gold cup review

I don't often agree with CVByrne, and I have never understood why he hasn't gone to another forum after his "all the best people have gone" quote, but I think he's right here...

...what use is someone posting about Long Run's chance in the Gold Cup! Anyone who knows anything about racing knows he has two chances in the race; slim and no! I can only think people post such nonsense to rile the likes of CV, and while it is tempting to poke him with a stick given he bites EVERY time, it's not overly insightful!

I've never been ante-Kauto in my life.
I will post whenever I like and on whatever subject - whether you want to read it or ignore it is your choice, so don't try your bully-boy tactics on me, CVByrne.

I despise prejudice, and to totally ridicule someone's opinion just because they have only just joined Betfair is the same as being racist or sexist. It has no logic.

I know several people who wager over £1,000 a bet who are not members of Betfair - in one case an Englishman who lives in the States but comes to the Cheltenham Festival every March, and last March had a £20,000 wager on-course on Kauto Star. During the course of that meeting, he placed wagers of about £100,000.
Using your logic, his opinion is worthless - do me a favour.

The reason this forum flounders is because people like you jump in with crass one-liners before any worthwhile debate can get going.

I don't think Long Run can win the Gold Cup next month, but there are plenty of people who do. By listening to the reasoning behind their opinion, I can form my own judgement on how to play the Gold Cup market. As such, this forum is a valuable weapon for us all to be able to access and use to our benefit.

So please, don't abuse it - cherish it and welcome contributions from all-comers.

Look this is the time of the year where we get good insight and debate on the  races. I've minimal bets on the gold cup and will be in a good laying position with my champion hurdle bets. Other peoples views and opinions can help in making the right bets for the festival.

My problem is sifting through the useless drivel, take the champion hurdle thread, we've got great debate on there. The kind of discussion I was hoping  for when I started it. But there is the likes of denman85, who I blocked some time ago, cluttering it up.

I have plenty of time and respect for people who contribute even if I disagree with them. I have no time for pointless  fools.

Less of the put downs CV - everyone is entitled to an opinion and that is why i come onto this forum (to read opinion), so please lets not clog it up with bitchiness.

Onto a more important matter, have been giving some thought to the all important "10 year old" stat that has been and will no doubt be trotted out countless times between now and 18th March. For those that are not aware - over the last 10 renewals there have been over 30 ten+ year old runners in the gold cup and only 3 have been placed, so its seen as a real negative trend.

I have done some of my own digging into this and its quite revealing to see just how many of those 30+ runners have been outsiders/no hopers/decent horses in their twilight years (as indicated by the betting).
Take out kauto and denman in 2010 (both were 10 - kauto obvy fell when odds on and, if IC had not run, denman would have won by 23 lengths!)
The next really good 10 year old at the front of the market to get beaten was beef or salmon in 2006 (4/1) - and we all know what his cheltenham record was like...

Beyond that we go back to Looks Like Trouble in 2002 (beaten miles when 9/2 favourite) - and he was the 2000 RSA winner but came into the 2002 GC with only one mediocre comeback run under his belt following a 14 month layoff for injury. Hard to tell if he bounced or just wasn't the same horse after his absence. - Again, hardly conclusive evidence against the older brigade.

You probably know what a fan of IC i am (have had largest ever bet at 4/1 NRNB), but on the basis of the last 10 years i think its very hard to point to concrete evidence for the negative 10yo stat - in hindsight there have been very few with decent chances.

Assuming goodish ground on the Friday i am really struggling to put up one to beat IC if he runs to within a few pounds of what he achieved last year:

Long Run - much better on flat tracks - can't shorten into his fences which is a big -ve for me and to these eyes he ran out of steam in the RSA last year. SWC is a v decent amateur but LR will start with a 5 lbs handicap - he just won't have as much power in a finish.

Diamond Harry - prob needs softish ground and has never convinced me with his attitude up the hill at HQ (great on a flat track)

Denman - fabulous horse but i find it hard to see him reversing form with IC as 11 yo

Pandorama - on the upgrade but imo unlikely to get the deep ground he needs (doubtful runner?)

Punchestowns - no chance after his run in the pillar

Joncol - trip? Ground? Can't see such an enormous horse enjoy coming down the hill either...

