Cheltenham Festival
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A bit uneasy in the market today for the GC 
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Yes, it doesn't surprise me. I have already told you lot what is wrong with this horse.
BJG
I'm a big fan of the horse...even though I opposed for Denman last year. For wht it has done this season though - a workmanlike win first time...injury and no un since...laboured racecourse gallop...I'm surprised it hasn't been drifiting before now. If arriving spot on he remains the one to beat but I'd be worried about it's preparation.
I'm a big fan of the horse...even though I opposed for Denman last year. For wht it has done this season though - a workmanlike win first time...injury and no un since...laboured racecourse gallop...I'm surprised it hasn't been drifiting before now. If arriving spot on he remains the one to beat but I'd be worried about it's preparation.
Mayweather, missed your comments. Can you enlighten?
Can't Catch Me Joined: 02 Apr 03
Replies: 7527 21 Feb 11 16:26
I wouldnt expect much 'enlightenment' Lady M.
Ooh I dunno.
All the lights are on.....
Replies: 7527 21 Feb 11 16:26
I wouldnt expect much 'enlightenment' Lady M.
Ooh I dunno.
All the lights are on.....
So IC is fine and on-course for the 18th as far as we know?
Sorry, hadn't realised Mayweather's post had been dubious and was pulled.
Sorry, hadn't realised Mayweather's post had been dubious and was pulled.
Racecourse gallop at Kempton on Saturday so we'll be able to see his well-being with our own eyes.
Imperial Commander is progressing well and will have a spin around Kempton before racing at 1.00 p.m on Saturday, we think the pilot will be more than happy with the progress since Warwick. I am not sure what conflicting reports mean - as unless you understand Imperial then any judgement is superficial in the extreme. To quote one of the foremost Racing Post experts after his Kempton gallop last year "I wasn't very impressed and cannot see how he can win a Gold Cup on this evidence". After the same gallop our pilot was convinced we would win.
No preparation goes in a straight line, if it did we would all be trainers - just work them every other day until fit and then off you go. That is as true for the rest of the intended runners as it is for Imperial - all of them will have thrown in the odd indifferent piece of work during the preparation. I am not sure what the so called experts think they are looking at when they judge work or racecourse gallops, but Warwick and Kempton are about measuring progress and keeping him interested. Most of what has been written is simply nonsense.
Imperial is 10-y-o and his aches, pains and niggles need management. This preparation started the same as every other in that we get him going then assess any areas of concern that need to be addressed. Irrespective of anyone elses view he considers himself to be very good, and has his own views on exactly how much work he needs to do. So in order to create the best preparation you have to manage his problems and use a mixture of persuasion and subterfuge to get him to put his best foot forward. He is difficult to read with a result that he was only about 80% for the Betfair if that. We normally have a benchmark from the King George to start from, but didn't have that this year - hence the Warwick gallop. We went into that knowing he would need it badly, he did had a good blow and has improved a tonne for it.
All I can tell you is that as of this morning we are more than happy with his progress and preparation, but he is still WIP for a a race in three and a half weeks time - we think he will love his spin around Kempton and then we will kick on into his final preparation. There are obviously greater authorities than me who post on this and other forums, who have all sorts of inside information - unfortunately I am not privy to any of it so can only comment on what I see.
No preparation goes in a straight line, if it did we would all be trainers - just work them every other day until fit and then off you go. That is as true for the rest of the intended runners as it is for Imperial - all of them will have thrown in the odd indifferent piece of work during the preparation. I am not sure what the so called experts think they are looking at when they judge work or racecourse gallops, but Warwick and Kempton are about measuring progress and keeping him interested. Most of what has been written is simply nonsense.
Imperial is 10-y-o and his aches, pains and niggles need management. This preparation started the same as every other in that we get him going then assess any areas of concern that need to be addressed. Irrespective of anyone elses view he considers himself to be very good, and has his own views on exactly how much work he needs to do. So in order to create the best preparation you have to manage his problems and use a mixture of persuasion and subterfuge to get him to put his best foot forward. He is difficult to read with a result that he was only about 80% for the Betfair if that. We normally have a benchmark from the King George to start from, but didn't have that this year - hence the Warwick gallop. We went into that knowing he would need it badly, he did had a good blow and has improved a tonne for it.
All I can tell you is that as of this morning we are more than happy with his progress and preparation, but he is still WIP for a a race in three and a half weeks time - we think he will love his spin around Kempton and then we will kick on into his final preparation. There are obviously greater authorities than me who post on this and other forums, who have all sorts of inside information - unfortunately I am not privy to any of it so can only comment on what I see.
