Cheltenham Festival
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Is it possible to second ghess W.Mullins?
Is it possible to second ghess W.Mullins?
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Replies: 92
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CV - has WM definitely said that Blackstair goes for the County? (hope so as I strongly fancy him for that race and CTP for the Coral).
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Yes says that race is the target for bsm, coral for ctp if they got a good mark.
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Many thanks.
They could hardly have got better marks. |
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I like Blazing Tempo for the Centenary Novices chase on Day 1
20/1 with Sid James who go 5 places ew but not doing NRNB yet - shortened in a few places today (and on here), but as the title of the thread says I'm too scared to second guess Willie when its not NRNB |
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I also like Blazing Tempo, very natural jumper. But she's in lots of races, and with the Centenary weights very tight at the top, do you think she might be better off with the mares' allowance in one of the conditions races ?
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Mullins said he'd assess he handicap rating before deciding what race to go for but it seems like 2 1/2 miles for her, which one is unknown.
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what happened to Samain....thought he had a real chance in the bumper?
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I would have expected more of a reaction in the markets for Day of a Lifetime in the Supreme? Has this really been confirmed for the race.Remember it is Willie.
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Hope he doesnt have a choice of sh1tters in his house he might not make it a lot of the time while trying to decide which one to use.
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coupers,
in the weekender WM said day of a lifetime more likely to go for the 2.5 mile hurdle. |
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Thanks essexguy.More of the same from Willie.A statement like more likely.Dont get me wrong i would not and should not expect any different.Hence the title of this thread.
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The correct answer is no.
Having said that we all know the score, when betting you have to trust your own judgement to get the better prices. Willie is by no means the worst offender, he just has a lot of very nice horses! |
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He's got a really strong team this year; small stakes 8/1 wouldn't be the worst bet for top trainer.
He has live chances with Zaidpour, Hurricane Fly, So Young, Golden Silver, Quel Esprit, Quevega, Call the Police, Allure of Illusion and outside chances with Gagewell Flyer, Jy Vole, Mikael, Blazing Tempo and Kempes. |
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Paul Townend thinks Day of a lifetime has a big chance in the supreme, man this yard does my head in!!! :S
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I have never backed a Willie Mullins horse for the wrong race. Ever. That's the truth. So it's not like he is some enigma. Some horses are hard to figure out where they go so just back them nrnb for the race you fancy them for.
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in that case CV,could you tell us which race the following horses will run in
Mikd quel esperit day of a lifetime golden silver And could you tell us which races you have backed them in,if thats alright mate. |
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I backed Mikael D'Haguenet for the Arkle @ 28.0 and 50.0 and layed back at 44.0 once he skipped the Irish arkle he was RSA bound imv. So I backed Mikael for the RSA before he disappointed a lto. Not confident on him at all.
I have backed Quel Esprit for the RSA, I backed him before he jumped a fence as Mullins was talking about him as an RSA horse before he'd even jumped a hurdle. His troubled season and fall lto had caused Mullins to rethink his plans and switch to the 4 miler but he was impressive in the race course gallop and so was switched back to the original target of RSA. I have not backed Day of a Lifetime but Mullins thinks Neptune is the race for him given he is NH bred and will lack speed of the flat horses, also Rich Richie owns Zaidpour so he's not going to run both horses in the same race as his other Ballyhaunis isn't good enough for the Neptune so goes for the Coral cup I think. Golden silver is likely to take his chance in the Champion Chase. I've Hurricane Fly bakced for the Champion hurdle Zaidpour for the Supreme Gagewell Flyer for the Albert Bartlett I added So Young nrnb for the Neptune I've Blackstair Mountain nrnb for the County. |
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Cheers mate
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lol ... virtually had a campaign bus going for him to run in the Arkle on here then when it was obvious to the Pope who doesnt even bet that he wasnt going there, switched allegiances to the RSA.
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Of course no-one knows what Willie is going to do. Fanatsic trainer but you'd have more joy getting blood from a stone, case in point Quel Esprit the last week
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To be fair mate Quel was NHC bound after his troubled campaign until that gallop and Mikael's flop over 2m at Leopardstown put paid the his Arkle plans so I've been a bit lucky recently. I'm still down on Mikael for the Arkle unless anyone wants to take my lay that's up there at the moment
 Point is when you back horses at those odds like Mikael for the Arkle and Gagewell for the AB you're doing it for small stakes and in full knowledge that the risk of a non runner is factored into the price. I'll get caught some day, but my point is I never heavily back a Mullins horse unless I'm confident where it's going. |
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But didn't Mullins say Quel was going for the 4 miler after the gallop? Then 2 days later the RSA, he's simply a tool.
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yes he did rhinestone
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Correct he did, anything but a punters pal you cant get any worse than that for misinformation.
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I know there's a risk punting etc etc, but something should be done about it all. Certain ones are ok for example going for race A if it's soft or race B if it's good ground. Or even if he said we haven't decided whether to go for RSA or the NH yet, that's all he needs to do. He's done it for year's and is a disgrace. Henderson's getting quite bad as well.
Nicholls is open and you can trust him when he nominates a target. |
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Thats because he had planned to go for the 4 miler after Quel fell in the PJ Moriarty at Leopardstown. Then on reflection and after discussing it with the owners they felt since he was impressive in the gallop he deserved to go for the RSA. Anyway b365 were nrnb at the time so any backers who are not morons would have backed with them.
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€3,167 @ 11 to be laid yet 10/1 freely available with Corals and William Hill. Someone getting frisky with running arrangements?
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^ Zaidpour - Supreme Novice
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But he said after the gallop he was going for the 4 miler [smiley:crazy]
FYI - I haven't backed the horse. |
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Bookies are nrnb it's antepost rules on here.
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But what about before NRNB then? He does it loads.
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Did you read my post at all? He'd hardly discussed it with the owners when he was interviewed immediately after the gallop. He was RSA bound for the whole season and when they discussed plans after the gallops (I assume a few days after) they must've decided to go with the original plan.
I can't understand people being annoyed at him, he has always said he makes his mind up late, if you back any of his antepost you have no case for blaming him if you have done your money. You can always just wait for non runner no bet and back his then. |
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CVB stop being so biased like you are with all the Irish runners.
Another example when the Fly was in his novice season, all along he said Supreme or Ballymore (I was on massive for the Supreme and always knew that was the race), don't know which he is going for, yet after Cheltenham he said Fly was deffo going to have ran in the Supreme before his injury. Didn't he say Gagewell's going straight for the Neptune after last time out? Now he's going for the AB. If you bet for a living you could do without this type of thing. I do know plans can change but not like this guy does it. |
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CV, you make really valid points re WM. Actually backed Gagewell Flyer e/w for Neptune before NRNB but now seems it going for AB. Though I can get better odds still gone with B365 due to NRNB.
Have also backed Mourad and MDH for RSA in full knowledge that he can change his mind at last minute - the prices I got make up for the risk but done at small stakes |
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haha rinestone, time for you to shut up I think. boohoo, you lost some ap bets and want to blame Mullins.
waahwaah. He twicked me. Sore fcuking loser. |
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A silly reply ^ I used to think you were ok.
 As said earlier I have not backed QE. I have not backed Gagewell Flyer. I did lose some money on Hurricane Fly in the Supreme 2 years ago. |
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I couldn't be bothered with another reply, You were getting annoying.
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Truth hurts?
Anyway good luck, hope you win some coin. |
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Just because it's your opinion it doesn't make it the truth, thought you should know that.
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But it is the truth that he says one race then changes to another [smiley:crazy]
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