Pride of Dulcote - a possible danger but almost asking the impossible given we are 5 weeks out and he has run only twice over fences...

Weapon's amnesty and burtons port - would have been worried about both but no need now

Which brings me to kauto - the greatest since i don't know when but i am pretty convinced his best years are behind him and suspect he'll find one or two too good this time, but run honourably in defeat. If he won i'd roar the house down (despite doing my nuts on IC), it would be amazing.

Other than these i am struggling to see where the dangers are...
Odds of 4/1 imply a 1 in 5 chance of winning for IC and i just think its too big.

As always, interested in your musings!

I'd agree Imperial Commander looks the likeliest winner to me. Those dismissing Long Run yet thinking Kauto can win need only look at the last 5 KG's to see that Kauto is done or Long Run is very very good. If Kauto bled then why ? Never happened before and a deeply worrying development. The infection I'm not buying that. Nichols is a good trainer but he's also a bad loser. Kauto was there primed to the minute and got thrashed. Long Run is now six last season he was on the go forever before the RSA got minial allowance for being five and has improved this year, stronger, jumping better and his jockey is learning about him.

Denman for me is more likely of the Nichols pair to be invovled. Pandorama is a real dark one and I think he'll be ok as long as there is a little give. Diamond Harry is also pitching but I'm just not convinced and just as an offshoot how far did Long Run beat Diamond Harry last year in the RSA yet only 2 points different in the betting.

The Commander for me to win again but if Long Run shuts up the doubters I'll be smiling from ear to ear.

i am ignoring the age stat myself as i honestly feel that IC,Denman and Kauto are still ahead of the rest over this course and distance.
i have Denman at 15,so i can back IC on the day,and i think i will have the winner.Not so sure about KS,but if the price is tempting on the day i might even back him as well.

I think some people need to understand the concept of opinion.

I have noticed lately that people are getting slammed on here because they can't offer a 16 paragraph explanation of a point they've made.

I have opinions, and a lot of the reasoning behind them are 'I just have a feeling!'

Now I absolutely appreciate that this reasoning is not insightful at all, but at the end of the day I will not take advice off anyone on here; I have never, and will never back anything as a result of what someone has said on here, which is why I prefer the more light hearted debates such as 'What is you nap of the Festival?' What is your Festival Yankee/Lucky 15?' For me these are the topics which make this forum what it is; a group of people who all like a punt, spouting off their opinions on a wide range of subjects.

I for one am not after detailed reasoning, in depth analysis, or anything in relation, I just come on here to see what everyone's backing, and if I have a different opinion, try and spark up a bit of banter in much the same way I would with my mates down the pub!

I have a work colleague who's convinced Medermit will win the Arkle; I am convinced Finians Rainbow will win it. We don't sit there in hard debate questioning the merits of each horse, we jab at each other throughout the day belittling each other's chance! In my opinion, the day all the f**kers on here who are arrogant enough to honestly believe they have an opinion others should take note off p**s off somewhere else, the better this forum will become!

That said; I still agree with CVByrne, because the arrogant lot should be allowed to enjoy the forum in their own way, and so unless you have something reasoned you want to say, keep out of certain threads, and like me enjoy the pure opinionated and speculation ones, because if we ignore them, they'll ignore us, and not raise their ugly heads to belittle everyone at every opportunity.

As I said I respect opinions that are given as opinions. I give no respect to, telling people the "facts" kind of arrogant post.

I contribute to plenty of worthwhile debate on here and value plenty of other peoples views. There are people I disagree with or have arguments with, but I still respect their views because they are contributers and have contributed for years.

I simply don't suffer the tripe posted by many, usually blow ins thanks to Paul Nicholls blog. I'm not going to suffer it. I have my group of posters who I'm here to discuss racing with, any new posters are welcome to join the debate and earn respect. It's simple.

Absolutely, could not agree more. I stay out of many of the heavy subjects because I wouldn't feel confident enough that I could back up everything I had to say, and I know now that that's what you guys are after, detailed, in depth discussion, backed up with tangible reasoning.

That's not for me, and I don't understand why everyone feels the need to post their opinions everywhere. There are the fluffy topics if you like for people like me who just want a bit of banter. Leave the serious stuff to those who can earn your respect.

