Cheltenham Festival
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Can anyone persuade me NOT to back Imperial Commander in the GC?
Can anyone persuade me NOT to back Imperial Commander in the GC?
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You have to know their price Steeple, with their price you can see what % chance of winning they were priced up at. Then you can see how well different age groups faired when compared to the chances they were given pre race.
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- unless you know how many of each age have run in each race and, arguably, their price, age 'stats' are absolutely pointless,
CV, extract from my post timed 22.47 |
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You said arguably, I say you must know, the price of the horse is as vital as the number of horses.
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The stats are also meaningless if the weight for age scale changes as it has in the Arkle. 5yo's had a good record for a while but they changed the wfa and now thay are at a disadvantage imo.
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You said arguably, I say you must know, the price of the horse is as vital as the number of horses.
Although I said 'arguably, I'd argue that it doesn't necessarily mean 'arguably' in the literal sense. Would you argue with that? |
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Great Thread Bonvivvy!
See my post on "gold cup review" thread. Have done some work on the much repeated 10 year old stat. By my reckoning there have been 2 serious contenders aged 10 plus in the last 10 years, and 2 other short priced horses in that age bracket. The 2 serious contenders were Denman and Kauto. Kauto fell when odds on fav Denman was 2nd to a top class performer (IC) - 23 lengths clear of the rest! The 2 other credible contenders aged 10+ (from over 30 runners) were beef or salmon (how on earth did he go off 4/1 given his atrocious cheltenham form!?) and looks like trouble (2nd run back following more than a season on the sidelines,, having won egg and spoon prep race). In hindsight then i don't think either BoS or LLT go very far towards proving the negative 10 yo stat, so its not that great a concern for me given Imperial Commander's cheltenham form (which, excluding the run in which he went "wrong" reads 111111), and his record off a 60 day+ break (111211 - with the "2" being the "dead heat" with kauto at haydock in 2009). Given the doubts about the others (see my gold cup review thread) and IC's course record and record when fresh, I think he is a knock out bet at 4/1... |
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There are a couplle of interesting points in this thread.
Firstly, that when IC beat Denman last year, there was a gap of 23 lengths to the 3rd placed horse. For IC, this was a performance not to be underestimated, especially as Denman went on to carry 11:12 into 3rd place in the Hennessey GC last November. Secondly, since L'escargot, Best Mate is the only horse to retain the Gold Cup in nearly 40 years and he did it twice - yet he only ever acheived an Official Rating of 175 which makes him a 4lb inferior horse to Long Run. This is the same Long Run that was beaten off OR158 in the Paddy Power last Nov. I cannot see a horse capable of beating IC in the race on known form. And given that form, were his name Kauto Star or Denman then his odds would not be 7/2 - they'd be more like 9/4, or maybe even shorter. |
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You could argue either.
That the use of "arguably" could mean the literal sense, "it may be argued (used to qualify the statement of opinion or belief)" or that "arguably" was more a use to mask a statement of fact, without drawing an unnecessary challenge to the statement, which would cause the discussion to diverge from the original topic. That a case can be made for either I will take you at your word and desist with this inquiry. |
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CVB, I didn't expect a response as that was my weak attempt at being Pythonesque - but yours was a good one!
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 Though i'd love to have the last 20 years of gold cup runners, age and sp in a spreadsheet. Being a mathematician I could get you a prefect analysis. Where would I get this data? |
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Just watched last years race again, forgot quite how impressive IC was
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CV and Steeple,
you ok?? |
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Nah, Bud, we've both lost it, I think
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gets to yer this Cheltenham lark!! |
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mite not b very helpful in trying you to stop bking imperialcommander bt happy menories
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joBgjuM_kRA |
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Love it - had not seen this!
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Yes he's 10. Id love him to win again for my old mate Pete from Warrington one of the 8 owners but i think he's booked for a place at best
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wont win imo. one season wonder, save your cash or lay.
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IC is still great value because he isnt a cheltenham flash in the pan and has won time after time at HQ. If he had rocked up for the first time and won then fine may think one year only but too much going for him relative to the other top 5 in the betting. Why would Denman or Kauto beat him? i simply cannot see it bar a fall......still like Midnight though
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