Cheltenham Festival
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Binocular- A spring horse, the better the weather pre-cheltenham the better his chance. Wouldn't want it too soft.
Peddlers Cross- Strong form and a powerful horse. favourites chance on soft ground.
Menorah- Solid form. Should finish in the places. Capable of stopping when hitting the front, worth laying at odds on in running.
Hurricane fly- A soft ground horse who is highly unlikely to be quick enough on anything but soft going.
Oscar whiskey-Not quick enough over 2m. Would need heavy ground to have a chance.
Overturn- Doesn't jump well enough.
Dunguib,Cue card,Mill chief- Outclassed.
Khyber Kim- Obvious chance if in the form of last year. Unlikely to be in the same form but priced well enough to possibly take a chance.
Peddlers Cross- Strong form and a powerful horse. favourites chance on soft ground.
Menorah- Solid form. Should finish in the places. Capable of stopping when hitting the front, worth laying at odds on in running.
Hurricane fly- A soft ground horse who is highly unlikely to be quick enough on anything but soft going.
Oscar whiskey-Not quick enough over 2m. Would need heavy ground to have a chance.
Overturn- Doesn't jump well enough.
Dunguib,Cue card,Mill chief- Outclassed.
Khyber Kim- Obvious chance if in the form of last year. Unlikely to be in the same form but priced well enough to possibly take a chance.
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the 'mighty' Peddlers Cross...look no further my son..
You should read hurricane fly's form than tell me if he needs soft.
Hurricane fly discounted because it's a soft ground horse but pedlars is given a favourites chance if it comes up soft?[smiley:crazy] Hurricane fly won a group 1 on good ground last year and has no doubt improved a little since last April when it was running its first race for 17 months. The big worry for Hurricane Fly is that it is unproven at Chelts which instantly makes it a no net for me, also I'm not convinced being 2/3 lengths better than Solwhit is enough personally.
I can't see anything touching Binocular personally but it's an easy selection to make. I agree Khyber could be dangerous and after just one run this season it's too early to write him off, however even at his best he needs a bit further to be beating these even at chelts. Walkon could be the value ew.
I can't see anything touching Binocular personally but it's an easy selection to make. I agree Khyber could be dangerous and after just one run this season it's too early to write him off, however even at his best he needs a bit further to be beating these even at chelts. Walkon could be the value ew.
cruise
On good to soft Peddlers Cross still has a strong chance but not a favourites one. whereas on the same ground
Hurricane fly would only have a place chance , I don't think he'll handle the quick early pace on anything
but soft and can see him busting 2 out.
on good ground result
1.Binoculer (held up mid div, jumped well led close home)
2.Menorah (Held up .travelled well to lead at last messed about a bit in front caught close home)
3.Peddlers Cross (pressed leaders, kept on well)
Dist: 1/2,4
On good to soft Peddlers Cross still has a strong chance but not a favourites one. whereas on the same ground
Hurricane fly would only have a place chance , I don't think he'll handle the quick early pace on anything
but soft and can see him busting 2 out.
on good ground result
1.Binoculer (held up mid div, jumped well led close home)
2.Menorah (Held up .travelled well to lead at last messed about a bit in front caught close home)
3.Peddlers Cross (pressed leaders, kept on well)
Dist: 1/2,4
On soft ground
1.Peddlers Cross (always prominent, led 2 out ran on well)
2.Khyber kim (held up progress 3 out ran on never nearer)
3.Menorah (held up travelled well to challenge at the last, one pace )
Dist: 2,3
On good to soft ground I'm not sure what the result would be.
1.Peddlers Cross (always prominent, led 2 out ran on well)
2.Khyber kim (held up progress 3 out ran on never nearer)
3.Menorah (held up travelled well to challenge at the last, one pace )
Dist: 2,3
On good to soft ground I'm not sure what the result would be.
I can't see there ever being good ground at Chelts on the first day. Classe waters for good to soft and if it rains and makes it soft then so be it. If it's good ground the chance of there being more publicity about horses being killed in the front pages and on TV news are massively increased as happened a few years back.
As for you selections, good luck. You certainly seem confident in your opinion which is admirable. It just isn't that simple in reallity.....
You place Menorah higher on gd ground but he has lost 2 out of 3 his races on good (he's only lost 3 races ever). Peddlars can only win on soft yet he beat Binocular, Starluck et al at Newbury on gd this season and won last year at the festival on good.
