How many runners in the Gold Cup?

In his post-race interview yesterday Paul Nicholls was certainly talking as if he still intends to run What a Friend. I'd think the Argento run probably convinced Hales to give Neptune Collonges a run.

My SP forcast...

Imperial Commander 5/2
Denman 4/1
Kauto Star 4/1
Diamond Harry 8/1
Long Run 10/1
Midnight Chase 12/1
Pandorama 14/1
Kempes 20/1
Tidal Bay 25/1

...33/1 Bar

If you're backing the 'Big Three' you have to get on before the day! They are all certain to shorten up!

would love some of that 10s long run

If it leathers it down with rain thursday night and through friday. You wont be seeing any of the 14's for pandorama. Then again if it stays dry all week. you wont be seeing it in the line up atal.

Perhaps Riverside Theatre will be supplemented?

no hes stone set for the ryan air

kinkeel will surely have a crack there will be the likes of neptune collonges, carruthers mon mome etc

Working on the basis of good/soft ground and that all those in the first 7-8 in the current market turn up on the day i can't see Long Run starting any bigger than 6-1 on the day

planet of sound???????

kinkell been freshened up for a crack at the champion hurdle before running in the champion chase rev

Stone set? Who said that, thought NH left anything open?

At the risk of upsetting you and your buddy,a question.Do you think that's where RT's run put's Long Run at 10's.I think that's where it would put RT myself.I also think Kauto at 4's in an insult,I saw your public horse theory,but this ain't the Grand National.Denman is the one who will shorten on the day IMO.

You only have to look at the markets..plus ryan air is always valuable experience for the gold cup the year after.

good to hear evra. possibly not the most talented horse ever but the amount of runs he has makes him a superstar. they should try make him the first horse to run in a race every day of the festival

Long Run will not go off at single figure odds, and anyone who's taking his current price is a moron!!

Where's the support going to come from!? Ok, there's a few people on here who believe he's up to the task, but the general consensus is that Cheltenham is not his track, and he's got it all to do to beat three track specialists home! The national newspapers won't put him up, nor will the RP, nor will any tipping lines...the facts are that nothing on paper says he can win the race; some might think he can but they have little or no evidence!

I actually think Kauto Star could go off favourite still, if not clear 2nd favourite, assuming the ground description contains the word good! He'll no doubt be featured on Channel 4, Nicholls will be bullish of his chance, Ruby will say he's never felt better, and the media can't print a bad word about him!

Denman will attract money from his army of followers, including myself, and should it soften up he may go 2nd favourite ahead of Kauto Star...Imperial Commander will attract the inside money if he shows up appearing fit and well; that can be the ONLY concern about the horse at this stage as he hasn't bee seen on a race course since November! All the others will attract a bit of each way support, but nothing of note. Bookies will be happy to stand their price no problem!

dvm , wanted u to know my thoughts r e long run . think u are wide of the mark personaly , i wud be very suprised if long run started bigger than 5's denman apart there a massive negatives the others eg imperial commander been working badly for weeks they took him for a racecourse gallop to freshen him up and for all to see he worked awful! kauto star surely last 12 months form shows he is in decline. diamond harry is a lunatic i wudn't back him with counterfeit, outside long run and denman only other possible for me is midnight chase. the form of long run in the paddy power was outstanding he obviously hasn't the speed for 2 half miles and jumps much better when he can travel which he will b able to do in the gold cup wall thats my imo

re Long Run: Cheltenham form is 33 in two very competitive heats both as a 5yo in his third and fourth starts over fences in UK - the form is not FU.

Price now is about the same (perhaps a little shorter)as the King George, seems about right to me - can't see him drifting to double figures - if he does, I'll be getting on.

Thanks flash bookie! Have I been fooled!? I read Imperial Commander was very impressive on his gallop!?

I do agree with you in some respects, however everyone's got an excuse whenever Kauto Star runs a bad race and im sure they'll all surface again...Gold Cup - Ground went against him. Down Royal - First run back. King George - Found to have an infection. I just think people are so forgiving of this horse they'll plough in regardless!

