed ratings for those two races would be able to shed further light on that angle and comment on just how comparable they think the actual going between the two races was and thoughts on the sectional times.
It will be interesting to see if Ashkazar is entered in the Pertemps - there may be an update on plans for Ashkazar in the next couple of days. He is a horse I don't feel I have got to grips with - not analysed his races enough. There has been the occasional race where I have been very impressed with him, so he is probably worth the effort to try and figure out what brings the best out of him and why at times he has looked to under perform somewhat.
The market is seeing it very much as a two horse race for the WH. It would be ironic if we get the equivalent in the WH of what happened in the GC last season where the Kauto/Denman show was upstaged by one at a much bigger price. Mourad has been winning well, possibly against fairly limited opposition, on deep ground in Ireland. That is to his credit, as he should improve further for slightly better ground. There are a few things I like very much about his profile for this race and he may offer some value in the W/O BB market, particularly against GC who could be a fair bit too short in that market at present. Nothing against GC, but if he serves it up to BB in the latter stages of the race and happens to come up just short, his chances of finishing second might be lessened as a consequence. Ashkazar and Powerstation are two that could be running on and creep into a place at a good price (W/O BB E/W market) from further back in the field,
At the very least with Ashkazar, it could be well worth re-visiting his win last time, with a view to assessing more thoroughly the value of the race, as you have done. The performance may have been underestimated; Kilcrea Kim was certainly underestimated next time out and came home in front at a nice price. Junior has a big race in him, I think and we will see later this week what the plans are with Gwanako in relation to the Festival - I see he was being quoted in the Pertemps market.
Had similar bet to you for same reason , plus won Punjabis Kingwell , bit quirky though . Its still a two horse race inspite of that .
Nice write up Foyles/AKA.
Slightly off topic Aka but I reckon Junior has got a handicap chase at the festival written all over him. Form with Midnight Chase rock solid from November. As well as Kilcrea Kim coming out and winning Mobassher has too. Up to 139 over hurdles he still remains very well treated off 134 over hurdles.
Problem is where will he run, as being rated 134 he's also qualified to run in the 0-140 FWKM as well as the Will Hill.
Connections have said that the FWKM is favourite at the moment with them also having an eye on the Scottish National and old Whitbread at the end of the season. At the moment he's 16/1 for both the WH and FWKM and to be honest I think he'd represent massive value in whichever race he turns up, but as a betting proposition now it's still a bit early to consider him I'd say. Though of course when they announce which race he'll be aimed at his price will collapse.
Slightly off topic Aka but I reckon Junior has got a handicap chase at the festival written all over him. Form with Midnight Chase rock solid from November. As well as Kilcrea Kim coming out and winning Mobassher has too. Up to 139 over hurdles he still remains very well treated off 134 over hurdles.
Problem is where will he run, as being rated 134 he's also qualified to run in the 0-140 FWKM as well as the Will Hill.
Connections have said that the FWKM is favourite at the moment with them also having an eye on the Scottish National and old Whitbread at the end of the season. At the moment he's 16/1 for both the WH and FWKM and to be honest I think he'd represent massive value in whichever race he turns up, but as a betting proposition now it's still a bit early to consider him I'd say. Though of course when they announce which race he'll be aimed at his price will collapse.
should read 'very well treated off 134 over FENCES'
Yes, agree, EC, it is the chase angle that is particularly interesting. The best we can hope for is that he'll turn up in a race where there are one or two more popular fancies (with less actual substance to their chances), so that his price doesn't deflate too much.
cheers aka,extreme con . interesting thoughts about junior,i hadnt got round to assesing the handicap races at festival yet but i actually backed junior and chartreux in the race that ashkazar won and thought i was home and hosed untill i spotted t.murphy on the winner ,he powerered up the hill and junior is definatly of strong interest in whichever race he goes in .
i think i remember backing him in that royal ascot marathon race and he led all the way and stayed on strongly so he is very usefull and on as you say a very good mark .
regarding ashkazar ,i think the step up to 3 miles for the first time may have been the key he travels well, and although he has been a little inconsistent at times he has good course form and has a touch of class,
i get very interested when there is talk of a 2 horse race as the 2 take a big percentage of the market and leave bigger prices for less talked up horses ,as we all know races dont always pan out how people expect them to , ashkazar can be backed w/o big bucks at around 14s at the moment so i may have some of that soon , anyway its all hypothetical at the moment as we dont know for sure ashkazars or indeed juniors targets .aka/and extreme ,would like your thoughts on some of the other festival races ,read several of your threads very good input keep up the good work ,
i think i remember backing him in that royal ascot marathon race and he led all the way and stayed on strongly so he is very usefull and on as you say a very good mark .