To be honest it looks really tough this year and I'm struggling to pinpoint my selection at this stage. I do basically agree with you in as far as unless it's really soft I'll probably back Binocular but I can't write off all the horses you have. I won't back H Fly as said earlier cos he's never raced at Chelts but past him I think there are loads in with a chance.
As for you selections, good luck. You certainly seem confident in your opinion which is admirable. It just isn't that simple in reallity.....
You place Menorah higher on gd ground but he has lost 2 out of 3 his races on good (he's only lost 3 races ever). Peddlars can only win on soft yet he beat Binocular, Starluck et al at Newbury on gd this season and won last year at the festival on good.
To be honest it looks really tough this year and I'm struggling to pinpoint my selection at this stage. I do basically agree with you in as far as unless it's really soft I'll probably back Binocular but I can't write off all the horses you have. I won't back H Fly as said earlier cos he's never raced at Chelts but past him I think there are loads in with a chance.
CV's worst nightmare:
1. Mille Chief - Held up well in rear, laughing at rivals 3 out, jockey lighting cigar 2 out, soon well clear, impressive, rider dropped cigar last 120 yds
10
2. Peddlers Cross - Tracked leaders, improved to lead 3 out, soon headed, no extra
1
3. Binocular - Held up mid division, jumped slowly 5th, ridden 2 out, ran on well
1 1/2
4. Overturn - Led at fast pace, jumped well, headed 3 out, no extra
3
5. Hurricane Fly - Held up well in rear, travelled well into third 3 out, ridden 2 out, found nil
5
6. Menorah - Mid division, reminders after 5th, hard ridden before 3 out, no impression
1
7. Starluck - Held up well in rear, headway to track leaders before 3 out, soon ridden, found little
1. Mille Chief - Held up well in rear, laughing at rivals 3 out, jockey lighting cigar 2 out, soon well clear, impressive, rider dropped cigar last 120 yds
10
2. Peddlers Cross - Tracked leaders, improved to lead 3 out, soon headed, no extra
1
3. Binocular - Held up mid division, jumped slowly 5th, ridden 2 out, ran on well
1 1/2
4. Overturn - Led at fast pace, jumped well, headed 3 out, no extra
3
5. Hurricane Fly - Held up well in rear, travelled well into third 3 out, ridden 2 out, found nil
5
6. Menorah - Mid division, reminders after 5th, hard ridden before 3 out, no impression
1
7. Starluck - Held up well in rear, headway to track leaders before 3 out, soon ridden, found little
Menorah remains my most likely winner but I'm bemused by Silviniaco Conti's current price (46).
Beaten 5 lengths by Menorah, giving Menorah 4lbs, last time out. that was only it's 4th race. Clearly gets further than 2 miles and in a searching gallop like you will get on 15th March that is a bonus. Had four races in quick succession and the break can only help. Sired by Dom Alco, just like Grand Crus, if that helps!
OK, probably too inexperienced to win it, but the price does seem quite big. Nicholls only runner in the race, assuming they find something else for Celestial Halo to aim at.
What have I missed?
Beaten 5 lengths by Menorah, giving Menorah 4lbs, last time out. that was only it's 4th race. Clearly gets further than 2 miles and in a searching gallop like you will get on 15th March that is a bonus. Had four races in quick succession and the break can only help. Sired by Dom Alco, just like Grand Crus, if that helps!
OK, probably too inexperienced to win it, but the price does seem quite big. Nicholls only runner in the race, assuming they find something else for Celestial Halo to aim at.
What have I missed?
Peddlers Cross; Always close up- led on run to last- drew clear not extended..remains unbeaten.
UPDATE
I've had a moment of clarity since last posting. Having had a close look at peddlers cross's races on the
video I know feel that he is in a different class to the opposition. He has general pace, tactical pace
a turn of foot and the clincher is he has a massive will to win and once in front does not let anything
past him. A horse like this is very difficult to beat and don't come along very often flat or jumps.
He's massively overpriced and should be nearer evens. The key is to spot these star horses before it
becomes obvious. I'm going to wait for the day and as long as its not fast or heavy and going, I'm putting
my biggest bet on a horse for 3 years .