Diamond Harry is mental, but his record fresh is superb and I think that'll offer plenty of encouragement come the day! Denman will need cut to blunt a number of the others, and Long Run...I dunno, it's a pretty complex one! Personally I hold the opinion that Cheltenham does not suit; he's too good a horse around Kempton for Cheltenham to suit. His two best runs have come in the Feltham and King George...if he's going to win a Gold Cup, he's going to have to improve hugely on his Paddy Power effort! The there's last year's RSA; he appear to settle fine then, just didn't jump well enough and was outstayed by Burton Port up the hill!

It's tricky, I just can't see where the wave of support to hold his price is going to come from. He's not a story horse, he's not yet a public horse, which means he's relying on genuine punters to be with him come the day...I don't know enough that are!

Mon Mone is reported as out for the season.

*Mome (reply to reve's comment above). Sorry.

Long Run will shorten imo. He won the King George and money tends to come for the KG winner in the Gold Cup (it has been the best trial for the GC for some time now). In the KG he humped Kauto Star. He was third last year in a red hot RSA (beaten out of second a short head) and is the highest placed representative of that race running in the GC. Diamond Harry bombed in that RSA so on that line of form should not be shorter than LR (plus Denman ran 11 lb better than Diamond Harry in his last race). LR is also clearly highly progressive. One major subscription tipster has already put up Long Run for the GC. In short, your 10/1 forecast looks both too big and pretty good value.

I do, however, agree that IC, Denman and KS will shorten - there is always money for the champ and there'll be a lot of sentimental money for the other two. There's bound to be good e/w money for Midnight Chase but if he goes off at 12/1 I'll be stunned.

i was talking to mark brisbournes son at southwell recrntly as u may or may not know he is pupil assistant at nickky hendersons .they think long run is improving massively week after week and cud even be 10 lb better come the gold cup than he was boxing day .if this is true the 7/1 e way i got with korals that night seems good enough for me !

You may be right, im just trying to find influences on the market. You make a reasoned argument for Long Run and I don't want to get involved in crabbing his chance, as I say I just doubt the support he'll get other than from the odd shrewd punter! Many on here are quick enough to write off his chance, including myself, I just feel if you back him and he wins you'll be one of a few smart sods who get paid out, while the rest of us are weighing in on different angles! Could be wrong though, I see him opening up at 13/2 and sliding out to the 9/1, 10/1 mark.

Which tipping service put him up out of interest!?

He only price he is now because Waley Cohen riding him, if BG was aboard he be outright fav for sure.
He still to prove he get the 3.2M trip also?

dwn - rather not say on a public forum. Seems unfair to the people who've paid their subscription.

Much as I 100% agree with NW about the jockey,if your looking for your "story",ie media exposure DWM,I think you might find the amateur jock angle is going to sell him to the public.

regarding long runs 2 runs at cheltenham it depends how you interpret them,imo they were very good runs first in the r.s.a chase he made 3 or 4 mistakes and blundered at the 3rd or 4th last (cant remember ,exactly)5yo at the time no experience of cheltenham btn 7l sh  by weapons amnesty & burton port with decent horses behind.......... if he had jumped better he must have been 2nd at the very least ,next race the paddy power over 2.5m good 3rd giving weight to decent handicappers over an inadequat trip ,now hes got  expierence of chelt behind him and improvement almost guaranteed to me he looks overpriced at 13/2 imo.
as flash bookie says, been told long run should  improve 10lb  and jumping improving ,this horse has the potential to be a monster i also took the 7s and am happy and have been topping up at 13/2 hills ,i put in a good word for this horse in my gold cup review thread and nothing has changed my mind since ,sorry tell a lie riverside theatre winning yesterday has strengthend my veiw and i will be off to hills again today to top up

foyles war ' intelligent post make sure if you are backing e way you get a 1/4 odds eachway one of the best eachway bets of the festival imo ! as stated earlier on this thread only danger to me is if denman is at his very very best or if midnight chase keeps up his undenied rapid improvement sadly all the value has gone with this 1 i feel

cheers flash bookie ,i have backed him to win in most of my a.p bets but also have him e/way in a few multiples ,good luck

Strontium - No problem, wasn't aware it was a paid line.

Interesting thoughts re Long Run.

