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Hello this is my first post chaps so go easy now, my background is 20years of following horses and losing and winning along the way.Purple patches come along every now and again but rare.
I have been following your forum for last year and you have some great debates and found it interesting and must admit followed some of your judgments and won so thanks.
Ok my first topic is the forth mentioned Henderson hotpot Spirit Son , I was literally blown away by his performance other day for three reasons
1 - won in decent time of a true run race.Hallmark of a horse capable of winning at Cheltenham, yet to see a slow run race ever.With even more improvemnt to come he must be hard to beat on the day providing it is not fast ground
2 - BARRY been sweet on him for months, and get gut feeling they (YARD) don't know how good he is (NOT OF BRIDLE YET).And BG going Exeter the other day confirms this.Him or Sprinter Sacre before race , now its all about SS.
3 - The BG factor - He will surely ride this horse at Cheltenham and rides it better than most.Betting exchanges support this and forecast 4/1 on the day
My personal view for what it matters is i think it will canter all over Cue Card and more to fear from team mate SS.Im on at 8/1 to 20 notes and played again at 7/1 to 20 again, my biggest single bet this festival so far.Doubled it with So Young 7/1 in Neptunes
Would like your opinions
I have been following your forum for last year and you have some great debates and found it interesting and must admit followed some of your judgments and won so thanks.
Ok my first topic is the forth mentioned Henderson hotpot Spirit Son , I was literally blown away by his performance other day for three reasons
1 - won in decent time of a true run race.Hallmark of a horse capable of winning at Cheltenham, yet to see a slow run race ever.With even more improvemnt to come he must be hard to beat on the day providing it is not fast ground
2 - BARRY been sweet on him for months, and get gut feeling they (YARD) don't know how good he is (NOT OF BRIDLE YET).And BG going Exeter the other day confirms this.Him or Sprinter Sacre before race , now its all about SS.
3 - The BG factor - He will surely ride this horse at Cheltenham and rides it better than most.Betting exchanges support this and forecast 4/1 on the day
My personal view for what it matters is i think it will canter all over Cue Card and more to fear from team mate SS.Im on at 8/1 to 20 notes and played again at 7/1 to 20 again, my biggest single bet this festival so far.Doubled it with So Young 7/1 in Neptunes
Would like your opinions
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he looks really really good i would slighty worry about him if it was genuine good ground but who knows he may even improve upon it he literally could be anything but the stable are so strong in this division who knows if he,ll even run or if he maybe even there 2nd string i do think its very important who barry rides
Yes i see BJG and Sprinter team up in what looks a hot little race at Ascot Saturday. That's probably the decider IMO. I have been backing Sprinter all year so I'm just waiting to see what happens. If Barry chooses Spirit Son I will be getting stuck into him on the day.
He looks decent,but after having viewed his 2 runs in the uk,you have to question what he beat.
Personally i think his action suggests he may want cut,hard to see him having the legs of cue card.
We know cue card is officially the best horse in the supreme by a mile,159 is a very high rating for a novice.
It likes the track,grounds not a problem,wins on good and good to soft,its going to be very hard to beat.
Personally i think his action suggests he may want cut,hard to see him having the legs of cue card.
We know cue card is officially the best horse in the supreme by a mile,159 is a very high rating for a novice.
It likes the track,grounds not a problem,wins on good and good to soft,its going to be very hard to beat.
While I like Spirit Son a lot, and have had to back him at the 10's straight after Exeter, I do get the impression that Sprinter Sacre is the apple of their eye. If he smashes in at the weekend, I find it hard to think Barry will get off Sprinter. So I agree, the weekend is very important.
Totally agree about Sprinter being apple of Nicky eye, not sure about BG eye though.Saturday will end speculation, but ill stick with Spirit Son.
I personally think Spirit Son is one of the worst priced horses of the week. 5/1 with Boyles ffs!
Beaten nothing, only got form on soft ground. A HUGE lay imo.
Beaten nothing, only got form on soft ground. A HUGE lay imo.
Ground appalling at Exeter for sure , but PN certainly fancied his with the 12lb concession and he was beat with 4 to jump .
can he beat menorah ?
errr NOOOO as proven last time hence why hes exposed if theres a menorah lurking or a silvianico conti typwe of horse u cant win my freind
errr NOOOO as proven last time hence why hes exposed if theres a menorah lurking or a silvianico conti typwe of horse u cant win my freind
Menorah is 4th fav for the Champion Hurdle, and might end up being the Champion Hurdler. Why would you expect a novice to be beating a horse like him?
Fine if you dont fancy Cue Card, but there isnt a form line in sight that comes anywhere nr what he has achieved. So anyone who thinks he wont win is doing nothing but guessing one of the others might be brilliant.