As always, thanks Bobby and I hope everything goes well with him from now until 18/03 
Thank god you`re back Bobby.I too see all sorts of stupid comments on here from people who try ro make out they know something when they clearly dont.The hardest thing in racing is keeping horses sound.Pleased to hear that at the moment you`re happy with him.I still have my original IC scarf which i got from the Hollow and will be wearing it again come the day.Good luck to you ,sir.
Many thanks for the update Bobby,great to see you back...and good luck for Chelt, the vast majority of us forumites will be wishing you and IC all the best.
Well said Ian, I suggest the BHB investigate bogus reports like that of Mayweather, im sure they can get his/her address via Betfair so as to once and for all get rid of these idiots
Thanks so much for taking the time to give us the detailed insight Bobby - all got our fingers crossed for you
Really helpful contribution by Bobby Dazzler to clarify the situation.
I'm not sure there are any 'conflicting reports' on this thread. I see understandable anxiety from punters involved or potentially so in the favourite for the GC.It's inevitable and particularly so because it has been reported that a minor injury stopped the KG plan and he has therefore only seen a race track once this season. Clearly Binocular last year is a recent example of how some expert physio can change an interrupted preparation into a successful result.In IC's case the team that know him best seem to need a range of techniques to get him ready. Let's hope it works and he gets there A1.
Given this update I would not touch him at 7/2 ante post. This seems too short imo given the combination of factors.
I'm not sure there are any 'conflicting reports' on this thread. I see understandable anxiety from punters involved or potentially so in the favourite for the GC.It's inevitable and particularly so because it has been reported that a minor injury stopped the KG plan and he has therefore only seen a race track once this season. Clearly Binocular last year is a recent example of how some expert physio can change an interrupted preparation into a successful result.In IC's case the team that know him best seem to need a range of techniques to get him ready. Let's hope it works and he gets there A1.
Given this update I would not touch him at 7/2 ante post. This seems too short imo given the combination of factors.
.if you .beleive. you.ve got the best horse why over run them there is only 1 Gold Cup we all know NTD can get 1 fully ready for the day .Roll on the Festival .....all hail the Commander .....
Imperial Commander was reported to be much more like his old self as he continued the build-up to his defence of the totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup with a gallop before racing at Kempton.
Nigel Twiston-Davies' gelding has raced only once this season, winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but he needed time off with a cut leg and had not really sparkled in another public workout at Warwick.
"He's a different horse, I swear," said jockey Paddy Brennan after he completed an easy circuit of the track just ahead of stablemate Sybarite.
"He felt a million dollars."
Twiston-Davies and Brennan also gave last year's Champion Hurdle runner Khyber Kim a spin with Astracad.
"I was very pleased with both of them," said Twiston-Davies.
"It has been a hard winter and good for them to have a little bit of a blow.
"We didn't ask them anything exceptional, but it was a very good bit of work by both and it will bring them on more than doing a piece of work at home.
"Khyber Kim is the forgotten horse of the Champion Hurdle. If the handicapper is to be believed then we'll finish second."
Nigel Twiston-Davies' gelding has raced only once this season, winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock, but he needed time off with a cut leg and had not really sparkled in another public workout at Warwick.
"He's a different horse, I swear," said jockey Paddy Brennan after he completed an easy circuit of the track just ahead of stablemate Sybarite.
"He felt a million dollars."
Twiston-Davies and Brennan also gave last year's Champion Hurdle runner Khyber Kim a spin with Astracad.
"I was very pleased with both of them," said Twiston-Davies.
"It has been a hard winter and good for them to have a little bit of a blow.
"We didn't ask them anything exceptional, but it was a very good bit of work by both and it will bring them on more than doing a piece of work at home.
"Khyber Kim is the forgotten horse of the Champion Hurdle. If the handicapper is to be believed then we'll finish second."
Hmm NTD must be easily pleased because to my eye IC appeared laboured and didn't look to be in the sort of condition i'd expect to see a horse in less than 3 weeks away from the gold cup, I certainly wouldn't rule him out but I'd be very suprised if he were up to putting in a performance equal to last years effort. Khyber Kim on the other hand looked in great nick.
Got to be between Long Run and Imperial Commander. Maybe Denman can tank on into old age think Kauto was past his best come the KG regardless of pre-race reports.