Three other musings:
Firstly, if the Paddy Power GC was at Kempton how far do we think he would have won by? 5+ lengths in my view (certainly hard to see him not winning), indicating how much better a horse he is at Kempton vs Cheltenham. Its hard to be binary and say a horse "does not go" at a track, but some horses are clearly better at some courses than other. e.g. To me, Imperial Commander looks very vulnerable outside Cheltenham (or at least away from LH galloping courses).
There can be no doubt that Long Run is a hugely exciting horse, but for my money Cheltenham is not his ideal track (Kempton clearly is). Incidentally, the 6 y.o. stat would not concern me if i was backing him - v v few have tried.

2nd musing, I have watched last year's RSA several times and I think its quite hard to argue against the assertion that Long Run ran out of puff and didn't really stay.  He was cruising coming down the hill but did not really see out the last 2-3 furlongs as well as the others.  Its possible that he has strengthened up and will stay further as he gets older, but he is only 1 year older and the GC is 1/4 mile further than the RSA, so he needs to stay half a mile plus further than he did last year. I'd view that as unlikely.
Plenty of people will argue that he was not stopping at the end of the King George but history is littered with horses that stayed 3m elsewhere but could not get up the lung bursting hill when it mattered at the end of the gold cup trip - Florida Pearl (and he won the RSA so was found out by the extra 2 furlongs of the GC trip) and One Man to name but two


3rd musing: SWC is a decent jockey but with him not being able to claim in the gold cup i'd argue that he is a 4-5 pound/length handicap for Long Run.
Look at it this way, if Geraghty rode LR, would he win a gold cup by 5+ lengths? In my view he would need to but that superior if he is going to win this GC with SWC on top. SWC is doubtless a decent horseman and has a good tactical brain but not as good as the pros, and he simply can't match the power of the pros in a finish. 
Imagine the scenario - LR leading rounding the home turn with 2 to jump with Imperial Commander, Kauto and denman in close attendance (am salivating typing this!). Has SWC got the strength and power (after 3 miles) to give LR enough help and assistance from the saddle to get his nose in front up the hill? Because you know how hard Brennan, Walsh etc will be booting their mounts home.  The more i think about it the more i feel that SWC will run out of puff (compared with the big boys), so in my view, in order to win the Gold Cup, LR will need to come their cruising and do it fairly easily.  In my view, given the other two considerations above, I'd say that is unlikely.

Not out of the question for Long Run to be challenging for favouritism on the day. IC will probably still be fav. but could yet have another training problem-he is not the easiest to get right. Denman has had a wind op which might improve him but might not. KS just seems to be on the decline. Diamond Harry will get shorter but what else can you fancy?

HR your musings are sound and you may turn out to be correct but would point out the following:

Most would consider Kauto Star in his pomp a good few pounds better around Kempton than Cheltenham - did n't stop him winning two Gold Cups.

Kauto won his first Gold Cup in 2007 on the back of a Cheltenham record that read F in previous year's Champion Chase.

Kauto very, very special animal and Long Run would be going some to emulate him but goes there with better Cheltenham prep than Kauto did before he won for the first time.

Agree Rease. I'd say Kauto won 2 gold cups despite it being run at Cheltenham, not because - much better horse around Kempton but his superiority over the others was such that he still won 2 GCs despite arguably not being that well suited to the course.
Also, in his 2 winning GCs Kauto did not face anything of IC's quality/rating (other than Denman on the comeback trail in 2009).

have enjoyed being part of this thread and just to let u all know ic worked poorly again this morning , well put it this way with very little enthusiasm !

What is your source of this info Flash?
Is Bobby Dazzler around to confirm?

hurricane , i live in bourton on the water and know several that work in the yard

Ruby walsh in his book says that Kauto was more suited to Cheltenham

Long Run at 10/1? No chance

I've read this thread and it's a really well written, well thought out piece about an extremely open race but I'd have to take issue with the person who says Diamond Harry is a lunatic. How can that be? He's top class when fresh, going left handed on soft ground.

I'm not certain he likes Cheltenham that much but can't see how he's a lunatic.

Thanks Booster.
Agree with you re Diamond Harry.
Difficult to write off as clearly better when very fresh but i am not convinced by his attitude up the hill and i do think he is better in soft ground on a flat, staying track like newbury.

Long Run now 7 on here. Still could start favourite if the big hitters latch on to it. There may be up to 16 runners but the short list now surely:
Imperial Commander, Denman, Long Run, Diamond Harry, Kauto Star, Kempes and Midnight Chase in that order.

Long Run is a conundrum.