Fine if you dont fancy Cue Card, but there isnt a form line in sight that comes anywhere nr what he has achieved. So anyone who thinks he wont win is doing nothing but guessing one of the others might be brilliant.
Its hard to take anyone seriously who says Cue Card is exposed - 5 career starts - 3 over hurdles and only been beaten once by the Champion hurdle second favourite, the reigning SN winner, who had won the Greatwood off top weight on is seasonal bow and is unbeaten around Cheltenham
What are ur thoughts on de following??
Cue Card = proven round Cheltenham
Spirit Son = Not
Cue Card = Proven on all Ground
Spirit Son = Not
I can understand people wanting to take Cue Card on at the price but saying he is exposed or his run last time was nt good = just [smiley:crazy]
imo of course
What are ur thoughts on de following??
Cue Card = proven round Cheltenham
Spirit Son = Not
Cue Card = Proven on all Ground
Spirit Son = Not
I can understand people wanting to take Cue Card on at the price but saying he is exposed or his run last time was nt good = just [smiley:crazy]
imo of course
Had the same discussion with the idiot the other day, a quite bizzare and retarded statement to call Cue Card exposed.
Had a feeling he'd been here before Joist.
Probably just fishing. Sign of how far this particular section has fallen unfortunately
Probably just fishing. Sign of how far this particular section has fallen unfortunately
Indeed CCM and the common factor seems to be the late '10 early '11 joining date
will he beat menorah ever = NO
is sprinter sacre or spirit son better than menorah = ? nobody knows thats what im saying take away cue cards last run he could of been anything the best horse evr but he got thrashed thats what makes him exposed
ps i dont even fancy spirit son im using him as an example
answer me this is cue card more vunerable now or before his defeat to menorah
is sprinter sacre or spirit son better than menorah = ? nobody knows thats what im saying take away cue cards last run he could of been anything the best horse evr but he got thrashed thats what makes him exposed
ps i dont even fancy spirit son im using him as an example
answer me this is cue card more vunerable now or before his defeat to menorah
Nightwalker, hi!
I'm going to say hello by telling you that I wouldn't back either of your fancies with stolen money
I can't have Spirit Son, who has beaten nothing of note and done so on soft ground with no Cheltenham experience, when Cue Card is 9/4. To call him "hard to beat" is just a bit strange as well. Hard to beat applies to Cue Card, who seemingly has no chinks in his armour. Think of Dunguib's price this time last year and compare to Cue Card's and weigh up their respective achievments at this point in the season. Cue Card is really good value at 9/4 IMO of course.
And So Young has almost identical question marks- the all important Cheltenham form, question of whether he's actually beaten anything and how he'll act on better ground. If he wasn't Mullins trained then he's a 14/1-16/1 shot IMO, and at 7/1 when you could have had that about Oscar's Well yesterday, it makes little sense to me.
But I obviously wish you the best of luck- I'm wrong all the sodding time so I've probably just taken 20lbs off the back of those two by dismissing them!
I'm going to say hello by telling you that I wouldn't back either of your fancies with stolen money
I can't have Spirit Son, who has beaten nothing of note and done so on soft ground with no Cheltenham experience, when Cue Card is 9/4. To call him "hard to beat" is just a bit strange as well. Hard to beat applies to Cue Card, who seemingly has no chinks in his armour. Think of Dunguib's price this time last year and compare to Cue Card's and weigh up their respective achievments at this point in the season. Cue Card is really good value at 9/4 IMO of course.And So Young has almost identical question marks- the all important Cheltenham form, question of whether he's actually beaten anything and how he'll act on better ground. If he wasn't Mullins trained then he's a 14/1-16/1 shot IMO, and at 7/1 when you could have had that about Oscar's Well yesterday, it makes little sense to me.
But I obviously wish you the best of luck- I'm wrong all the sodding time so I've probably just taken 20lbs off the back of those two by dismissing them!
I've said it before and i'll say it again. Taking the form with Menorah literally comes with a serious health warning.
Alvarado- more vulnerable before IMO. We now know he is a very good novice, more than good enough to win a typical Supreme Novices's. We couldn't be sure of this before his run in the Bula.
Disagree. If Cue Card hadn't run against Menorah and instead had run in a novice hurdle somewhere over the last couple of weeks and won on the bridle he would be a shorter price than he is now. He would still be being considered as a Champion Hurdle horse as well.
If he had done that though MM, he'd be more vulnerable now, no? Because hacking up in a hurdle would tell us nothing we didn't already know. The Bula run told us that he'll be very difficult to beat in March imo.
