Cheltenham Festival
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How many runners in the Gold Cup?
How many runners in the Gold Cup?
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Replies: 61
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Long Run at 10/1? No chance
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I've read this thread and it's a really well written, well thought out piece about an extremely open race but I'd have to take issue with the person who says Diamond Harry is a lunatic. How can that be? He's top class when fresh, going left handed on soft ground.
I'm not certain he likes Cheltenham that much but can't see how he's a lunatic. |
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Thanks Booster.
Agree with you re Diamond Harry. Difficult to write off as clearly better when very fresh but i am not convinced by his attitude up the hill and i do think he is better in soft ground on a flat, staying track like newbury. |
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Long Run now 7 on here. Still could start favourite if the big hitters latch on to it. There may be up to 16 runners but the short list now surely:
Imperial Commander, Denman, Long Run, Diamond Harry, Kauto Star, Kempes and Midnight Chase in that order. |
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Long Run is a conundrum.
On the one hand, plenty seem convinced 'he's not a Cheltenham horse' (silly IMO, but there's no point in rehashing the arguments - it's all about what general market perception is and how this will affect his price). Similarly, many will still have doubts about MR S Waley-Cohen as a jock (again, never mind his King George win. I'm purely concerned with GENERAL market perception and its affect on price) I think 'clever' (for want of a better word) money will come for him however and it's a question of what weight of cash speaks loudest. |
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Roj. This fella will go off at around 4-1. Hope this helps :)
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Hope so!
I'm on at 33's [;)] |
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Great thread. Thanks to all the contributors above for their well argued views and info provided.
Clearly there are doubts about all the front four in market (IC apparently not working well, Kauto, age, and unlikely to win if not able to win KG (?), not convinced Chelt GC suits Long Run on grounds of both course and distance (too far?), Denman, age and lingering doubts re his heart trouble). On balance tho' I think I'd take Denman over the others (26lb turnaround with Diamond Harry for 15 1/2 lengths). In such a year I'm pleased to have Midnight Chase at 25s(ew). Reminds me of Dublin Flyer and the year he ran (DF jumped for fun and loved the course). DF's SP for his GC was 8/1, having been 50/1 in the previous December. Unlike Midnight Chase it transpired that DF didn't stay, but none of the more fancied horses won either.(Mr Mulligan won at 20/1, 2nd Barton Bank 33/1, 3rd Danoli 10/1). |
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Anyone give Tidal Bay a chance.
I've gone large e/w at 33/1 and can see it picking a few off up the hill. |
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pick a few he surely will, pick em all... unlikely
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I'm hoping like the opening thread states we get 8=10 runners.
Hopefully kato and denman are past there best and don't run their race. Long run hopefully has a bad day at Cheltenham were it hasn't run well before and Imperial who appears to be not working great hits a wall. All these 4 have question marks hanging over them and i can see an outsider winning it this year. Hopefully Tidal is on the premises and can rally up the hill. |
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harry on the snaff
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Thing with Tidal is you just never know what he's going to do. The horse is mental. His recent performances seem to depend on how well his jockey rubs his ears on the way round. I wouldn't bet on him with your money - but at his best he's got real class. And we've seen him storm up the Cheltenham hill before, and we know he finishes strongly (mainly because he does nowt in his races before that nowadays). This could easily be a race where a few (Tidal, Midnight Chase, Synchronised) are picking off beaten horses for a place at the end.
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Funny how in the 90s we got big priced winners and yet this century nearly always fancied horses. I have backed Midnight Chase at 30 on here its a speculative value bet as I don't think he is classy enough to win. It really is a conundrom this year, I love Denman and will be backing him (heart ruling head) Imperial Commander did win it easy last year and has had the break, Kauto does not run 2 bad races together if he is spot on then who knows. My head tells me that Long Run wins it though, he looked reallly special in the KG I cannot have it that he does not act around Chelt I think he needs more chances, his run in the PP was very good according to time experts. All in all I do not have a clue, it looks a great race, lets hope the big names get there and come back in one piece.
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Long Run is the first horse I'll be laying.
Couldn't stay the 3m in the RSA, gets 3m round Kempton no problem but the King George has a history of specialist 2m horses staying 3m and you couldn't get two more contrasting tracks. Throw in the pilot and I make Long Run one of worst single figure priced horses to run in the Gold Cup in a long while. I haven't got a clue what will win it, said for a while it could be a rag as there are chinks in all the front 4, anyone else smell a Nortons Coin ? |
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I just keep coming back to Long Run but not sure if I can bring myself to back him at Cheltenham
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Diamond Harry "not showing same sparkle" - could be another 10% of the book coming out of the market....
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bluebird - did you see the finish SWC rode on Oscar Time at Fairyhouse ?
He's a 14lb penalty for the horse IMO |
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i saw that. held up, good headway between the third last and the last. cruising on bit when poor jump last, no extra
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Oscar Time is ready for 1 day, dont think SWC did anything wrong and if he is a 14lb penalty then how good is Long Run 20 lengths better than Kauto at the moment? I dont think so
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look at it again
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Rode a lovely race to get into contention. Not the speed of first 2. Paul Townend said his ride is bone idle and responded when clallenged. Sam W-C may not be as good as Ruby or AP but he is as good as most professionals.
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