An opinion is an opinion and should be treated as such!Afterall ratings are constantly thrown into these debates and they are of course only an opinion.
For what its worth I hope Kauto dosen't run in the GC.I dont want to see his stamina stretched to the limit again at his age, and a doubt about his health, just to appease the inflated egos of owner and trainer
Pride of Dulcote win and place for me at this stage

This is only an opinion, but after the disappointing run of Punchestowns, I couldn't have Pride of Dulcote at double the price he is now!!

Where is the pace likely to come from in the GC this year?

Carruthers?

Midnight Chase, with plenty of support from Denman.

diamond harry and midnight chase id imagine

Diamond Harry won't be up with the pace, they'll employ the same tactics they did for the Hennessey!

Carruthers has made the running the last two years so no reason to think he won't do again!

DH was never far away in the hennessey as i remember it.

Hardly made the running though! We're talking about who will go off two lengths in front...that won't be Diamond Harry!! Carruthers will lead up Denman and Midnight Chase, Imperial Commander tucked in behind with Kauto and Diamond Harry following his through.

*him

Few horses like to ride up with the pace,   Denman, Kauto, Imperial, Diamond Harry, Cooldine.

While Midnight Chase, Neptune and Carruthers will make it.

Pandorama is ridden off the piece so will have less traffic and stays all day. I am really liking him for this as long as it isn't too quick.

*pace, not piece

Agree about Neptune making it,would think up to the point when Sam Thomas pushes Denman on,then watch them fall off the back one by one,unti we have Denman ,IC and Kauto left.Then its a case of who is still up to it when it matters!!
Expect a couple to come off the pace,probably Tidal Bay and Pandorama.

Easy aint it??

Pando wins.

It's that easy

I'll be furious if Pandorama wins; backed him the day he didn't run at Down Royal, backed him in the Hennessey, didn't back him in the Lexus, and then fancied him for the Gold Cup until his setback! I've convinced myself he's as soft as the ground he needs!

Will Sam Thomas ride Denman properly do we think? Just off the pace and take it up as they approach the second circuit? Set the race up for Imperial Commander last year, surely they'll want him setting it relentless upfront again like in '08?

A few obvious facts about previous GC winners I have found are;

1/ Last 11 winners had all won a grade 1
2/ Last 11 winners had all run in that seasons King George or Lexus
3/ Last 13 winners had run at a previous festival. 11 had won or placed. Kauto Star fell and see more Business was Carried out.

fwiw, I was'nt convinced bout last season's GC, reckon the handicapper, as he has on other occassions with other horses in recent seasons, has over-reacted. IC is a good horse and runs very well when fresh, but thats my opinion.

I'm on Planet of Sound @ 100 win and 20 place. Ticks a lot of boxes.

denman didnt run in the lexus / king george did he?

He won the Lexus.

in the same season he won the gc?

Yeah. Hennessey, Lexus, AON, Gold Cup.

oh right

He most certainly did win the Lexus, I had to get 3 people to help me carry the money to the track to lump on him. What a hero of a horse Denners is.

be even more of a hero in a few weeks[;)]

With all the problems he's had, and all the knocks he gets, I think he'd be the most emotional winner of this year's Gold Cup! Him or Kauto certainly! Would LOVE to see it!

I'd love nothing more than to see either of the old warriors win the gold cup at 11. It would rank as a special moment in racing history. Hell while we're at it a dead heat 15l clear of the field

Perfect! Retired immediately and both parade up and down the hill in front of their adoring crowd!

the stuff of dreams!!

I'd give anything for that to happen.

I'd love to see Kauto win but think Denman has a far better chance of making the frame

I'd take either to win and the other to finish a gallant 2nd!! Would love to see them put the younger horses in their place just one last time!!

On soft ground it's not impossible Denman could win,lets not forget he only lost out at the last fence and run in to Imperial last year and after his Hennessey (his best ever Hennessey technically)he's shown there seem to be no signs of decline.I've got 9's on the old warrior which i think is a very nice price as i'd say his true chances are around 5-6/1.He never had lightning pace to lose (age wise)though i fee he absoloutley needs cut in the ground and a war of attrition to win.