I do agree with Alvarado in some ways. Everything went Cue Cards way in the Bula and it showed us what level he was at. It looked a very good run but his limit was tested. I think if he was going to improve on that run he would be in the Champion Hurdle but like me his connections don't think he will. I do however feel he is open to improvement over the next couple of years. He could reach Champion Hurdle level but it would be more than a big ask in his novice year. He's not exposed as such but we do know what level he's at at this moment in time. He will prove very difficult to beat but I can't get involved with a short priced favourite who I feel should possibly be suited by further.
I can't see Cue Card being inconvenienced by 2 miles at all; he was travelling like the winner 2 out, I think he was just beaten by a very, very good horse in Menorah with an exceptional turn of foot, defeat by which there is no
shame.
In what way would you say the race all went Cue Card's way?
Take Menorah out of the Bula- what price is Cue Card for the Supreme Novices's, given he's just won arguably the next best 2 mile hurdle race of the season after the Champion?
shame.
In what way would you say the race all went Cue Card's way?
Take Menorah out of the Bula- what price is Cue Card for the Supreme Novices's, given he's just won arguably the next best 2 mile hurdle race of the season after the Champion?
Take Menorah out he would have just beaten effectively a staying novice getting 4lbs and having the run of the race. His unbeaten record might make him shorter but what does that tell you?
A fair point I suppose, however still a greater achievement than anything he is likely to oppose has done.
Great achievement? Stuck his head up in the air and and failed to pick up when asked. That's great form to be taking into one of the toughest hurdle races on the calendar.
The fact is he found nothing when asked for the first time in his life to fight and that is one sure fire sign you should avoid him like the plague.
You get a thoroughly genuine horse like Spirit Son coming at you down the hill and gawd knows what else, no way are you not going to come off the bridle.
A lot better than him eg Binocular found out to their cost that something is going to come at you and the minute something does Cue Card will burst like a balloon.
Would be lovely to think he can canter all over them but even Dunguib who was a street ahead of this horse couldn't do that.
The pace and injections of pace catch out even the best of travellers and you need to be able to quicken off that pace and find plenty reserves to go on and win.
I saw just how much Cue Card has in reserve when pressure is applied and I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.
Spirit Son is not only one classy horse but he looks 100% genuine and has that Cheltenham look about him.
Watching the way BG has been riding him I reckon the plan is a typical Nicky Henderson one. Jump the 3rd last and see you in the weighing room guys. I don't think they will see the way this horse went tbh.
The fact is he found nothing when asked for the first time in his life to fight and that is one sure fire sign you should avoid him like the plague.
You get a thoroughly genuine horse like Spirit Son coming at you down the hill and gawd knows what else, no way are you not going to come off the bridle.
A lot better than him eg Binocular found out to their cost that something is going to come at you and the minute something does Cue Card will burst like a balloon.
Would be lovely to think he can canter all over them but even Dunguib who was a street ahead of this horse couldn't do that.
The pace and injections of pace catch out even the best of travellers and you need to be able to quicken off that pace and find plenty reserves to go on and win.
I saw just how much Cue Card has in reserve when pressure is applied and I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.
Spirit Son is not only one classy horse but he looks 100% genuine and has that Cheltenham look about him.
Watching the way BG has been riding him I reckon the plan is a typical Nicky Henderson one. Jump the 3rd last and see you in the weighing room guys. I don't think they will see the way this horse went tbh.
Would be lovely to think he can canter all over them but even Dunguib who was a street ahead of this horse couldn't do that.
That is a bit harsh on CC Rondetto. The 7yr old Dunguib beaten 2 lengths by 5 year old Menorah off levels last March in the Supreme in his 5th race over hurdles as opposed to....the 4year old Cue Card beaten 4.5 lengths off levels against 5 year old Menorah in the International in his third race over hurdles.
Whatever your views on CC winning the Supreme can not accept on the Menorah formline that Dunguib was a street a head of CC at all.
All about opinions but no need to mug off horses that have done little wrong IMHO.
That is a bit harsh on CC Rondetto. The 7yr old Dunguib beaten 2 lengths by 5 year old Menorah off levels last March in the Supreme in his 5th race over hurdles as opposed to....the 4year old Cue Card beaten 4.5 lengths off levels against 5 year old Menorah in the International in his third race over hurdles.
Whatever your views on CC winning the Supreme can not accept on the Menorah formline that Dunguib was a street a head of CC at all.
All about opinions but no need to mug off horses that have done little wrong IMHO.
Rondetto
I've backed Spirit Son and rate him highly but how you can say he is "100% genuine" puzzles me. Hopefully he is but he hasn't come off the bit yet. We just don't know.
I've backed Spirit Son and rate him highly but how you can say he is "100% genuine" puzzles me. Hopefully he is but he hasn't come off the bit yet. We just don't know.
course we dont,and we have no idea which of Hendersons is rated the best at home as well.
excatly what chance have we got of knowing whos his best if the trainer himself dont know
just read barrys blog i cant see him getting off spirit son for anything else
It was well worth my while to stay over for Exeter on Sunday because I was very impressed with SPIRIT SON in the 2m novice hurdle. He just gets better and better and my job in choosing my ride in the Supreme Novices' is getting harder and harder.