On the one hand, plenty seem convinced 'he's not a Cheltenham horse' (silly IMO, but there's no point in rehashing the arguments - it's all about what general market perception is and how this will affect his price). Similarly, many will still have doubts about MR S Waley-Cohen as a jock (again, never mind his King George win. I'm purely concerned with GENERAL market perception and its affect on price)

I think 'clever' (for want of a better word) money will come for him however and it's a question of what weight of cash speaks loudest.

Roj. This fella will go off at around 4-1. Hope this helps :)

Hope so!

I'm on at 33's

[;)]

Great thread. Thanks to all the contributors above for their well argued views and info provided.

Clearly there are doubts about all the front four in market (IC apparently not working well, Kauto, age, and unlikely to win if not able to win KG (?), not convinced Chelt GC suits Long Run on grounds of both course and distance (too far?), Denman, age and lingering doubts re his heart trouble). On balance tho' I think I'd take Denman over the others (26lb turnaround with Diamond Harry for 15 1/2 lengths).

In such a year I'm pleased to have Midnight Chase at 25s(ew). Reminds me of Dublin Flyer and the year he ran (DF jumped for fun and loved the course). DF's SP for his GC was 8/1, having been 50/1 in the previous December. Unlike Midnight Chase it transpired that DF didn't stay, but none of the more fancied horses won either.(Mr Mulligan won at 20/1, 2nd Barton Bank 33/1, 3rd Danoli 10/1).

Anyone give Tidal Bay a chance.

I've gone large e/w at 33/1 and can see it picking a few off up the hill.

pick a few he surely will, pick em all... unlikely

I'm hoping like the opening thread states we get 8=10 runners.

Hopefully kato and denman are past there best and don't run their race. Long run hopefully has a bad day at Cheltenham were it hasn't run well before and Imperial who appears to be not working great hits a wall. All these 4 have question marks hanging over them and i can see an outsider winning it this year. Hopefully Tidal is on the premises and can rally up the hill.

harry on the snaff

Thing with Tidal is you just never know what he's going to do. The horse is mental. His recent performances seem to depend on how well his jockey rubs his ears on the way round. I wouldn't bet on him with your money - but at his best he's got real class. And we've seen him storm up the Cheltenham hill before, and we know he finishes strongly (mainly because he does nowt in his races before that nowadays). This could easily be a race where a few (Tidal, Midnight Chase, Synchronised) are picking off beaten horses for a place at the end.

Funny how in the 90s we got big priced winners and yet this century nearly always fancied horses. I have backed Midnight Chase at 30 on here its a speculative value bet as I don't think he is classy enough to win. It really is a conundrom this year, I love Denman and will be backing him (heart ruling head) Imperial Commander did win it easy last year and has had the break, Kauto does not run 2 bad races together if he is spot on then who knows. My head tells me that Long Run wins it though, he looked reallly special in the KG I cannot have it that he does not act around Chelt I think he needs more chances, his run in the PP was very good according to time experts. All in all I do not have a clue, it looks a great race, lets hope the big names get there and come back in one piece.

Long Run is the first horse I'll be laying.
Couldn't stay the 3m in the RSA, gets 3m round Kempton no problem but the King George has a history of specialist 2m horses staying 3m and you couldn't get two more contrasting tracks.
Throw in the pilot and I make Long Run one of worst single figure priced horses to run in the Gold Cup in a long while.
I haven't got a clue what will win it, said for a while it could be a rag as there are chinks in all the front 4, anyone else smell a Nortons Coin ?

I just keep coming back to Long Run but not sure if I can bring myself to back him at Cheltenham

Diamond Harry "not showing same sparkle" - could be another 10% of the book coming out of the market....

bluebird - did you see the finish SWC rode on Oscar Time at Fairyhouse ?
He's a 14lb penalty for the horse IMO

i saw that. held up, good headway between the third last and the last. cruising on bit when poor jump last, no extra

Oscar Time is ready for 1 day, dont think SWC did anything wrong and if he is a 14lb penalty then how good is Long Run 20 lengths better than Kauto at the moment? I dont think so

look at it again

Rode a lovely race to get into contention. Not the speed of first 2. Paul Townend said his ride is bone idle and responded when clallenged. Sam W-C may not be as good as Ruby or AP but he is as good as most professionals.