KS is still a very live challenger as his last race did show an infection and if he hadn't demolished the 2nd last would of been a lot closer as i believe he was starting to stay on.People forget that KS will always always be prone to jumping errors on a track like chelters if the ground isnt ideal and the pace is hot upfront.
He is still capable of winning without a doubt but i have a nagging feeling that the 11yr old french bred with plenty of miles on the clock may JUST have lost his change of pace(not an unreasonable assumption with a well raced french 11yo) At this level that could be crucial.

One small point often ovcerlooked in Denman's 2008 win was how well KS stayed on after being "miles away" once Denman broke away,KS can knuckle down and graft with best of them and woe betide anyone who underestimates this legend IF he jumps round well.

I still make IC a very worthy and "true" favourite though and beleive his 7/2 is a fair reflection of his chances in the GC.

After his win in yesterdays Hennessey should we start to take Kempes as a serious challenger,connections believe him to be a better horse on good ground ,so assuming that is the case we can expect some improvement. Personally i think that at 20s that is fair value and although his previous visit was a poor
effort he made a shocking mistake early on and never traveled after that,as an 8 year old has time on his side and with the old guard on the decline place prospects surely.

Probably the most foolish thing anyone can do is write of Kauto Star. Many wrote Master Minded off as a flash in the pan and almost everyone wrote Denman off after his heart problem.

The King George isn't the first time for some reason Kauto Star has failed to shine. According to Ruby he wasn't quite himself when Denman won the Gold Cup something I find  hard to argue with when you consider he was beaten again 2 weeks later by Old Vic at Aintree.

Next thing you know he bounces back hacks up in the King George and follows that by puting up a breathtaking performance to win the Gold Cup.

A hot fav to win the Gold Cup for the 3rd time it's back to his old ways and decides he'll walk through a couple of fences just for the hell of it.

None of those defeats are as worrying as his latest defeat bit if it was down to a bug and he comes back to Cheltenham at the top of his game , what then?

Can't be running back and telling your bookie it's not fair horses aren't supposed to do that.

I'm certainly not prepared to write of the best chaser since Arkle. Even if he has gone backwards he'd still beat most of those who will turn up if PN can get him their fit and well. 8/1 EW seems like a bet worth taking to me.

As things stand Imperial Commander is a worthy favourite and if Kauto Star has gone he has very little to beat.

Denman no doubt will run his usual good race to a point but then he will run out of petrol when it really matters.

Nick Williams decided to put Diamond Harry away and bring him back for the Gold Cup. If he were mones I would have ran him in the King George and at least knew where I stood because winning the Hennsessy off 10stone is 1 million light years away from winning a Gold Cup. Just imagine if Imperial Commander or Kauto Star had run in tat race off 10stone. Kauto would have lapped them.

Diamond Harry is lovely horse but he's also a very easy horse to upset when taken out of his comfort zone. IMO He'll find the Gold Cup pace way too much to handle and be gone well before the home turn.

Long Run's win in the King George was impressive and he's improved a fair bit this season but Cheltenham's undulations and quick changes of pace upset him big time both in the RSA and in the PP. I think he'll run well but there's way too many question marks against him to be winning a Gold Cup. He's very likely to make bad mistakes, he doesn't find a lot off the bridle and I'm not sure his King George win is good enough form to be taking into a Gold Cup. He beat very little at the end of the day if Kauto Star was indeed a sick horse.

Kempes won't get the trip.

Tidal Bay is a high class horse not only did he win the Arkle but showed just how tough he is bye going to Aintree and winning there two weeks later. Not many horses do that. Some people have taken big odds about him winning the race because there are few horses who would beat him on the run to the line if he's anywhere near at the last. There lies the problem he very seldom is. Watching his last run you can see why people are willing to take the chance but he was so far behind Neptune Collonges after the 3rd last that makes me wonder how far would he be behind the likes of Denman. Imperial Commander and Kauto Star. The gold Cup will be a lot faster run than that race and it's a safe bet Tidal Bay will be so far behind Pegasus, wings and al,l wouldn't be able to make the ground up.

Pandorama is a horse I really like. I wasn't a huge fan of his last season but this year a year on he looks the real deal now he's fully matured.
They say he needs very soft or heavy ground to be seen at his best but he still manged to fend off Weapons Amnesty on yielding. While that form may not be up to Gold Cup standard I think he's improved out of all recognition since then. The way he travelled and quickened in the Lexus in my eyes was as good a performance seen on any side of the water this season.

