How many runners in the Gold Cup?

My SP forcast...

Imperial Commander 5/2
Denman 4/1
Kauto Star 4/1
Diamond Harry 8/1
Long Run 10/1
Midnight Chase 12/1
Pandorama 14/1
Kempes 20/1
Tidal Bay 25/1

...33/1 Bar

would love some of that 10s long run

Perhaps Riverside Theatre will be supplemented?

kinkeel will surely have a crack there will be the likes of neptune collonges, carruthers mon mome etc

planet of sound???????

Stone set? Who said that, thought NH left anything open?

You only have to look at the markets..plus ryan air is always valuable experience for the gold cup the year after.

Long Run will not go off at single figure odds, and anyone who's taking his current price is a moron!!

Where's the support going to come from!? Ok, there's a few people on here who believe he's up to the task, but the general consensus is that Cheltenham is not his track, and he's got it all to do to beat three track specialists home! The national newspapers won't put him up, nor will the RP, nor will any tipping lines...the facts are that nothing on paper says he can win the race; some might think he can but they have little or no evidence!

I actually think Kauto Star could go off favourite still, if not clear 2nd favourite, assuming the ground description contains the word good! He'll no doubt be featured on Channel 4, Nicholls will be bullish of his chance, Ruby will say he's never felt better, and the media can't print a bad word about him!

Denman will attract money from his army of followers, including myself, and should it soften up he may go 2nd favourite ahead of Kauto Star...Imperial Commander will attract the inside money if he shows up appearing fit and well; that can be the ONLY concern about the horse at this stage as he hasn't bee seen on a race course since November! All the others will attract a bit of each way support, but nothing of note. Bookies will be happy to stand their price no problem!

re Long Run: Cheltenham form is 33 in two very competitive heats both as a 5yo in his third and fourth starts over fences in UK - the form is not FU.

Price now is about the same (perhaps a little shorter)as the King George, seems about right to me - can't see him drifting to double figures - if he does, I'll be getting on.

Mon Mone is reported as out for the season.

Long Run will shorten imo. He won the King George and money tends to come for the KG winner in the Gold Cup (it has been the best trial for the GC for some time now). In the KG he humped Kauto Star. He was third last year in a red hot RSA (beaten out of second a short head) and is the highest placed representative of that race running in the GC. Diamond Harry bombed in that RSA so on that line of form should not be shorter than LR (plus Denman ran 11 lb better than Diamond Harry in his last race). LR is also clearly highly progressive. One major subscription tipster has already put up Long Run for the GC. In short, your 10/1 forecast looks both too big and pretty good value.

I do, however, agree that IC, Denman and KS will shorten - there is always money for the champ and there'll be a lot of sentimental money for the other two. There's bound to be good e/w money for Midnight Chase but if he goes off at 12/1 I'll be stunned.

You may be right, im just trying to find influences on the market. You make a reasoned argument for Long Run and I don't want to get involved in crabbing his chance, as I say I just doubt the support he'll get other than from the odd shrewd punter! Many on here are quick enough to write off his chance, including myself, I just feel if you back him and he wins you'll be one of a few smart sods who get paid out, while the rest of us are weighing in on different angles! Could be wrong though, I see him opening up at 13/2 and sliding out to the 9/1, 10/1 mark.

Which tipping service put him up out of interest!?

dwn - rather not say on a public forum. Seems unfair to the people who've paid their subscription.

regarding long runs 2 runs at cheltenham it depends how you interpret them,imo they were very good runs first in the r.s.a chase he made 3 or 4 mistakes and blundered at the 3rd or 4th last (cant remember ,exactly)5yo at the time no experience of cheltenham btn 7l sh  by weapons amnesty & burton port with decent horses behind.......... if he had jumped better he must have been 2nd at the very least ,next race the paddy power over 2.5m good 3rd giving weight to decent handicappers over an inadequat trip ,now hes got  expierence of chelt behind him and improvement almost guaranteed to me he looks overpriced at 13/2 imo.
as flash bookie says, been told long run should  improve 10lb  and jumping improving ,this horse has the potential to be a monster i also took the 7s and am happy and have been topping up at 13/2 hills ,i put in a good word for this horse in my gold cup review thread and nothing has changed my mind since ,sorry tell a lie riverside theatre winning yesterday has strengthend my veiw and i will be off to hills again today to top up

cheers flash bookie ,i have backed him to win in most of my a.p bets but also have him e/way in a few multiples ,good luck

Interesting thoughts re Long Run.

Three other musings:
Firstly, if the Paddy Power GC was at Kempton how far do we think he would have won by? 5+ lengths in my view (certainly hard to see him not winning), indicating how much better a horse he is at Kempton vs Cheltenham. Its hard to be binary and say a horse "does not go" at a track, but some horses are clearly better at some courses than other. e.g. To me, Imperial Commander looks very vulnerable outside Cheltenham (or at least away from LH galloping courses).
There can be no doubt that Long Run is a hugely exciting horse, but for my money Cheltenham is not his ideal track (Kempton clearly is). Incidentally, the 6 y.o. stat would not concern me if i was backing him - v v few have tried.

2nd musing, I have watched last year's RSA several times and I think its quite hard to argue against the assertion that Long Run ran out of puff and didn't really stay.  He was cruising coming down the hill but did not really see out the last 2-3 furlongs as well as the others.  Its possible that he has strengthened up and will stay further as he gets older, but he is only 1 year older and the GC is 1/4 mile further than the RSA, so he needs to stay half a mile plus further than he did last year. I'd view that as unlikely.
Plenty of people will argue that he was not stopping at the end of the King George but history is littered with horses that stayed 3m elsewhere but could not get up the lung bursting hill when it mattered at the end of the gold cup trip - Florida Pearl (and he won the RSA so was found out by the extra 2 furlongs of the GC trip) and One Man to name but two


3rd musing: SWC is a decent jockey but with him not being able to claim in the gold cup i'd argue that he is a 4-5 pound/length handicap for Long Run.
Look at it this way, if Geraghty rode LR, would he win a gold cup by 5+ lengths? In my view he would need to but that superior if he is going to win this GC with SWC on top. SWC is doubtless a decent horseman and has a good tactical brain but not as good as the pros, and he simply can't match the power of the pros in a finish. 
Imagine the scenario - LR leading rounding the home turn with 2 to jump with Imperial Commander, Kauto and denman in close attendance (am salivating typing this!). Has SWC got the strength and power (after 3 miles) to give LR enough help and assistance from the saddle to get his nose in front up the hill? Because you know how hard Brennan, Walsh etc will be booting their mounts home.  The more i think about it the more i feel that SWC will run out of puff (compared with the big boys), so in my view, in order to win the Gold Cup, LR will need to come their cruising and do it fairly easily.  In my view, given the other two considerations above, I'd say that is unlikely.

HR your musings are sound and you may turn out to be correct but would point out the following:

Most would consider Kauto Star in his pomp a good few pounds better around Kempton than Cheltenham - did n't stop him winning two Gold Cups.

Kauto won his first Gold Cup in 2007 on the back of a Cheltenham record that read F in previous year's Champion Chase.

Kauto very, very special animal and Long Run would be going some to emulate him but goes there with better Cheltenham prep than Kauto did before he won for the first time.

have enjoyed being part of this thread and just to let u all know ic worked poorly again this morning , well put it this way with very little enthusiasm !

hurricane , i live in bourton on the water and know several that work in the yard