Now they have intensively schooled Long Run the transformation in his jumping has been tremendous and he is being schooled even more in the run up to the Gold Cup. The jockey is fine if the horses jumping problems are solved and can see him starting a new era amongst the younger horses agree with Henderson this is way his best chance of winning the Gold Cup.
Now they have intensively schooled Long Run the transformation in his jumping has been tremendous and he is being schooled even more in the run up to the Gold Cup. The jockey is fine if the horses jumping problems are solved and can see him starting a new era amongst the younger horses agree with Henderson this is way his best chance of winning the Gold Cup.
Has a 6yr old ever won a GC? technically he's not even 6 until May so even though French bred for Long Run to win this would mean beating soem of the finest chasers in history,it would indeed be a momentous achievement.I think LR would need it very soft and would somehow have to keep his jumping intact under high pressure from the likes of Denman/NC et al.
He basically rogered a good King George field senseless,though an easy 3m over Kempton against a ferocious 3m2f over Chelters are very differnt propositions indeed.
I think it's a year too early for his GC
He basically rogered a good King George field senseless,though an easy 3m over Kempton against a ferocious 3m2f over Chelters are very differnt propositions indeed.
I think it's a year too early for his GC
BonVivvy, I don't think the age thing will prevent LR winning. I do think his obvious weaker form at the track and the strong suspicion that he may need an oxygen tent after the last (as evidenced by him finishing like a drunk up the run-in in last year's RSA Chase) will mean he has very little chance.
As you mention in your excellent write up the other day, the old brigade are still likely to make this a fairly gruesome race. If there was going to be something progress to challenge them then Weapons Amnesty might have done it but we'll probably never know now. I can see them skipping Cheltenham altogether next year with LR and aim him at Aintree.
As you mention in your excellent write up the other day, the old brigade are still likely to make this a fairly gruesome race. If there was going to be something progress to challenge them then Weapons Amnesty might have done it but we'll probably never know now. I can see them skipping Cheltenham altogether next year with LR and aim him at Aintree.
Three five year olds and four six year olds. Going back a few years though. Mill House last one in '63.
It is unknown territory for Long Run as his previous two attempts have been on the Old Course, the New Course is a stiffer test still.
Glad to see Imperial Commander looking a little more workmanlike than at Warwick - agreed with Duke of Marmalade on some concern it's so close to the race and didn't 'sparkle' to my eye. I guess you'd need to trust those who know the horse if you're a supporter and Brennan's body language clearly better than a week or so ago.
As for Long Run I take on board that he has something toprove round cheltenham -I backed him both times. My confidence in him overcoming those runs is that the horse looked a different proposition in the KG. Even on his runs over tracks other than cheltenham he made mistakes.It has taken his time to adjust to british fences and with Yogi Briesner they appear to have improved his jumping.
Cheltenham is different toKempton but he was not stopping and there were plenty of doubters before that race that he was not up to the class. RT has if anything franked the form. Looking at Nicolls after the race I'm not convinced there were any excuses for KS and I can't see him turning the tables. I'm not sure LR needs it very soft either - good jumping gorund would do imo.
As for Long Run I take on board that he has something toprove round cheltenham -I backed him both times. My confidence in him overcoming those runs is that the horse looked a different proposition in the KG. Even on his runs over tracks other than cheltenham he made mistakes.It has taken his time to adjust to british fences and with Yogi Briesner they appear to have improved his jumping.
Cheltenham is different toKempton but he was not stopping and there were plenty of doubters before that race that he was not up to the class. RT has if anything franked the form. Looking at Nicolls after the race I'm not convinced there were any excuses for KS and I can't see him turning the tables. I'm not sure LR needs it very soft either - good jumping gorund would do imo.
Thought Paul Nicholls comments re experience counting in the Gold Cup were misleading. He was trying to raise optimism due to the age of his runners and they may get away with it due to the lack of strength in depth of the other runners. However history shows the opposite is the case and 'age ' is very important as opposed to 'experience' in the Gold Cup.
When there is a good young un in the field like Long Run, especially a wide margin King George winner it is best to side with them if up and coming. Intensive schooling has made him a different horse jumping which will buy him many lengths in the Gold Cup compared to the RSA. I disagreed with Henderson thinking Punchestowns would be a great horse but not this one (as an antepost double with Special Duty the Guineas would testify) pointing out post Festival I couldnt believe Hendersons comments whereby he wasnt being schooled to iron out his problems. Well they have done that closed season and it shows there is nothing caught in the spokes now and the jockey is less important in getting him organised at fences and can guide him around as in the KG.