I've had a moment of clarity since last posting. Having had a close look at peddlers cross's races on the
video I know feel that he is in a different class to the opposition. He has general pace, tactical pace
a turn of foot and the clincher is he has a massive will to win and once in front does not let anything
past him. A horse like this is very difficult to beat and don't come along very often flat or jumps.
He's massively overpriced and should be nearer evens. The key is to spot these star horses before it
becomes obvious. I'm going to wait for the day and as long as its not fast or heavy and going, I'm putting
my biggest bet on a horse for 3 years .
He's massively overpriced and should be nearer evens.
Well done on winning the post of the year award
Well done on winning the post of the year award
You can mock but I think the race will show that he's a class better than these.
Update
Given the forecast ,the champion hurdle looks like being run on the Soft side of good to soft.
This counts against Binocular and enhances Peddlers Cross's chance. If the ground is Genuinely
Soft I think Khyber Kim looks a very good bet to come second to Peddlers Cross, if they'd have
gone faster and the ground was slower last year he would have won.(just the conditions he may well
encounter this year)
Given the forecast ,the champion hurdle looks like being run on the Soft side of good to soft.
This counts against Binocular and enhances Peddlers Cross's chance. If the ground is Genuinely
Soft I think Khyber Kim looks a very good bet to come second to Peddlers Cross, if they'd have
gone faster and the ground was slower last year he would have won.(just the conditions he may well
encounter this year)
To save you all the trouble of watching the race here what's going to happen :
As they come towards the 3rd last Peddlar's Cross has gone to the front quickly followed by Binocular then comes Mille Chief, Dunquib traveling well closely followed by Hurricane Fly. As they Jump that one it's still Peddlar's cross with Binocular now being asked to quicken by Tony McCoy and doing so but Peddlers Cross is going with him and they quickly gone 2 lengths clear of Dunquib and Hurricane Fly, but now Ruby moves through on Hurricane Fly and he's quickly gone into 3rd but up front it's Binocular who jumps the 2nd last in front by a length from Peddler's Cross and Hurricane Fly coming there strongly behind Hurricane Fly Dunguib is still going well and now Menoraha along with Oscar Whisky is being scrubbed along to try and join in. But It's Tony McCoy and Binocular who lead going to the last but Ruby Walsh on Hurrcane Fly looks a huge danger, Ruby still hasn't moved a muscle on him. Now Ruby asks Hurricane Fly to go and win his race and the repsonse is instant Hurricane jumps to the front at the last, gets away from it fast and is stridsing up the Hill, Menoraha from the clouds is now challenging Binocular for 2nd bbut this is all over. Hurricane fly wins the Champion Hurdle, Menorah is a gallant 2nd and Dunguib runs on to take third with Binocular only 4th. Move over Peter O'Sullivan
As they come towards the 3rd last Peddlar's Cross has gone to the front quickly followed by Binocular then comes Mille Chief, Dunquib traveling well closely followed by Hurricane Fly. As they Jump that one it's still Peddlar's cross with Binocular now being asked to quicken by Tony McCoy and doing so but Peddlers Cross is going with him and they quickly gone 2 lengths clear of Dunquib and Hurricane Fly, but now Ruby moves through on Hurricane Fly and he's quickly gone into 3rd but up front it's Binocular who jumps the 2nd last in front by a length from Peddler's Cross and Hurricane Fly coming there strongly behind Hurricane Fly Dunguib is still going well and now Menoraha along with Oscar Whisky is being scrubbed along to try and join in. But It's Tony McCoy and Binocular who lead going to the last but Ruby Walsh on Hurrcane Fly looks a huge danger, Ruby still hasn't moved a muscle on him. Now Ruby asks Hurricane Fly to go and win his race and the repsonse is instant Hurricane jumps to the front at the last, gets away from it fast and is stridsing up the Hill, Menoraha from the clouds is now challenging Binocular for 2nd bbut this is all over. Hurricane fly wins the Champion Hurdle, Menorah is a gallant 2nd and Dunguib runs on to take third with Binocular only 4th. Move over Peter O'Sullivan
wide open race, only horse at fro nt end of the market i cant have is hurricane fly.all he does is beat solwit who would have next to no chance in the race.the rest of the irish hurdlers are carp.
Baracouda - it appears you missed his last run when he ran no kind of race and was miles behind Mille Chief.
Must agree with all that 'tinkler' has said about Peddlars - the one thing he missed is that because this horse is unbeaten (against the best), it could be that he's just in front of these ...or way in front of these.