regarding ashkazar ,i think the step up to 3 miles for the first time may have been the key he travels well, and although he has been a little inconsistent at times he has good course form and has a touch of class,
i get very interested when there is talk of a 2 horse race as the 2 take a big percentage of the market and leave bigger prices for less talked up horses ,as we all know races dont always pan out how people expect them to , ashkazar can be backed w/o big bucks at around 14s at the moment so i may have some of that soon , anyway its all hypothetical at the moment as we dont know for sure ashkazars or indeed juniors targets .aka/and extreme ,would like your thoughts on some of the other festival races ,read several of your threads very good input keep up the good work ,
i agree, it seems a one horse race to me. can't see anything get within 10 length of the Pipe Horse.Grands Crus is one of the best i think i've ever seen.If he stays free from injury could well win the Gold Cup in a couple of years
ramraid44....'one of the best i've ever seen'; i presume you can only have been watching racing for 2 months based on that!!
I can't knock the horse as it has done everything asked of it in its most recent runs but come on!! Also, with regards to the Gold Cup, the horse is the size of a pony. I'm not saying it won't take to fences but I'd be surprised to see it over them, especially if it confirms the promise it has recently shown by placing in the Stayers.
I can't knock the horse as it has done everything asked of it in its most recent runs but come on!! Also, with regards to the Gold Cup, the horse is the size of a pony. I'm not saying it won't take to fences but I'd be surprised to see it over them, especially if it confirms the promise it has recently shown by placing in the Stayers.
Spat out my porridge there, bigbucks; I thought you were putting yourself down. Good job you spotted the typo error
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You just make sure you don't **** it up at the last hurdle; that is where it matters.
Hell of a horse, BB, and not one I would be opposing. The place only and W/O BB markets though interesting to look at for some possible value.
Hell of a horse, BB, and not one I would be opposing. The place only and W/O BB markets though interesting to look at for some possible value.
bigbucks anders, appreciate your affection for the horse and he is a worthy champion but at the prices bbs and gcrus are no value to me imo ,and down the years the festival is littererd with good things that cant get beat ,good luck if you have backed him though ,its all about opinions
**** already paying out on all Big Bucks bets!
Does anyone know the situation with Restless Harry. His price has gone right out to 330pts on here. I know he is up against it with the main principles but that is a massive price. Any help out there??
shakespears ,have you looked through the handicap entries ,maybee he is entererd for one of them and that is his preference .
Foyles......good point, but just check and he is only entered in the world hurdle??
well its up to you mate ,he wont be those odds on the day but will he run ?thats the chance you take ,
Been on Dickin's site and nothing says he's injured and stil entered. Worth a couple of quid. His place price is only 11s so it shows they think he could sneak a place but his style of running could set it up for the other principles....
Listen to the king! Big Bucks will win. Big Bucks is the best in the world. He is the best ever so just get all your money on him. He is the real thing!
Solwhit is the classiest animal Big Bucks will have come up against atleast since he beat Mighty Man giving him weight at Aintree in my opinion, and although he might not beat him, Solwhit represents cracking value @ 8/1 without Big Bucks.
couldnt argue with you there slabs he is well worth a try at 3miles
On soft ground Solwhit would have a great chance of beating Big Bucks but two problems, firstly can't see it being soft and secondly I'm convinced Grands Crus will beat both of them on any ground
I think the front two will pull a mile clear but Solwhit a good addition to the race always liked him but not quite the horse I thought he may become.
Shakespeare's
Restless Harry is well and will run in the race assuming he stays that way
Entry into the Coral Cup was considered but not made
He may not be good enough to win the race but could well trade a lot shorter than 350 before / during the race
Restless Harry is well and will run in the race assuming he stays that way
Entry into the Coral Cup was considered but not made
He may not be good enough to win the race but could well trade a lot shorter than 350 before / during the race
scanned the thread and did n't see a mention for 543 - might have missed it though.
yeah reaseheath 543 sipped under the radar a bit, has course form and must be a contender just the possible bounce factor but a bit of a forgotton horse, this looks a very strong race to me
just found another interesting factor concening the cheltenham races that ashkazar and grans crus won over course and distance ,grans crus had a good yardstick in mobaasher rec,4 lb 11 lengths back in 4th on good to soft soft ,and ashkazar had mobaasher rec 7 lb 24 lengths behind , at 14s in the without big bucks market ashkazar must rate fair value indeed he is one to take very seriuosly in the win market imo .........
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