Reminds me of an early Best Mate, doubts about getting the trip (and Kicking King post his KG re trip). He will get the trip alright and for me is the one they all have to beat .. from now on in any staying chase.
When there is a good young un in the field like Long Run, especially a wide margin King George winner it is best to side with them if up and coming. Intensive schooling has made him a different horse jumping which will buy him many lengths in the Gold Cup compared to the RSA. I disagreed with Henderson thinking Punchestowns would be a great horse but not this one (as an antepost double with Special Duty the Guineas would testify) pointing out post Festival I couldnt believe Hendersons comments whereby he wasnt being schooled to iron out his problems. Well they have done that closed season and it shows there is nothing caught in the spokes now and the jockey is less important in getting him organised at fences and can guide him around as in the KG.
Reminds me of an early Best Mate, doubts about getting the trip (and Kicking King post his KG re trip). He will get the trip alright and for me is the one they all have to beat .. from now on in any staying chase.
I said before the season started he would be overbet and due to his jumping problems would not be value. However they have all but gone and dont mind saying I took the 13/2 which is tremendous value for a wide margin young King George winner amongst an ageing field at Cheltenham. He is tremendous value at 6s.
Eric, I agree with you that they seemed to have ironed out the horses jumping problems. However, do you not think that it will struggle trip wise. Take a look at last years RSA Chase and look at the way it weakened on the run in towards the line (reminiscent of One Man). This year he has an extra 400 metres to cover over a slightly stiffer track and probably a more gruelling pace. Here is the link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4V_ujHbHW24
I think personally he will easily get the trip if jumping ok. Stamina and jumping ability are intertwined in the Gold Cup as demonstrated by Kauto Star who pre his first win was a less likely stayer than Long Run imo. All down to jumping amonst the market leaders but if this one gets around without any I think his engine will take care of the rest. Imperial Commander the biggest danger though Denman might have something to say about that.
Interesting that he can be backed at 4/1 with Billies but only 11/4 with spoil sports
I'm wary this thread is about IC - and I personally think 4s is nearer the mark than 11/4 given still some uncertainty.Regarding L Run...there is some doubt about a true run 3m 2f round chelters but with a jumping rhythm and a less frantic pace (as the ppower) I am hopeful he will b up toit...one thing I've always been impressed with is his engine.
Bear in mind all the same was said in the early days of KS.I backed him when he fell at cheltenham in the QM...better suited by a flat track such as Kempton? Newbury? Did Dawn Run and Dessie hnot have their doubters too as well as One Man Brownes G?
Bear in mind all the same was said in the early days of KS.I backed him when he fell at cheltenham in the QM...better suited by a flat track such as Kempton? Newbury? Did Dawn Run and Dessie hnot have their doubters too as well as One Man Brownes G?
Dawn Run was pretty much a novice but was a one off. Dessie was so far ahead of the oppo he had to fall in at Chelt at some point. Re Long Run, he has demonstrated a disliking for the course and did a One Man near the line. Fine, I hope loads of people keep backing it as I most definitely be laying it, and for a place. One Man was one of my favourites by the way, doesn't it just go to show even trainers sometimes take years to figure out what their horse really wants. If they'd have tried the QM 3 years earlier he could have been a legend.
Horses like One Man and Beef of Salmon needed the Ryanair to be initiated a few years before it was....
Long Run has same sire as Big Buck's (massive engine) and Lacdoudal (last seen winning the Cross Country race in November over 3m 7f).
I also think his two efforts at the course have been perfectly respectable - check out Kauto's Cheltenham record before his first Gold Cup win.
I also think his two efforts at the course have been perfectly respectable - check out Kauto's Cheltenham record before his first Gold Cup win.
I thought Long Run was dead on his feet at the end of the RSA last year, he now has to travel a further 2.5 furlongs and at championship pace I'm not convinced he'll stay.
His backers will point to his fantastic King George win but I've seen confirmed 2 milers get the King George trip, it wouldn't be evidence of his stamina IMO.
Plus there's the pilot....
His backers will point to his fantastic King George win but I've seen confirmed 2 milers get the King George trip, it wouldn't be evidence of his stamina IMO.
Plus there's the pilot....
take the point but it's 2f ain't it not 2.5? We'll see - I have a small interest at 25/1 prior to King George so I guess I am pocket talking!