Binocular may be a spring horse, but 13/2 for an unbeaten horse that beat him on good going, is massively overpriced
Binocular may be a spring horse, but 13/2 for an unbeaten horse that beat him on good going, is massively overpriced
Interesting Cheltenham stats Article............
It was a remark by Tony Mullins at a pre-Cheltenham evening in 2003 that got me first to thinking about pedigree in the context of Cheltenham.
Asked about the chances of Champion Hurdle favourite Rhinestone Cowboy, he drew much mirth from the audience when he labelled the progeny of Be My Native "hill detectors", and purely on that basis dismissed the hopes of one of the Festival's bankers.
That Rhinestone Cowboy came under pressure early and plugged on to finish only a remote and never-threatening 14 lengths third to Rooster Booster soon became a fact of history. Further evidence suggests that whatever qualities the prolific sire endowed to his often talented offspring, the love of Cheltenham (or hills for that matter) was never one of them.
There are many lenses through which Cheltenham's leading contenders will be scrutinised during the current lead-in -- from form to ground conditions to speed figures to 10-year trends to tea-leaves -- but very little will be written about pedigree.
And as we started with a Mullins and the Champion Hurdle: how relevant is it to the chances of Hurricane Fly that Montjeu has never bred a winner from 44 runners at Cheltenham?
I'm sure Coolmore aren't losing sleep about a stallion that has already produced the likes of Hurricane Run, Authorized, Fame And Glory and Motivator but a glaring omission on his CV remains a Cheltenham first.
A high-profile (if isolated) example of a Montjeu Cheltenham failure is the fate of Mountain.
Rated 112 on the Flat with Aidan O'Brien, he won his novice hurdle in February at Sandown for Jonjo O'Neill and started just 8/1 in a field of 23 for the 2007 Triumph Hurdle only to pull up.
The other prominent Montjeu son at this year's Festival is Jewson favourite Noble Prince. Both Noble Prince and Hurricane Fly unsurprisingly have in common a devastating turn of foot but will that asset really be tailored to Prestbury Park?
By contrast, another son of Sadler's Wells, King's Theatre, seems to be in love with the Cotswold air. He boasts a 19 per cent (4/21) win-to-run ratio during the last five festivals aided by Menorah and Cue Card hitting the target last year.
With both appearing again this year, King's Theatre's record could be further enhanced.
In addition, Riverside Theatre
, Captain Chris and The Minack are just a few more that could easily add to the tally.
Flemensfirth's big moment came with Imperial Commander's Gold Cup win and while his Festival win-to-run ratio is 14 per cent, his top-three strike rate is an impressive 36 per cent (13/36).
Tidal Bay's Cheltenham record is a galloping advertisement for the sire and the fact that he has high-profile RSA favourite Time For Rupert as another leading representative this time round can only offer encouragement.
Furthermore, as all three aforementioned staying chasers have already demonstrated their aptitude for the uniqueness of Cheltenham, it can only offer encouragement to supporters of Pandorama which will be making his debut there.
Presenting is interesting as a sire in the Cheltenham context. As a proven influence for stamina whose progeny tend to excel over fences rather than hurdles (sire of Denman and War Of Attrition), he has recorded six winners from 40 runners (15 per cent) over the larger obstacles during the last five Festivals.
However, all six winners came over three miles or further (contested by only 19 runners) -- so the strike rate over that distance increased to 32 per cent-- whilst a further four of the 19 challengers finished placed, increasing the win-or-place ratio to 10/19 or 53 per cent.
This all augurs well for Jessie's Dream which is stepping up in trip to three miles for the first time, but doesn't bode well for Woolcombe Folly (two-mile Champion Chase) which coincidentally suffered his only defeat over fences over course and distance last year.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS RON
It was a remark by Tony Mullins at a pre-Cheltenham evening in 2003 that got me first to thinking about pedigree in the context of Cheltenham.
Asked about the chances of Champion Hurdle favourite Rhinestone Cowboy, he drew much mirth from the audience when he labelled the progeny of Be My Native "hill detectors", and purely on that basis dismissed the hopes of one of the Festival's bankers.
That Rhinestone Cowboy came under pressure early and plugged on to finish only a remote and never-threatening 14 lengths third to Rooster Booster soon became a fact of history. Further evidence suggests that whatever qualities the prolific sire endowed to his often talented offspring, the love of Cheltenham (or hills for that matter) was never one of them.