Pandorama seems to have unlimited stamina and while he may not get soft ground but that doesn't matter so much at Cheltenham as it would at other courses. As long as there is some cut we know he's still capable of winning races and if you add that to the fact Cheltenham is the most stamina sapping course in the coutry I think the Gold Cup even on Good to soft will be right up his street.

Much depends on which Kauto Star turns up but I'm pretty sure the winner will come from a group of 3 horses, Pandorama, Imperial Commander and Kauto Star.

I'd love to see Kauto Star win and I think he could, so I will back him but my main bet will be one of the other 2. Imperial Commander looks the one on paper but the fact he like Long Run ended up not having to beat the real Kauto Star makes him beatable IMO won't be easy but perfectly possible. I'm waiting until NRNB is in full flow and backing Pandorama as I think he has Gold Cup written all over him.

Good read that,and made a lot of sense.Only thing i would argue is Denman,think his being much fresher this year and with ST back on board,will see him run a big race,and could win it.IC has to have a big chance,and more i think about it Kauto has to be backed at the odds.Have to watch Pandorama again as i may be wrong to dismiss him.
I have Denman at 15,and will back Kauto and maybe Pandorama.Will let IC run now,not sure the price is right for me.

Nice write up.
I too think Pandorama has what it takes; too many people write him off as a heavy ground horse, I think he just doesn't want firm!
Between him and IC in my view.

Very good read Rondetto.
Its all about IC for me, but i respect both Denman and Kauto, and think those three are a cut above all of the young pretenders with the exception of Pandorama.
Reckon Denman and KS have very solid place prospects but i do struggle to see either reversing 2010 GC form with IC (if he performs to his peak). On soft ground Pandorama would be very dangerous but he strikes me as a horse with a soft ground action who will dominate winter ground grade ones in ireland for some time to come. Cheltenham in march is very different, and N Meade's record at cheltenham would not inspire confidence....

I think pando likes soft ground over 3 miles on flat tracks because he is less likely to be out paced. The thing with the gold cup is it's over further and will be run at a fast gallop which will suite him down to the ground.

He'll be an excellent ew bet when it's non runner no bet.

I've had him backed since october for this race and will add him again. Kauto at 10/1 is my only other bet.

No really big plays in the race so I can enjoy it more. IC is too short for me to back but is a deserved fav.

Its such an interesting game CV - I'd say we are both quite knowledgeable (feel free to shoot me down!) but have completely different opinions. I'd say that IC is decent value at 4s. Have a big slice (admittedly NRNB with laddies - would not dream of taking NR risk at that sort of price) on the basis that i think (assuming he gets there) he has a much better than 1 in 5 chance of winning. Obviously any material NR's (an obvious possibility though would not wish it on anyone) would only serve to strengthen those chances.
Time will tell - that is what makes it such a fascinating game.

Well yes I suppose you could think that 4s is value. I'd take out myself if he'd proven himself better than Kauto in last years gold cup. But there's that nagging doubt with me.  Denmans runs either side of his gold cup run were not the best and IC's rep is based off beating Denman.

It'd put me off going in at 4s especially given there are a few unexposed improving horses in there too.

Watched Pandorama again in Ireland,impressive and decided 20's currently available is a good price,so he now is on my side along with Denman.Just need Kauto now.
oh and got Tidal Bay and Neptune Collonges at big prices,well you never know!!

Great being able to back basically all the horses at a decent price in the race isn't it?

Pando and Kauto 25/1 and 10/1 are my two bets so far. Will have to get Denman on board too, think he deserves a 2nd Gold Cup. That'll be my lot.

I think I'll absolutely smash into Kauto to place in running after the first circuit. You know if he's beaten after that, if he's tanking then it's hard to see him out of the places if crossing the line given it's never happened before.

Or I could just enjoy it I just don't want Long Run to win, I was a big fan of his until the Paddy Power and now can't really warm to him again.

Yeh,Denman at 15 and Pando at 21,well happy with that,just not sure when to back Kauto,thinking on the day,your opinion on that CV?? price likely to shorten much??
Cannot have Long Run at all at the course and current odds are tight to say the least imo,dont think you have a major concern there mate.
IC just cant be backed at the prices and really his price this season has never been right for me,he is a danger but will take the chance.