The ground was heavy at Exeter and he coped with it though he didn’t love it because he’s not a big, robust horse but he came alive from the third last. Nice ground would be much more in his favour. If he was the stable’s only entry for the Supreme you’d be happy enough.
It was well worth my while to stay over for Exeter on Sunday because I was very impressed with SPIRIT SON in the 2m novice hurdle. He just gets better and better and my job in choosing my ride in the Supreme Novices' is getting harder and harder.
The ground was heavy at Exeter and he coped with it though he didn’t love it because he’s not a big, robust horse but he came alive from the third last. Nice ground would be much more in his favour. If he was the stable’s only entry for the Supreme you’d be happy enough.
hi Joist
Just my opinion, like how SS finished of a strong run race and no telling how much more to come and connections thought a lot of the second.just hope the hype around the race lives up to all our expectations and gets many of to a flier.
Just my opinion, like how SS finished of a strong run race and no telling how much more to come and connections thought a lot of the second.just hope the hype around the race lives up to all our expectations and gets many of to a flier.
cue cards defeat by menorah cannot be used as a reason to criticise the horse...on the contrary....as a novice he was running all over a strongly fancied horse for the champion itself!!!! yes he then had to race for the first time and menorah went by him, cue card stuck on well after that to the line....a reproduction of that "defeat" will be good enough to win this years supreme cosily!!
The way to the poorhouse is littered with guys who have went in strong on NH's representatives in the SN over the last number of years. Soft ground bridle horse who will face a whole new challenge in a championship race round Cheltenham on goodish ground [;)]
Bullwinkle i agree and disagree with what you saying.Yes it has been littered down years with bridle merchants who didn't act on better ground or faster run race (won there races in slower run ones leading up to festival) and ill own up Ive backed one or two of them (Dunguib last year to name latest).
But in the case of another bridle merchant spirit son -not only was his prep race a fast run affair he still came home on bridle hard held, plus Geraghty has put in his blog yesterday the horse would prefer better ground.
But in the case of another bridle merchant spirit son -not only was his prep race a fast run affair he still came home on bridle hard held, plus Geraghty has put in his blog yesterday the horse would prefer better ground.
u cantdismiss the prospects of hendersons novices just cos hes got a poor record in the races hes the best trainer to get one rady for chelt if the horse is good enough it will win
I got sucked into Oscar Whisky in SN last year and swore never again. The funny thing is the clamour of people backing OW this year for CH - surely he cannot beat Menorah in a 2m championship event at the festival on goodish ground let alone some of the others at the head of the market. See shades of OW in Spirit Son this year hence I'll swerve it thank you very much even though I respect the stable
Oscar Whisky is top class [>o]
Sucked into what may I ask?
Sucked into what may I ask?
rhinestone Joined: 01 Apr 03
Replies: 568 19 Feb 11 12:56
Oscar Whisky is top class
Sucked into what may I ask?
My point was sucked into backing another NH novice in the SN, which I believe he last won with Flown??? OW is a good horse, albeit at a trip in advance of 2m and on soft going. He may turn out to be top class in certain conditions but he was beaten the only time he ran in a Grade 1 race and surely a Grade 1 championship event at 2m around Cheltenham on ground likely to be good/soft at worst will surely not be a race he will be winning
Replies: 568 19 Feb 11 12:56
Oscar Whisky is top class
Sucked into what may I ask?
My point was sucked into backing another NH novice in the SN, which I believe he last won with Flown??? OW is a good horse, albeit at a trip in advance of 2m and on soft going. He may turn out to be top class in certain conditions but he was beaten the only time he ran in a Grade 1 race and surely a Grade 1 championship event at 2m around Cheltenham on ground likely to be good/soft at worst will surely not be a race he will be winning
Sorry I fail to see your argument that Oscar Whisky is definitely better over further than 2 miles? Yes he won over extended 2 and a half at Chelt, but that does not make him exclusively better over further than 2. If Binocular went and won over 3 miles, would that make him better over 3 miles than 2? If you look at the time of OW at Ffos Las you will actually see that it is very good indeed for a prep run. Go back to Hardy Eustace - one of the best 2 milers of our generation, and he won over 2 and a half as a novice. These horses who are able to win over further means they have the excellent attribute of being able to stay well, but does not make them better horses over longer trips. When combined with fluent jumping and pace to travel you end up with a top 2 miler. Also while i agree (considering both horses development), that he may not be able to beat Menorah again, it would be foolish to write him off because of the 4l beating he gave him in the Supreme last year.
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