There are many lenses through which Cheltenham's leading contenders will be scrutinised during the current lead-in -- from form to ground conditions to speed figures to 10-year trends to tea-leaves -- but very little will be written about pedigree.
And as we started with a Mullins and the Champion Hurdle: how relevant is it to the chances of Hurricane Fly that Montjeu has never bred a winner from 44 runners at Cheltenham?
I'm sure Coolmore aren't losing sleep about a stallion that has already produced the likes of Hurricane Run, Authorized, Fame And Glory and Motivator but a glaring omission on his CV remains a Cheltenham first.
A high-profile (if isolated) example of a Montjeu Cheltenham failure is the fate of Mountain.
Rated 112 on the Flat with Aidan O'Brien, he won his novice hurdle in February at Sandown for Jonjo O'Neill and started just 8/1 in a field of 23 for the 2007 Triumph Hurdle only to pull up.
The other prominent Montjeu son at this year's Festival is Jewson favourite Noble Prince. Both Noble Prince and Hurricane Fly unsurprisingly have in common a devastating turn of foot but will that asset really be tailored to Prestbury Park?
By contrast, another son of Sadler's Wells, King's Theatre, seems to be in love with the Cotswold air. He boasts a 19 per cent (4/21) win-to-run ratio during the last five festivals aided by Menorah and Cue Card hitting the target last year.
With both appearing again this year, King's Theatre's record could be further enhanced.
In addition, Riverside Theatre
, Captain Chris and The Minack are just a few more that could easily add to the tally.Flemensfirth's big moment came with Imperial Commander's Gold Cup win and while his Festival win-to-run ratio is 14 per cent, his top-three strike rate is an impressive 36 per cent (13/36).
Tidal Bay's Cheltenham record is a galloping advertisement for the sire and the fact that he has high-profile RSA favourite Time For Rupert as another leading representative this time round can only offer encouragement.
Furthermore, as all three aforementioned staying chasers have already demonstrated their aptitude for the uniqueness of Cheltenham, it can only offer encouragement to supporters of Pandorama which will be making his debut there.
Presenting is interesting as a sire in the Cheltenham context. As a proven influence for stamina whose progeny tend to excel over fences rather than hurdles (sire of Denman and War Of Attrition), he has recorded six winners from 40 runners (15 per cent) over the larger obstacles during the last five Festivals.
However, all six winners came over three miles or further (contested by only 19 runners) -- so the strike rate over that distance increased to 32 per cent-- whilst a further four of the 19 challengers finished placed, increasing the win-or-place ratio to 10/19 or 53 per cent.
This all augurs well for Jessie's Dream which is stepping up in trip to three miles for the first time, but doesn't bode well for Woolcombe Folly (two-mile Champion Chase) which coincidentally suffered his only defeat over fences over course and distance last year.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS RON
Apart from Jonjo not fancying Rhinestone Cowboy one tiny little bit for the Champion Hurdle?
It certainly doesn't help Hurricane Fly's chances ..
Archive never sired any Cheltenham winners before out popped Arkle and there's always one to break the mold like master Minded when he won the QMCC or Kauto when he became the first first ever to regain the Gold Cup.
Very much a case of I may look like my brother and walk like my brother but I am not my brother and I think Hurricane Fly could be one of a kind.
For me he has shown absolutely no signs that anything bothers him and am pretty sure he'll have no idea about those startistice when Ruby (Hopefully) says go.
I am please to hear Pandorama gets a plus I do fancy him running a big race but to be honest I never let statistics influence me because horses are individuals and as I said there's always one who will break the mold.
It certainly doesn't help Hurricane Fly's chances ..
Archive never sired any Cheltenham winners before out popped Arkle and there's always one to break the mold like master Minded when he won the QMCC or Kauto when he became the first first ever to regain the Gold Cup.
Very much a case of I may look like my brother and walk like my brother but I am not my brother and I think Hurricane Fly could be one of a kind.
For me he has shown absolutely no signs that anything bothers him and am pretty sure he'll have no idea about those startistice when Ruby (Hopefully) says go.
I am please to hear Pandorama gets a plus I do fancy him running a big race but to be honest I never let statistics influence me because horses are individuals and as I said there's always one who will break the mold.
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