I'd take Kauto now nrnb or even ap as he'll shorten all the way to the off. Never has he ever drifted before, he's a public horse and you know Nicholls will get him right and then be super bullish. Lots of not well informed punters will steam in and he'll go off 5/1 even 9/2 possibly.

I was thinking of taking a huge bet at 12/1 on here after the King George and laying it off closer to the day for a free bet. Just took 10/1 with lads instead.

yeh,makes sense that,bound to be the popular choice on the day.Have to do a bit of shopping around.

Hey,CVB,somebody has just had their form franked.

Sorry to hear about Pride of Dulcote .RIP

his form is not in question,well not by me,but his ability to act at cheltenham in a gold cup certainly is!!

Long Run got no credit for a brilliant display at Kempton cos Nicholls spouted the infection excuse.

Nobody talks about Imperial Commander's great display last year in the Gold Cup.

The Nicholls horses weren't right or unlucky etc etc etc. They are making the market for the others so shouldn't complain.

agree with you 100% hussard if i remember rightly " p. nicholls said  kauto has never been better" or words to that effect  day or 2 b4 king george, long run wins well " oh kauto  had an infection and was not right ".................still i cant complain too much keeps the price of long run and others high    d

Going to be some race, ive taken KS at 10/1, reakon he will shorten all the way to the race, ruby back on board, nicholls with some bullish comments and the public will get behind him, can see him goin off 5s or 6s, any one else agree?

Also reakon Kempes has a shout, more from the heart than the head though, will stay the trip, has speed, jumps fences better than hurdles, but he hasnt beat as much as the rest of the contenders, can also see him shortening all the way down, esp with AP on him.

i think youre right, kauto will only shorten but i cant see him winning it tbh

would love to see him win but it does look unlikely, so just lay him off for a free bet and enjoy the race i reakon!

yep... id be laying so that if he loses you profit and if he wins ur break even

"They're not machines..." It's often said by connections after a horse disappoints. So I'm interested by many of the comments on here regarding Imperial Commander, Kauto Star and Denman.
If we look at the form of each of the three since the start of 2009/10 season, you see a pretty inconsistent bunch.

Imperial Commander - Brilliant nse 2nd to KS at Haydock, shocking run in King George, career best effort to win Gold Cup, failed to complete at Aintree, good re-appearance at Haydock, then setback

Kauto Star - Nse defeat of IC at Haydock, brilliant winner of 4th King George, failed to complete in Gold Cup, adequate re-appearance win at Down Royal, outpaced and outstayed in re-arranged King George.

Denman - Won Hennessey off top weight, 2nd to IC in Gold Cup, laughably erratic going right handed at Punchestown, brave effort to give weight all round in Hennessey, although ultimately beaten a long way by Diamond Harry and Burton Port - since undergone breathing op.

If you had all day, you could put up extremely plausible excuses for all the below-par runs. My point is almost not to look at the detail, but "squint" at the pattern. Many people on here are talking about one, two or even all three of these Gold Cup winners as if they just have to turn up to run a massive race. Paul Nicholls and Nigel Twiston-Davies will have thought they had each of them spot-on for all the above races when their stars underperformed, which by my reckoning is verging on 50% of their collective races in the last two years.

You could go back through the records of Diamong Harry, Long Run etc and find disappointments. But neither of them is a former winner of the race, and to judge by some of the comments on here, don't merit consideration until they've actually won one.

Denmanism, I think it's important to not a sick kauto not travelling from the start would have been about 6l ahead of riverside theatre had he not ploughed into the second last. So that win by riverside, though not that great given pride of dulcote died, is  still a good thing from my perspective for kauto.

What is the story with Imperial Commander?

Seen conflicting reports of the gallop at Warwick?

Has he had a setback?

Had a look on the Bobby Dazzler thread but nothing from him on there from what I can see.

No setback bobby said he's fine and all systems go.

I stayed faithful to Long Run last time in the KG having been burnt at cheltenham the last twice. If the stable have found the key to improving his jumping (many autueil specialists tend to brush through the top of fences in this country when they first come over)I believe this might be the transformation of him. Autueil is left handed and I don't see a problem in the direction of his racing. I think the less frantic pace will help him - he never seemed to settle in the ppower.