Rease - to be fair you have an outstanding voucher at 25s
where are you seeing that? I'm seeing 3m 110y for RSA and 3m 2f 110y for Gold Cup on RI database.
regarding long run not staying maybe he wont,but i think he will stay no probs .last year he had had a long season and in the r.s.a he made mistakes and a blunder at a critical stage in the race yet still came there with a chance and imo ran a very good race ...........think he has a massive chance
I can't believe people are milking themselves over Long Run. The only thing people keep pointing to regarding his credentials are his King George win when the race has to be the poorest renewal in years.
Nacarat is a very good yardstick when it comes to Kempton. A 100%, fully fit Nacarat finished 41 lengths behind Kauto Star in last season's King George. He confirmed his well being (and liking for Kempton) by finishing a close second to Razor Royale in the Racing Post Chase and a distance ahead of third place.
Nacarat, to my eye, has regressed slightly this season and in this year's King George he finished only 5 lengths behind Kauto Star. So the only explanation to me is that Kauto Star has dramatically deteriorated which is not inconceivable considering he's an 11 year old French bred (it had to happen sometime). Riverside Thearte would not finish 12 lengths in front of Kauto Star unless the later had gone significantly backwards. Even Albertas Run came out of the race with NTD saying the horse had serious problems.
So what i'm getting to is that this King George victory that has put Long Run into favouritism is worth nothing as far as being a serious Gold Cup contender has got to do with it. Long run has proved he relishes the flat track of Kempton and has also proved that the undulations of Cheltenham bring out the worst in him. He jumps poorly there and as people have already stated by the time the hill comes around he doesn't have enough left to power up it.
For me Long Run is a big place lay for the Gold Cup.
For what it's worth i'd still rate Imperial Commander far ahead of his challengers.
Nacarat is a very good yardstick when it comes to Kempton. A 100%, fully fit Nacarat finished 41 lengths behind Kauto Star in last season's King George. He confirmed his well being (and liking for Kempton) by finishing a close second to Razor Royale in the Racing Post Chase and a distance ahead of third place.
Nacarat, to my eye, has regressed slightly this season and in this year's King George he finished only 5 lengths behind Kauto Star. So the only explanation to me is that Kauto Star has dramatically deteriorated which is not inconceivable considering he's an 11 year old French bred (it had to happen sometime). Riverside Thearte would not finish 12 lengths in front of Kauto Star unless the later had gone significantly backwards. Even Albertas Run came out of the race with NTD saying the horse had serious problems.
So what i'm getting to is that this King George victory that has put Long Run into favouritism is worth nothing as far as being a serious Gold Cup contender has got to do with it. Long run has proved he relishes the flat track of Kempton and has also proved that the undulations of Cheltenham bring out the worst in him. He jumps poorly there and as people have already stated by the time the hill comes around he doesn't have enough left to power up it.
For me Long Run is a big place lay for the Gold Cup.
For what it's worth i'd still rate Imperial Commander far ahead of his challengers.
I meant Jonjo when talking about Albertas Run,not NTD. Apologies.
Ch Enthusiast & B Gazette
I respect your opinions - until he's galloped up the hill 1st we'll not know for sure. ReaseHeath make a good point regarding the influence of cadoudal in LR breeding and if you look at KS from a breeding point of view the influence is mainly up to 2m 4f. BG - it's fine making the point about One Man but I hardly think the 2 horses are similar - One Man was like a rubber ball.
Wit regard to crabbing the KG form - I see no reason why KS could not run up tohis form -maybe he's on the slide formwise. At 11yo (notwithstanding the wind op) I think Denman has something to prove to beat IC after last year. D Harry appears in less good form (trainer's report). If IC is on top form so be it - but Long Run is not the only one to have questions asked andfor me he is one of the few going into the race with confidence in recent form.
I respect your opinions - until he's galloped up the hill 1st we'll not know for sure. ReaseHeath make a good point regarding the influence of cadoudal in LR breeding and if you look at KS from a breeding point of view the influence is mainly up to 2m 4f. BG - it's fine making the point about One Man but I hardly think the 2 horses are similar - One Man was like a rubber ball.
Wit regard to crabbing the KG form - I see no reason why KS could not run up tohis form -maybe he's on the slide formwise. At 11yo (notwithstanding the wind op) I think Denman has something to prove to beat IC after last year. D Harry appears in less good form (trainer's report). If IC is on top form so be it - but Long Run is not the only one to have questions asked andfor me he is one of the few going into the race with confidence in recent form.
Bob,
Best of Luck in getting him there fit & well
Best of Luck in getting him there fit & well
Wonder how he will be campaigned next season. The new young king on the scene would think we will see Imperial more next season as age takes over all too quickly.
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