Would be huge for denman or K Star to regain the GC. KS is on te downturn for me and I see no major reason (breathing op apart) why denman could overturn IC. I'm not convinced at IC's prep this year and he still looked stuffy in his work last week - not value imo.

Diamond Harry a possibility - best fresh but still to prove in jumping consistently (though much better last time). At the price thogh - LR till 13/2 - I'd much rather have this given the quality of it's last form than 8s DH...

The Gold Cup and I can't wait.  Stats not everything but a guide.  Only Best Mate in the last 40 years has won back to back Gold Cups, enough reason for me to rule out IC. Only KS has ever regained the Gold Cup, therefore highly improbable he will do it again or that Denman will do it at all as good as these horses have been.
This all points to a new winner IMO. Long Run has failed the last twice at Cheltenham and surely should have beaten Little Josh in the Paddy Power off his rating then.  Diamond Harry good win in the Hennessy with no weight, so can't really have him infront of Denman at the weights and even more so at Cheltenham. I really like Pandorama, but believe it won't be soft enough and Kempes doesn't look good enough on last run, but could only beat what was infront of him.
Anyway my opinion of the winner and largely forgotten/underated on here is Midnight Chase. Yes he hasn't gone the traditional route, but has improved all season, keeps winning round Cheltenham and reminds me very much of Master Oats who won handicaps on the way to winning the GC. Still a great price with so many question marks around.

CVB, please can you tell us where B Dazzler is writing now as he hasnt been on his antipost thread for a month....thanks

some fool posted last week that imperial was injured and out of the gold cup

dazzler came on and said he was fine and on target

thanks brandy...yeah that was Mayweather and his thred was taken down.

Missed bobbies response though

Yep, Bobby said that Channel 4 were coming to film him and ride him out yesterday. Horse is fine and all systems go. Goes well fesh so no worries about that.

CVB,with 2 miles gone the race caller says,"Kauto Star has always tavelled nicely"(excited tone).With seven to go,"he's on their heels"(excited tone).In my opinion,between jumps 5 and 4 Kauto gives a distressed twitch.I recall at the being 100% confident he was beaten,as soon as that happened.
For me I can't write the King off,just won't be backing him.
As I have stated,I think it's between Imp com and L.Run,they did a very similar job on Nacarat in their last outings,just believe LR's improvement will be greater.

Distressed twitch some nonsense  more like.

Look he's old and on the downgrade. I'd he's beaten it'll be because of that.

CVB,you've got more angles than a dodecahedron. I will leave you to your opinions,see your Nap of the festival has just changed aswell.Poor old Big Zeb,no loyalty left in this game.[;)]

Haha, yeah I should keep my nap the same based on loyalty. Fast track to losing money, my nap is based off what I actually think at the time. Problem with most people is they are intransigent, nail they colours to the mast and never change their opinions after further evidence.

Been round 2 weeks, another blow in, not going to get bogged down with you.

Distressed twitch though, comedy gold.

Dazzlers upto date report on IC is on the "Imperial Commander" thread near the top of the posts.

Personally i'm starting to favour Denman a little more,as Nicholls has been oddly bullish about him,saying he's in very good form indeed.Not sure of the merits of the monor (soft pallete) breathing op in the case of Denman but PN thinks it may help his finishes.PN was very pleased with his recent 2m spin as was Barber.Imo the weight simply caught him up at Newbury though he was slightly laboured over the last fence and run in.He usually maintains a very decent gallop even when v tired(which is ineviatble given his racing style)

Denman (not unlike IC)is not a horse that relishes hard work on the gallops and PN never quite knows what to expect.He'll arrive this year fresher than ever before and technically (his Hennessey) he's still in more or less prime condition.

The Denmania has been very quite this year thank G.

Imperial Commander (4) , Long Run (6) , Denman (33/5) , Kauto Star (7) , Diamond Harry (14) , Kempes (16) , Midnight Chase (20) , Pandorama (20) , Tidal Bay (33) , Neptune Collonges (36) , What A Friend (51) , Weird Al (61) , China Rock (66) , Planet Of Sound (66) , Albertas Run (100) , Great Endeavour (100) , Punchestowns (115) , Carruthers (121) , Riverside Theatre (173) , Synchronised (199)  - Others 250 or more

Don't think Long Run is such a write-off over his Cheltenham performances thus far. In last year's RSA he was just a 5-y-o at the end of a long campaign (including his French runs) then he ran ok in the PP off a big weight over an inadequate distance. Two horses behind him that day finished 1 and 2 in the December Gold Cup.

Sure, he's better at Kempton, but so was  Kauto Star. He was a 10lb better horse at Kempton and he won two Gold Cups.

For me it's all about who is on the rise and who is on the wane. IC has just about few enough miles on the clock to suggest he still has enough in him to win another GC, but Kauto and Denman don't. Long Run is only 6, the future is his.

With another year on his back and another year in SWC's head, they could take this race comfortably.

TBH, the one I'd be watching closely in running is Diamond Harry, to see if he's in the mood. Otherwise, Long Run is the one to be on...unless it pisses down, then Pandorama is in the reckoning

Also Long Run didn't get that big weight allowance that 5-y-o horse historically got in the RSA. What was it? Eight pounds?

DWM767 Posted 08/02/11
...what use is someone posting about Long Run's chance in the Gold Cup! Anyone who knows anything about racing knows he has two chances in the race; slim and no!, it's not overly insightful!
Just interested to know if he stands by that comment before the big day?

Who is that now Denmanism?

who is that now?

That is to say: who is it that you would be interested to see would stand by their opinion come Gold Cup day?

Just wanted to know if DWM767 stood by a previous post he made slating anybody who thought LR had a Vgood chance of winning?

Let's hope does and gives us a nice price on the day

I think I maybe losing the plot, but the closer it gets to the big day the more i'm making a case for Tidal Bay.Fast finishing second behind Imperial Commander in the Betfair,fast finishing second to Neptunes Collonges at HQ in January and who can deny that his beating of Time for Rupert in last seasons cleeve is looking really good.
Very quirky to say the least but his last few runs have been really encouraging and maybe,just maybe, he may be enjoying the game again.Hoping he dosen't get too detached in the early stages because he will definetly be staying on when others have cried enough,and he has a great record around Cheltenham and seems to go on any ground
The current odds seem very attractive and I will be backing TB win and place and E/W


I will get the men in white coats to place the bets for me.

Wasn't going to go in again,was happy with some vvnice AP bets.Though I see Kauto is shortening again,some real sick puppies out there!!

hey giddy, you aint losing the plot.

Its becasue the shhep cant see the wood before the trees.

If punters actually would take 5 mins out to see the class of the horse and the FACT that tidal has never run over this distance and the FACT that this season it can be argued that he would have the best form if being run more handily.

At the end of the day , its quite easy to see that Tidal Bay over the stiff trip of 3m2 and half furlongs on soft ground will beat them all and run to a rating that i believe is going to shock everyone.

Howard Johnson has been very shrewd in the running of Tidal Bay since November, showing his ability without really giving the horse its conditions is going to relish.

I expect to see a kind of run in the same light as Sir Rembrant coming second to best mate approx 5 years ago, the day he should have beaten best mate by staying on, the fact that tidal has the attribute but the pace to beat them will i believe see the idal go close.

horse is ungenuine

imo, of course

P!

well your opinion Reve is the industry opinion .

your comments are absolute bulls***, you are either a bookie or a tabloid reading mug.

Just look at his races ffs, hes never been put into the races, cant you take into account that even if tidal wa sto fluff the second last that he would still stay on past them.

Its right in front of you...the horse is not ungenuine,your only saying that because your told he is and thats just a bULL.  an ungenuine horse does not come a fast finishing 2nd to imperial and neptune at a trip thats too short for it!!!!!  ffs, which bookie pays you to slag every horse in every cheltenham race that got the best chance of winning, i see you posting absolute ****eeee evrywhere

look at your posts and replies stats, it says it all

someone once said that opinions are allowed. you however seem to disagree by calling me all sorts for thinking the horse is ungenuine. would you like to inform me, seeing as you think im wrong and therefore not entitled to my opinion, how markets are formed? thanks

Ungenuine or not, give him another 100 yards in the BF Chase and he'd have beaten the Commander...

RozelKids had a heavey night on the sherry I'd say

GET IN THERE LONG RUN ..........YOU BEUATY ......WHATS THAT COMEING UP THER HILL IS IT A MONSTER YES ITS LONG RUN .....................EBJ